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Brexit: A change of heart??

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Poll Question: Have you changed your mind either way?
Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
17 [45.95%]
18 [48.65%]
1 [2.70%]
1 [2.70%]
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Chaser View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 14:45
And Corbychops blew his chance for No Confidence vote opportunity!
[/QUOTE]
 
Biggest defeat for a UK government in history!
 
I think that sums up just how bad the Theresa May deal was.
 
Jeremy Corbyn is only interested in Jeremy Corbyn, and not the country.
 
The vote of no confidence in the government is a waste of time.  I expect the government to win, even though, in normal times, a defeat like this would be the end of the government and the Prime Minister, but these are not normal times.
 
What next?  Concessions from the EU?  Unlikely, but you never know.
 
Another referendum?  Highly unlikely in my opinion.
 
An extension of Article 50 beyond 29th March?  Now odds on I would say
 
But if the EU won't play ball then a no deal exit on 29th March looks more and more likely.
 
I'm starting to think what I might need in my Brexit bunker.  Apparently toilet paper could be in short supply... I don't remember that slogan being on the side of a bus
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AZF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 11:01
Originally posted by Chaser Chaser wrote:

Originally posted by moshkito moshkito wrote:

Hi,

We'll see what happens with this ... today I think is the day!

 
She's going to lose.
 
It's what she announces after the vote that's more significant


And Corbychops blew his chance for No Confidence vote opportunity!
That said my Poll Clerk people asked me if I was up for this year's council elections.
And I also mentioned an interest should anything else like this pop up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 06:42
Originally posted by moshkito moshkito wrote:

Hi,

We'll see what happens with this ... today I think is the day!
 
She's going to lose.
 
It's what she announces after the vote that's more significant
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote moshkito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 06:36
Hi,

We'll see what happens with this ... today I think is the day!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 06:23
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:


If I were Vladimir Putin, I'd be very happy right now, especially with the US going down the sh*t pan too. Good days!
 
I agree with you that Putin has played a blinder.
 
When I was in Russia a couple of years ago the Russians were telling me that "Putin is a genius".  I didn't pay much attention to the comment at the time, but now I'm thinking they might be right.
 
The last couple of years have definitely gone Putin's way
 
However, that doesn't mean that I think leaving the EU is necessarily the wrong thing for the UK to do.  It's about what's right for the UK, not about what's right or wrong for Putin.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blacksword Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 03:01
Holding a referendum on EU membership was the biggest political miscalculation by a UK Prime Minister, since Suez.

If I were Vladimir Putin, I'd be very happy right now, especially with the US going down the sh*t pan too. Good days!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blacksword Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2019 at 02:57
Originally posted by Chaser Chaser wrote:

Originally posted by Davesax1965 Davesax1965 wrote:

The last civil war in the UK was 500 years ago. The country has been through several rough times in the interim (including two world wars) without any sign of massive internal strife. Never happen. 




Well I don't think the UK has been this divided in a very long time. Certainly not in living memory.

The world wars united the country against an external enemy, but this has split the country internally between different age groups, social classes, UK countries and ethnic groups.

The good news is that, in my experience, leavers and remainers are able to talk through the issues together without animosity, so that bodes well.

I hope you're right. What I do think is that if the government attempted to cancel Brexit then what little faith the ordinary people of our country have left in democracy would be gone forever.


That would be the ideal opportunity, and justification to bring in the dictatorship they've probably always wanted..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 10:21
Bear in mind that, if the UK crashes out with no deal, the biggest impact will not be on the UK.

The biggest impact will be on the Republic of Ireland.

80% of Ireland's exports pass through the UK.

Most if it's beef exports are to the UK (and Ireland has a big rural economy). Beef would attract 60% tariffs in a no deal scenario, which would cripple the Irish beef industry.

Ireland has already told the EU it will need to be bailed out in a no deal Brexit scenario

The pain certainly would not be confined to the UK
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rogerthat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 09:51
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

no doubt...and I'm quite sure a lot of thought has gone into this on the EU side... but for many of those reasons one can see the EU (has and is) playing hardball with the U.K. 

I do think the complete f**kery that is plainly on display out of the UK on how they have handled this will likely not lead the EU to extend any deadline. Again.. if there was any hope that it might make a difference.. then yeah. One could see it, but otherwise.. it is just delaying the enitable. The UK will have the binary choice..  crash out.. and burn... or revoke Art. 50 and perhaps come back later once there is a political will to stomach some unpleasant realties that leaving will entail. 


I agree that the Corbyn sh*t show doesn't help matters at all. But I remember even in the immediate aftermath of the brexit referendum results, the reactions from EU were very hardline and hostile. Look, when the people of a country made a choice, it has to be respected no matter how disagreeable the choice they may be. EU does not run Britain's govt anyway and it was not for them to comment on the decision. They should instead have offered a divorce on amicable terms. That would have been the adult and rational thing to do. If Britain has behaved like a pampered school brat oblivious of its true place in the 21st century world order, EU has been like Marie Antoinette in its attitude. Yeah, keep playing hardball until the EU itself breaks up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 09:15
no doubt...and I'm quite sure a lot of thought has gone into this on the EU side... but for many of those reasons one can see the EU (has and is) playing hardball with the U.K. 

