Forum Home Forum Home > Topics not related to music > General discussions
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Is the Middle East going to war?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Topic ClosedIs the Middle East going to war?
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 23456 10>
Author
Message Reverse Sort Order
  Topic Search Topic Search  Topic Options Topic Options
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2006 at 12:11
^ Thats part of the official line. That and the recent Hamas rocket attacks on Israel. I'm still convinced the Israeli agenda is broader than we're being told. True, their Arab neighbours would like nothing more to than to see the Jewish state destroyed, but my hunch is that Israel is seeking to destroy all its enemies now, before they get the means to do it to them.

Hopefully I'm wrong, and diplomacy will prevail, but to be honest after all these years of war, diplomacy is likey to be nothnig more than a stay of execution for one side or the other.
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
aapatsos View Drop Down
Special Collaborator
Special Collaborator
Avatar
Honorary Collaborator

Joined: November 11 2005
Location: Manchester, UK
Status: Offline
Points: 9226 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2006 at 08:15
Just watched the bombings in Libanon... it's so sad people... What is the reason this time?
I think some Israeli soldiers were kidnapped?
Is that right?
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 15:39
^ Agree with everything Blacksword just said.  The amount of unaccounted for nuclear material from the Fmr. USSR is truly terrifying.
 
Below if a scary update for both Israeli cities and the prospect of Iranian involvement:
 
Quote
Israel: New Hezbollah rockets can reach Tel Aviv and Be'er Sheva
By Haaretz Staff

Israel believes Hezbollah has missiles that can hit most of Israel, and which could even strike Be'er Sheva under optimum conditions.

Iran supplied Hezbollah with solid-fuel, Zelzal-2 missiles with a 200-km range, but these are not very accurate, since they do not have a self-guidance system.

The Zelzal-2 missiles, intended to strike broad targets such as communities and cities, are equipped with explosive warheads weighing up to 600 kilograms. The missiles are a later version of the Zelzal-1 missiles, which Iran first displayed in September 2005 at a military parade in Tehran, together with six Shihab-3 missiles.

Hezbollah's original Katyusha rockets had a range of 12 kilometers to 22 kilometers. At a later stage, it obtained Iranian Fajar-3 and Fajar-5 rockets, with a range of 45 kilometers and 75 kilometers, respectively. Hezbollah did not use these rockets until the current conflict.

The organization also has Syrian-made 22-millimeter rockets with a range of several dozen kilometers.

The rocket that hit Haifa on Thursday did not come as a complete surprise: the Israel Defense Forces knew Hezbollah had rockets with a range that would reach Haifa, but were surprised that the organization opted to use them.

Israel first learned that Hezbollah had rockets capable of reaching the outskirts of Haifa three months before the IDF pullout from Lebanon in May 2000.

The head of Military Intelligence reported two years ago that Hezbollah has 13,000 rockets, most with a 25-kilometer range, about 500 with a range of 45 kilometers to 75 kilometers, and a few dozen with a 115-kilometer range. The rockets were stored in several strategic places in the Beka'a Valley, and some were deployed along the Israeli border.

Back to Top
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 15:14
Originally posted by Chicapah Chicapah wrote:

If they haven't solved this since the breakup of the Garden of Eden I have doubts that they will figure out a compromise any time soon.  What I fear is that someday one of the Arab countries will try to make good on their threat to drive the Israelis into the Mediterranean and the nukes will start flying.  A lot of us in the US are glad there's an ocean between us and the middle east.  Prayer for peace is all we've got.


So far, it's only Israel that has nukes.

Well, thats the belief, and even Israel wont confirm this. If Syria and Iran already have nukes,I would imagine the CIA and the Mossad will already know. Syria already has chemical weapons.

