We can argue about the economics until we're blue in the face but, ultimately, for me, it comes down to how happy we are as a nation.

 

My feeling has always been that, as a nation, we're just not happy being part of this thing, so we just leave and be independent and happy.

 

If we stay in then the whole interminable debate will rumble on and on forever, and I think we need to deal with it once and for all and then move on as a nation.

Well, then, as somebody working for a company that owns a renowned British brand now facing severe headwinds from the combined effect of Brexit, slowing China growth and the trade war, I think it is an economic disaster in the short run.  As for the long run, I recall the Keynes quote about all of us being dead in the long run anyway.  With that said, I have never visited UK and have no idea what could have driven the Brexit.  I can say, on the other hand, that I visited the town of Niagara in 2014, found the people to be very unhappy and wasn't surprised to see Niagara county flip massively for Trump, nor particularly surprised with the Trump verdict.  That is, perhaps the working class' misery is so deep that they are prepared to gamble if only to actually make the politicians work for a change.  Unfortunately, that's not how the script seems to have played out from a distance (then again, I could be completely wrong) and I am stunned to see that we are hurtling towards a no deal Brexit.  I am not sure the EU can handle the double whammy of a no deal Brexit plus an Italian default and on their part, they ought to shake off their hubris and try to reach an amicable settlement with the UK.

The weirdest part is that in a "world economy" where people must share everything in order to be able to sell it, and get more out of it, a country getting out of it, is going to find itself ... SOL. Their prices will rise and no one will buy it, not to mention that England/Britain do not exactly light up the trade world with their resources! English Coffee? Ohhh wait ... English Tea ... that will make the Plutonians really happy!

Oh wait ... forgot ... they will create more versions of "progressive" anything and then try selling it!

You do know that the BBC is the worst at selling stuff all over the world, right? Even their version of Amazon does not take American Credit Cards ... the verification's fail.

And you're counting on an economy that finds ways not to sell, succeed?

Weird!

I kinda think that their campaigns resembled the stuff that a certain president is pulling off on the media and the people, in general. You confuse them so badly, that when the public needs to vote left to show change, they vote ... nowhere ... to show no change, or not enough change to make a point.

I'm not sure, in general, that the "public" can make a determination on something they are not sure about, and are not told information as to what it really is. And the confusing way of getting "information" out on the subject is the part that scares me the most ... like saying the royals are saints, and they are the most evil in history, with a lot of acts to pervert the truth and get something done. But now, they can live in squalor, waste public moneys ... and no one says anything ... because we love the show and the pictures! They are so colorful and pretty!

Worst movie Kubrick never made!

 

We are going to get what I always thought we would get:  BRINO (Brexit In Name Only)

 

So, we are effectively going to Remain anyway, whatever the people voted for.

I voted to remain, but who knows what is going to happen now.  

So depressing that the media is in full on meltdown over Brexit, whipping the masses up as ever, apparently our food supply chains are going to collapse now so we better get on with panic buying food (Year 2K all over again)

 

What we have now is a total capitulation by the UK government.

 

I was always of the view that we should either be 100% in or 100% out.

 

This "half way house" position is the absolute worst of all worlds.

 

Whether you're Leave or Remain you cannot say that what Theresa May is proposing is Brexit in any shape or form.

 

The voters have been deceived, and our once proud country has been utterly humiliated.

 

I would rather crash out with no deal, whatever the disruption that causes, than accept this utter humiliation and embarrassment of a "deal".  A deal that leaves us in the EU but in a worse position than we are now.  Still accepting free movement of people, still in the customs union so we cannot enter into trade agreements with other countries, and still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

 

A vassal state, accepting EC rules, but with no say in their formation, and tied to this arrangement potentially in perpetuity.

 

I feel ashamed to be British.

Well worth the listen. I'm no expert on the subject but try to tackle many interesting perspectives by scholarly folk.

http://soundcloud.com/guns-and-butter-1/behind-the-brexit-the-british-oligarchys-deal-with-china-webster-griffin-tarpley-349" rel="nofollow - https://soundcloud.com/guns-and-butter-1/behind-the-brexit-the-british-oligarchys-deal-with-china-webster-griffin-tarpley-349

All this is saying is that the press and politicians have been at a dis-information convention for so long, that no one knows or understands what it is all about.

