Is the Middle East going to war? |
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Topic: Is the Middle East going to war? Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:08 |
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Possibly:
1. Israel took out a Gaza strip power transformer and several bridges, while Israeli troops have begun reoccupying the southern Gaza Strip (near Rafah), in response to thousands of Qassam attacks on border towns the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier within the 1967 lines. This kidnapping's responsibilty was partially claimed by Hamas's military wing. This is the largest military operation Israel has launched, since Operation Defensive Shield, when it re-occupied the West Bank, in 2002. Amir Peretz, the Israeli MoD (who looks like Stalin) just authorized the IDF to move into northern Gaza, near Gaza City.
2. Israel has made several "flyovers" of Bashar el Assad (Syria) compound, low enough to create sonic booms, to pressure him to release Khaled Meshaal, the "real" boss of Hamas.
3. Israel has all but declared war on the Palestinian Authority: saying that the Gaza strip is foreign soil ruled by a foreign government committed to its destruction which has made recent attacks againt Israel, climaxing in the kidnap of the soldier for ransom.
4. Jordan and Egypt have been working furiously to defuse the situation, since they would be caught in a precarious position should there be another Arab-Israeli war. Similarly, Mahmoud Abbas, the PA prez, is also workign frantically behind the scenes to have the hostage released, since he knows if he doesn't this is the end of his relevance.
5. Egypt has mobilised its troops along the Gaza border, to prevent refugees and the hostage from being transferred to Egypt.
6. The wildcards here are the US and EU, as of yet no reaction, though it's coming.
I think this will eventually cool off regarding other states in the ME, because this isn't the 60's and 70's, and they've learned to put self-interest over Ideology (for the most part), but this is wothout doubt the nadir of Israeli-Palestinian relations over the last 4 years. Nonetheless, I'm very worried.
So, MTS, Blacksword, AALFW, all the others, what are your predictions:
(note: this thread isn't about criticizing, both sides have their faults, it's about predicting what the situation will become)
Edited by NetsNJFan - June 28 2006 at 14:14 |
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Chicapah
Prog Reviewer Joined: February 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8238 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:31 | ||||||||||||||||||
They are all dancing on a powder keg over there.
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"Literature is well enough, as a time-passer, and for the improvement and general elevation and purification of mankind, but it has no practical value" - Mark Twain
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crimson thing
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 28 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 848 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:35 | ||||||||||||||||||
What exactly, one wonders, are the Israeli tamks & troops to attack? All that the Palestinians have is people.....and houses. (Obviously they won't attack any of the major states in the region.) So, they'll look bad in the eyes of the world, kill a few Palestinians, destroy many houses, and perpetuate the hatred that the Palestinians have for Israel. Which is probably what they want, as it provides an excuse for never sanctioning a Palestinian state. Still, look on the bright side, it's US tax dollars that is paying for all the hardware on display........ The basic problem, though, is that Israel is making the same mistake as as the US currently is - using military tactics to deal with a few criminals. |
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"Every man over forty is a scoundrel." GBS
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Tony R
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: July 16 2004 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 11979 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:38 | ||||||||||||||||||
I predict that as usual innocent human beings will killed on both "sides". To think that this area is still a powder-keg in the 21st Century nauseates me. Who the heck wants to live like that in constant fear? The people who allow this to continue are not civilised people.
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:42 | ||||||||||||||||||
Crimson: as of now, Israelis have not moved into any built up areas, only open areas, as a buffer with Israel proper. Urban warfare is a nightmare for both sides. So far no reported casualties, but that's so far.
When the attacks are coming from the militant half of the PA ruling party, I think it's more than just petty criminals.
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:51 | ||||||||||||||||||
Update:
Syria is claiming it fired at the IAF jets, causing them to disperse. Uncomfirmed by IDF.
I doubt it though, Syria always says they've done stuff they haven't to look strong for their people.
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:07 | ||||||||||||||||||
This is a worrying development. As you say no reaction from the US or EU as yet, but they cant stay silent on this for much longer.
My hope is that this will cool off and not escalate into something far bigger. My gut feeling is that may be the case. I hope the Palestinians release the young soldier they kidnapped, but I have a bad feeling about his well being. I feel also he may be being used as a politcal tool, and an excuse by the new Israeli PM to flex some muscle, and show how hardline he is in dealing with terrorism. I think this is a bad move by Israel, which could ultimately end up with this young man losing his life. The Israeli government must step back from the brink and pressure Mabbas - who has condemned the kidnapping - to work to secure his release. Is the ME about to explode? Well, the propheteers claim this is the year where it will all 'kick off' Lets hope they're wrong. Things do seem to be moving very much in the wrong direction since Sharon left the shop. Not that I'm a huge fan of Sharon, but the new guy in town appears to be frothing at the mouth. It's worth remembering that there is great deal of dischord among Palestinian factions. This must be capitilised on by Israel and the west to avoid further bloodshed on both sides. I know wat you think of the UN, Nets, but I really think the international community should be doing everything they can to bring both sides to the table, and recognise how serious this could be. Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:09 |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:28 | ||||||||||||||||||
^ Blackie, I don't think the Int'l community should play no role in this, just not the UN. I basically support the Quartet and the road map, which both sides scream about but neither follows.
