American Politics the 2016 edition

JJLehto wrote: The house was never realistically gunna happen

I don't think the Repubican party is in a panic and afraid of losing the house for no reason... it most certainly can happen... I think it hinges on GOP turnout. Remember my posts back several pages... the days of split tickets have been eroding.. straight ballot voting has been increasing.. as I also showed.. by almost a 2-1 margin that has been for Democrats voting for Republican house members...

2016? do you think those trends will reverse   I suspect strongly they will accelerate.... if so AND if there is any measurably drop off in Republican turnouit... ummm.. which we are seeing signs of with early voting... it is more than possible...

LearsFool wrote: ^ Just as I've been predicting. Also helps McMullin that Johnson is now tanking in the polls nationwide.

We (and by 'we' I mean civilization) haven't won yet. All people have to go out and vote. I know polls tell one story and analysts like Nate Silver at 538 give civilization an 85% chance of winning but please don't ever underestimate Deplorability. 

JJLehto wrote: micky wrote: don't give up on my babe Hillary in Utah!  30% just may be enough to win the state this year if the haters split their 70% 3 (2.5 haha)  ways. I'd say at this point... either of the 3 could win it. Nah, first Dems don't always even manage 30% there and second, with more than 2 options now people may feel less pressure to vote Clinton as the lesser of two evils. Looking at the polling, I see Trump, Johnson AND Clinton all took dives as McMullin started rising. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/  Seems some Hillary votes have been lost to him, which indicates to me some of her support has probably been "lesser of two evils" in UT. Why else would her numbers fall as well?  Also Gary is indeed tanking. Look at that drop, half his polling numbers wiped out in under a month. Again he may have been a less bad option for people, but his social liberalism, especially being pro choice, probably was uncomfortable. With McMullin, many anti Trumpers have a much more comfortable option. I dont forsee a 4 way race.  Clinton has a better chance of winning Texas than Utah

iof course she does have a better chance of wining Texas...  I give her a 40% chance.. note.. there are over 1 million latino voters registered in Texas in 2016.. that weren't in 2012.  And they are voting... and not for Trump.  The polling is within the margin of error.. and do agree with some..  I think Clinton may be under polling her actual support.  Not to mention undecided breaking her way as the safe.. known choice and the old lesser of two evils people love to talk about

that said.. duh...she has less a chance in Utah .. as I said.. 1 in 3..  if you'll note. .and 538 has noted it as well. American voters have a long affair of saying one thing with regards to 3rd party candidates and polling.. yet hating when they arrive at the box hating the notion of wasting their vote. Funny how all that support goes poof... 

though in all honesty... everyone and their dog knows this election is baked.. so yeah... McMullin could win it. Or Hillary could the state.. my prediction actually is Trump takes 3rd place there.. since the election isn't going to be close..  less likely that the anti-Clinton vote would feel they had to drink from the punchbowl full of piss that would be for a Morman.. voting for Trump.  Those people are hardcore man.. and Trump is pretty much against about everything that faith stands for.

I give my progressive friends from across the ocean a warm warm embrace full of HOPE  - may the force be with you next 11/8   (or:  may God have mercy of all of us)

micky wrote: really cool story today.... I have a customer of mine..  I've mentioned her a few times in the forum.. my #1 customer.  A wonderful sweet 89 yr. old widow that has been my customer for years now. She asked me to come by to take a look at something I installed for her a couple of years ago that wasn't working.  I had a feeling I knew what the problem was, but since I hadn't seen her since last year I jumped at the chance to see her again so I headed over there this morning.  Sure enough it was simple to fix... the kid she hires to do her yard work did something to it.. so we sad down and had some coffee and chatted for an hour or so (no way I was charging her for the visit so I was on my time.. ie.. company time and put my time on another job  haha).  Bless that woman.. she was so excited to show me her 'I voted' sticker and we talked long about how she never ever thought she'd ever see a woman as President of the United States and hoped she had another 12 days left in her.. or a couple of months to see Hillary formally become President.  As if I didn't love her enough already...  I might have to ask Raff to whip up a special Cheesecake again for her and take it to her on the day after the election hahaha.

Lovely story.  Just make sure you do give her the cheesecake after the election, that stuff'll kill her.

I just saw that in breaking news: New Emails in Clinton Case Came from Weiner that was Lewdly Exposed in Former Sexting Scandal.

indeed David...  so what do they think they'll find on Weiner's cellphone...  classified emails

Likely it was emails from her telling that pond scum to die and leave his wife alone...  in fact he should be lucky Killary didn't make him disappear out of Huma's life....

it makes for a great headline though..but lots of smoke (fanned by Republicans of course) but likely no fire.

'NBC News' Justice Department correspondent Pete Williams, citing senior officials familiar with the thinking behind Comey’s letter, reported that the new emails are not messages from Clinton herself and that investigators do not believe Clinton or her aides withheld evidence.

Logan wrote: I just saw that in breaking news: New Emails in Clinton Case Came from Weiner that was Lewdly Exposed in Former Sexting Scandal.

In case any forget, I'm a Democrat. But this announced just 11 days before the election, along with the focus on how Obamacare isn't working out, could kill Hilary's chances with independents and those on the fence. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Seriously.

Edited by SteveG - October 29 2016 at 10:35

I get the feeling that this whole nothingburger will help ensure that Hillary will be unable to break through in Georgia and Texas, but that'll be it. It's too small and too late to do much else, since the vast majority of minds have been made up. Arizona should still be wide open.