Brexit: A change of heart?? |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46833 |
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From the little and often outside (US) commentary I have read it didn't seem like it would happen... now at this point... but it is funny how high that drop up when one moves from the edge of a cliff to actually stepping off of it. Last second regrets about committing suicide.. dude... it happens lol.
Chaser didn't mention it as an option.. I was curious if it was the because of the unlikeness of it happening or some reason I wasn't aware of that made it not an option.. like an extension of the withdraw process.
Edited by micky - January 02 2019 at 12:15 |
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Dougie McGee
Forum Newbie Joined: December 23 2018 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 26 |
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Mrs May has shown herself to be something of a sociopath who believes entirely in herself and in no one else. She flatly refuses to listen to advice and is entirely convinced that her crappy deal is the only way forward despite the majority of her own people (both leavers and remainers) voicing loudly that they will not support her on it. She will not fall on her sword in the foreseeable future because she really and truly believes she is leading the country in a spectacular manner. She also can't risk revoking article 50 without serious risk of incurring major trouble on the streets as there would be 17 million VERY unhappy people in the country if she were to do that - we actually have the army on standby here for a number of possible scenarios. I've got my doubts that the UK will actually go so far as to break up, but that said we also have a complete lunatic in charge up in Scotland so I guess anything could happen. Your guess is as good as mine, or anyone elses. As Chaser says : you couldn't make this up. And as for the ferries business...well what can I say....I'm completely bamboozled.
Edited by Dougie McGee - January 02 2019 at 13:42 |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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I agree with Dougie.
Well, firstly the government (Theresa May) cannot decide to revoke article 50. This is because parliament has voted for the UK to leave the European Union. Therefore only parliament can now revoke that decision. Theresa May cannot do it. If it happened it would almost certainly result in actual civil war in the UK. Which is worse? Leaving the EU and being a bit poorer or an all out civil war that would tear the country literally apart? I think we'll be leaving |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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Coming back on this (sorry short post before because I had to go to the pub to discuss.... Brexit! Yes, my god we are obsessed with Brexit in the UK and god only knows what we're going to talk about when it's all over.... If it ever is)
So, Theresa May. Well, she already has fallen on her sword in that she's agreed that she will not be the Tory leader at the next election (i.e. she will stand down as Prime Minister) She wanted her legacy to be reforming the National Health Service, or some such thing, but, anyway, that's irrelevant because her legacy will be BREXIT! And I don't think history will be too kind to her either. Whilst everyone admires her fortitude, I mean she keeps getting punched but keeps geting up and carrying on, her deal is terrible and she has proved to be a poor negotiator. She should have prepared for a no deal Brexit from the start which would have put us in a stronger negotiating position, but while she said "no deal is better than a bad deal" everyone knew she meant "any deal is better than no deal" She will not try to revoke article 50, even if she could, because the ramifications would be enormous. Everyone is playing a game at the moment. The EU's gameis to leave the UK with a choice between accepting the May deal, which means remaining in the EU in perpetuity but with no say over anything, or crashing out with no deal. The EU are gambling that the UK won't jump off the cliff, but they may have miscalculated. I think we might jump. |
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20239 |
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How on earth do you figure that??
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siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic Joined: October 05 2013 Location: SFcaUsA Status: Offline Points: 15242 |
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LOL, every time this topic shows up i'm reminded of this song for some reason.
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https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy |
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Dougie McGee
Forum Newbie Joined: December 23 2018 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 26 |
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I can see Chasers point although personally I don't think the Brits have it in them to go as far as civil war in their own country. If article 50 was revoked it might be reasonable to expect trouble on the streets, which in turn might give rise to some kind of domestic terrorism - I don't know, I'm only speculating, but you know as well as I do the strength of feeling about this and it would be short sighted in the extreme to underestimate the possible consequences of a few elitists in Parliament denying a democratic decision which has been made by millions of people, and which was promised to be acted on accordingly by a government who in it's own arrogance went ahead with a referendum it was convinced it could never lose. The simple truth is that no one knows what lies ahead, and as a friend of mine always likes to remind me : 'anything could happen'. Governments and rulers have been forcibly removed in the past by an angry population on many occasions, and the likelihood of that happening in Britain, however seemingly remote, should not be casually discarded as an impossibility.
Edited by Dougie McGee - January 04 2019 at 11:10 |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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Well, look, I'm not saying I expect a civil war in that scenario, but I do think it is within the range of possibilities. The government themselves have said that unilaterally overturning the referendum result could unleash dangerous forces in the UK. Of course they don't use words like "civil war" and I wouldn't expect them to. However, the idea that the government could unilaterally revoke the decision to leave the EU and 17.5 million people would just say "ok, we accept that and we'll just carry on as normal" is, I think, extremely naive. There would, I expect, be mass demonstrations on the streets (by both sides) and the situation would become highly volatile and unpredictable, which is why I say that it is not possible to be certain where it would lead. It would be a very dangerous situation for our country to be in. |
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someone_else
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: May 02 2008 Location: Going Bananas Status: Offline Points: 24294 |
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I have the same thing with this one: |
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siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic Joined: October 05 2013 Location: SFcaUsA Status: Offline Points: 15242 |
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^ more appropriate for the site. I even own that album!
