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Atavachron View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2016 at 19:11
Corruption has been a comfortable, even integral part, of U.S. deep politics for many decades.   If Hillary has mastered it, then I don't see a problem.   Emails ?   Tip of the iceberg. 


"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2016 at 01:00
An interesting article. As Clinton has surged in polls, Democrats chances to win the senate have actually fallen a tad

This could simply be lag, as 538 points out, or it could be now that Trump is basically done, people are realizing: "Oh right, that means Clinton"
Quite a few senate races have tightened up, Russ Feingold in particular, I hope to god he holds on...that was not only a safe pick up for the Dems, but he's a personal hero of mine and dedicated progressive. We shall wait and see, but this is the first divergence of the two stats. 

I just see so much excitement, and often arrogance, oozing from many Democrats, all this death of the GOP (even some Republican friends believe it's happening!) talk... I think we have forgotten that Clinton is still quite unpopular nationally, and we are still in the minority...in Congress, Governorships, State Legislatures. 2017-2019 was supposed to be a brief interlude until 2018 when the map favors the GOP (and it's a midterm) but now...god damn it, I fear we won't even have that. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2016 at 04:06
Originally posted by dr wu23 dr wu23 wrote:

^ I agree with T above.......the idea that she is anymore corrupt than all the politicians in Washington or Trump for that matter is ridiculous. Does anyone in their right mind actually think he manged to get where he's at with out making some questionable  deals and possibly some illegal ones?
And the idea that he's not a politician so he'll be 'for the people' is simply ludicrous.He's admitted in the past to paying off both Republicans and Dems to get his way. This guy is deep in the middle of all the sh*te going on around us.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2016 at 07:30
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

It looks as if it's fairly safe to assume that Donald Trump is safely out of the way, which, of course, leaves an almost equaly-sized problem: Hillary Clinton as president.
From her past track record, one of her first actions in office will probably be to legalize corrruption before moving on to less important things such as stability in the Middle East etc. How on earth is the world going to deal with that?
Sorry but this sounds like a Fox News comment. Not one accusation of corruption has been proven. The email thing is stupid and a horrible mistake. Hillary (which has million flaws especially as it has been said here in her hawkishness) is painted as ultra-corrupt just because people have repeated it endlessly. 


I don't think the email thing is stupid. It's not what Trump makes it out to be though certainly.
I'm not saying being concerned about the email thing is stupid, I'm saying her error and handling of it was stupid. But not criminal. That's what I'm saying. 

And yes, of course it has been blown out of proportion. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2016 at 08:50
Gotcha. My bad.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2016 at 12:28
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 07:29
3 weeks and a couple of days to go!!! Hold on to your seats...

while Trump's problem with women has drowned out Wikileaks to this point...  be prepared...  this amazing circus of an election isn't quite finished yet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_propaganda

agree with some in the political world...  what we are seeing now is legit... but hardly earth shaking. Establish credibility.. then.... but what will come will be earth shaking.. but not legit and dropped so close to election day it can't be disproved prior to election day.  The problem is of course...  early voting has already started and a last ditch attempt by... outside interests... to swing the election won't matter.. even when the email to Russians concoct  in which Hillary cheers on Isis while drowning small puppies emerges....LOL

number of the day... 232... the expected Democratic House majority...  calculated by Republican strategists btw.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 07:45
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

Corruption has been a comfortable, even integral part, of U.S. deep politics for many decades.   If Hillary has mastered it, then I don't see a problem.   Emails ?   Tip of the iceberg. 




I have this discussion with my younger coworkers all the time David...  it isn't that Hillary is more corrupt.. she is seen as the face OF it and they are sick and tired of it.  If not for Trump..... take my best friend at work.. He LOATHES Hillary... part of it is he more pro-gun rights than I am. Militant he is...whereas I believe regulation and restrictions are not an infrigement on gun owner rights. .

 but even he sees that a Trump presidency could be, likely would be, devastating to this country.. and world.  He'll vote Hillary..  but take his sentiment as a voice of the youth David. They are fed up with politics as usual and want change.  Old farts like us are sort of blasse about it. What politican is not corrupt or beholden to money.. but the youth (god bless them) want a change.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 07:55
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Maybe I'm way off, I don't see the death of the GOP or anything like that, at least not in the near future and not from Trump really. Like I've said, a big loss this November may be what they need to wash their hands of Trump, they can then keep obstructing Congress as they've done. 

I really do expect a rebound by 2018. Not only do the GOP have a very favorable environment then...Clinton, Dems seem to forget, is very unpopular. She will be starting in a deficit. They will obstruct and make her life hell, add her already unpopular numbers and that midterms have been going for the Reps, yeah I don't know. Seems by 2018 they can rebound, like I said before self serving and pitiful as it is, they are correct to dump Trump and focus on Congress. Hell, 3 consecutive Democratic terms? A recession is guaranteed to happen within a year or 2. By 2020 I see the GOP as being back and possibly in a very good position. 

Long term, they may have issues but nothing different from what we've discussed: The Tea Party, unfavorable demographics (though again they can always rebrand themselves over time) and maybe Trump like politicians will run for Congress but he...I kinda see his movement dying with him. 


