Covid-19 and the madness of crowds |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 00:19 | ||||
Yes and let me make an argument here from a pure business perspective. Even if people don't die of it, if they are infected, they are out of action for a minimum two weeks. Now what would you prefer? To implement social distancing, impose WFH and cut down productivity by 20-30% tops and keep things chugging along? Or to risk one person getting infected and force the entire floor into a lockdown? This happened in our company's UAE office by the way. The top management still refused to learn the right lessons from it but luckily Mumbai's municipal corporation took the decision out of corporates' hands by forcing minimum 50% work from home to be implemented. It's a huge loss for the nation's financial capital but with a population of over 20 million, we cannot afford a large proportion of it getting infected. Our healthcare 'system', such as it is, wouldn't possibly be able to handle it. This is not fear, this is just being careful. Yes, the economic impact is bad but it would be much, much worse if the virus was allowed to spread unmitigated with zero precautions. It has worked in China and it will work elsewhere if people were less resistant to adjusting their lives for a temporary period. I understand that this is easier said than done for those who are at the lower end of the economic stratum or those who work in outdoor experience based jobs like restaurants or amusement parks which are the worst hit. But there are many of us who are in fact able to take these precautions and we should. Not because we are going to get it and it would be awful but because we shouldn't be carriers of the disease.
Edited by rogerthat - March 18 2020 at 00:22 |
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13721 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 02:10 | ||||
Actually, I am not altogether sure that the economic impact would be much much worse if the virus were allowed to spread unmitigated. I believe that the measures being taken will have the direst impact in the medium term on people’s livelihoods. This morning, it has been reported that recorded cases have risen to 200,000. That is a number which sounds very big, but not too big that our brains cannot comprehend it. The world population, meanwhile, is stated to be 7.8 billion. Work out the maths. It means that something like 0.003% of the world have been recorded as infected, if the figures are accurate. The virus was allowed to spread pretty much unmitigated for at least two months in China. There are quite a few of them about. In the same way, last week I was travelling across the U.K. with work in busy trains and tubes and offices. The draconian measures really are a wee bit too late to stop the potential spread over the last few weeks. In reality, there are probably many more people infected. Let’s say it is understated five fold, and it is a million, because the other 800,000 suffered no more than mild symptoms not requiring any tests or self isolation. Of course, if that is the case, it reduces the death rate of this virus by a fair margin, to less than 1%. Or, to put it another way, you probably have a 99%+ chance of not dying. Without wishing to upset anyone affected, or worried, I am simply trying to put all of this in perspective. If this is a virus attempt to wipe out civilisation on earth, then it is a pretty piss poor attempt. The damage from the panic, fear, and loathing created will, believe me, be far more lasting and damaging.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:07 | ||||
I don't know anyone who thinks this is a civilisational apocalypse come in the form of a virus. The singular aspect of it though that has govts advocating drastic measures is how quickly it spreads/has spread. It will be impossible for healthcare systems anywhere to handle (outside of small and prosperous nations like Korea) if it is allowed to spread unrestricted. Everybody realises they are behind the curve but all that is being done is to limit the damage as far as possible. I do not buy your view that it is probably already too late to contain the damage. Not all countries have the same people-to-people contact with China that, say, Italy has. Trump was criticised for blocking travel from China but it was the correct step to take while not enough by itself by any means.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13721 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:15 | ||||
No? Really? Have you been watching, listening, and reading the news lately?
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:21 | ||||
I READ the news and since I don't live in UK and don't have to read tabloids, nothing I have read makes me ALARMED but certainly cautious and careful. I have long since stopped WATCHING news because in my country, as in the US, TV 'news' is just an excuse for the anchors and debate participants to yell at the screen and whip up hysteria. It may be a virus now but it was Muslims/KKK/SJWs/incels depending on the specific network bias earlier. OK, I will amend it a little, I only watch a morning news segment on the news channel NDTV which still tries to keep some reporting format programs alive while having to conform to the debate fetish of its competitors. Likewise I may watch the channel's 8 PM bulletin because it is again a pure NEWS bulletin. I do not want to know what 'opinion makers' think about covid. I form opinions based on the news, I don't need others telling me what to think through a TV screen.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13721 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:25 | ||||
And on this, we agree There is a huge amount of hysteria, and it is not limited, I am afraid, to the tabloid press here.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:41 | ||||
Well, news channels whip up hysteria on all sorts of things. My only concern is we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. There are legitimate reasons why the world has imposed an economic contraction on itself in the face of this virus. Stocking up toilet paper or guns, however, are clearly panic driven responses to the situation.
