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TGM: Orb 
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 21 2007
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Points: 8052
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 Posted: May 08 2015 at 09:56 |
 chopper wrote:
Blacksword wrote:
I wouldn't have said the left have a great economic record IMO, but that's not really the point. Their managenemt of the economy in the 70's was appalling,
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Not just the 70s, Gordon Brown flogged a load of our gold bullion that cost us billions of dollars. |
The Tories left a higher deficit as a proportion of GDP in 1997 than Labour did in 2010, the banking crisis and subsequent recession was a result of Reaganite/Thatcherite removals of the division between investment and saving banks (which New Labour admittedly colluded with) and the Coalition borrowed far more than Labour did for a decidedly underwhelming recovery and failed to meet their deficit targets (which was supposedly the whole point of their austerity measures). I'm not huge on New Labour's economic approach but the Conservatives have been consistently less competent economically for at least twenty five years now. (this is without even getting into the flagrant, unapologetic corruption of the Conservative party's relationship with privatisation, or the absolute unwillingness of the Conservatives to cancel ideological programs such as Workfare when it turns out they don't save any money and don't have any meaningful impact)
It's really very impressive that they've managed to spin their mismanagement as a willingness to make hard choices.
Edited by TGM: Orb - May 08 2015 at 10:03
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Kirillov
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Joined: September 03 2011
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 700
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Posted: May 08 2015 at 10:50 |
Dean wrote:
lazland wrote:
Dean wrote:
TGM: Orb wrote:
Well, the Conservatives actually increased their share of the vote *less* than Labour did. What a landslide... I look forwards to the Conservatives pretending they have a mandate to carry on the work they never got a mandate to do in the first place. I also look forwards to David Cameron working with a majority far weaker than Major's one from 92. I don't expect that Cameron has Major's gumption.
The only real success story is the only consistently progressive party on the bill, the SNP (yes, UKIP got a higher share of the vote, but not relative to the number of constituencies they stood in...). The Libdems got justly incinerated by their Faustian pact and will now no longer need to book if they want to hold their party conference in a restaurant. I look forwards to long-discredited New Labour figures claiming their only viable path is a centrist Blairite one in the days ahead.
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Spot on Rob. The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland. The Scots have a hollow victory here, they will now be governed by a party that none of them voted for regardless of what paltry powers they secured by losing the devolution vote. |
A rarity, I know, but I beg to differ, Dean.
The Tories most certainly did gain from Labour. Witness Balls losing his seat, a staggering achievement for a Shadow Chancellor up against a supposedly unpopular government. He was not the only one. I watched declaration after declaration, and, in seat after seat, even in safe Labour seats, there were swings to Tory candidates. Conservatives gained from both Labour, and the Lib Dem collapse. How much advantage did Labour take from the Lib Dem collapse? Sod all. Labour were truly stuffed, and there is no other place to look to for blame than themselves.
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Aside from Ed Balls what other seats did the Conservatives win from Labour? [Sorry, that's not a taunt, I honestly don't know - I have tried looking at the Tory gains one by one but my PC keeps crashing] All the Tory gains I have seen so far have been gained from the Lib Dems... having said that, Vince Cable, Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes all lost their seats to Labour.
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Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Telford, Plymouth Moor View, Derby North, Bolton West as well as Ed Balls' seat. (There may be more but I haven't been able to find them).
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout
Joined: May 13 2007
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Points: 37575
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Posted: May 08 2015 at 11:43 |
Kirillov wrote:
Dean wrote:
lazland wrote:
Dean wrote:
TGM: Orb wrote:
Well, the Conservatives actually increased their share of the vote *less* than Labour did. What a landslide... I look forwards to the Conservatives pretending they have a mandate to carry on the work they never got a mandate to do in the first place. I also look forwards to David Cameron working with a majority far weaker than Major's one from 92. I don't expect that Cameron has Major's gumption.
The only real success story is the only consistently progressive party on the bill, the SNP (yes, UKIP got a higher share of the vote, but not relative to the number of constituencies they stood in...). The Libdems got justly incinerated by their Faustian pact and will now no longer need to book if they want to hold their party conference in a restaurant. I look forwards to long-discredited New Labour figures claiming their only viable path is a centrist Blairite one in the days ahead.
