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Boris Johnson wins leadership vote; becomes new PM
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Originally posted by AZF AZF wrote:

Whaaaat? The people who think nothing about spunking away serious money on huge box sets of albums they already have are suddenly thinking of leaving the country?
You can't come back. The country is changing but you can only notice the change from afar.
Living amongst it makes it harder to detect.
Even if you leave for a few months, you'll come back and it still won't be the country you recognise.
This is HEALTHY because progression cannot be made with the same things happening.
You run away. I'll still here and fight to protect the NHS.
Think there's problems with the NHS? Do you even live here to use it? Well let's hope it's in some sort of useable state when you return cancerous and unloved moaning about queues of foreign people and the classic "Baht I was bleedin' born 'ere!!".

YOU run. I stay. You may know different time signatures and which bonus track you can hear Ian Anderson scratching his nuts. But it seems at the very first sign of trouble ahead it's brown trousers all around. I know who I'd rather stand with.
 
I was joking.
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Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

^ If you will truly be happier elsewhere, then that's what's important.   It's just until you make that move, you won't know.   But you will miss the place you know in ways you don't fully grasp until it happens.




Of course I won't know but life is short. If I have to take a chance, it's now when I still have enough of my working life left to be regarded valuable by immigration authorities. It's of course easier to make this decision when you are in India, regularly hear of acquaintances making the move, meet relatives who are abroad and happy, so on and so forth. Also helps if you are not a nationalist. Wasn't particularly nationalist at any point but especially now, given what passes for nationalism these days, I mostly find it nauseating and a waste. Just another terrible excuse to divide people to help a wealthy few preserve their position.
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Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

This guy Boris is interesting--  I know little about him to the extent anyone can know a politician, but he does have an air of Bill Clinton 'cool' to him.





I wouldn't have said that. Boris is the oppposite of cool. He's an old school, tory toff; a parody of how most working class people regard conservatives in the UK. Clinton, for all his obvious failings did come across 'cool' and was a far better orator than Johnson.
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We're undergoing a strange political transformation in the UK right now, and Brexit is largely behind that. The rich want to continue avoiding paying their taxes, and they know that being out of Europe is probably going to benefit them in that regard, especially with a tory government in charge. The working class, abandoned by the left - now obsessed with identity politics - just "want their country back!" from the clutches of the evil EU, and they are prepared to sacrifice their jobs, their homes, their children's future, their healhcare, their economic growth AND their national security, to reclaim the sovereignty they actually never lost anyway, but are too stupid to realise it.

The best way to rally the support of stupid people is to present them with simple concepts that don't require statistical validation or analysis, like nationalism. Start waving flags around, and the stupid coming running like well trained dogs.

Edited by Blacksword - July 24 2019 at 03:57
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^^ Yes, the stupid have been galvanized and whipped up by these nationalist/proto-fascist zealots like farage. f**k only knows where this is going to end up, but we now have potentially the worst prime minister we could ever imagine. He has not got a strategic idea in his head, he does not even know what he is going to say when he starts talking, this could go badly wrong!   
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Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

We're undergoing a strange political transformation in the UK right now, and Brexit is largely behind that. The rich want to continue avoiding paying their taxes, and they know that being out of Europe is probably going to benefit them in that regard, especially with a tory government in charge. The working class, abandoned by the left - now obsessed with identity politics - just "want their country back!" from the clutches of the evil EU, and they are prepared to sacrifice their jobs, their homes, their children's future, their healhcare, their economic growth AND their national security, to reclaim the sovereignty they actually never lost anyway, but are too stupid to realise it.

The best way to rally the support of stupid people is to present them with simple concepts that don't require statistical validation or analysis, like nationalism. Start waving flags around, and the stupid coming running like well trained dogs.

Clap  very VERY similar to what have going on here.  Ours here of course is not merely a poltical transformation but one driven by a social transformation here. Though I often joked that Trump was a temporary bedwetting instead of the attempted suicide that is Brexit the long term effects of Trump here might just prove more profound than the likely failure of the Brexit process there.