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 03:56 | ||||
To me, this is definitely a panic on the apocalypse mode, or soon will be. Unfortunately, this is not the generation that put up with the Blitz. Life has become way too easy for most, with wars being waged across the seas while we go on with our mostly cushy lives, especially in the US. A very dour attitude on my part, but I feel that it's true.
Edited by SteveG - March 18 2020 at 04:37 |
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Guldbamsen
Special Collaborator Retired Admin Joined: January 22 2009 Location: Magic Theatre Status: Offline Points: 23104 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 04:04 | ||||
I started out puking my guts out at around 3:30 this morning. Felt like I was part of this unholy rollercoaster. Also brilliant timing as today is the only day I was scheduled to work for two weeks
Anyway I am currently in 48 hours apartment quarantine even if my doc says that the puking doesn’t necessarily mean corona virus..but better safe than sorry. Truth be told I am fairly certain it is the pinched nerve in my left side making trouble yet again. There were no sounds this morning but right this minute it sounds as if someone or something opened up a big flask of sparkling water inside of me...and I have come to know that sensation well by now. Always seems to wreck havock on my balance and general nervous system..and then something releases and I feel much better. I’m counting on this being a somewhat strong take on that |
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“The Guide says there is an art to flying or rather a knack. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.”
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13721 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 04:11 | ||||
^ won’t be the virus, David, but I hope you feel better.
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 04:23 | ||||
My son used to get the same symptoms whenever he had to work. Not likely to be the virus, but feel better David.
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Guldbamsen
Special Collaborator Retired Admin Joined: January 22 2009 Location: Magic Theatre Status: Offline Points: 23104 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 04:30 | ||||
Thanks for the consolation Steve - I too am fairly certain that it isn’t the virus...but yeah this morning it felt so strange with the incessant puking and what I deemed was a slight fever - on top of everything that’s been going on with this infernal virus..so my first thought was naturally that I’d contracted the Toyota corolla...even after all my precautions ie having stopped the whole French kissing thing (which I DO miss enormously)
I feel like a shower and some folky music would do me good. Cheers Steve - take care buddy Edith: that, Ladies and gents, was the ol’ two Steves with one stone Edited by Guldbamsen - March 18 2020 at 04:40 |
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“The Guide says there is an art to flying or rather a knack. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.”
- Douglas Adams |
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chopper
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: July 13 2005 Location: Essex, UK Status: Offline Points: 20030 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 05:35 | ||||
Managed to get 2 packets of bog roll this morning! At last supermarkets are doing the sensible thing and limiting items to 3 each (not so good when there's 4 of us but not a massive problem).
We hit Sainsbury's at 7:30 today and managed to get most stuff we needed, I think it'll be a bigger problem if they have staff shortages due to illness.
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 06:07 | ||||
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Junges
Forum Senior Member Joined: February 19 2006 Location: Brazil Status: Offline Points: 646 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 06:37 | ||||
Forget it..
Edited by Junges - March 18 2020 at 06:38 |
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dougmcauliffe
Forum Senior Member Joined: February 23 2019 Location: US Status: Offline Points: 3895 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 06:56 | ||||
Agree, I speak about the US but it sucks the media has to be so far to one side when really, the average American falls more into the middle.
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The sun has left the sky...
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Shadowyzard
Forum Senior Member Joined: February 24 2020 Location: Davutlar Status: Offline Points: 4506 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 07:10 | ||||
Crowds suck, so does madness. So madness of crowds sucks big time!
Edited by Shadowyzard - March 18 2020 at 07:18 |
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 07:16 | ||||
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chopper
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: July 13 2005 Location: Essex, UK Status: Offline Points: 20030 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 07:54 | ||||
What was I supposed to forget? I forget.
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Mascodagama
Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 5111 |
Posted: March 18 2020 at 07:59 | ||||
Certainly made me feel better, anyway. From one of my favourite albums of all time.
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Soldato of the Pan Head Mafia. We'll make you an offer you can't listen to.
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