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Topic ClosedIs the Middle East going to war?

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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Is the Middle East going to war?
    Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:08
Possibly:
 
1.  Israel took out a Gaza strip power transformer and several bridges, while Israeli troops have begun reoccupying the southern Gaza Strip (near Rafah), in response to thousands of Qassam attacks on border towns the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier within the 1967 lines.  This kidnapping's responsibilty was partially claimed by Hamas's military wing.  This is the largest military operation Israel has launched, since Operation Defensive Shield, when it re-occupied the West Bank, in 2002.  Amir Peretz, the Israeli MoD (who looks like Stalin) just authorized the IDF to move into northern Gaza, near Gaza City.
 
2.  Israel has made several "flyovers" of Bashar el Assad (Syria) compound, low enough to create sonic booms, to pressure him to release Khaled Meshaal, the "real" boss of Hamas.
 
3.  Israel has all but declared war on the Palestinian Authority: saying that the Gaza strip is foreign soil ruled by a foreign government committed to its destruction which has made recent attacks againt Israel, climaxing in the kidnap of the soldier for ransom. 
 
4.  Jordan and Egypt have been working furiously to defuse the situation, since they would be caught in a precarious position should there be another Arab-Israeli war.  Similarly, Mahmoud Abbas, the PA prez, is also workign frantically behind the scenes to have the hostage released, since he knows if he doesn't this is the end of his relevance.
 
5.  Egypt has mobilised its troops along the Gaza border, to prevent refugees and the hostage from being transferred to Egypt.
 
6.  The wildcards here are the US and EU, as of yet no reaction, though it's coming.
 
I think this will eventually cool off regarding other states in the ME, because this isn't the 60's and 70's, and they've learned to put self-interest over Ideology (for the most part), but this is wothout doubt the nadir of Israeli-Palestinian relations over the last 4 years.  Nonetheless, I'm very worried. 
 
So, MTS, Blacksword, AALFW, all the others, what are your predictions:
 
(note:  this thread isn't about criticizing, both sides have their faults, it's about predicting what the situation will becomeWink)
 
 


Edited by NetsNJFan - June 28 2006 at 14:14
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:31
They are all dancing on a powder keg over there.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:35

What exactly, one wonders, are the Israeli tamks & troops to attack? All that the Palestinians have is people.....and houses. (Obviously they won't attack any of the major states in the region.) So, they'll look bad in the eyes of the world, kill a few Palestinians, destroy many houses, and perpetuate the hatred that the Palestinians have for Israel. Which is probably what they want, as it provides an excuse for never sanctioning a Palestinian state. Still, look on the bright side, it's US tax dollars that is paying for all the hardware on display........Wink

The basic problem, though, is that Israel is making the same mistake as as the US currently is - using military tactics to deal with a few criminals.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:38
I predict that as usual innocent human beings will killed on both "sides". To think that this area is still a powder-keg in the 21st Century nauseates me. Who the heck wants to live like that in constant fear? The people who allow this to continue are not civilised people.Dead

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:42
Crimson:  as of now, Israelis have not moved into any built up areas, only open areas, as a buffer with Israel proper.  Urban warfare is a nightmare for both sides.  So far no reported casualties, but that's so far.
 
When the attacks are coming from the militant half of the PA ruling party, I think it's more than just petty criminals.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:51
Update:

Syria is claiming it fired at the IAF jets, causing them to disperse. 
 
Uncomfirmed by IDF.
 
I doubt it though, Syria always says they've done stuff they haven't to look strong for their people.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:07
This is a worrying development. As you say no reaction from the US or EU as yet, but they cant stay silent on this for much longer.

My hope is that this will cool off and not escalate into something far bigger. My gut feeling is that may be the case.

I hope the Palestinians release the young soldier they kidnapped, but I have a bad feeling about his well being. I feel also he may be being used as a politcal tool, and an excuse by the new Israeli PM to flex some muscle, and show how hardline he is in dealing with terrorism. I think this is a bad move by Israel, which could ultimately end up with this young man losing his life. The Israeli government must step back from the brink and pressure Mabbas - who has condemned the kidnapping - to work to secure his release.

Is the ME about to explode? Well, the propheteers claim this is the year where it will all 'kick off' Lets hope they're wrong. Things do seem to be moving very much in the wrong direction since Sharon left the shop. Not that I'm a huge fan of Sharon, but the new guy in town appears to be frothing at the mouth.

It's worth remembering that there is great deal of dischord among Palestinian factions. This must be capitilised on by Israel and the west to avoid further bloodshed on both sides.

I know wat you think of the UN, Nets, but I really think the international community should be doing everything they can to bring both sides to the table, and recognise how serious this could be.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:09
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:28
^ Blackie, I don't think the Int'l community should play no role in this, just not the UN.  I basically support the Quartet and the road map, which both sides scream about but neither follows.
 
If Sharon were still running things this operation would have happened months ago.  He was a military man who didn't care about western opinion -- Olmert is the opposite.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:36
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

^ Blackie, I don't think the Int'l community should play no role in this, just not the UN.  I basically support the Quartet and the road map, which both sides scream about but neither follows.