If Sharon were still running things this operation would have happened months ago. He was a military man who didn't care about western opinion -- Olmert is the opposite.
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:36 | ||||||||||||||||||
Does Olmert really care about western opinion? I dont know much about him, I must admit. Why is all this happening now? Our media has not really given any coverage to the other points you mentioned; troops on Egyptian border etc. Now I read that, I'm inclined to think this may be the start of something bigger. I always thought the road map was something of a red herring, even when Sharon ordered the dismantleing of the West Bank settlements last year, I assumed it was just political manouvering. Things seem to be going backwards. According to our media, the kidnapping seems to be at the core of this. I wish no harm on this young soldier, but the Israeli reaction seems to be overkill. |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:42 | ||||||||||||||||||
It's not just the kidnapping, but that was seen as a "last straw" since it occurred in Israel proper. It is more a response to the 1000+ qassam rockets launched from Gaza since Israel withdrew.
Yea Olmert is pretty beholden to Western opinion, especially of the USA. He came back from his USA/EU tour spouting very different rhetoric.
But yea, I think it is pretty bad. No good will come of this, except maybe a few weeks of quite on the Gaza border for Israel.
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:46 | ||||||||||||||||||
I found this on the back shelf of the BBC news site. It seems Israel is accusing Syria of complicity in the kidnapping.
BBC Report Assuming this does not escalte into a broader conflict, dont see how this crisis can be resolved without significant bloodshed on both sides. I also dont see how the Israeli incursions are going to improve things in the longer term. Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:47 |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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bhikkhu
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 06 2006 Location: AČ Michigan Status: Offline Points: 5109 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 16:59 | ||||||||||||||||||
I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04 | ||||||||||||||||||
Sanctions on who? Israel has already shelled a power station and is threatening to cut off water supplies. There is very little we can do to punish the Hamas government. They dont really have anything except foreign aid, and much of that has` already been cut. There is not much the US, or anyone can do really. This conflict belongs to Israel and the Palestinians. If the PA refuses to recognise Israel, and Israel continues it's heavy handed approach there is no hope. |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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AtLossForWords
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 11 2005 Status: Offline Points: 6699 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04 | ||||||||||||||||||
Well first of all it's terrible to see things happening. After so many efforts to try to compromise between Israel and Palestine, things still seem to be the way they always have been, and maybe even getting worse. I don't believe there will be war anytime soon. The Internatioinal community is going to intervene and more negoiations will take place and eventually bring forth a ceasefire. However I do believe that there will be more violence than the International community was hoping for this year.
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"Mastodon sucks giant monkey balls." |
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:35 | ||||||||||||||||||
Exactly, there is little anyone can do about Hamas. Palestinians will suffer under this extremist government, but their hatred will turn to Israel and supposed collaborators like Abu Mazen, when they should turn to Hamas, who has made them into pariahs.
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:47 | ||||||||||||||||||
here is the Int'l response:
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maani
Special Collaborator Founding Moderator Joined: January 30 2004 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2632 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:51 | ||||||||||||||||||
True, there is a great deal of potentially dangerous "muscle-flexing" going on right now. However, I don't think it will lead to any kind of widespread conflagration. Still, it would be best if everyone there took a chil pill and "toned down" the "perceived hostile acts."
Peace. (Now more than ever...)
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:57 | ||||||||||||||||||
It's interesting that the EU calls on BOTH sides to seek a diplomatic solution, but the US decines to comment on Israeli reaction, and blames Hamas for everything. Washinton merely states that Israel has the right to defend itself. I dont think many people would dispute that, but why is the US so reluctant to criticise Israeli action?
I think more could be achieved if the US took a more balanced view. It seems to me to be a 'no brainer' that nothing will be achieved in bringing about a ceasefire, by Israels current course of action. Perhaps Israel, or indeed both sides are delberately trying to escalate this conflict. Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 17:58 |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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AtLossForWords
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 11 2005 Status: Offline Points: 6699 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:02 | ||||||||||||||||||
At the same time Washington in the past has prohibited Israel from using the force that they want to use. Washington has repeatedly sided with Israel, but at the same time limited Israel's military options. I wish Washington would stop playing Israel for fools and tell them one of two things. Either to wholeheartedly support Israel and allow them to use all force they believe necessary, or become a mediator and try to bring both sides togethor in agreement.
I much prefer the second option, but I think the U.S. really needs to take a stand on this situation.
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"Mastodon sucks giant monkey balls." |
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NetsNJFan
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 12 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 3047 |
Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:06 | ||||||||||||||||||
^ good point AALFW, I agree.
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