It is, OBVIOUS, why some Britts would not want to be in there ... easy ... very easy ... the upper class wants the trade controls so they can profit from it ... and take the money for their lavish affairs that their newspapers make them look like they are so cool, using tax money ... nothing like even more "fake news", about someone's colored bra!

An European union as is right now, is a threat to the control of the rich, by the rich, for the rich ... and no one else, because a group of folks "decides" where the money goes when their part arrives. And this is the real battle that is going on in England ... they are trying to hide this fact amidst some of the worst comments and information I have ever seen. Even Trump isn't that bad!

To stay or leave the EU seems a no-win situation in either case. On the one hand, I can understand the desire for self-determination, unfettered by what may be construed as foreign interference; on the other, as I said, I am not sure the reason for leaving is altogether healthy, what with the scepter of fascism shadowing much of Europe. I have no solution. I wish you luck.

At least our mistake is temporary.. they'll have to live with that one.  Not helped at all by the leaders there wanting to cherry pick as they leave.. take what they like from EU membership but not take what they don't.

No real dog in the fight.. but sort of happy and hoping the EU continues to play hardball with the UK. They wanted out.. fine.. get out... but you don't get to get the benefits you enjoyed previously out the door with you.

Personally it seems to me lmuch of drove Brexit was .. surprise surprise by the open borders aspect of it and ethnic/nationalistic fears  issues more than any economic self determination.  

 

Ok, I listened to this.  The guy has some interesting things to say, but he would never get away with this commentary in the UK because a lot of the things he says are just plain wrong.

 

He says that Scotland is the poorest part of the UK and the further north you go the poorer it gets!  Wrong!  Aberdeen in the north of Scotland is one of the wealthiest cities in the UK due to all of the oil revenue from the off shore oil industry.

 

He then claims that Britain keeps Northern Ireland in the UK by force, using the British Army, against the will of the local population!  Wrong!  The population of Northern Ireland is predominantly Unionist (they are descended from (often) Scottish settlers who were sent to Northern Ireland in the seventeenth century.  They are strongly pro British and want to remain part of the UK, rather than become part of the Irish Republic.  They are not being kept in the UK by British force.

 

I find his claim that Britain has forged a secret alliance with China to unseat the USA as the dominant world power to be a ridiculous suggestion.  His only evidence for this claim is that Xi Jinping visited the UK in 2015.  The UK was sucking up to China because, after the Brexit vote, they need to generate as much trade with countries outside the EU as possible.

 

It's good to get a foreign perspective on Brexit.  We get too caught up in the UK Brexit bubble I think, but this guy needs to do some more homework before his next Brexit talk.

Correction .... "over British money."

Well one could joke about something else, but it's not worth it!

 

Of course, one inevitably leads to the other

 

What happens after that?  No-one wants a "hard Brexit", especially as the UK government has done nothing to prepare for it. 

 

What about a second referendum?  Surely we can't go back to the people and ask them the same question twice?  What does that say about our democracy?

 

Is there another option?  Could we join EFTA instead, along with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland?

 

The Icelandic minister was very positive about the idea on the BBC's "Newsnight" programme last week, and the suggestion is that the proposal could gain parliamentary support.

 

Whatever we do we need to break the current impasse.  We can't go on like this.

 

 

 

Undoubtedly true for some people sadly, but it's also about leaving a corrupt and unnecessarily beaurocratic organisation.

 

Certainly immigration was an overriding issue for many voters, but, as far as I can see, we are going to get free movement of people in any case.

 

The May "deal" ties us into the EU potentially in perpetuity with no say over any regulations and accepting all of the four freedoms, including free movement of people, until such time as the EU agrees that we can get out of it, and how likely are they to do that?

 

A commentator that I have much respect for, Mervyn King, the ex governor of the Bank of England, has written an excellent article for Bloomberg, which I strongly urge you to read if you haven't read it.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/mervyn-king-says-may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-betrayal" rel="nofollow - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/mervyn-king-says-may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-betrayal

 

Mervyn King supported Leave, but he is very moderate, level headed and balanced in his views and, for me, he talks a great deal of sense.