As I've riffed on repeatedly though.. there is some hope here.  What really is needed in both countries is a big doze of reality and rising about the collective sludge of partisan politics. I think we do have a candidate here for President that can blow up the status quo and turn that slow transformation into a full blown political revolution .. and that is a true appeal to the working class. A dose of reality .. long overdue as to what .. and WHO.. reallly ill them and that will be what this country needs perhaps to break this awful cycle of spinning our tires in the mud and going nowhere that we have been in, and seems like you all are in.
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Originally posted by NutterAlert NutterAlert wrote:

^^ Yes, the stupid have been galvanized and whipped up by these nationalist/proto-fascist zealots like farage. f**k only knows where this is going to end up, but we now have potentially the worst prime minister we could ever imagine. He has not got a strategic idea in his head, he does not even know what he is going to say when he starts talking, this could go badly wrong!   


Yes, it's a genuine 'Nutter alert!"

It seems there is a lot of opposition to a no deal Brexit, so I'm hoping that parliament refuse to allow that to go through. I suspect there'll be a general election by the end of the year, but I think that will only see the tories voted back in.
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^ that was going to be my next post, and while having a smoke, ypu touched on it.

the article I posted yesterday did seem to break things down pretty clear.

the EU is not budging .. nor should it or will it.  The WA is what it is .. take it or stay it.

doesn't seem to be any chance in hell of an about face .. so a negotiated Brexit is likely dead as a door nail

'no deal' ..  not happening. Enough of the ruling class understand it is indeed national suicide to do thus they won't nor will allow Johnson to do so even if he truly believes that is the best way forward. The EU shouldn't push the UK out if Oct. 31st comes around and the UK still has not found a solution. Now what they would do?  I'd be really curious to see what people think they might do.

that leaves 2 solutions.. general elections and/or a 2nd referendum which again Johnson has ruled out but as the article notes..  he may simply have ZERO choice. It sure doesn't seem the Tories will gain a majority without the DUP or the new Brexit Party which again will not allow a negotiated Brexit under what the EU will accept.

a 2nd reforendum? Seems the most likely... but also perhaps the most damaging to Johnson and his ilk.


thoughts from any who know this better than I?
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Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

^ that was going to be my next post, and while having a smoke, ypu touched on it.

the article I posted yesterday did seem to break things down pretty clear.

the EU is not budging .. nor should it or will it.  The WA is what it is .. take it or stay it.

doesn't seem to be any chance in hell of an about face .. so a negotiated Brexit is likely dead as a door nail

'no deal' ..  not happening. Enough of the ruling class understand it is indeed national suicide to do thus they won't nor will allow Johnson to do so even if he truly believes that is the best way forward. The EU shouldn't push the UK out if Oct. 31st comes around and the UK still has not found a solution. Now what they would do?  I'd be really curious to see what people think they might do.

that leaves 2 solutions.. general elections and/or a 2nd referendum which again Johnson has ruled out but as the article notes..  he may simply have ZERO choice. It sure doesn't seem the Tories will gain a majority without the DUP or the new Brexit Party which again will not allow a negotiated Brexit under what the EU will accept.

a 2nd reforendum? Seems the most likely... but also perhaps the most damaging to Johnson and his ilk.


thoughts from any who know this better than I?


The EU need to be strong in the face of Brexit and not give the UK too much ground. If they are seen to be giving us a 'good deal' then that will embolden the Euroskeptics in all the member states, and before you know it, they'll all be holding leave/remain referendums. Under those conditions the union could collapse, and that will have far reaching consequences for the whole world, in terms of economics and security.

As for the US, I think what baffles me the most, is how it can so quickly swing to the far right. From 8 years of Obama mania, to a far right lunatic, barely able to construct a sentence. I've not been a fan of the last 4 or so US presidents, but compared to Trump, Obama was like the second coming. The UK's political decline has happened more slowly over time.

The only thing I'll say for Trump is that he seems less inclined towards foreign military interventions. So far...
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I don't see the EU giving in and not remaining strong per se.  In fact (and perhaps this is what Boris is hoping for since his 4 options have either been closed off, or shut down by himself) there is likely more a chance that the EU pushes them out, via a veto of any kind of post Oct 31st extension. I'm not sure who would do it, or why, Macron made the most noise about holding the UK's feet to the fire and ending this farse one way or the other but from my limited understanding the averse effects of a no deal crash out would affect France the most. So it wouldn't make sense. Perhaps one of the eastern EU nations? Perhaps..  anyhow I think there is more uncertanty as to whether the EU will extend past Oct 31 than there is that they 'give in' and drop the Irish back stop for example.

as far the US... good God man. I've pretty much addressed your bafflement over the hundreds of pages of those threads since Nov 2016.  But a quick summation of your thoughts...