One fear is that amid all the hardware Russia have so generously flogged to Iran over the years, are a few nukes. Assuming Israel is the sole nuclear power in the ME, then at least this couldn't escalate into a two way nuclear exchange. But, the use of these weapons by anyone is completly abhorant.
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
VanderGraafKommandöh View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: July 04 2005
Location: Malaria
Status: Offline
Points: 89372 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 12:19
I wish you well too Assaf, I hope you are able to leave on August 6 (my birthday as it happens) and that you'll be able to escape all this.

War is so needless and I feel sad even thinking about it all.
Back to Top
Chicapah View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: February 14 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 8238 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 12:12
First, let me say that I hope you stay safe.
Secondly, I was referring to the nukes.  Just don't want them next door.
"Literature is well enough, as a time-passer, and for the improvement and general elevation and purification of mankind, but it has no practical value" - Mark Twain
Back to Top
avestin View Drop Down
Special Collaborator
Special Collaborator
Avatar
Honorary Collaborator

Joined: September 18 2005
Status: Offline
Points: 12625 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 12:07
Originally posted by Chicapah Chicapah wrote:

A lot of us in the US are glad there's an ocean between us and the middle east. 


As we all have seen, an ocean is not what stops terrorists from reaching the USA. Nor will it stop other mal-intent people and countries to try and hurt the USA.
We try to deal with them here, but it is impossible.
I'll be glad as well when August 6th arrives and I'll be out of here (if I don't get summoned before that).

Hanging Sounds

PA Index of prog music vendors


Back to Top
Chicapah View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: February 14 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 8238 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:55
If they haven't solved this since the breakup of the Garden of Eden I have doubts that they will figure out a compromise any time soon.  What I fear is that someday one of the Arab countries will try to make good on their threat to drive the Israelis into the Mediterranean and the nukes will start flying.  A lot of us in the US are glad there's an ocean between us and the middle east.  Prayer for peace is all we've got.
"Literature is well enough, as a time-passer, and for the improvement and general elevation and purification of mankind, but it has no practical value" - Mark Twain
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:52
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

Originally posted by dralan dralan wrote:

Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I've started to feel that the only way it will end is with genocide, by either side
 
 Yes sadly it seems some people will stop at nothing less than a complete annihilation of Israel. We here in America will never completely understand this centuries old conflict, no matter how many books we read or how many years of college we have.
 
that, coupled with Israel, possibly 20-30 years down the line still mired in Intifada just snapping, another possible scenario.
 
Not to mention Iran saying the sacrifice of the Palestinians would be worth it to destroy Israel, in a nuclear attack, since both partis would be destoryed.
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:45
Originally posted by dralan dralan wrote:

Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I've started to feel that the only way it will end is with genocide, by either side
 
 Yes sadly it seems some people will stop at nothing less than a complete annihilation of Israel. We here in America will never completely understand this centuries old conflict, no matter how many books we read or how many years of college we have.
 
that, coupled with Israel, possibly 20-30 years down the line still mired in Intifada just snapping, another possible scenario.
Back to Top
dralan View Drop Down
Forum Senior Member
Forum Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: December 29 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 339 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:25
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I've started to feel that the only way it will end is with genocide, by either side
 
 Yes sadly it seems some people will stop at nothing less than a complete annihilation of Israel. We here in America will never completely understand this centuries old conflict, no matter how many books we read or how many years of college we have.
Back to Top
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:24
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I've started to feel that the only way it will end is with genocide, by either side


Thats my gut feeling, too...

    
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:18
I've started to feel that the only way it will end is with genocide, by either side
Back to Top
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 11:11
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I'm not saying I condone it, I'm just saying that is the way things work over there.
 

I really do think there is no possible solution.  I don't think either side will ever five up the Temple Mount, and ever, and therefore there will be no peace, just lulls and flare ups in the violence.


Hopefully more lulls than flare ups..