 

 

While we stand of the cusp of chaos led by bloody emperors who have no f**king idea what they are doing, history would cross its legs and not let any of this rabble near its skirt, luckily we are missing the real story from COP24 that we are wantonly destroying the environment. When will these morons face the real challenge and work as a team together to deal with the biggest challenge our destructive, selfish, and spiteful little species has wrought on this planet. 

The thing that scares me the most is the amount of misinformation going around and then expect people to vote for something they do not know about, or understand.

Interesting comment about RM earlier, and the first thought I had was ... he just wants to monopolize the economy for his own benefit ... not for any worthwhile political reason or idea. And since it is HIS MEDIA, nothing is said or stated that is incorrect, or bad, to make him look weak and not worth the idea ... thus, adding to the confusion of the whole thing.

But, if things continue with folks like RM gaining more and more strength, in the end, the monarchy will be set aside as secondary and its budget cut up, so he can gain more from it all. It will become a different monarchy at that time ... and for crying out loud, maybe that is what we need ... I'm so tired of the other two gaddabouts and their adventures and pictures on the papers! Feels just like the Brexit stuff ... give them those beautiful pictures and they will forget to vote!

Or as a guy that became president in America ... the line that made me quit ... "let them smoke dope, and I will win all the elections!". Same thing here ... giving the public the cheapest dope and make them think it's important and then making changes on the sly that we have no idea what these are all about ... England and many other countries in Europe do not have an "immigration" issue per se, except in a couple of places where Easterners are wanting to get out of the Middle East, which is a serious enough issue ... but towards Western Europe this is less of a problem, though all of a sudden a pocket of some marginal this or that decides they don't want any long eared Venusians around! 

What else is new? Europe killed millions of those for years in the name of a religion alone!

 

I think we are very much caught up in a Brexit bubble here in the UK and it's nice to break out and get a perspective from outside the bubble every now and then.

 

The position is not really that different in the UK, in that those politicians who support Brexit tend to be either on the right wing or the left wing of politics.

 

The right wing dislikes the EU because it reduces national sovereignty, and the left wing dislikes the EU because of the EU's democratic deficit, and, (in the case of Jeremy Corbyn) because of the perception that EU rules would curtail some of his ambitions to nationalise and provide state aid to British industry.

 

The irony is that the majority of British MP's in parliament are against the UK leaving the EU, but are having to vote against their own judgement because the British people have given them an instruction to leave.

 

In a democracy do the people have the democratic right to make bad decisions?

 

Of course, I am assuming that Brexit is a bad decision (in reality I think that the jury is very much out on that question, and we may never know the answer if we end up with a "soft" Brexit, or no Brexit at all)

 

I think that, logically, in a democracy, people must have the democratic right to make a bad decision, or there is no democracy.

 

This is where I think many ordinary British voters take issue with the EU when the EU instructs populations who vote against it to go back and vote again until they get it right (witness Ireland and Denmark).

 

The EU believes that the will of an "enlightened" elite should always overrule the democratic will of a people.

Interesting discussion so if I might presume to add my own tuppence worth ..

I can't vote in the poll above but for the record I voted to leave and haven't changed my mind.

Here's a short 3 minute video clip which provides a small but nonetheless indisputable example of how YOUR hard earned cash in the form of taxes is being used by the EU : Please watch it in full and enjoy..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJsrJUuonkM

Secondly I have a couple of questions :

1. If the EU is such a wonderful entity as I'm continually told it is, could someone please enlighten me as to why so many of it's member states exist on the verge of bankruptcy and are apparently forced to remain in such a condition due to financial policy largely dictated by Germany..?

2. Again, If the EU is such a wonderful entity as I'm continually told it is, then why do so many of it's working age people want to come to Britain rather than stay at home..?   both professionals and lesser skilled individuals..?

3. Same question as number 2 for the plethora of EU low life we seem to attract here in Blighty ; Roma beggars, Eastern European gangsters, people traffickers, arms dealers, drug dealers, health tourists, general scroungers and other professional or opportunist criminals...?

