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Basic Income

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Topic: Basic Income
Posted By: Finnforest
Subject: Basic Income
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 15:30
The idea of Basic Income is that everyone gets a check, guaranteed, with no strings attached, and with NO requirement to work, or look for work.  A basic income to live on.  What they do from there is up to them.  If people choose to live very frugally, perhaps they would not work at all and pursue other passions.  If people want an elite lifestyle, they are free to work as aggressively as ever to achieve that lifestyle.  One of the cited advantages are the cost savings that could come from the transition of multiple forms of welfare systems, each hamstrung by rules, regulations, and bureaucracies, into one easy program that doesn't ask questions.  Everyone gets a check regardless of whether they work.  Costs savings from simplification.

I'm very curious about this idea.  One strange thing is that it is an issue that is unpredictable from a partisan perspective.  Some on the Left and Right support it, others on both the Left and Right oppose it.  The reasons for this divide are laid out in this linked article from 538, which makes clear the idea is being studied but that good data is lacking.

I'm very curious to hear from guys like Brian and Pat, who are good with math and economics, what do you personally think of the workability of Basic Income?  And I'd like to hear anyone's opinion on the validity of the idea, without focusing on the politics.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/universal-basic-income/" rel="nofollow - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/universal-basic-income/



Replies:
Posted By: Atavachron
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 17:33
I've always been fond of the idea, and I suspect society wouldn't be much different with it; you'd have those that wanted to work and move ahead, and those that are happy painting a landscape.

Basic Income sounds like the sequel to Basic Instinct, wherein Sharon Stone's character has to actually work for a living.



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Posted By: Vompatti
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 18:02
Yes please. It would get rid of a lot of bureaucracy, the money that goes to welfare would be evenly distributed, and I wouldn't have to send a new application every month. Beer



Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 18:08
I like the idea but I have no idea how it would be implemented, there are a lot of ways to make people worse off than they already are. Personally I wish we had an economy that primarily functioned to meet the needs of the people rather than the profit of private individuals but that's neither here nor there.


Posted By: Vompatti
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 18:19
The only thing I'm worried about is that if everyone got the same amount prices would go up so that what you would get wouldn't be enough for rent and food and beer.


Posted By: JJLehto
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 20:27
Indeed, the idea does have some strange bedfellows in both support and opposition. 
You hear about this idea on the left today, but it was Milton Friedman who first proposed the "negative income tax" which was basically giving $ to everyone unconditionally. As you say, the thinking is usually a reduction in waste by streamlining it all, and avoiding welfare traps. 

I know Ontario (I believe?) is going to pass a moderate version of it, giving out $ the idea being if rent and etc is covered, all your income from work can go to other things, and you may even be freer with how you use it. 
Funny you made this thread, just a few days was listening to an NPR podcast where they discussed the idea, and how a town in Canada actually tried it long ago, but the program was scrapped and all the data was tucked away, totally unorganized and forgotten about for decades, and with laws saying they can't contact participants....the researcher found it impossible to really analyzeCry 

My take on it? 
Hmmmmmm there's a lot of different ways to look at this. 

1: Morally: Personally, I'm a pro work liberal. I have always believed in government job programs. This way people who are left behind by the labor market can be have a solid living, but be put to work for society. Infrastructure, environmental, child/elderly care all sorts of things that are very beneficial to the country. I personally prefer it over a lump sum of money. There's no right or wrong to this, just what you feel. I'd rather people be put to work in a beneficial fashion. Not only is it good for the country, but it will make people feed good, we generally want to feel useful and that we are earning our living. 

I can support a small, supplemental amount I suppose. However, I would not be personally supportive of an amount high enough one could live on. 

2: Economically: It really depends on the amount. If small, it shouldn't cause any perverse incentive, (aka people not looking for work).
I am not sure if inflation is a fear, because depending on the amount...it may not be any more than we spend already on welfare. I suppose there could be issues with things like rent, if a lump sum was giving out everyone could then flock to housing and cause issues. If the program is specifically targeted perhaps this could be avoided. Like, "Hey Bob, you need $X per month for rent, so you Bob will get that. Alice needs $Y so she will get Y"  but this would of course require oversight, planning and would defeat the purpose of it being a simplifying process. I also wonder if this would cause rent to increase. If $500/month is suddenly given to you, well hey as a landlord why dont I just raise it? You can cover it after all. 

There may need to be some time of price control. 

This is partly what happens with college in the US. Because the price can be covered through gov aid, many colleges simply raise their price. It's also fueled by the fact many people want college, more than seats available, and of course everyone needs housing, so I think this type of specific inflation could be an issue. 

OK sorry, I didn't pre think this post, just kinda started rambling on as I ponderLOL

Basically: It depends on the level. If small and supplemental I don't see much issue, and could support it. 
If larger (even able to live on solely) I am far more unsure. Since you asked personally, I am not toooo into the idea. I'd rather jobs be provided by the government at a good wage. This should accomplish much of the same thing (everyone having money, less need for welfare) but has the advantage in my book that people can be productive for society, and they can earn a solid living (let's say $15/hr) with less fear of inflation and disruption. 


Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 20:48
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Funny you made this thread, just a few days was listening to an NPR podcast where they discussed the idea, and how a town in Canada actually tried it long ago, but the program was scrapped and all the data was tucked away, totally unorganized and forgotten about for decades, and with laws saying they can't contact participants....the researcher found it impossible to really analyzeCry

I heard something about it being tried in Canada just the other day too. I think on some political vid, if I find it I'll see if I can find a source.


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 22:12
Thanks Brian for the thoughtful reply. 

Couple things.  Lets say the amount would be $2500/month for sake of discussion.  I think the intent would be for people who don't wish to work, they could live on it provided they were frugal.  They might have to move to somewhere less trendy...obviously SF and Manhattan are out of the question.  But there are places you can live on that. 

I think its very important that it would be tried as "no questions/no rules" because as soon as you start putting conditions on it, you need that bureaucracy to support and enforce.  The simplicity of "one amount, no questions" is where you get the savings to pay for it?

Speaking rhetorically now as I'm sure how I really feel...but for discussion....maybe the disincentive to work you mention should not necessarily be viewed as bad.  Automation is reducing more and more jobs.  But even if that wasn't the case, isn't part of the appeal needed to coalesce enough support that we as citizens should no longer have to teabag corporations just to survive?  Should no longer have to put up with their bullsh*t just to afford food?  It seems the appeal of the idea is that people who want the two fine cars, the lake home, the golf membership....they will have to work their ass off to be wealthy enough for that lifestyle.  But different kind of people who enjoy their free time for art, writing, whatever, could afford a basic frugal life without having to bow to the corporate (or govt) masters.  It would seem this could work for both types of people, those who want it all, and those who just prefer to have their time rather than material wealth? 

Inflation I can't speak to...that is where it gets sticky.  You'd know better, but I would think it might spike as the plan rolled out, but eventually level out and be not much different than the effect current welfare programs have?




Posted By: zachfive
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 22:45
If this idea is on the table may I suggest that we also consider giving up on money all together. Creating a new zeitgeist here people.


Posted By: Man With Hat
Date Posted: April 27 2016 at 22:53
I support this, but then I'm a bit of a bohemian at  heart.

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Posted By: DDPascalDD
Date Posted: April 28 2016 at 03:24
Here in The Netherlands we are already kind of close to this. You will always get enough money to live from (just enough to make a living) if you are wanting to work but can't at the moment, very simply put.

I think making it a standard for everyone without conditions is a good idea. But people should indeed have to work for every luxury they'd want.
The only thing I'm questioning is where all that money comes from... It could be well the case that a lot of money pressing (so inflation indeed) is required, the income from income taxes will also dissapear.

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Posted By: Meltdowner
Date Posted: April 28 2016 at 07:21
That exists in Portugal, I know some families that live with that: they live in a cheap house in a village and receive money for each member of the family but since they are considered poor, they'll also get free food, clothes, education, etc. I predict many more will follow that example in the future since workers are paying more and more taxes and retirement pensions are getting smaller to pay for all that. Not to mention that transportation (even public) is awfully expensive. People that would receive the minimum wage probably earn more by staying at home.


Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 20:58
As I get older I have a real problem about weighing in on an issue in any substantive way unless I've spent the necessary work to really understand the issue. I certainly haven't done that here, but I'll say a general thing or two.

I like the idea in that it achieves the same goals as many of our current welfare programs without the administrative overhead. This should keep costs down some but more importantly it should eliminate a lot of the discriminatory policing that currently goes on which is really my primary concern here.

People worry about abuse which can happen under this framework, but I really think it's kinda naive. Some seem worried that the money will be squandered on drugs, gambling, etc rather than providing basic necessities for the families receiving them. Anyone who thinks that I think pretty clearly has never lived in a neighborhood where welfare is prevalent. EBT cards are just another form of currency. I may or may not purchase them frequently at a discount myself. Also, stores place no restrictions on goods which can be bought in practice while ostensibly following the legal requirements. So I don't really see how anything would change by a UBI.

Now I don't necessarily agree with the UBI, and I think my political philosophy is sufficiently well known to not have to elaborate. However, it seems more humane and more efficient than our current arrangement. If nothing else it would eliminate the stigma associated with utilizing welfare, and the unfortunate racism that comingles itself with that stigma, by making the medium of exchange indistinguishable between benefactors and non benefactors of welfare.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 21:01
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

I am not sure if inflation is a fear, because depending on the amount...it may not be any more than we spend already on welfare. I suppose there could be issues with things like rent, if a lump sum was giving out everyone could then flock to housing and cause issues. If the program is specifically targeted perhaps this could be avoided. Like, "Hey Bob, you need $X per month for rent, so you Bob will get that. Alice needs $Y so she will get Y"  but this would of course require oversight, planning and would defeat the purpose of it being a simplifying process. I also wonder if this would cause rent to increase. If $500/month is suddenly given to you, well hey as a landlord why dont I just raise it? You can cover it after all. 