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Spot on Rob. The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland. The Scots have a hollow victory here, they will now be governed by a party that none of them voted for regardless of what paltry powers they secured by losing the devolution vote. |
A rarity, I know, but I beg to differ, Dean.
The Tories most certainly did gain from Labour. Witness Balls losing his seat, a staggering achievement for a Shadow Chancellor up against a supposedly unpopular government. He was not the only one. I watched declaration after declaration, and, in seat after seat, even in safe Labour seats, there were swings to Tory candidates. Conservatives gained from both Labour, and the Lib Dem collapse. How much advantage did Labour take from the Lib Dem collapse? Sod all. Labour were truly stuffed, and there is no other place to look to for blame than themselves.
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Aside from Ed Balls what other seats did the Conservatives win from Labour? [Sorry, that's not a taunt, I honestly don't know - I have tried looking at the Tory gains one by one but my PC keeps crashing] All the Tory gains I have seen so far have been gained from the Lib Dems... having said that, Vince Cable, Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes all lost their seats to Labour.
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Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Telford, Plymouth Moor View, Derby North, Bolton West as well as Ed Balls' seat. (There may be more but I haven't been able to find them).
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 and Southampton Itchen. Looking at those they are not vote-swings away from Labour, they are the effect of the Lib Dem vote swinging to Conservative in marginal seats.
And frankly, those are less than the Labour wins from Conservatives: Chester, Dewsbury, Wolverhampton South West, Hove, Wirral West, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North, Ilford North, Ealing Central, and Lancaster and Fleetwood.
So I say again: The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13627
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Posted: May 08 2015 at 11:46 |
Kirillov wrote:
Dean wrote:
lazland wrote:
Dean wrote:
TGM: Orb wrote:
Well, the Conservatives actually increased their share of the vote *less* than Labour did. What a landslide... I look forwards to the Conservatives pretending they have a mandate to carry on the work they never got a mandate to do in the first place. I also look forwards to David Cameron working with a majority far weaker than Major's one from 92. I don't expect that Cameron has Major's gumption.
The only real success story is the only consistently progressive party on the bill, the SNP (yes, UKIP got a higher share of the vote, but not relative to the number of constituencies they stood in...). The Libdems got justly incinerated by their Faustian pact and will now no longer need to book if they want to hold their party conference in a restaurant. I look forwards to long-discredited New Labour figures claiming their only viable path is a centrist Blairite one in the days ahead.
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Spot on Rob. The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland. The Scots have a hollow victory here, they will now be governed by a party that none of them voted for regardless of what paltry powers they secured by losing the devolution vote. |
A rarity, I know, but I beg to differ, Dean.
The Tories most certainly did gain from Labour. Witness Balls losing his seat, a staggering achievement for a Shadow Chancellor up against a supposedly unpopular government. He was not the only one. I watched declaration after declaration, and, in seat after seat, even in safe Labour seats, there were swings to Tory candidates. Conservatives gained from both Labour, and the Lib Dem collapse. How much advantage did Labour take from the Lib Dem collapse? Sod all. Labour were truly stuffed, and there is no other place to look to for blame than themselves.
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Aside from Ed Balls what other seats did the Conservatives win from Labour? [Sorry, that's not a taunt, I honestly don't know - I have tried looking at the Tory gains one by one but my PC keeps crashing] All the Tory gains I have seen so far have been gained from the Lib Dems... having said that, Vince Cable, Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes all lost their seats to Labour.
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Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Telford, Plymouth Moor View, Derby North, Bolton West as well as Ed Balls' seat. (There may be more but I haven't been able to find them).
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thanks, it's saved me writing them down.
I might also add that, especially after five years of austere Tory government, for Labour to lose constituencies such as Vale of Clwyd, Gower, and Telford is pretty amazing.
Further, if i were a Labour wonk, I would look at losing the Balls constituency, and a couple in Northern England as representing a disaster.
Without over-egging the pudding (which is easy, I know, after a night like this), but, and I had years of political activism and interest, I truly believe that this generation is witnessing the end of the Labour Party as a party of government in the UK, and it serves them very much right. During my very last, before "stepping down", as it were, bout of activism, I helped out with the campaign to elect Nerys Evans for Plaid in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South.