Trump and his election were a fluke..  one that can happen again in 2020.. but a fluke all the same.  The country has not moved rightward (ie the jarring shift you see from Obama to Trump).  Romney got 47% of the popular vote in 2012 and got crushed..  Trump got 46% and won.  What changed was not the country moving right.. but in fact moving LEFT!   The problem .. the fluke as it were. .were not those that voted for Trump.. but the millions of Obama voters that did not vote for Hillary.  In particular the 600 thousand Obama voters in 2012 that Hillary lost in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They didn't vote for Trump, they either sat the election out or voted 3rd party as a protest against both. This leftward shift is part of the political realignment going on here and playing out here.  
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Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

This guy Boris is interesting--  I know little about him to the extent anyone can know a politician, but he does have an air of Bill Clinton 'cool' to him.





I wouldn't have said that. Boris is the oppposite of cool. He's an old school, tory toff; a parody of how most working class people regard conservatives in the UK. Clinton, for all his obvious failings did come across 'cool' and was a far better orator than Johnson.

Yeah, our new PM is really cool. Confused
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Still remember that when Brexit was decided, Bojo was favourite to become PM, but decided not to stand? Instead he let somebody else try to do the messy job that he probably knew he couldn't do. No proper reason for that was given at the time (some said that this was because Gove stabbed him in the back but that's ridiculous - surely he could have won the post without the anyway unpopular Gove as an ally). Actually he did his best to sabotage May while at the same time keeping her in her job (when it came to her Brexit deal, he always voted against her - when it came to her staying as PM, he supported her). 

So now he has the job. What has become better for him since 2016, how has it helped him to first leave the job to May and let her fail? Maybe he thinks that people would be more keen on no deal now that May demonstrated that a deal cannot be done? Or maybe he thinks that he can get some rather cosmetic deal changes out of the EU to sell a slightly updated deal as his own which wouldn't have been accepted before the May disaster? Chances are he hoped that May could get some deal done and he could inherit the PM post from her in post-Brexit Britain without having to do the dirty work himself. This hasn't played out, but I can imagine that he still has a plan - for himself that is. What is it? Any chance for himself to get through this looking reasonably good (I'm not speaking of the country here obviously Wacko)?
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Originally posted by Raff Raff wrote:

...
You must have been very lucky here in the US. As far as I am concerned, my greatest desire is to go back to Europe to spend the last years of my life. I'd rather take past history than anything this country has to offer - which, in my case, has been next to nothing. Your statement sounds alarmingly close to what you can read in the Futurist Manifesto, which I am sure you know quite well.
...

Never heard of it, or read it, believe it or not. I'm strictly independent and will not side with any "political", "social" alliances that are created to provoke people and destroy artists.

All in all, the only history that matters is the one of NOW and what is called HERE AND NOW ... since the past is, supposedly, something that helps you develop a perspective on your own life, which is another illusion for your imagination.

THE ONLY THING that can create any illusion that might affect your perspective, is about the ability that you might, or might not, have to look inside at your dreams and visions ... something that society works hard to ensure that you can not do, so you do not have a connection to the "father" (as it were!!!) ... and thus, confused, you are always at the mercy of idealism's that are ridiculous and malicious in nature.

They are what Arthur C. Clarke called "The Overlords" ... but, sadly, we don't read anymore and worse than that ... we don't care enough anymore, when some mascara and screaming is more important for a thread, than the discussion of valuable music and the arts!
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Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:


LOLClap and a never too early for me Beer 
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Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

This hasn't played out, but I can imagine that he still has a plan - for himself that is. What is it? Any chance for himself to get through this looking reasonably good (I'm not speaking of the country here obviously Wacko)? 
bingo.. and why I think he has boxed himself seemingly into a corner with that one plan in mind. And that likely could be?

To hope or push the EU into doing the dirty work for him and giving him a way out of this mess for himself politically .. a 'no deal' exit.. yet when the sh*t hits the fan. Where can he attempt to lay the blame..  and in that he would be right for them being stupid enough to fold when they hold 5 aces in their hand...

