Brexit: A change of heart??

ExittheLemming wrote: The Dark Elf wrote: On the bright side, it will more than likely lead to the independence of Scotland and the reunification of Ireland. Great Britain will become Ain't Britain. As Scotland has already voted in an independence referendum in 2014 with a 55% majority to remain in the UK, I'm not convinced this will happen as it smacks of a gerrymandered sequel: Brexit (Back to the Future Part 2) It was 52% of the whole of the UK that voted to leave the EU and it would clearly be an affront to any accepted version of democracy we have if both Northern Ireland and Scotland were not subject to this outcome. Reductio ad absurdum: You can slice the UK into progressively smaller and smaller sample sizes but that still won't result in an exemption from the referendum outcome for a Yorkshire, Armagh, Powys, Leeds, Lurgan, Llandrindod Wells etc which may have voted remain.

ExittheLemming wrote: Given that it was either a pedigree malamute puppy shaved and squeezed into a suit or an unshaven Marxist disguised as a supply teacher, the UK electorate must have felt their choice was a toss up between being strangled or drowned. The one weird thing I've never got about 'comrade' Corbyn: why was this throwback to mid 70's trade union paranoia and leather elbow patches so popular with the yoof innit? For me, the SNP and Lib Dems, as the only two parties sending out an unambiguous 'Remain' message, merely conspired to split the Labour vote. Corbyn was always a lukewarm remainer but a committed reformer of the EU and I suspect this ambivalence ultimately cost his party an election. It also seems abundantly clear that in Europe, they are moving inexorably closer with every passing year towards a bipartite political landscape where the only credible choices will become centrist social democracy or far right conservatism. Doesn't that sound a bit like...the USA?

On the bright side, it will more than likely lead to the independence of Scotland and the reunification of Ireland. Great Britain will become Ain't Britain.

So that was that then. I'd have loved to believe in what you wrote, lazland, but alas...

There must be a few British fathers who wish they'd pulled out in time

Edited by Lewian - September 16 2019 at 11:11

Lewian wrote: I've seen a poll in the Guardian today for a general election that had Tories at 37% and Brexit Party at 13% (plus UKIP at 1). Seems that no deal doesn't scare off a majority these days. As much as I hate that, it makes me think that Boris will get his general elections maybe with some delay after having delayed Brexit to 31 January by the recently passed law, and then he'll win a majority together with the Brexit party and will get his way. There are seemingly enough people who love Boris or Farage so much that food and medicine shortages don't worry them much.

The polls are, I believe, misleading. Not only the fact that they regularly get things wrong (at least the last two elections and the referendum itself), but the electoral landscape is extremely difficult to predict.

There is no doubt amongst any political observers that the Lib Dems will take seats from the Tories in remain voting areas where the thought of Corbyn as PM will cause mass panic. Further, they will also do rather well in their formerly traditional areas such as SW England, Mid Wales, and certain parts of Scotland, where there are strong traditions of Liberalism (although not, note, the metropolitan variety).

The Tories are also, I believe, in for a massive stuffing in Scotland. Nobody should underestimate just how much the likes of Johnson, and his type of Tory, are hated up there. Ruth Davidson detoxified the brand a wee bit, but now she is gone, quite clearly for political as well as family reasons, I reckon up to ten seats will be lost.

So, Johnson will have to hoover up Labour leave voting seats in the Midlands and Oop North. Many commentators and recent interviews with the public would seem to suggest that this may well be the case. I don't think so. There are constituencies up there, alongside the South Wales Valleys, where you could put up a mangy dog with a red rosette for election, and it would get in. A fair few of them may well vote Brexit Party, and Farage, but Conservative? No chance, certainly not in enough numbers. The leave vote will be split, and most of them will remain Labour.

So, I still go by my original thoughts as expressed here. An election will solve absolutely bugger all. We will still have a hung Parliament, and a majority of its members remain, or at least "Soft Brexit", leaning.

I also, in spite of optimistic reports in the papers in recent days suggesting we are close to a deal (which I personally think are a load of cobblers - there is no way the EU will give away too much until it is sure of the volatile political outcomes in the UK), I don't think we will ever leave the EU, certainly not in the form which is beloved by the Brexit ultras.