4. And finally - and this is the one that really gets me at the moment - If the EU is so amazing then why do all these so called "poor, desperate"   and IMO entirely fake 3rd world refugees want to come to Britain, who in their own words "would rather die at sea than remain in France for one more day" ..?  (I call them fake because they have already travelled through several 1st world designated safe countries to reach us here at the end of the line thereby defying the criteria of the Dublin Convention)

And re 4 above as an added little titbit :  why does our own government blatantly collude with others, acting openly against the interests of the country and against the wishes of the majority of the population..? 

EU issues notwithstanding, the best example I can think of this was (is..?)  the "unaccompanied minors" scam, many of whom turned out to be fully grown men over 21 years of age, 6 ft tall, bearded, and for the most part uneducated and with zero useable skills. You may remember that these migrants were brought in to the country under the most suspicious of circumstances, and kept concealed behind large screens so that none of us plebs could actually see them arriving.

All suggestions and ideas welcome.

migrants = human beings. sick of all the xenophobic bollocks in this country.

Is that you answering my post..?    Because if it is it really isn't much of an answer.

I could of course respond in kind with an ad hominem riposte equal to or in stronger terms than your own, and frankly yours is pretty much the kind of answer I expected to get, ie no answer at all but just a cheap insult.  However I asked some genuine questions - all of which are backed up by a wealth of evidence available to all, and I stand by them, so if you could switch your brain on for just a moment maybe you could address them instead of just chucking a moronic insult into the ring..

So how about it..?

PS if your answer wasn't directed at me then I apologise for kicking off.

Maybe you should start apologising then, as it has nothing to do with you! if I was going to quote you I would have done so and left you in no doubt!!! 

since you ask I am sick of people like conservative MP for Dover talking about migrants coming across the channel  "strolling into this country" when people are being ripped off and risking their lives to get to a country that wants nothing to do with them. There are no easy answers to any of this but I am sick of the xenophobes, many of them appear to come from the families who over history have stomped around the globe building empires and filling their own pockets.

 

Hi Dougie!

 

Well, I will respond directly to your post, and, firstly, I should say welcome to the forum! 

 

I guess I should just let you know my position on Brexit first:  I voted "Remain", essentially because I thought that the process of leaving the EU would be very painful and that the benefits of leaving (if there are benefits) were unclear and would probably take a long time to come through.

 

However, I did not vote "Remain" because I have any love for the EU.  I do not.

 

I'm not sure that your clip outraged me too much.  This sort of hospitality is common at diplomatic events, and it didn't appear excessively lavish to me.

 

However, I do view the EU as a "gravy train" for many and a colossal waste of money (as it spends £150 million a year moving all the MEP's from Brussels to Strasbourg every month to vote, just because that was how they drew up the treaty and no-one wants to change it).

 

So, taking your points in turn:

 

Point 1:  The introduction of the Euro was a disaster for many EU countries and has been the cause of huge problems throughout the eurozone.  Having monetary union (a single currency) without fiscal union (a single European government that decides tax and spending policies) is completely unworkable and means that, without full political union, the European project is now doomed to inevitable failure.

 

The perfect example of this was Greece.  After joining the Euro, Greece was able to borrow money at rates it would never have been able to obtain with the drachma.  Greece then went on a spending spree with all the borrowed money, massively expanding its public sector because the Greek government controlled Greek tax and spending policies.  It's well known that Greeks don't pay tax and Greece was therefore simply borrowing more money to service the debt.  The result was inevitable bankruptcy for Greece when it was clear that it could no longer afford to service the debt.  Only German money now keeps Greece afloat, meaning that Greece has to do whatever Germany wants.

 

The Republic of Ireland went on a similar spending spree, and built hundreds of thousands of houses, when it only has a population of 4 million.  When the financial crash happened it became clear that the houses would never be sold and the banks who had financed them went bust and were only bailed out by the EU.  The Republic of Ireland is now in debt to the EU to the tune of 200 billion euros.