It was the EU's fault.. not mine..
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Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

This hasn't played out, but I can imagine that he still has a plan - for himself that is. What is it? Any chance for himself to get through this looking reasonably good (I'm not speaking of the country here obviously Wacko)? 
bingo.. and why I think he has boxed himself seemingly into a corner with that one plan in mind. And that likely could be?

To hope or push the EU into doing the dirty work for him and giving him a way out of this mess for himself politically .. a 'no deal' exit.. yet when the sh*t hits the fan. Where can he attempt to lay the blame..  and in that he would be right for them being stupid enough to fold when they hold 5 aces in their hand...

It was the EU's fault.. not mine..
I suspect he will blame it all on Teresa May if it all goes t*ts up.
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oh sure he could try I guess... but would it fly?   I doubt it but you know the sentiment there better than I. He is in charge.. not her.. she left and things were left... in flux. Where it goes from here really is completely up to him.. or outside of the EU pushing out the UK.. any blame should and you would think would fall on him.

I'm sure the question has arisen there.. sure has here.. why? Why now did he take this when it could have been his in 2016.  If anything it would have made more sense to have passed now.. than it did then.  I mean he might be a politician.. but that does not make one stupid. They do possess in large part an animal cunning geared to their own political advavncement.. and survival if need be.  I do think there is something to the post earlier.  Boris may well have a plan out of this.. otherwise he would be forced to go back on promises made.. and as often noted.. inject reality into a situation where fantasy still holds large sway.

If the sh*t hits the fan.. blaming May isn't going to save him...  the only real place blame could be laid for economic and systematic collapse would be the EU thus I think he will try to force them to kick the UK out thus .. and rightfully so to be perfectly blunt placing the blame on them... not that it really would matter to most of course .. but again he is a politician..disconnected from our realities in large part...so what happens to the peons is really of little concern in their personal political calculus. 


Edited by micky - July 24 2019 at 09:46
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I agree with micky. It's not that people couldn't wait for him to take over. He is currently only elected by 90,000 Tory members, that's some 0.2% of the country. Some have big hopes, but probably more are appalled and think (rightly) that his role has been largely negative already up to now. As was correctly written in one of the linked articles, he has already made big promises and has severely restricted his space for manoevre. Many are out to eat him alive if he screws up. The only thing I can imagine is that the failure of May can make it easier for him to sell whatever he has on offer (and be it no deal) to an increasingly desperate parliament. But has he anything even remotely convincing to sell? I don't see that. I'm pretty sure he will first try to renegotiate the deal. He won't get much out of the EU but he may get something... we shouldn't forget that a number of EU countries are ruled by people of his kind who may think helping him will be to their own advantage at some point (for example Italy's government is full of EU sceptics and even enemies, there's Poland, Hungary...). Otherwise he'll probably try no deal. Still I don't see anything emerging behind which he can get a majority in parliament.

Oh wait... if he doesn't get one, there may be general elections (which he can blame on others if he doesn't get whatever or no deal through parliament), and he may trust in his campaigning abilities and Corbyn's fading popularity to win an absolute majority or maybe in coalition with the Brexit party. Nothing safe though, he may have already pissed off too many.


Edited by Lewian - July 24 2019 at 10:38
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Thumbs Up  it will be interseting to see what he has up his sleeve.. and perhaps he has a bit of Trump in him and thinks he is some sort of super.. special type that can succeed where he thinks others have failed simply because.. he is special.. or sees himself as such.  I agree he'll like try to negotiate and though I really.. seriously.. doubt the back stop come out perhaps he can some some consessions... but would that be enough.

I really doubt it...  I've read quite a bit of the suspicians of what drives Brexiteer politics and is not simply getting Brexit.  Ie keeping the issue alive is good for them politically... I doubt any kind of WA gets through with the present government.. and that same is not going to allow a instigated 'no deal' withdraw so perhaps again he hopes the EU bails him out and doesn't extend the deadline thus a crashing out which he could rationally spin to blame them.. for not giving him enough time to fix this.  I really can't see the EU doing that. which again brings us to.. where it is at now..  no path forward but the one those in charge don't want..

new elections or a 2nd referendum
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