Ain't going to happen. There are far too many powerful forces against it, and I hope it will be noted that this particular polemic of mine does not make the case either way. An utter mess, for which Cameron and the preceding politicians and overall establishment who created the conditions for the vote in 2016, should be utterly ashamed.

Edited by lazland - September 15 2019 at 09:23

Lewian wrote: I've seen a poll in the Guardian today for a general election that had Tories at 37% and Brexit Party at 13% (plus UKIP at 1). Seems that no deal doesn't scare off a majority these days. As much as I hate that, it makes me think that Boris will get his general elections maybe with some delay after having delayed Brexit to 31 January by the recently passed law, and then he'll win a majority together with the Brexit party and will get his way. There are seemingly enough people who love Boris or Farage so much that food and medicine shortages don't worry them much.

Chaser wrote: rogerthat wrote: I too believe UK needs a second referendum. And this isn't even a plea on behalf of Remain. The problem isn't even the Remainers. May had a deal and the ERG wouldn't let it go through. Why? Because the original referendum created a false binary option which didn't exist. There is only one way to Remain but myriad ways to Leave. A referendum clearly identifying different alternatives to leave would at least clarify what the people want. And if the people cannot agree on the shape of Brexit they want, they cannot expect those who don't want to leave to align either. Leave means Leave clearly doesn't work. If it did, UK would have left the EU quite a few months ago.   A second referendum will solve nothing.   I agree with you that the binary choice of "Leave" or "Remain" gave no guidance on what "Leave" meant or how the UK should leave the EU.   However, a referendum with multiple leave choices just won't work.   Suppose we did this and the results were:   Remain:  48%   Leave with the Governments negotiated deal: 17%   Leave with No Deal: 35%   You couldn't possibly conclude from this that the people had voted to "Remain", since overall 52% of voters still selected a leave option.   But neither could you say that there is a mandate for leaving with "No Deal", since only 35% of voters actually voted for that.   So, we would be left exactly where we started, in limbo, with no clear idea how to proceed.   Another referendum is only worthwhile if there has been a DECISIVE shift in public opinion (70/30 one way or the other) and, as far as I can tell, public opinion remains split down the middle on the issue.   And to be clear, a 52/48 victory for "Remain" is not a solution either.

Sean Trane wrote: lazland wrote: Sean Trane wrote:   BTW, are referendums obliged to follow the normal electioral count rules (favouring the smaller counties at the detriment of the bigger counties)? Oe should they be 1 vote counts for 1 vote and not 1.25 because living in the Lake District or the Welsh hills? Hugues, the general election, if there is another one, would be held on a constituency basis, as are all elections. So, I live in the constituency of East Carmarthenshire and Dinefwyr. My vote is equal to all votes cast in that constituency, and the candidate with the most votes gets to be an MP. My vote has no impact upon the votes cast in, say, Birmingham North. If there is another referendum, which I believe is still unlikely, then it is the total votes cast across the country for remain or leave, or whatever the question is, and a simple majority wins. I believe it highly unlikely that any future Prime Minister will ever agree to a referendum in the near future on any subject given the mess the last one caused. We are a parliamentary democracy, and with good reason.   my comment was maybe not reflecting what I meant to say, I'll address this issue I created when I have more time.       As for organizing another referendum , it may seem absurd to you (and probably a majority of UK'ers), but it may be the only solution to end the actual quagmire... If Leave wins again, it will kill the debate... and now that everyone is more aware of the consequences (and not just the immigration issues) if Remain wins (as most everyone feels it will, except for the BoJo-Barrage crowds), it will also cut the debate short

I too believe UK needs a second referendum. And this isn't even a plea on behalf of Remain. The problem isn't even the Remainers. May had a deal and the ERG wouldn't let it go through. Why? Because the original referendum created a false binary option which didn't exist. There is only one way to Remain but myriad ways to Leave. A referendum clearly identifying different alternatives to leave would at least clarify what the people want. And if the people cannot agree on the shape of Brexit they want, they cannot expect those who don't want to leave to align either. Leave means Leave clearly doesn't work. If it did, UK would have left the EU quite a few months ago.