     
When I was a kid, I remember my dad despairing at the Middle East problem, and saying that one day it would end in a horrible climax. Although this has been going on for decades, I guess for many people the Arab Israeli conflict has only really come into focus since the turn of the century, because the spotlight has been on Islamic terrorism. I've only ever paid it any attention in the last ten to fifteen years. Growing up, there always seemed to be conflict in these distant dusty lands, and religion always seemed to be festering at the core of it all; an apocalyptic desire for total destruction of the Jews, counter balanced by Israels mightly military machine, and a biblical belief that the land is theirs.

Do you never get the feeling, that one day this region is quite simply going to explode into all out war, because it's not really got anywhere else to go? Terrorism on a global scale will not be defeated. It may be thwarted now and then, but never defeated.
    

Edited by Blacksword - July 14 2006 at 11:11
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 10:51
I'm not saying I condone it, I'm just saying that is the way things work over there.
 
I really do think there is no possible solution.  I don't think either side will ever five up the Temple Mount, and ever, and therefore there will be no peace, just lulls and flare ups in the violence.


Edited by NetsNJFan - July 14 2006 at 10:52
Back to Top
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 10:39
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

Blacksword, I never said the Peace Process meant that much to Olmert.  The Israeli government basically belives that this conflict has no solution, and at best can be "managed", and that atactiacal withdrawl from the west Bank is the best way to manage the conflict.  Recent events in Gaza have shown otherwise.


with regards to prisoner exchange, yes Israel has done it in the past, but I think Israel basically feels like, enough, we've been out of Lebanon for six years and Hizbullah still raids our borders, we aren't playing this game anymore.  People are freakign out over the disproportionbate use of force by Israel, but over the last six years they have used proportionate force countless times against hezbollah in souther Lebanon, and it hasn't done a damn thing.  This basically comes down to "lebanon, grow up and secure your border, or we will".

 

I don't think people understand that the Middle East, all states involved, simply play by different, harsher rules than Europe and America. In a book I read about Lebanon, it told an old Lebanese folk tale, that went like this: An old farmer wakes up one day to find one of his chickens stolen. He wakes up his three sons, and commands them to get back the chicken. They say, "Dad, it is just a chicken, it is not worth it". The next day the farmer awakes to find his cow and goats gone, and his daughter rapes. His sons come to him and say "why is all this happening to us" and the Father says "because you wouldn't get my chicken back, we lost our honor, and people felt they could do whatever they wanted"

 

(on second thought, this may have been Bedouin?)I don't remember exactly how it goes, but that's the gist. Syria, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, all play by very tough, very vengeful rules built around deterrence and maintaining honor. Thomas Friedman called them "hama rules", after the the February, 1982 massacre in Hama by Syria of 20-40,000 of its own citizens.  Ariel Sharon was the most feared man in the middle east, because he had no problem playing by "Hama rules" and obliterating the enemy, as Assad did in 1982.


Well, I would agree with the Israeli government on one thing. The conflict has no solution, and at best can be managed. That said, I dont think this constitutes very good management of a bad situation.

'Hama Rules' is clearly not the way forward. I would have thought history had made that clear.   
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
NetsNJFan View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer


Joined: April 12 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 3047 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 09:14

Blacksword, I never said the Peace Process meant that much to Olmert.  The Israeli government basically belives that this conflict has no solution, and at best can be "managed", and that atactiacal withdrawl from the west Bank is the best way to manage the conflict.  Recent events in Gaza have shown otherwise.

with regards to prisoner exchange, yes Israel has done it in the past, but I think Israel basically feels like, enough, we've been out of Lebanon for six years and Hizbullah still raids our borders, we aren't playing this game anymore.  People are freakign out over the disproportionbate use of force by Israel, but over the last six years they have used proportionate force countless times against hezbollah in souther Lebanon, and it hasn't done a damn thing.  This basically comes down to "lebanon, grow up and secure your border, or we will".
 
I don't think people understand that the Middle East, all states involved, simply play by different, harsher rules than Europe and America.