 

Similarly, entering the Euro has been disastrous for countries like Italy, Spain, and Portugal.  Because they no longer set their own interest rates they cannot respond when their economies get into trouble and borrowing costs have become so high that they have also had to go to the ECB for help.

 

Spain has a youth unemployment rate of 35% and many of those have never had a job. 

 

The Italian banks are on the verge of collapse, Germany is now in recession, and France is in revolt with almost daily protests on the streets.

 

This is the price of European integration and the great European dream of "ever closer union" (more like a nightmare as far as I am concerned)

 

The only real question is:  which will happen first - the UK leaving the EU or the EU collapsing?

 

 

2.  Well, I think point 1 above answers your question here.  They don't have jobs at home.

 

 

3.  I think it's fair to say that we have plenty of our own home grown "low life" in the UK, so I'm not sure we're in a position to look down our noses at people from other countries.

 

However, I think it's fair to say that Tony Blair made a major error in lifting visa restrictions for Romanians when Romania joined the EU.  Blair thought that not many Romanians would come to the UK.  In the event 413,000 arrived in 2015 alone and this did fuel discontent in the UK population.

 

Many Romanians are good hard working people, and I don't like stereotyping a nation, however, I think it's fair to say that there are significant criminal elements in the Romanian migrant population, and, like any criminal, they will go where the pickings are richest (i.e. the streets of the UK)

 

I support immigration to our country, but I think that we should be able to decide who we want and who we don't want, and it should not be the EU that decides.

 

In addition I want the UK to be able to choose migrants from anywhere in the world and not be forced to favour migrants from the EU.  At the moment EU migrants can come to the UK to work whenever they want to under the free movement rules, but migrants from outside the EU have to go through a visa process, thus favouring EU migrants.

 

We need immigrants and anyone that thinks that we don't is seriously deluded about the requirements to run a modern economy.  However, we should be the ones that control the system, it should not be controlled by others who do not live in our country.

 

 

4.  Non-EU migrants wanting to come to the UK.

 

Well, many of these people are quite poor and they deserve to be treated with humanity and respect.

 

However, most of them are economic migrants and not political refugees.

 

The reasons that they want to come to the UK are, firstly, we have high levels of employment and it's easy for them to find work, even if it's in the "black" economy.

 

In France it's very difficult for them to get work or benefits of any kind.

 

Many of them already have family or friends in the UK, so it makes it easier for them to start a new life in the UK.

 

In addition English is a very widely spoken language and many of the migrants speak English, which makes the UK a more attractive destination for them.

 

However, much as I have sympathy for many of these people, they cannot just walk into a country because they want to.  There are rules and regulations about migration which everyone has to adhere to.

 

If I turned up in a boat in Canada, or the USA, or Australia, or virtually any other country, and said I was here to stay but I had no work visa or entry permit, I would, quite rightly, be put on a boat straight back to the UK.

 

Rules are rules and economic migrants, however poor they may be, have to go through the proper procedures if they want to emigrate to the UK.  Anything else invites utter chaos and is highly unfair on those migrants who have gone through the proper process in order to emigrate to the UK.

 

However, I don't think we can really blame the EU for this particular problem, except to the extent that the EU is currently incapable of effectively policing its external borders.

 

 

Hope the above provides some sort of response to your post.

 

In any case I would like to take the opportunity to wish Leavers and Remainers across the UK, and people from anywhere else in the world, a very happy new year!

 

 

 

 

Hi Chaser,

Thank you for a superb response - one of the best and most eloquently informed I've ever had on a forum.

The aim of the little video clip was to highlight Junckers innebriated condition at the event rather than the event itself, although clearly this kind of thing is a blatant finger up at the masses who have to pay for it.

My questions were all written with the utmost cynicism in mind and I understand clearly most of the points you made, particularly about the Euro, which should have been always obvious to a blind man from the outset given the range of difference in the EU economies and country by country work ethic.

There is an argument against immigration by professionals from the likes of Romania and the poorer EU countries as well as from the 3rd world countries which I strongly support, and that is simply that by coming to us they deny their services to those in their own countries who arguably need them more than we do, and especially as they are positively encouraged to come here rather than us training up our own people to work in industries where there is a shortage of skills.