The AM who was elected, the Tory Angela Burns, is charming and quite lovely, and not a bad Assembly Member. The Labour Party candidate, on the other hand, was nasty, vicious, and ridiculously tribal, as were her activists. That is the reality of Labour "on the ground", and they are beginning to pay a heavy price for arrogance and petty minded tribalism. Not to mention the fact that they seem utterly incapable of defining precisely what Socialism is in the 21st century, surely to God, a pre-requisite for any left wing movement and party attempting to persuade the electorate?
As I said earlier, it is time for a fundamental rethink of the left in the UK, and any such conversation must include Welsh, Scottish, and Irish nationalists, together with working class people lost over the past couple of decades. I won't hold my breath, though.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13627
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Posted: May 08 2015 at 11:50 |
Dean wrote:
Kirillov wrote:
Dean wrote:
lazland wrote:
Dean wrote:
TGM: Orb wrote:
Well, the Conservatives actually increased their share of the vote *less* than Labour did. What a landslide... I look forwards to the Conservatives pretending they have a mandate to carry on the work they never got a mandate to do in the first place. I also look forwards to David Cameron working with a majority far weaker than Major's one from 92. I don't expect that Cameron has Major's gumption.
The only real success story is the only consistently progressive party on the bill, the SNP (yes, UKIP got a higher share of the vote, but not relative to the number of constituencies they stood in...). The Libdems got justly incinerated by their Faustian pact and will now no longer need to book if they want to hold their party conference in a restaurant. I look forwards to long-discredited New Labour figures claiming their only viable path is a centrist Blairite one in the days ahead.
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Spot on Rob. The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland. The Scots have a hollow victory here, they will now be governed by a party that none of them voted for regardless of what paltry powers they secured by losing the devolution vote. |
A rarity, I know, but I beg to differ, Dean.
The Tories most certainly did gain from Labour. Witness Balls losing his seat, a staggering achievement for a Shadow Chancellor up against a supposedly unpopular government. He was not the only one. I watched declaration after declaration, and, in seat after seat, even in safe Labour seats, there were swings to Tory candidates. Conservatives gained from both Labour, and the Lib Dem collapse. How much advantage did Labour take from the Lib Dem collapse? Sod all. Labour were truly stuffed, and there is no other place to look to for blame than themselves.
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Aside from Ed Balls what other seats did the Conservatives win from Labour? [Sorry, that's not a taunt, I honestly don't know - I have tried looking at the Tory gains one by one but my PC keeps crashing] All the Tory gains I have seen so far have been gained from the Lib Dems... having said that, Vince Cable, Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes all lost their seats to Labour.
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Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Telford, Plymouth Moor View, Derby North, Bolton West as well as Ed Balls' seat. (There may be more but I haven't been able to find them).
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and Southampton Itchen. Looking at those they are not vote-swings away from Labour, they are the effect of the Lib Dem vote swinging to Conservative in marginal seats.
And frankly, those are less than the Labour wins from Conservatives: Chester, Dewsbury, Wolverhampton South West, Hove, Wirral West, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North, Ilford North, Ealing Central, and Lancaster and Fleetwood.
So I say again: The Conservatives did not gain from Labour, they reaped the reward of the Lib/Dem collapse and benefited from the success of the SNP in Scotland.
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Dean, I am off out in a minute, so will not pick up your reply until tomorrow, probably.
However, you are wrong. Even if Labour had won every single seat in Scotland, David Cameron would still be ensconced in Downing Street as PM with a majority. Look at the maths. Labour are 90 odd behind, and there are only 59 seats in Scotland.
Labour lost this election in England & Wales, simple as.
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout
Joined: May 13 2007
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Posted: May 08 2015 at 11:57 |
lazland wrote:
Dean, I am off out in a minute, so will not pick up your reply until tomorrow, probably.
However, you are wrong. Even if Labour had won every single seat in Scotland, David Cameron would still be ensconced in Downing Street as PM with a majority. Look at the maths. Labour are 90 odd behind, and there are only 59 seats in Scotland.
Labour lost this election in England & Wales, simple as. |
Alas, I am not wrong (and I'm not a Labour supporter btw - never was and never will be), what I am saying is they did not lose in so much as they failed to win. They lost in 2010 - that's where and when the deficit 30 seats went. All this election has shown is they have failed to recover - essentially they have had 5 years of ineffective opposition and made zero progress.