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https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy |
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Davesax1965
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The last civil war in the UK was 500 years ago. The country has been through several rough times in the interim (including two world wars) without any sign of massive internal strife. Never happen.
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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Well I don't think the UK has been this divided in a very long time. Certainly not in living memory. The world wars united the country against an external enemy, but this has split the country internally between different age groups, social classes, UK countries and ethnic groups. The good news is that, in my experience, leavers and remainers are able to talk through the issues together without animosity, so that bodes well. I hope you're right. What I do think is that if the government attempted to cancel Brexit then what little faith the ordinary people of our country have left in democracy would be gone forever. |
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LAM-SGC
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 26 2018 Location: se Status: Offline Points: 1544 |
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Talk of civil war is without grounds. The country was just as bitterly divided on going into the EEC in the early 70s.
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Chaser
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Yes, but there was a decisive result in the 1975 referendum - 67% Yes to 33% No In this referendum neither side has achieved a decisive victory, and there has been no decisive movement one way or the other since, therefore we are left in political limbo. |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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[QUOTE=siLLy puPPy]LOL, every time this topic shows up i'm reminded of this song for some reason.
For me it's this one by Bernard Butler: |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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Well, for anyone who's not a BOB (Bored Of Brexit) it's maybe time for an update on where we are with Brexit, as crunch time approaches.
My expectation (and hope) is that the Theresa May deal will be rejected by Parliament tomorrow. Following that we will have, I expect, a no confidence motion in the government put forward by Jeremy Corbyn, which I expect to be defeated. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, and, even the Tory Brexiteers don't want to see a Jeremy Corbyn government So, our lame duck government will limp on. What next? Theresa May will go to Brussels to plead for more, but the door will be firmly slammed in her face (again) Meanwhile MP's in parliament will do their best to put in legislation that prevents a "hard Brexit". I expect Theresa May to then go to Brussels and plead for more time, and Brussels will agree to kick the can down the road for a few more months. The saga continues.....
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46833 |
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you hopefully have a better read on this than I do.. for I sure as hell don't seee the EU backing down.
Mainly for the reason.. what difference will a couple of months make. Perhaps.. PERHAPS if there was any sign that there was any kind of chance that the brokered separation agreement plus or minus a few tweaks can get approval in the UK Parliament..
Edited by micky - January 14 2019 at 07:59 |
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Chaser
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 18 2018 Location: Nottingham Status: Offline Points: 1202 |
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I didn't see them backing down, but now I think they might (in terms of extending the Article 50 process, not anything else)
The key point is that there are elections to the European Parliament across Europe in May At the same time there has been a big rise in anti-EU and far right parties across Europe. The EU is worried that the far right is going to win big in the May elections. If the EU refuses to grant the UK an extension and forces it to crash out with no deal, which will hurt economies across Europe, how will that play out with populist voters in the EU? Will they blame the UK, or (more likely) will they blame the EU for its intransigence? And will they then punish the EU at the polls? Something for the EU to think about I think |
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rogerthat
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I agree that ideally the EU should think about it. But the way things have played out suggests to me that EU is more concerned with projecting power and maintaining its position and sees accommodation as a loss of face (this happened with Greece too). Which brings me to...if they think a UK crash and burn will be the same as Greece (i.e self inflicted wounds for the exiting country with no impact on the EU), they are very much mistaken. London is a major financial center for the EU as well and not just UK, so the contagion will spread. The all round insistence on stubbornly maintaining positions and daring the other to blink first that I see everywhere is worrying (we have Trump with the shutdown for another example). This is how WWI happened. Yes, we may not have outright war, but the world's leaders are putting us on a path of economic devastation due to similar delusions of grandeur as those that created the conditions for WWI.
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micky
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no doubt...and I'm quite sure a lot of thought has gone into this on the EU side... but for many of those reasons one can see the EU (has and is) playing hardball with the U.K.
I do think the complete f**kery that is plainly on display out of the UK on how they have handled this will likely not lead the EU to extend any deadline. Again.. if there was any hope that it might make a difference.. then yeah. One could see it, but otherwise.. it is just delaying the enitable. The UK will have the binary choice.. crash out.. and burn... or revoke Art. 50 and perhaps come back later once there is a political will to stomach some unpleasant realties that leaving will entail.
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