I'm not sure we would see this. If the people receiving the negative tax are the same as currently receiving welfare then we're just changing the liquidity of their assets. No scarcity issue is being changed so the landlords catering to these people are already sort of targeting the margin and raising rents would probably just result in them driving out their customer base I suspect.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 21:26
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

I am not sure if inflation is a fear, because depending on the amount...it may not be any more than we spend already on welfare. I suppose there could be issues with things like rent, if a lump sum was giving out everyone could then flock to housing and cause issues. If the program is specifically targeted perhaps this could be avoided. Like, "Hey Bob, you need $X per month for rent, so you Bob will get that. Alice needs $Y so she will get Y"  but this would of course require oversight, planning and would defeat the purpose of it being a simplifying process. I also wonder if this would cause rent to increase. If $500/month is suddenly given to you, well hey as a landlord why dont I just raise it? You can cover it after all. 


I'm not sure we would see this. If the people receiving the negative tax are the same as currently receiving welfare then we're just changing the liquidity of their assets. No scarcity issue is being changed so the landlords catering to these people are already sort of targeting the margin and raising rents would probably just result in them driving out their customer base I suspect.


But its not just the people "currently receiving welfare", BI would be every adult, except perhaps the very wealthy who could be means tested out.  Or maybe I misunderstood your point here. 


Posted By: Epignosis
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 21:39
We may be moving in that direction anyway with so many positions becoming automated.


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Posted By: Epignosis
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 21:42
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Couple things.  Lets say the amount would be $2500/month for sake of discussion.  I think the intent would be for people who don't wish to work, they could live on it provided they were frugal.  They might have to move to somewhere less trendy...obviously SF and Manhattan are out of the question.  But there are places you can live on that. 



That would make political districting even more interesting and controversial than it is now.


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Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 29 2016 at 22:20
Originally posted by Epignosis Epignosis wrote:

We may be moving in that direction anyway with so many positions becoming automated.

Fully automated luxury communism here we come!


Posted By: JJLehto
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 01:04
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Thanks Brian for the thoughtful reply.  

Couple things.  Lets say the amount would be $2500/month for sake of discussion.  I think the intent would be for people who don't wish to work, they could live on it provided they were frugal.  They might have to move to somewhere less trendy...obviously SF and Manhattan are out of the question.  But there are places you can live on that.  

I think its very important that it would be tried as "no questions/no rules" because as soon as you start putting conditions on it, you need that bureaucracy to support and enforce.  The simplicity of "one amount, no questions" is where you get the savings to pay for it?

Speaking rhetorically now as I'm sure how I really feel...but for discussion....maybe the disincentive to work you mention should not necessarily be viewed as bad.  Automation is reducing more and more jobs.  But even if that wasn't the case, isn't part of the appeal needed to coalesce enough support that we as citizens should no longer have to teabag corporations just to survive?  Should no longer have to put up with their bullsh*t just to afford food?  It seems the appeal of the idea is that people who want the two fine cars, the lake home, the golf membership....they will have to work their ass off to be wealthy enough for that lifestyle.  But different kind of people who enjoy their free time for art, writing, whatever, could afford a basic frugal life without having to bow to the corporate (or govt) masters.  It would seem this could work for both types of people, those who want it all, and those who just prefer to have their time rather than material wealth?  

Inflation I can't speak to...that is where it gets sticky.  You'd know better, but I would think it might spike as the plan rolled out, but eventually level out and be not much different than the effect current welfare programs have?


Thanks for the kind words btw, I finally am starting an econ program and clearly internet discussion is where it pays off!LOL

Yeah, that was just me kinda brainstorming, I am not sure at all it'd have any major impact on rent. It certainly wont have any impact on general inflation, especially at a reasonable level. 

Only reason I had potential concern about rents is it does remind me of college here in the states...With prices covered schools can raise prices, and people need/want it so not much there's no downward pressure. Basically demand far exceeding supply, and made even more so as it's subsidized. I could see perhaps a similar thing with rent/housing. People will need it still, even more so now with a cushion/basic income provided so without a control, I'd just wonder if rent prices could be raised and basically negate it.

That said, I have no idea. No one really does, makes it pretty fascinating to think about. 





Posted By: JJLehto
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 01:27
I've been hearing this idea usually coupled with the notion that this is indeed finally the era where machines replace most of our labor. So a basic income becomes more appealing, and sometimes people get into much more fanciful scenarios like replacing our monetary economy entirely. 
Guess we will see! 

For now, I like the idea of a wide scale jobs program at a good wage. At let's say $15/hr that's a bit over the $2500/month amount so could make a basic income not really necessary. True one can absolutely live on that amount, while it's no hip city...Central NJ is pretty darn pricey and I got by on roughly $15/hr. In terms of building savings and living well, it wasn't so great but I was out of the parents place, getting by fine, could enjoy nights out drinking or getting food regularly.  
Don't get me wrong, to get even $500 a month no strings attached would've make things a helluva lot easier! (Long as Scott didn't then realize he could raise our rent without any impactLOL)

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:



I'm not sure we would see this. If the people receiving the negative tax are the same as currently receiving welfare then we're just changing the liquidity of their assets. No scarcity issue is being changed so the landlords catering to these people are already sort of targeting the margin and raising rents would probably just result in them driving out their customer base I suspect. 