Brian.. i think you severely underestimate the civil war within the Republican Party.  There is a disconnect... and a strong anger at the party... by its own voters.  It is that divide which will in the end kill it.  Do you really think it was Trump that was the problem.. he was just the mouthpiece OF the voters that put him there.. he will exit stage left..  the angry white male will still be around.. in in sufficient numbers to make a pivot away from them... to the emerging social majorty.. fatal for Republican office holders. Thus there will be no moderation for that party.. until it is far too late.

I saw a great quote this week...

I paraphrase since I didn't bookmark it...

no matter how much I belive in small less intrusive governement....  I can not vote for bigots and racists....

that is the divide that will kill the party....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 08:23
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

I have to say my concerns for foreign policy are never in the same level as my concerns for public policy inside the US (which I know are affected by the former). That's one reason why I probably am and have been much more in HRC's camp than other more reluctant voters in this side of things... 


that is where Teo I deviate from many of my fellow Democrats and leftists.. and have for generations worth.

the more so today...  they (domestic and foreign) are of the same level of importance.  Isolationism is foolish...  non-interventionist policies are foolish. The question is not whether to exert our power.. but to decide when and where are most appropriate and best. Who is going to take care of threats outside our borders? It is a dangerous world out there.  f**king Europe? That is why I am firmly in HRC's camp... as much for her hawkish foreign policy and using our strength (economic, military, diplomatic) as much as her public policy.  These are not the days to retreat into our shells nor to put people who have zero experience in world relations into the White House.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 08:34
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Thanks for your thoughts Micky. We disagree so much especially on post 3 it's not even worth saying more than I appreciate knowing where you stand.


Beer 

so where are you with your politics Pat these days.  It has been a few years since Bad Micky was last seen around here. LOL What are your thoughts on the two candidates...and their parties?


I guess I'm a libertarian, but libertarians like to keep telling me that I'm not so who knows maybe I'm not. Both parties are trash like political parties tend to be. Trump is abhorrent and I don't really think my opinion of him needs to be elaborated on.

I don't like HRC. If I'm not trying to be civil then I also find her abhorrent. She's a liberal right so we clash with economic policy, but that's not even what I really care about with her. She's a mess in her foreign policy. Frankly, she essentially has none. She's a war candidate, as hawkish as they come, more so even than all but two of the republican candidates that took the field in the primaries. Going back to her time as a first lady, she's been a consistent supporter of USA enforced regime changed across the globe aggressively pursuing the most hapless aspects of our FP which has led to massive political destabilization and the inception of fringe paragovernmental extremists abroad. She's a humanitarian crisis on two legs. Her work in Syria and Libya is pure disgrace. She shares blame in our baffling hostile relations with the two other largest world powers.  She's a huge proponent of the drone program which is something I just can't stand and people who know me around here are probably tired of hearing me talk about. So in short that's why I dislike her so much.


thanks Pat Beer

I have heard many of your thoughts expressed by friends of mine so that is no surprise to hear Pat.

I had wondered if you still identified as a Libertarian.  What are your thoughts.. on my thoughts.. that the Libertarian Party some day may (and I think it will) replace the Republican Party as our 2nd major party.  I don't agree.. .at all.. with the economic side... but do agree on the social side. Thus since social issues and the 'culture war' drives my vote more than anything.. I see the Libertarian Party having more of future in this country than the Republican Party. The country is moving to the left socially... I think we all agree of that.

“I can tell you where to find Reagan Republicans: Go to a cemetery in Oakland County, Michigan"

economically?  Perhaps I'm simplifing things. But how is Libertarian Policy any different than than the failed and disproven Repubican economic models.  Less taxation doesn't work.. big businesses don't trickle it down.. just buy bigger homes and more yachts and the social safety net.. needs resources to function. Thus the social contract we must honor with taxation.

so I guess my question is ... something I care less about than social issues.. but still am interesting in.

Where do Libertarian and Republican economics policies diverge or differ.. or am I right to tar and feather both as already tested.. and proven to be failures.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 08:40
My grandparents might be buried in that cemetery, if it is the one that your quote is referring to. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 08:58
Originally posted by rushfan4 rushfan4 wrote:

My grandparents might be buried in that cemetery, if it is the one that your quote is referring to. 