 

If Sharon were still running things this operation would have happened months ago.  He was a military man who didn't care about western opinion -- Olmert is the opposite.


Does Olmert really care about western opinion? I dont know much about him, I must admit.

Why is all this happening now? Our media has not really given any coverage to the other points you mentioned; troops on Egyptian border etc. Now I read that, I'm inclined to think this may be the start of something bigger.

I always thought the road map was something of a red herring, even when Sharon ordered the dismantleing of the West Bank settlements last year, I assumed it was just political manouvering. Things seem to be going backwards.

According to our media, the kidnapping seems to be at the core of this. I wish no harm on this young soldier, but the Israeli reaction seems to be overkill.
    
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:42
It's not just the kidnapping, but that was seen as a "last straw" since it occurred in Israel proper.  It is more a response to the 1000+ qassam rockets launched from Gaza since Israel withdrew.
 
Yea Olmert is pretty beholden to Western opinion, especially of the USA.  He came back from his USA/EU tour spouting very different rhetoric.
 
But yea, I think it is pretty bad.  No good will come of this, except maybe a few weeks of quite on the Gaza border for Israel.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:46
I found this on the back shelf of the BBC news site. It seems Israel is accusing Syria of complicity in the kidnapping.

BBC Report

Assuming this does not escalte into a broader conflict, dont see how this crisis can be resolved without significant bloodshed on both sides. I also dont see how the Israeli incursions are going to improve things in the longer term.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:47
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 16:59
      I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04
Originally posted by bhikkhu bhikkhu wrote:

       I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.


Sanctions on who?

Israel has already shelled a power station and is threatening to cut off water supplies. There is very little we can do to punish the Hamas government. They dont really have anything except foreign aid, and much of that has` already been cut.

There is not much the US, or anyone can do really. This conflict belongs to Israel and the Palestinians. If the PA refuses to recognise Israel, and Israel continues it's heavy handed approach there is no hope.
    
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04

Well first of all it's terrible to see things happening.  After so many efforts to try to compromise between Israel and Palestine, things still seem to be the way they always have been, and maybe even getting worse.

I don't believe there will be war anytime soon.   The Internatioinal community is going to intervene and more negoiations will take place and eventually bring forth a ceasefire.  However I do believe that there will be more violence than the International community was hoping for this year.

 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:35
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Originally posted by bhikkhu bhikkhu wrote:

       I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.


Sanctions on who?

Israel has already shelled a power station and is threatening to cut off water supplies. There is very little we can do to punish the Hamas government. They dont really have anything except foreign aid, and much of that has` already been cut.

There is not much the US, or anyone can do really. This conflict belongs to Israel and the Palestinians. If the PA refuses to recognise Israel, and Israel continues it's heavy handed approach there is no hope.
    
 
Exactly, there is little anyone can do about Hamas.  Palestinians will suffer under this extremist government, but their hatred will turn to Israel and supposed collaborators like Abu Mazen, when they should turn to Hamas, who has made them into pariahs.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:47

here is the Int'l response:

 
Annan: Release of Shalit would defuse tensions between Israel, PA
By News Agencies

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Wednesday urged Hamas militants to release unharmed captured Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit from the Gaza Strip border on Sunday in order to defuse Israeli-Palestinian tensions.

Annan said he discussed by telephone with Prime Minister Ehud Omert the military raid he ordered into Gaza, saying that unilateral action would not resolve the situation.

"It is important that the two leaders (Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas) work together to calm the situation," Annan told reporters.

He said Olmert promised "maximum restraint" in the use of force while Israeli troops and tanks have entered Gaza.

Annan said he also talked to Abbas, who said he was discussing with Palestinian factions ways to bring the violence under control.

"I hope they will allow time for a diplomatic solution," Annan said. "I hope no action will be taken to harm him (the Israeli soldier) and that he would be returned alive."

U.S. blames Hamas for escalation
The Bush administration on Wednesday blamed the Hamas movement for the recent escalation sparked by the kidnapping of Shalit.

At the White House, press secretary Tony Snow said "the hostage-taking and the attacks by Hamas last weekend have precipitated the current events in Gaza," Snow said. "Israel has the right to defend itself and the lives of its citizens. ... Let's just point out, once again, you have the Israeli forces trying to reclaim somebody who was kidnapped and is being held hostage in Gaza. And they are doing what they can to return him."

Snow would not comment on any of the specific actions taken by Israel.

The U.S. Administration affirmed on Wednesday Israel's right to defend itself against acts of terror and called on Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Egypt to help resolve a crisis provoked by the abduction of Shalit.

The White House and State Department declined to take a position on Israel's pressure offensive in southern Gaza that has knocked out electricity and water supplies for some 700 thousand Palestinians living in Gaza.

"It's generally not our practice to go into the details of diplomatic conversations," said deputy State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

At the same time, the spokesman stressed that "Israel has a right to defend itself and the lives of its citizens," while urging Israel "to ensure that innocent lives are not harmed."