This is a good point, but that's for those who would simply be seeing their welfare restructured but not amount changed. For people who are working and getting by with little or none, could it perhaps be an issue then? Like if I make $2500 a month and pay $500 in rent, then a BI comes in and I get $500 for free, Im now getting $3000 a month, why not raise rents? If within this amount I'd not be priced out. 
As it was said, this idea usually is based on going to most people. 

But yeah, it's not an outrageous idea, it doesn't seem terribly disruptive and if we are actually seeing the permanent replacement of labor with machines, the idea will make even more sense. For now, I'd only want to see this at a small level, like how some countries do a few hundred a month. 
As for crappy jobs being lost not being a bad thing, you are right about that! It's always been the argument. That's progress. We may have lost jobs due to children not being to work in mines but no one will say that was a bad thing. 



Posted By: Blacksword
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 01:35
The liberal lefty in me likes the idea of pulling people out of poverty but the conseravtive in me doesn't like the idea of encouraging laziness. Would it do that, and would the devil make work for idle hands etc?

Economically how would it work? Specifically if everyone overall became much wealthier due to this policy what would that do the interest rates and the cost of living. Would the basic income be a meaningless amount of money without regular huge increases to keep up? Where does that cycle stop?

Maybe in the west we'll have to move to a system like this one day anyway as manufacturing jobs and heavy industry shuts down and heads eastward and blue collar job oportunities dry up.

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Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 09:25
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

The liberal lefty in me likes the idea of pulling people out of poverty but the conseravtive in me doesn't like the idea of encouraging laziness. Would it do that, and would the devil make work for idle hands etc?

Well I guess it would depend on how you define laziness and work. If you just mean it as either working for an employer or not, then there would be more laziness. But if you were to consider the usefulness of the particular job for the rest of society, then I think an absence of useless jobs wouldn't be a bad thing. A garbage collector will always be useful, but there are many bureaucratic jobs that don't necessarily contribute to anything. http://goo.gl/PZQr7Y" rel="nofollow - Here is an article on that subject.

Apparently PA's censor still catches naughty words in urls for some reason.


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 10:13
I think of my old friend who was a writer and and fervent leftist.  He flat out refused to work and hated the premise that we should all have to submit to that system.  (Bless his heart, he never moved out of his parents home so he could afford to live that viewpoint for a long time).  God, if you folks could have heard some of his long, late night lectures about life....I'll never forget it

But he believed that he should be able to stay home, write, paint, and live the life he wanted to while being supported by a BI program.  He believed that such payments were achievable and that he shouldn't have to kiss anyone's ass to collect...he believed a quality society would allow artists and free thinkers to exist and do their thing without having to succeed in the marketplace, or jump through anyone's hoop.  He believed people had the right to reject "work" and contribute in their own way.   He believed the simplification that a BI would bring to what is currently a complicated, nonsensical system would be a huge benefit.  I believe with near certainty he would be around today if we had BI, which makes me wonder how many lives would be saved by a universal system of complete support, income and health, with no strings attached and no work requirement. 



Posted By: rogerthat
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 11:05
To bring a third world perspective to this discussion, in an advanced economy operating at the frontier, this makes sense in the short/medium term because all requisite facilities to lead your life are already at hand.  Basically what we call public amenities.  What happens in developing economies is there are many areas where setting up of such facilities, including even healthcare, are deemed unviable by the private sector and the government has to step in to provide them.  You can argue that that is bad economics but dang there are people living there and they don't have the means to shift to where they can avail of these amenities either.   My argument is moving to UBI presumes that the private sector will provide for all necessary amenities that are presently under govt.  Otherwise, paying a UBI and also having the govt run hospitals/post offices where the private sector thinks it's a waste makes no sense; it would only be a duplication of expenditure in effect. While we typically think of only stuff like food stamps (or direct hand out of subsidised/free food in developing nations) when it comes to subsidies, even services like the above are subsidised, often heavily, by the govt and a private sector player may either price it out of reach of the poor or decide against operating it. If you're going to pay a UBI to everyone, including the middle and upper classes who don't need it, then it has to go hand in hand with eliminating government from the upkeep of public amenities.  The central question then is to what extent that is feasible.  


Posted By: Ier
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 12:29
Originally posted by DDPascalDD DDPascalDD wrote:

Here in The Netherlands we are already kind of close to this. You will always get enough money to live from (just enough to make a living) if you are wanting to work but can't at the moment, very simply put.

I think making it a standard for everyone without conditions is a good idea. But people should indeed have to work for every luxury they'd want.
The only thing I'm questioning is where all that money comes from... It could be well the case that a lot of money pressing (so inflation indeed) is required, the income from income taxes will also dissapear.

"Here in The Netherlands we are already kind of close to this. You will always get enough money to live from (just enough to make a living) if you are wanting to work but can't at the moment, very simply put."

