Reflections on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

SteveG wrote: ^ Biden started the war to get reelected? Close thread now please.

Of course he did--  what didn't happen was Putin & Trump agreeing before the '20 election that if Trump loses Putin should invade Ukraine thereby bolstering Trump's chances of winning in '24.

There are about three two conspiracy theories left in the world that aren't complete toxic bullocks.

The people of Poland have had a difficult history with their neighbour Ukraine but their courage, valour and unconditional humanity is extremely praise worthy, with millions of fleeing refugees being fed, clothed and sheltered, as well as hugged and embraced with camaraderie and affection. 

That must be acknowledged. 

A month have passed since the start of the war in Ukraine which has thrown the world into a new phase of relations between nations. What does Russia want and what should we expect for the short and long term future? We talk about it with Professor Giulio Sapelli, economics historian, councilor of the Mattei Foundation, author of numerous essays (most recently "In world history. States markets wars" published by Guerini) and a great expert in geopolitics who in the past had the opportunity to personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin wants the neutralization of Ukraine and wants the Black Sea not to be contested. He therefore needs to control the Donbass and Odessa. He needs it because Russia thinks of itself as a Eurasian power, from the Pacific to that Atlantic lake that is the Mediterranean. He is present in Syria and shares the dominion of Libya after the Italian state was expelled from the country with the assassination of Gaddafi. The invasion of Ukraine is not a rash move, it is consistent with a strategy which, however, is now being applied incorrectly. With the invasion Putin is completely on the side of the wrong but if you want to go down the path of negotiations, the goal of Kiev's neutrality will have to be granted to him.

No, we have to expect difficult years. Putin will not stop and continue to try to destabilize the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. Moscow is trying at the same time to do this and to keep its power over the Mediterranean while trying to keep China good. In perspective I do not believe in an arrival between Moscow and Beijing, on the contrary Siberia has swamps on China, which is now abandoned. We go through a period of instability, dangerous.

I am convinced that Russia is going through an epochal crisis and that the country is headed for an inexorable decline. It is now an underdeveloped country that thrives on the export of raw materials. As for the technologies now completely from abroad, the country that has long been a winner in the space race, today is not even able to depend on a drone alone. So no, it doesn't have the economic strength to do it, that in Ukraine is the move of a desperate country trying to avoid a doomed fate.

But when did you ever get involved in politics with sanctions? They are wrong and they are wrong for the simple fact that, like history teach us, they produce the opposite effect but it is randomly taught that what they strengthen is preferred, the Iranian regime is lampate and many could be cited. Sanctions are established, only to be rushed to Maduro when his oil comes in handy, but what credibility can diplomacy have in this way? Another madness is the sending of weapons to Ukraine. But do you think that once the war is over they will give them back? Do we really want to have people shooting themselves with rocket launchers in the heart of Europe? The one that will not end once. Ukraine has always been a multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic nation, and they have always fought each other. Anyone who reads Gogol understands everything… The US and the EU are doing exactly what they shouldn't do.

NATO should flex its muscles, show that you have an army, deploy it along the borders. The only way to maintain and restore peace is the threat of war.

I see it favorably, as a stabilizing factor. As critical as I am with its economic policies, Germany is a fully democratic country. With the exit of Great Britain from the European Union, Berlin and Paris could shape the first nucleus of what should later become a European army.

Too little emphasis has been given to some initiatives of internal dissidence. The Association of Young Diplomats, pupils of Primakov, the Association of Russian Mathematicians, have both taken positions against the invasion. I know the world of Russian dissidence, they are determined and tenacious people, smarter than those in government. They need to be supported.