Ereli urged Palestinian militants to release the soldier and Israel to "avoid the unnecessary destruction of property and infrastructure" as it tries to get him back.

Spokesmen said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and U.S. diplomats "continue to do everything we can... to bring this crisis to a peaceful resolution."

Abbas and the Egyptians "have contacts and have capabilities that can be useful in resolving this crisis," said Ereli.

Rice, who is traveling in South Asia, telephoned Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni for a second time this week, Ereli said. He declined to say whether Israel was informing Rice and other U.S. officials about its military operations and whether the Bush administration was trying to influence Israel's strategy.

EU urges Israel, PA to resolve soldier crisis diplomatically
The European Union urged both Israel and the Palestinians on Wedndesday, to "step back from the brink" and allow diplomacy to resolve the crisis caused by the abduction of Gilad Shalit.

"All sides need to consider their responsibilities extremely carefully," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said in a statement on Wednesday, after IDF troops moved into the Gaza Strip, shelling targets and bombing power stations and a bridge.

"Both sides need to step back from the brink before this becomes a crisis that neither side can control," Ferrero-Waldner warned.

The IDF operation was aimed at pressuring militants to release IDF soldier Corporal Gilad Shalit, captured during a cross-border raid on Sunday. The militants have demanded that all Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails be set free.

Wednesday's EU statement demanded that the Palestinian militants immediately release Shalit, saying that keeping him would only make things worse for the Palestinian people.

"It is unacceptable to seek political goals by such means," Ferrero-Waldner said.

She reiterated a call for those holding Shalit to free him, and urged Israel to "act with prudence," in order to allow for the success of diplomatic efforts to secure his release.

Ferrero-Waldner expressed concern about the IDF shelling that had
disrupted electricity supplies in much of Gaza, saying vital services such as hospitals also had been affected.

"Everything must be done to prevent the humanitarian situation from worsening," she said.

Austria, the current president of the EU, also called for the IDF soldier's "immediate and unconditional release."

Austria urged "the Palestinian leadership to undertake all necessary efforts in this regard" and called on all parties to show restraint and to "avoid further escalation."

In his weekly House of Commons question session, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Wednesday that the IDF offensive in Gaza demonstrated the importance of restarting the peace process, "which is the only way to stop events like the terrible events of the last 24 hours."

"In the end, what is necessary obviously is to make sure that peace and calm is restored so that there's some possibility of getting negotiation going," he said.

Blair said he still wanted to return to the long-stalled road map peace plan drafted by the Quartet, which is made up of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia.

In Paris, France's Foreign Minister denounced the use of force by both sides saying the crisis could only be solved through a political dialogue.

Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said he still believed it was possible to restart the stalled peace process, and pointed to the announcement Tuesday of a Palestinian plan that implicitly recognizes Israel. He described the plan, hammered out by rival Hamas and Fatah movements, as a "significant step forward."

In Tokyo, the government said it was reevaluating a trip by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the Middle East next month, following reports of the Israeli incursion into Gaza.

The Japanese leader was expected to visit Israel and the Palestinian
territories before attending the G8 summit of industrialized nations in
mid-July in Russia. But the recent spike in violence may alter those plans, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

"At this stage, we have not decided on what to do," Abe said. "In any case, various things occur in this region, so we need to constantly keep a close watch."

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:51
True, there is a great deal of potentially dangerous "muscle-flexing" going on right now.  However, I don't think it will lead to any kind of widespread conflagration.  Still, it would be best if everyone there took a chil pill and "toned down" the "perceived hostile acts."
 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:57
It's interesting that the EU calls on BOTH sides to seek a diplomatic solution, but the US decines to comment on Israeli reaction, and blames Hamas for everything. Washinton merely states that Israel has the right to defend itself. I dont think many people would dispute that, but why is the US so reluctant to criticise Israeli action?

I think more could be achieved if the US took a more balanced view.

It seems to me to be a 'no brainer' that nothing will be achieved in bringing about a ceasefire, by Israels current course of action. Perhaps Israel, or indeed both sides are delberately trying to escalate this conflict.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 17:58
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:02
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

It's interesting that the EU calls on BOTH sides to seek a diplomatic solution, but the US decines to comment on Israeli reaction, and blames Hamas for everything. Washington merely states that Israel has the right to defend itself. I dont think many people would dispute that, but why is the US so reluctant to criticise Israeli action?

I think more could be achieved if the US took a more balanced view.

It seems to me to be a 'no brainer' that nothing will be achieved in bringing about a ceasefire, by Israels current course of action. Perhaps Israel, or indeed both sides are delberately trying to escalate this conflict.
    
 
At the same time Washington in the past has prohibited Israel from using the force that they want to use.  Washington has repeatedly sided with Israel, but at the same time limited Israel's military options.  I wish Washington would stop playing Israel for fools and tell them one of two things.  Either to wholeheartedly support Israel and allow them to use all force they believe necessary, or become a mediator and try to bring both sides togethor in agreement.
 
I much prefer the second option, but I think the U.S. really needs to take a stand on this situation.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:06
^ good point AALFW, I agree. 
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