Eh... No, NOT true! Very long story short: I graduated (studied microbiology), couldn't find any work, so I had to ask for a welfare... Lived without money for half a year before I finally got 'approved', and in the meantime I had to search actively EVERY DAY for a job and I had to say YES to every job that came onto my path, if I refused I got cut off 100%. I had to follow stupid required courses (or got cut off again), had to go to every useless appointment etc... I went near to berserk because I got cut off on my welfare for the most stupid reasons, which were mostly their fault... Anyway, it even became a long lawsuit to get my welfare back... Which I lost of course (and my lawyer was a very sweet man and had never seen such a terrible and devastating lawsuit)

So yes, a basic income without any bureaucratic bullsh*t would be nice, because I have no income for years at the moment. I'm homeless, have no health insurance and every day I live in fear that the police will put me into jail (or something like that) because I have a terrible debts of unpaid bills and loans... 


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Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 12:40
Iris, very sorry to hear about this.....and hope things improve.  I didn't realize it was like that over there as well, I would have assumed Netherlands were very different from that experience.


Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 16:09
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

I think of my old friend who was a writer and and fervent leftist.  He flat out refused to work and hated the premise that we should all have to submit to that system.  (Bless his heart, he never moved out of his parents home so he could afford to live that viewpoint for a long time).  God, if you folks could have heard some of his long, late night lectures about life....I'll never forget it

But he believed that he should be able to stay home, write, paint, and live the life he wanted to while being supported by a BI program.  He believed that such payments were achievable and that he shouldn't have to kiss anyone's ass to collect...he believed a quality society would allow artists and free thinkers to exist and do their thing without having to succeed in the marketplace, or jump through anyone's hoop.  He believed people had the right to reject "work" and contribute in their own way.   He believed the simplification that a BI would bring to what is currently a complicated, nonsensical system would be a huge benefit.  I believe with near certainty he would be around today if we had BI, which makes me wonder how many lives would be saved by a universal system of complete support, income and health, with no strings attached and no work requirement.

Coincidentally, I've come across an essay today titled http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm" rel="nofollow - The Abolition of Work . It is pretty interesting.


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 16:10
Thanks Matt, I'll check it out.....and my friend salutes youLOL


Posted By: Raff
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:08
Another very interesting article on the subject: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/" rel="nofollow - http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/


Posted By: micky
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:25
interesting article darling..

one point hits close to home.

And the supply of these “non-college jobs” is shifting away from high-paying occupations, such as electrician, toward low-wage service jobs, such as waiter.

and internal forecasts are within the next 20 years half the current workforce will need to be replaced as we will dead or retired.. or both LOL

Those jobs are available now but you just don't take mr. Degree in Art History with a minor in English Lit and put him into a 13.2 kV transformer LOL Our job doesn't require a college education but it is highly sklilled.  Look at my crew over at Commonwealth.  One white, me, one black. and two not even born in this country. A Vietnamese and a Mexican.  The jobs are there for 'native born' folks.. but this country is has and always will have a cult of college education. I'm all for that, but certain jobs. Like mine are recession proof, high paying, and will never be phased out by robots technology (at least in many lifetimes ) but are looked down upon by many Americans.. including my dear ex-wife....as being grunt work.


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Posted By: micky
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:33
I often go back and think about that rather interesting book of social and political critiques in the guise of a zombie apocalypse novel.

World War Z

most people in this country simply don't do anything... produce anything. A bunch of mid level paper pushers or unskilled service industry which that article touched upon. Of course those jobs are easily replaceable and expendable and yes.. technology could well phase out a great many jobs a great many people in this country do hold.


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Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:47
I read a sobering article a while back too...also from Atlantic I think.

It said basically that the fervency to get every kid into college is a sham.  In the future, yes, there will be a few STEM jobs out there, but not that many.  As we push all our kids to aspire the STEM, the real need is going to be in jobs like Nursing, ElderCare, and I forgot the others...but essentially non glamorous are where almost ALL of the jobs are going to be. 

Instead, we are still telling every child they must have that big name degree.  And tons of debt.  Ridiculous. 


Posted By: micky
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:51
yep...

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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip


Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:56
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Thanks Matt, I'll check it out.....and my friend salutes youLOL

LOL Now that I am thinking of antiwork stuff I remember seeing this poster the other day:
http://ourdesignworks.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/tumblr_mbyxdarS5S1qz6f9yo1_r1_500.jpg



Posted By: TeleStrat
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:58
I hear what you're saying, Micky.
When I got out of the Army in 1971 I could have gone to college for four years and gotten paid  to go. 
But I chose to join a large construction union as a first year apprentice. We worked every day and went to school two nights a week but had no school during the summer just like a regular school year.
As it turned out, my GI Bill benefits still paid me during the four years I went to school.
As a journeyman I had high wages, excellent health care and now collect two pensions (since 2006).
We also had company supplied vehicles with gas credit cards. That alone added quite a bit to my annual income.
There were also advancement opportunities and I eventually went into the office (and to a fifty-two checks a year salary) as an estimator/project manager/draftsman. An air conditioned office sure beat a hot, dirty job site.
I did not once regret not going to college.

I don't really see the benefits of this basic income idea. Encouraging people to do nothing just doesn't sound like a good idea to me.