I do think the complete f**kery that is plainly on display out of the UK on how they have handled this will likely not lead the EU to extend any deadline. Again.. if there was any hope that it might make a difference.. then yeah. One could see it, but otherwise.. it is just delaying the enitable. The UK will have the binary choice..  crash out.. and burn... or revoke Art. 50 and perhaps come back later once there is a political will to stomach some unpleasant realties that leaving will entail. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rogerthat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 09:14
Originally posted by Chaser Chaser wrote:

I didn't see them backing down, but now I think they might (in terms of extending the Article 50 process, not anything else)

The key point is that there are elections to the European Parliament across Europe in May

At the same time there has been a big rise in anti-EU and far right parties across Europe.

The EU is worried that the far right is going to win big in the May elections.

If the EU refuses to grant the UK an extension and forces it to crash out with no deal, which will hurt economies across Europe, how will that play out with populist voters in the EU?

Will they blame the UK, or (more likely) will they blame the EU for its intransigence?

And will they then punish the EU at the polls?

Something for the EU to think about I think

I agree that ideally the EU should think about it.  But the way things have played out suggests to me that EU is more concerned with projecting power and maintaining its position and sees accommodation as a loss of face (this happened with Greece too).  Which brings me to...if they think a UK crash and burn will be the same as Greece (i.e self inflicted wounds for the exiting country with no impact on the EU), they are very much mistaken.  London is a major financial center for the EU as well and not just UK, so the contagion will spread.  

The all round insistence on stubbornly maintaining positions and daring the other to blink first that I see everywhere is worrying (we have Trump with the shutdown for another example).  This is how WWI happened.  Yes, we may not have outright war, but the world's leaders are putting us on a path of economic devastation due to similar delusions of grandeur as those that created the conditions for WWI. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 08:53
I didn't see them backing down, but now I think they might (in terms of extending the Article 50 process, not anything else)

The key point is that there are elections to the European Parliament across Europe in May

At the same time there has been a big rise in anti-EU and far right parties across Europe.

The EU is worried that the far right is going to win big in the May elections.

If the EU refuses to grant the UK an extension and forces it to crash out with no deal, which will hurt economies across Europe, how will that play out with populist voters in the EU?

Will they blame the UK, or (more likely) will they blame the EU for its intransigence?

And will they then punish the EU at the polls?

Something for the EU to think about I think
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 07:58
you hopefully have a better read on this than I do.. for I sure as hell don't seee the EU backing down.  

Mainly for the reason.. what difference will a couple of months make.  Perhaps.. PERHAPS if there was any sign that there was any kind of chance that the brokered separation agreement plus or minus a few tweaks can get approval in the UK Parliament.. 


Edited by micky - January 14 2019 at 07:59
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2019 at 06:31
Well, for anyone who's not a BOB (Bored Of Brexit) it's maybe time for an update on where we are with Brexit, as crunch time approaches.
 
My expectation (and hope) is that the Theresa May deal will be rejected by Parliament tomorrow.
 
Following that we will have, I expect, a no confidence motion in the government put forward by Jeremy Corbyn, which I expect to be defeated.  Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, and, even the Tory Brexiteers don't want to see a Jeremy Corbyn government
 
So, our lame duck government will limp on.
 
What next?
 
Theresa May will go to Brussels to plead for more, but the door will be firmly slammed in her face (again)
 
Meanwhile MP's in parliament will do their best to put in legislation that prevents a "hard Brexit".
 
I expect Theresa May to then go to Brussels and plead for more time, and Brussels will agree to kick the can down the road for a few more months.
 
The saga continues.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2019 at 11:35
[QUOTE=siLLy puPPy]LOL, every time this topic shows up i'm reminded of this song for some reason.

LOL For me it's this one by Bernard Butler:
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2019 at 12:56
Originally posted by LAM-SGC LAM-SGC wrote:

Talk of civil war is without grounds. The country was just as bitterly divided on going into the EEC in the early 70s.     
 
Yes, but there was a decisive result in the 1975 referendum - 67% Yes to 33% No
 
In this referendum neither side has achieved a decisive victory, and there has been no decisive movement one way or the other since, therefore we are left in political limbo.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LAM-SGC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2019 at 11:41
Talk of civil war is without grounds. The country was just as bitterly divided on going into the EEC in the early 70s.     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Chaser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2019 at 10:36
Originally posted by Davesax1965 Davesax1965 wrote:

The last civil war in the UK was 500 years ago. The country has been through several rough times in the interim (including two world wars) without any sign of massive internal strife. Never happen. 




Well I don't think the UK has been this divided in a very long time. Certainly not in living memory.

The world wars united the country against an external enemy, but this has split the country internally between different age groups, social classes, UK countries and ethnic groups.

The good news is that, in my experience, leavers and remainers are able to talk through the issues together without animosity, so that bodes well.

I hope you're right. What I do think is that if the government attempted to cancel Brexit then what little faith the ordinary people of our country have left in democracy would be gone forever.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Davesax1965 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2019 at 08:34
The last civil war in the UK was 500 years ago. The country has been through several rough times in the interim (including two world wars) without any sign of massive internal strife. Never happen. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote siLLy puPPy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2019 at 07:47
^ more appropriate for the site. I even own that album!

https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
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