In a book I read about Lebanon, it told an old Lebanese folk tale, that went like this:

An old farmer wakes up one day to find one of his chickens stolen. He wakes up his three sons, and commands them to get back the chicken. They say, "Dad, it is just a chicken, it is not worth it". The next day the farmer awakes to find his cow and goats gone, and his daughter rapes. His sons come to him and say "why is all this happening to us" and the Father says "because you wouldn't get my chicken back, we lost our honor, and people felt they could do whatever they wanted"
 
(on second thought, this may have been Bedouin?)

I don't remember exactly how it goes, but that's the gist. Syria, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, all play by very tough, very vengeful rules built around deterrence and maintaining honor.

Thomas Friedman called them "hama rules", after the the February, 1982 massacre in Hama by Syria of 20-40,000 of its own citizens.  Ariel Sharon was the most feared man in the middle east, because he had no problem playing by "Hama rules" and obliterating the enemy, as Assad did in 1982.


Edited by NetsNJFan - July 14 2006 at 09:23
Back to Top
Blacksword View Drop Down
Prog Reviewer
Prog Reviewer
Avatar

Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 03:14
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

I'm sorry Blacksword, Lebanon is responsible for this, just like witht he Palestinians, Hizbullah is a political party represented in their parliament.  They can't say, "it's Hizbullah, not us"

 

Fairly inconsequential rocket attacks, Blacksword?:

 

<SPAN ="article"><FONT face=Arial size=4>At least 90 wounded in rocket attacks; second woman dies</SPAN>

<SPAN ="article"><FONT face=Arial size=4></SPAN> 

Israel doesn't have that martyr mentality so even two deaths are mourned.

 

I am really worried about this situation.  I didn't see Lebanon in this picture at all.

 

Well to answer my own question, looks like a real war, not just border flare-ups.  The ball is now in Syria's court, they may have to get involved for political reasons.

 

Blacksword, I don't think this was premeditated on Israel's part.  The Israeli Governments official policy was disengagement from the West Bank (90% withdrawal), that is what the PM campaigned on, withdrawal.  That plan is dead now because of the situation, and hes not happy about it.


I'm still not convinced that this wasn't pre-meditated. The question of 'why now' is being asked thoughout the international community. Especially in light of the fact that Israel had been far more ready to negotiate the release of hostages in the past. It's exactly because of their policy of disengagement from the WB, that this kind of extreme action should have been avoided at all costs. If the peace process meant that much to Olmert, why has he played a key part in setting the clock back over 20 years?

The challenges he faces are having a Palestinian government which openly endorses terror. I can fully understand him not wanting to negotiate with a terrorist government. Hezbollah are key in this escalation too, I agree, but both sides are baiting each other, as if trying to escalate the conflict further.     
Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
Back to Top
mystic fred View Drop Down
Special Collaborator
Special Collaborator
Avatar
Honorary Collaborator

Joined: March 13 2006
Location: Londinium
Status: Offline
Points: 4252 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2006 at 02:25
Well war in the middle east does now seem very likely since the Hezbollah attack on the tourist area of Haifa. Israel is now opposing two fronts, and if Iran and Syria back Lebanon they will have more than they can cope with. Condoleeza Rice says she hopes Israel will negotiate, including a prisoner exchange,  instead of retaliating, otherwise there will be full scale war. Why doesn't Israel just leave Palestine alone - why do they continue to take their land ? The UN needs to intervene to stop the escalation of retaliatory conflict and bring the countries back to the negotiating table.
Prog Archives Tour Van
Back to Top
avestin View Drop Down
Special Collaborator
Special Collaborator
Avatar
Honorary Collaborator

Joined: September 18 2005
Status: Offline
Points: 12625 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2006 at 17:10
^^^
You're right, Mark. Bad choice of words I had there.
Thanks for the encouragement.
Hanging Sounds

PA Index of prog music vendors


Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 23456 10>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down



This page was generated in 0.141 seconds.
Donate monthly and keep PA fast-loading and ad-free forever.