I would also point out that the Roma I refer to are not ethnic Romanian. The majority of their ethnic group is based in Romania but they also exist in smaller groups throughout Europe and have done for some considerable time - hundreds of years in fact.  In Romania they are universally despised by the ethnic Romanians for their lack of integration, generally anti-social behaviour and high criminal tendencies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2336124/locals-blast-crime-hit-sheffield-ghetto-where-6000-eastern-european-immigrants-have-settled-since-2012/

I would also support a sensible immigration policy to the UK but absolutely do not support the madness we have endured since Blair came to power and which shows no sign of changing anytime soon, and while I agree with your comment regarding our seemingly increasing numbers of homegrown lowlife, that in itself is surely the single most important reason as to why we shouldn't be importing even more of them..

The non EU migrants problem is obviously a sensitive issue as some are, or were undoubtedly genuine refugees according to the terms of definition given in the Dublin convention, but the Dublin Convention which has supposedly been agreed on an EU wide basis states clearly that asylum should be sought in the first safe country, and while I understand that that rule will not always be practicable, desireable or enforceable, and even blatantly flouted as in Merkels case of "Wir können das schaffen" in 2015, it nonetheless begs the question of why bother to pass such laws and agreements if certain people who have the power to do so will unilaterally interpret them to suit themselves as and when they choose.

I also feel strongly that 3rd world immigration of this sort to the UK is actually an EU problem in part as the EU is clearly being used as a"back door" by illegals for entry in to the UK.

Anyway, thanks again for a great response and I hope you have an enjoyable New Year.

 

The aim of the little video clip was to highlight Junckers innebriated condition at the event rather than the event itself, although clearly this kind of thing is a blatant finger up at the masses who have to pay for it.

Thanks for the kind words Dougie.

 

Yes, I saw that Mr Juncker was unsteady on his feet in the video, but I was sure if it was intoxication or whether he was just feeling unwell, so I didn't presume.  He is, of course, known to be partial to a wee drink and a smoke and so, I would imagine, the opportunity for him to imbibe at the expense of EU citizens is a real boon to him.

 

Profligacy and waste are at the heart of the EU, as evidenced by the fact that the EU's Court of Auditors refused to sign off the EU accounts for over 22 years and the auditors continue to highlight waste and mismanagement.

 

Meanwhile the EU's policies are leading to mass unemployment, riots, and the rise of right wing extremists across Europe.

 

As for Tony Blair, I find his campaign for a "People's Vote" (didn't we have one of those?) rather comical, since his policies were part of the reason we find ourselves in this situation.

 

His open door policy to Romanian migrants, when he could have put restrictions on Romanian immigration to the UK, fuelled discontent in the UK (albeit many of these immigrants arrived after Tony Blair's time in office, but it was his policy that gave the green light to the flood of migrants that later arrived).

 

Secondly, his government's profligate public spending (remember the outgoing treasury minister's comment that "there's no money") lead, at least in part, to the austerity regime that resulted in huge dissatisfaction with the status quo.

 

Thirdly, Tony Blair's political "spin" and particularly the Iraq war which he justified with the "dodgy dossier" seriously eroded the public's trust in politicians and resulted in them distrusting the recommendations of main stream politicians during the referendum campaign.

 

Yes indeed to all you say.

Re Tony Blair : surely one of the most evil men in modern politics.  Despised by the majority of voters and seemingly quite oblivious to the scale of damage he has inflicted on both our own country and on Iraq.

We can also thank him for playing a large part in the rise of Isis.

If you haven't already read it, I can recommend Clarissa Dickson Wrights biography. She makes a few interesting observations about Tony Blair based on personal experience.

Maybe one day he will get his rightfully deserved just desserts - we can only hope.

Anyway. Cheers again.  Great to talk to someone who actually has something worthwhile to say..  :)

 This is not my own political view, this is just an explanation of what certain words mean and how governments apply them, don't shoot the messenger:  A refugee granted refuge in a safe country ceases to be a refugee when they then leave the country that granted them refuge to move to another country, at that point they become a migrant. The term economic migrant used to be used before to differentiate between migrants and refugees. 