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 17:59
I like it Matt.  I've been working my ass off non stop since 1979 and I'm tired, ready to throw in the towel.  Not that I can afford to reallyLOL


Posted By: micky
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 18:09
Clap my decision to drop out and follow what interested me, not what was expected of me by my wife or my parents directly led to me losing both..neither could accept my decision to drop out (a semester short of graduating) but I never regret it.  Yes I could have had an easier job, perhaps an even higher paying one, but it would have been definitely have been one in which I am not challenged like me job does. If I f**k up I don't get chewed out. I die or get hurt, or worse. other do. I like that kind of pressure/challenge. And the job satisfaction? Short of teaching children.. I don't think any job has our level of job satisfaction. We do what few can do and more often than not we are helping people.

I do have a love hate relationship with the job. But generally I love it. Even to the point I'd never want that A/C office gig.. I love doing what I do and as long as I am physically up to doing it I plan on doing it till I am able tor retire or it kills me. Anyhow the point was I was trying to make. We do make damn good money, yes it is dangerous at times and often dirty nasty work but I haven't seen a single person laid off in the last 10 years for lack of work and as I noted above. Half the current workers in my field will be gone in the next 20 years. They need to be replaced.. and those still in the field.. will command TOP dollar. I have seen, been involved a few times in fact, in high bidding wars for ones services between companies. Good experienced electricians are like gold, and are paid accordingly. Thumbs Up


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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 18:13
Is our power grid really in as bad of shape as they say, Mick?  Falling apart and ripe for hacking?  Or is that a case of the media sensationalism?


Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 18:15
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

I like it Matt.  I've been working my ass off non stop since 1979 and I'm tired, ready to throw in the towel.  Not that I can afford to reallyLOL

Most people can't. LOLCry I am only 25 but I am already exhausted to the bone at the idea of having to work just to survive for the rest of my life.


Posted By: Raff
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 18:17
My last experience with almost full-time work (teaching Italian to military people) was so devastating that I have developed an aversion to work - and I was brought up by two very hard-working parents, who instilled in me the belief that work is one of the most important (if not the most important) forms of self-realization. I am still recovering from that experience, which nearly destroyed my self-esteem and did a lot of damage to my relationship with my fellow human beings. At my age, it's not really worth it any more.


Posted By: micky
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 18:22
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Is our power grid really in as bad of shape as they say, Mick?  Falling apart and ripe for hacking?  Or is that a case of the media sensationalism?


that is a area that is over my head and of my experience and expertise Jim. My job is set firmly between distribution and the customers per se. From those that do know, that I've talked to, it is like a lot of our infrastructure. Not enough investment in aging systems, who wants to spend money on it. It is like global warming.. when you have politicians only seeing the 5 feet in front their faces (ie getting relected) then you get the bullsh*t of cutting taxes and revenue and pushing off problems hopefully that won't arise until the current officeholders are safely retired or dead.

hacking? Oh yeah... look at what happened in the Ukraine. That is very much a concern...


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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 21:33
Originally posted by A Person A Person wrote:

Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

I like it Matt.  I've been working my ass off non stop since 1979 and I'm tired, ready to throw in the towel.  Not that I can afford to reallyLOL

Most people can't. LOLCry I am only 25 but I am already exhausted to the bone at the idea of having to work just to survive for the rest of my life.



I hear ya man.  Hang in there, you only gotta pull the cart another 50 years or so.  LOL 


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 21:39
Originally posted by Raff Raff wrote:

My last experience with almost full-time work (teaching Italian to military people) was so devastating that I have developed an aversion to work - and I was brought up by two very hard-working parents, who instilled in me the belief that work is one of the most important (if not the most important) forms of self-realization. I am still recovering from that experience, which nearly destroyed my self-esteem and did a lot of damage to my relationship with my fellow human beings. At my age, it's not really worth it any more.


So sorry to hear that Raff, I've dealt with an untenable situation myself the last couple years.  The effects of stress on a person do damage.  I hope very much the pain recedes for you. 


Posted By: rogerthat
Date Posted: April 30 2016 at 21:49
Originally posted by A Person A Person wrote:


Coincidentally, I've come across an essay today titled http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm" rel="nofollow - The Abolition of Work . It is pretty interesting.

Interesting that the article mentions third world peasant bastions and specifically India.  India still has a very large proportion of its population living in villages and predominantly occupied in agriculture.  The govt should do everything it can to empower the farmer and this ironically entails embracing free market policies - just letting the farmer sell his produce to whoever he desires and at a price of his choosing instead of regulating farm produce to subsidise industry and consumers at the expense of the farmer.  Also, to bring urban amenities to the villages so they don't NEED to come to the city.  Instead, economists are hell bent on advocating ways to shift more population to the cities which would not only be wasteful and destructive (of the environment) but borderline ruinous in the coming age of automation.  A farmer living in a village does not need a high level of income to subsist because the farm produce also provides for him and his family's needs.  It's a model ideally suited to a dystopian future where there are few blue or white collar jobs to go around and ways need to be invented to help people spend their time fruitfully in cities.  But no, we want dumb-smart cities that will have politicians and contractors laughing all the way to the bank while exerting a still greater toll on our natural resources and displacing farmers.  Not to mention the small detail of pushing a few more species of flora and fauna to extinction.