Edited by Dean - May 08 2015 at 11:59
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Dean
Special Collaborator
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Posted: May 11 2015 at 05:13 |
As a footnote to this:
Looking at the results for England alone, the Conservatives increased their vote share by 550,000 and gained an extra 21 English MPs as a result of that. By comparison Labour increased their vote share by 1,045,000 and gained an extra 15 English MPs. These two parties now account for 72.6% of the voters compared to 67.7% in 2010. No matter how you count it, or how you fudge the stats - Labour and Conservatives have 36 more English MPs than they had a month ago.
The only conclusion we can draw from this is England is still a two-party country and the winning team won more seats and more voters than anyone else.
So, the effect of UKIP and Green's has been overstated because when taking the Lib/Dems share into account they lost 400,000 voters between them compared to 2010.
In Wales the story is different, but only slightly. Both Labour and Conservatives increased their vote-share at the expense of the Lib/Dems but Labour's increase did nothing to counter the huge loss they suffered (to the Tories and Whigs) in 2010 but then Plaid also failed to recover the losses they experienced in 2010.
Of course this does not mean we can ignore the rise of UKIP in this election, but it means they can be ignored as much as the Lib/Dems have been since WWII.
There have been several post-election articles published on the effect of Proportional Representation would have made to the result ... all have which have been a little fanciful because no PR system returns the number of MPs based upon vote-share.
We do not have any data on "preferred vote" or "alternate vote" so such articles are pure speculation and all we can speculate is the net result would have been a majority for either Labour or Conservative because it is unlikely that the deferred votes of 4th, 5th, 6th, etc., placed candidates would have gone to the third-placed party.
It is quite likely that under AV or PR Ed Balls would have not lost his seat, but that depends on what the UKIP voter's second choice would have been (it is not clear-cut that they all would have voted Tory or all would have voted Labour ... I doubt very much that all those who voted UKIP are "right-wing" as such).
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ExittheLemming
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Posted: May 11 2015 at 05:31 |
Can someone explain to me why a demographic who voted against Independence have returned 56 out of 59 SNP MPs? Have the Scots knowingly acceded to creating a larger Tory majority in Westminster or are they naive enough to believe the Nationalists will stop at obtaining devolved decision making powers? or are they so disillusioned with the devil they know best (Labour?) Puzzled but relieved ex Pat, Brisbane Update - there are some press sources claiming that circa 75% of the SNP's rank and file members only joined the party after the successful 'No' vote campaign. The pressure that will be brought to bear on leader Sturgeon to push for another independence referendum will be so severe that it's unlikely to be appeased by Cameron's granting of tax raising powers and/or devolving welfare and transport laws etc All said and done, Scotland is still a one party state 
Edited by ExittheLemming - May 11 2015 at 05:43
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Dean
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Posted: May 11 2015 at 06:21 |
ExittheLemming wrote:
Can someone explain to me why a demographic who voted against Independence have returned 56 out of 59 SNP MPs? Have the Scots knowingly acceded to creating a larger Tory majority in Westminster or are they naive enough to believe the Nationalists will stop at obtaining devolved decision making powers? or are they so disillusioned with the devil they know best (Labour?)
Puzzled but relieved ex Pat, Brisbane
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I suspect that will be something that will be debated until forever and it really depends on whether the 50% of the voting population who voted SNP were voting on a single issue. Their percentage vote-share does tend to reflect the referendum result within a margin of error given that "devolution" was probably not the only issue people voted on. Personally I do not see this as a clear mandate to push for another referendum on devolution.
From the few seats I've looked at the winning SNP candidate pushed the incumbent loser (Lab and Lib/Dem) into second place [so] the Lib/Lab voters still account for 78% of the remaining 50% who did not vote SNP. The battering the Lib/Dems got for "siding with the enemy" in Scotland is nowhere near as bad (in percentage vote terms) as they got in England and Wales even though they lost all but one of their Scottish seats.
I actually feel a little sad for the Scots - they've now got a Tory government that less than 15% of them voted for and while their 50 extra seats seems like a lot, they are not the opposition party in the UK and they will be less effectual than having those 50 seats on the Labour benches. What happens in Scotland isn't quite as clear cut as Nicola Sturgeon perhaps wishes it could be because in real terms it hasn't actually changed the "two-party" system very much across the whole country, they are in a weaker position than the Lib/Dems were in the coalition (and look what good that did them).