No one is going to shoot you down for that mate. It's a universally acknowledged definition and only denied by the plethora of supposedly enlightened useful idiots across the board and in certain areas of politics and the entertainment industry.

read an interesting article about the times we are in ... and yes.. the very relation between the 3 crashes going on. Any thoughts from the UK'rs here?

http://www.politico.eu/article/ken-clarke-interview-brexit-populism-tories/" rel="nofollow - http://www.politico.eu/article/ken-clarke-interview-brexit-populism-tories/

a lot of very good points there.. especially with what may happen here with the other shoe dropping in reaction to Trump.  A 180 degree swing from right wing populism to left wing populism both of which as Trump has done to his party..and what I have sort of foreseen happening to the Democratic Party.. destroys the established parties.

His points though are very spot on IMO. While it is fun to point fingers and launch internet/social media zingers calling Trump voter/Brexiteer's racists and bigots and white identity politics.. the real onus behind the surge in right wing nationalism is the vast chasm in between haves and have nots due to unregulated captialism.. which is what I think the next the decade is going to see here in the states which the rise of left wing populism here which will tear apart the Democratic Party as much as Trump and the right wing populists tore apart the Repubican party.

very very fascinating to see what happening the next couple of months in the UK.. and beyond...

Personally I don't put much scope in much of anything Ken Clarke says as he's widely regarded as just another raving loony in this country very much like his mate Anna Soubry and a few other notables.

EU issues notwithstanding, I guess one of the bottom lines in all of this is the question as to why so many people are so very pissed off with their respective governments both here, in the States and in France.  I mean, if the governments of these countries were getting it right every time, then everyone would be walking about smiling wouldn't they, but they're not are they. And the argument holds water for both left and right wing view points...Bush and Blair destroyed Iraq and helped with the birth of Isis. Cameron, Obama and Sarkozy destroyed Libya and helped to give birth to the mediterranean migrant crisis from the Sub Saharan countries - something we are now starting to enjoy the benefits of here in England.

. I don't even dare to imagine what Hilary Clinton and Jeremy Corbyn would get up to together if they ever got in to power but the prospect of it terrifies me....."raving loonies" doesn't even begin to describe these two.

I don't agree with Dougie that Ken Clarke is a "looney" but he is a well known europhile who has always passionately believed the UK should be part of the EU. I respect his position but unfortunately for him he lost the argument on this one. Even Ken now agrees that the UK will be leaving the EU.

In terms of what will happen in the UK:

I think that a hard Brexit now looks the most likely outcome.

The Theresa May deal has got no chance. Unless the EU do what they've already said they won't do and alter the legal text of the withdrawal agreement, then her deal will be rejected by parliament.

What then?

The EU have said that they won't extend the article 50 process unless there is a material event in the UK (such as a second referendum).

A general election is possible but unlikely in my opinion, as the tories and the DUP do not want to risk a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn.

A second referendum has already been ruled out by May, but it would not solve anything anyway because the country remains split.

So the default position is the only one left, which is that the UK will crash out of the European Union on 29th March with no deal.

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Songs cast a light on you

interesting posts guys.. thanks.

@Chaser.. you do not mention not an extension of the Art. 50 process... but a revoking of it.  Sure it might be poltical suicide for May to do.. but isn't she dead man walking anyway...  I take it you think there is no chance she falls on her sword and in the absence of a orderly withdraw from the E.U and the potential of all the doomsday scenarios of a hard Brexit.. including a breakup of the UK .. that she does the responsible thing and revokes it.  Her final words before she is crucified being.. next time.. have a parachute on before you jump off a cliff.  I mean I've seen some stupid sh*t go down here in America.. but your government really took the cake on this one.

Perhaps a stupid line of ignorant reasoning.. but to outside observers like myself.. it seems like the smart and responsible course and god knows it sounds like someone in your government has to the one to stand up and say.. wait just a damned minute here.. we are we doing here...

Chaser didn't mention it as an option..  I was curious if it was the because of the unlikeness of it happening or some reason I wasn't aware of that made it not an option.. like an extension of the withdraw process.