Posted By: Blacksword
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 06:24
Originally posted by A Person A Person wrote:

Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

The liberal lefty in me likes the idea of pulling people out of poverty but the conseravtive in me doesn't like the idea of encouraging laziness. Would it do that, and would the devil make work for idle hands etc?

Well I guess it would depend on how you define laziness and work. If you just mean it as either working for an employer or not, then there would be more laziness. But if you were to consider the usefulness of the particular job for the rest of society, then I think an absence of useless jobs wouldn't be a bad thing. A garbage collector will always be useful, but there are many bureaucratic jobs that don't necessarily contribute to anything. http://goo.gl/PZQr7Y" rel="nofollow - Here is an article on that subject.

Apparently PA's censor still catches naughty words in urls for some reason.



By laziness I mean choosing not to work at all. It's that simple. I know one person, a woman in her late thirties who believes that people should be allowed to opt out of working completely if they so wish and live funded entirely by the state. Apart from being a bone idle, spoilt as a child narcicist she is able bodied.

Sometimes problems cant be solved simply by slinging money at them. Especially if it's devalued worthless money.

I don't know. Maybe it's a good idea, but I think implementing such a policy would be disastrously complex and probably unworkable.

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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!


Posted By: AEProgman
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 07:46
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Is our power grid really in as bad of shape as they say, Mick?  Falling apart and ripe for hacking?  Or is that a case of the media sensationalism?


that is a area that is over my head and of my experience and expertise Jim. My job is set firmly between distribution and the customers per se. From those that do know, that I've talked to, it is like a lot of our infrastructure. Not enough investment in aging systems, who wants to spend money on it. It is like global warming.. when you have politicians only seeing the 5 feet in front their faces (ie getting relected) then you get the bullsh*t of cutting taxes and revenue and pushing off problems hopefully that won't arise until the current officeholders are safely retired or dead.

hacking? Oh yeah... look at what happened in the Ukraine. That is very much a concern...

Being in the power quality world (installing and troubleshooting UPS units, power conditioners, filters, PQ meters, etc...) for over 30 years here in the US, I believe hacking is much more of a serious threat than an old grid since most everything is processor/programming and network controlled, although I agree with Mickey.  There are some areas where not enough investment has been made, especially by the power companies themselves.  They will squeeze the last drop out of antiquated equipment until it is beyond repair.  Although I think our grid is in better physical shape than much of the international community.

This thread has been interesting to follow and has taken some different directions.  I fall into the middle somewhere as I understand and see each view, but I would not trust the extremists on each end of the spectrum.  Those wanting something for nothing and abusing the system, then those that would exploit it for more.  It would be a monster to implement and then who would you want to run it?


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Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 08:10
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

I am not sure if inflation is a fear, because depending on the amount...it may not be any more than we spend already on welfare. I suppose there could be issues with things like rent, if a lump sum was giving out everyone could then flock to housing and cause issues. If the program is specifically targeted perhaps this could be avoided. Like, "Hey Bob, you need $X per month for rent, so you Bob will get that. Alice needs $Y so she will get Y"  but this would of course require oversight, planning and would defeat the purpose of it being a simplifying process. I also wonder if this would cause rent to increase. If $500/month is suddenly given to you, well hey as a landlord why dont I just raise it? You can cover it after all. 


I'm not sure we would see this. If the people receiving the negative tax are the same as currently receiving welfare then we're just changing the liquidity of their assets. No scarcity issue is being changed so the landlords catering to these people are already sort of targeting the margin and raising rents would probably just result in them driving out their customer base I suspect.


But its not just the people "currently receiving welfare", BI would be every adult, except perhaps the very wealthy who could be means tested out.  Or maybe I misunderstood your point here. 


Well yes I realize that and the universal makes little sense otherwise, but I basically answered your question in terms of a negative income tax instead. I think most UBI plans are coupled with more aggressive progressiveness on income tax so that from the basic standpoint of how much money do you get handed to you, it's essentially the same thing as the UBI. Also though, my comment would still hold approximately I believe. Inflation isn't an equal opportunity employer and not all sectors can equally respond to opportunities to raise prices.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 08:11
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:



This is a good point, but that's for those who would simply be seeing their welfare restructured but not amount changed. For people who are working and getting by with little or none, could it perhaps be an issue then? Like if I make $2500 a month and pay $500 in rent, then a BI comes in and I get $500 for free, Im now getting $3000 a month, why not raise rents? If within this amount I'd not be priced out. 
As it was said, this idea usually is based on going to most people. 

But yeah, it's not an outrageous idea, it doesn't seem terribly disruptive and if we are actually seeing the permanent replacement of labor with machines, the idea will make even more sense. For now, I'd only want to see this at a small level, like how some countries do a few hundred a month. 
As for crappy jobs being lost not being a bad thing, you are right about that! It's always been the argument. That's progress. We may have lost jobs due to children not being to work in mines but no one will say that was a bad thing. 