Edited by Dean - May 11 2015 at 06:21
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NutterAlert
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Posted: May 11 2015 at 07:13 |
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Maybe an early Tory initiative to re-envigorate construction industry and reduce unemployment levels is a major edifice stretching between Solway Firth and River Tyne?
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lazland
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
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Points: 13627
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Posted: May 11 2015 at 10:47 |
ExittheLemming wrote:
Can someone explain to me why a demographic who voted against Independence have returned 56 out of 59 SNP MPs? Have the Scots knowingly acceded to creating a larger Tory majority in Westminster or are they naive enough to believe the Nationalists will stop at obtaining devolved decision making powers? or are they so disillusioned with the devil they know best (Labour?)
Puzzled but relieved ex Pat, Brisbane
Update - there are some press sources claiming that circa 75% of the SNP's rank and file members only joined the party after the successful 'No' vote campaign. The pressure that will be brought to bear on leader Sturgeon to push for another independence referendum will be so severe that it's unlikely to be appeased by Cameron's granting of tax raising powers and/or devolving welfare and transport laws etc All said and done, Scotland is still a one party state
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The Scots voted SNP two reasons. About 40% because they genuinely believe in independence, as per the referendum. The remainder? To punish Labour, a party seen as being in total cahoots with the Westminster establishment, the left cheek of the same arse, and a party which has taken its core working class vote in Scotland (and elsewhere) for granted for far too many years. This also explains the fall of three seats in Wales, but to a far lesser extent. They do need to be careful, though. UKIP are gaining in popularity in Wales, and the Assembly Government is, by and large, bloody hopeless and takes its core vote very much for granted. Do I dislike the Labour Party? Yep. Do I blame them for their current predicament? Most certainly I do, because there is no one else to blame but themselves. Any other analysis of this election falls well short. Labour as a major force in British politics is now in dire need of emergency resuscitation. And it well and truly serves them right.
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ExittheLemming
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Posted: May 12 2015 at 03:06 |
^ still not entirely convinced as to the underlying reasons for the SNP landslide but I think you're right in stating a contributing factor being there is no credible left of ( anything) party to vote for in 2015. The left wing in the UK has managed to plumb the sort of depths that made them unelectable circa 1979 when they were lampooned as the 'Looney Left' etc. Never thought they would sink that low in popular esteem again. All said and done, apart from the independance pledge, there is very little to choose between the Labour and SNP manifestos with regards to social and fiscal policy etc so there has not been a significant seismic shift in the political makeup north of the border as far as I can see (except that the Scots, despite more backsides on seats are actually even more of an isolated minority in Westminster  )
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Padraic
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Posted: May 12 2015 at 10:39 |
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At the very least they have a cadre in Westminster to hold Cameron's feet to the fire for devo max.
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rogerthat
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Posted: May 16 2015 at 04:38 |
Nogbad_The_Bad wrote:
Yup, 37% of the vote gets you a majority add Labour at 31% and you over 50% against proportional representation as Labour would lose even more seats in that system. Gotta love politics.
Personally I think a hung government would lead to more compromises and more deadlocks so you'd get some more balanced legislation but also a whole lot of nothing. |
We've had lots of hung govts and they usually end up being a pain as the smaller parties constantly wield the threat of withdrawing support, except for those coalition govts that were steered by statesmen who commanded the respect of fellow Parliamentarians and obtained bipartisan support for important legislation (a moribund breed in India and I don't think the situation is very different in the UK either). The euphoria last year at a party merely securing a majority of seats of its own was beyond any sense of proportion, simply because it has been so long. Guess the grass is always greener on the other side.
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Flight123
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Posted: June 08 2015 at 09:17 |
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I missed this poll on PA at the time, and now the UK are paying and will pay the consequences of the Tory 'majority'... Anyway, as this is PA, political adversity may spark musical creativity: prog's high water mark was under the Tory government 1970 - 1974 and the neo-prog revival of the early 80s came under the Thatcher regime. As austerity begins to bite (yes, even more) will we see more prog in opposition?
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2015 UK General Election