Mrs May has shown herself to be something of a sociopath who believes entirely in herself and in no one else. She flatly refuses to listen to advice and is entirely convinced that her crappy deal is the only way forward despite the majority of her own people (both leavers and remainers) voicing loudly that they will not support her on it.  She will not fall on her sword in the foreseeable future because she really and truly believes she is leading the country in a spectacular manner.  She also can't risk revoking article 50 without serious risk of incurring major trouble on the streets as there would be 17 million VERY unhappy people in the country if she were to do that - we actually have the army on standby here for a number of possible scenarios.

  I've got my doubts that the UK will actually go so far as to break up, but that said we also have a complete lunatic in charge up in Scotland so I guess anything could happen.  Your guess is as good as mine, or anyone elses.   As Chaser says : you couldn't make this up.

And as for the ferries business...well what can I say....I'm completely bamboozled.

How on earth do you figure that??

I can see Chasers point although personally I don't think the Brits have it in them to go as far as civil war in their own country.

If article 50 was revoked it might be reasonable to expect trouble on the streets, which in turn might give rise to some kind of domestic terrorism - I don't know, I'm only speculating, but you know as well as I do the strength of feeling about this and it would be short sighted in the extreme to underestimate the possible consequences of a few elitists in Parliament denying a democratic decision which has been made by millions of people, and which was promised to be acted on accordingly by a government who in it's own arrogance went ahead with a referendum it was convinced it could never lose.

The simple truth is that no one knows what lies ahead, and as a friend of mine always likes to remind me : 'anything could happen'.  Governments and rulers have been forcibly removed in the past by an angry population on many occasions, and the likelihood of that happening in Britain, however seemingly remote, should not be casually discarded as an impossibility.

I have the same thing with this one:

 

Yes, but there was a decisive result in the 1975 referendum - 67% Yes to 33% No

 

In this referendum neither side has achieved a decisive victory, and there has been no decisive movement one way or the other since, therefore we are left in political limbo.

 

 

 For me it's this one by Bernard Butler:

 

My expectation (and hope) is that the Theresa May deal will be rejected by Parliament tomorrow.

 

Following that we will have, I expect, a no confidence motion in the government put forward by Jeremy Corbyn, which I expect to be defeated.  Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, and, even the Tory Brexiteers don't want to see a Jeremy Corbyn government

 

So, our lame duck government will limp on.

 

What next?

 

Theresa May will go to Brussels to plead for more, but the door will be firmly slammed in her face (again)

 

Meanwhile MP's in parliament will do their best to put in legislation that prevents a "hard Brexit".

 

I expect Theresa May to then go to Brussels and plead for more time, and Brussels will agree to kick the can down the road for a few more months.

 

The saga continues.....

Mainly for the reason.. what difference will a couple of months make.  Perhaps.. PERHAPS if there was any sign that there was any kind of chance that the brokered separation agreement plus or minus a few tweaks can get approval in the UK Parliament.. 

I agree that ideally the EU should think about it.  But the way things have played out suggests to me that EU is more concerned with projecting power and maintaining its position and sees accommodation as a loss of face (this happened with Greece too).  Which brings me to...if they think a UK crash and burn will be the same as Greece (i.e self inflicted wounds for the exiting country with no impact on the EU), they are very much mistaken.  London is a major financial center for the EU as well and not just UK, so the contagion will spread.  

The all round insistence on stubbornly maintaining positions and daring the other to blink first that I see everywhere is worrying (we have Trump with the shutdown for another example).  This is how WWI happened.  Yes, we may not have outright war, but the world's leaders are putting us on a path of economic devastation due to similar delusions of grandeur as those that created the conditions for WWI. 

I do think the complete f**kery that is plainly on display out of the UK on how they have handled this will likely not lead the EU to extend any deadline. Again.. if there was any hope that it might make a difference.. then yeah. One could see it, but otherwise.. it is just delaying the enitable. The UK will have the binary choice..  crash out.. and burn... or revoke Art. 50 and perhaps come back later once there is a political will to stomach some unpleasant realties that leaving will entail.