Yeah at that point I don't really want to even stipulate as to the outcome without doing some research. I would suspect what you say is true.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 08:15
Originally posted by A Person A Person wrote:

Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

The liberal lefty in me likes the idea of pulling people out of poverty but the conseravtive in me doesn't like the idea of encouraging laziness. Would it do that, and would the devil make work for idle hands etc?

Well I guess it would depend on how you define laziness and work. If you just mean it as either working for an employer or not, then there would be more laziness. But if you were to consider the usefulness of the particular job for the rest of society, then I think an absence of useless jobs wouldn't be a bad thing. A garbage collector will always be useful, but there are many bureaucratic jobs that don't necessarily contribute to anything. http://goo.gl/PZQr7Y" rel="nofollow - Here is an article on that subject.

Apparently PA's censor still catches naughty words in urls for some reason.


I think Chomsky is a little utopian when he speaks to this point, but pretty much on the mark. Even if it causes people to be lazy in a very real sense, like staying at home and watching TV 16 hours a day, the fact that a parent is home with their children for example would probably be an order of magnitude more productive than working a minimal wage soul crushing job that would be more efficient if automated anyway.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: A Person
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 12:26
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

I think Chomsky is a little utopian when he speaks to this point, but pretty much on the mark. Even if it causes people to be lazy in a very real sense, like staying at home and watching TV 16 hours a day, the fact that a parent is home with their children for example would probably be an order of magnitude more productive than working a minimal wage soul crushing job that would be more efficient if automated anyway.

As someone who spends many days a week watching kids (not mine mind you) I have thought about that before and agree. Sometimes I wonder about that aspect of the descriptions of possible societies given by people like Chomsky, Kropotkin, and the like, it can seem a bit utopian at times, but ultimately I think there is less utopianism in it than not. I think Chomsky has said a truly utopian view would be to think that keeping the current system and expecting some sort of fundamental change.


Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 12:48
I referring to his specific point that without work people will pursue meaningful cultural and intellectual avenues. I don't think that's reasonable to assume for quorum of our current society. My point was that even if they don't there's social functions will can still be served. Though again I can also imagine negatives that would result too which is why hypothetical like this are kinda useless once you progress past a certain point.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Ier
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 15:21
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Iris, very sorry to hear about this.....and hope things improve.  I didn't realize it was like that over there as well, I would have assumed Netherlands were very different from that experience.

I hope so too. Thank you very much for your reply. Smile


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http://grendelhq.wordpress.com" rel="nofollow - My personal page


Posted By: rushfan4
Date Posted: May 01 2016 at 23:57
Holy crap!!!  Reading this thread, I think that I just became a Tea Party Conservative!!! As ideal as getting paid to sit home and watch TV 16 hours a day this is about the most completely ridiculous idea I have ever heard.  "Hey Joe...I've got this really great idea...why don't you become a doctor/lawyer/CPA, work your ass off 60 hours a week, make lots of money so you can afford two homes, three cars, and two golf club memberships....and as your reward pay 70% in income taxes so that the government can pay people to stay home and watch TV 16 hours a day".  Can you say lead balloon?  "What do you mean that there is no one working at the golf club today?  No caddies?  No waitstaff in the restaurant?  No washroom attendant?  Where are these people to pamper my rich ass?"  "Why the hell am I paying them to stay home and watch TV?  They should be here washing my balls!!!!"   etc etc etc.  

People need to make smarter decisions. Should I study for this exam or practice my keg stands?  Should I get a degree in underwater basketweaving so that I can say I have a college degree?  Or should I get a degree in a useful profession?  Am I more mechanically inclined person who would be better off going to technical school to learn a trade?  Should I spend $50k a year at college to go away out of state to get away from my parents so I can party or should I live at home with my parents as long as they will let me, work a job to pay for my college, and save up as much money as I can while doing so, so when I do finish college, I have practical job experience, and maybe enough money to move out on my own?   Trust me....I hate working as much as the next guy, but it will always be a necessary evil. 

On the other hand, I fully support making able-bodied welfare recipients earn their welfare by contributing to society.  egads, even if it means financially supporting "evil" private corporations to pay/train/supervise/co-ordinate these society improving labors and laborers.


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Posted By: Equality 7-2521
Date Posted: May 02 2016 at 06:50
It's kinda telling that you assume that everyone even gets the opportunity to ask themselves those questions.


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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "


Posted By: Vompatti
Date Posted: May 02 2016 at 07:30
Sitting at home does infinitely less harm to society than most work.


Posted By: Finnforest
Date Posted: May 02 2016 at 09:19
Andy, Jim....as to the concerns of unworkable complexity.  Actually, a BI set-up would be infinitely easier and less complex than the current US system, which has mountains of rules, regulation, and bloated bureaucracies to figure them all out and enforce them.  And they all vary depending on where you live, and there are lots of completely different programs, many kinds, so many different intermingling sets of rules.

All of that goes away with BI.  Far simpler.  One check for all, one amount, almost no regulation, and very little administration, which creates significant savings.   

Rather, the main questions revolve around how to fund it as well as inflationary worries.  Those things do need to be studied by smart people without politically clouded mindsets. 



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