probably is LOL. The quote is a .....oft-quoted in political columns.. remark from a clearly thinking  GOP strategist in relation to the El Dorado of American Politics.. the missing white vote... it is isn't there. Wasn't there in 2008.. 2012.. won't be in 2016 and sure as hell won't be in 2020...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 09:59
Oakland County has a large and strong Republican base.  I live next door in Macomb County which historically has a strong Democrat base with many automotive union workers...although I think that in recent years the Republicans have carved a big chunk out of Northern Macomb county which has a wealthier base of taxpayers.  To the south of us is Wayne County, home of the city of Detroit and a nearly 100% Democrat base.  The many, many years of corruption in the city of Detroit from the days of Coleman Young through Kwame Kilpatrick have brought a very bad reputation to Democrats in this part of the country.  The whites left or were "chased out" of the city and the blacks took over and unfortunately the city turned into the cesspool that it is.  Thus it is all the Democrats fault.  On the other hand, the governor is a Republican, and needless to say, everybody in the country knows what happened in Flint, MI under his watch.  There is a lot of hatred between the members of the two parties here in the state, which I think reflects what is going on a countrywide basis.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2016 at 16:07
perhaps it was.... but it is anymore? thus the point of the quote... the turn of the suburbs from red to blue is a large part of why the Democrats have in effect pretty much put a stranglehold on national electons. It is what turned Virginia from red to blue.. and keeps PA blue even if the rest of the state trends red. Suburbia is where the Democratic party has made its greatest gains.. white collar educated whites.. plus huge minority advantages equals... the Presidency. 

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/MI/Oakland/43747/114561/en/summary.html

note.. the Republicans have NOT won a Presidential election since 1988 that wasn't so razor thin that the winner could be declared the night OF the election.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2016 at 07:38
I thought my American friends might enjoy the following quote by Niall Ferguson in an excellent article in today's Sunday Times. It goes like this (slightly paraphrased):

"Donald Trump is the Samsung Galaxy 7 of US politics - a phone so hurriedly assembled, it spontaneously combusts. That would make Hillary Clinton the iPhone 7, essentially the same as your current president, but harder to connect to and with inferior mail security.

This joke has already been made on Saturday Night Live.

This came as no surprise. SNL and the election have been essentially fused ever since Alex Baldwin was brought in to parody Trump. Most people now prefer the spoof to the original. Indeed, this may be one of the many reasons why Trump is sliding in the polls. Once you've seen the comic version, the original is disappointingly unfunny.

The American public is fascinated by Trump, but in the way people are fascinated by a really gruesome car crash".

There is, of course, quite a bit more in that vein, but it seems to me to sum up pretty well the Trump side of, what is, to this observer's mind, the most deeply depressing election in living memory.

I think in a few week's time, my mate Micky, and others, will be having more than a few beers to celebrate Ms Clinton's success. I wish her well of it, and, as my mate Dave said on Friday night at the pub, she will be doing extremely well to live through a full term if rumours of her health are even half way on the button.

A thought from me to close. I hope, when making occasional comments, that I have made clear that I regard the thought of a Trumpalot presidency to be akin to a natural disaster. However, equally, I do not think that the other one, that ghastly woman, will do anything whatsoever to pull together what is a deeply divided nation. I see nothing but a lot of trouble ahead, and, if the conservative factions in America can put out an even halfway credible candidate in the future, then all bets are off.

The same applies, by the way, to politics in Great Britain at the moment. Without wishing to reopen the Brexit debate, I strongly suspect that Dean, and other remain supporters, are, rightly as it happens, now foaming at the mouth at the obvious calamity which hapless ministers and advisers are heading towards in the Brexit negotiations. They do not appear to have the slightest idea, and much is driven by party and ideological politics, rather than the common good.

That is, I feel, the pertinent lesson here. The Brexit vote was a backlash against a very complacent elite by a lot of people for whom the economic "miracle" was nothing of the sort. Those left behind sought not only to blame, but to register a protest when they had the opportunity, regardless of the consequences (I include myself amongst such people, by the way, even though I do live what is a rather pleasant and comfortable life. With me, it was the politics, not economic self interest, as such).

The same is exactly true of America. It can be the only credible explanation for a nut job such as Trump. If I were a member of the American political and economic establishment, I would celebrate victory in November extremely soberly, and reflect accordingly.

Edited by lazland - October 16 2016 at 07:40
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2016 at 09:15
well.... it will be party central here. I have the blow, booze and broads lined up to knock them back.

As much as for him losing as Hillary winning. 

We are a deeply divided nation and her election won't change it. Nothing will Steve. One of Raff's favorite sayings is never the twain shall meet. Both parties are moving away from the center. Less commonground. The right has waged war on the left for decades.. finally the left is returning that hate ... hopefully with interest.



 It is war man.. this is just a battle.. Hillary will not find being President much fun for reasons we touched on well back of these 90+ pages. The angry and bitter stonewalling Republican minority will be the least of her problems... it will be the rapidly expanding left wing of her party she will have to work with.  She is the last gasp of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party... from here out.. and the youth and a much more liberal minded Democratic party take over. especially the economic firebrands.... as Warren's wing will be doing in the Senate.. it will be full blown war between progressive and regressive elements in this country. Clinton's strength as was her husbands was reaching out and working with Republicans...  those days are soon to end.. as much as they long have for the other side.. who took their mandate from their voters as one to impose.. to rule.. not govern... where compromise with Democrats was a sign of weakness or ideological impurity... those days could soon be coming for the Democratic Party after Clinton moves on.


Edited by micky - October 16 2016 at 09:28
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2016 at 10:04
Yep, not much there to disagree with, Micky. As I said on another thread a while back, politics is certainly becoming interesting again, albeit for not exactly very cheerful or uplifting reasons.

I think in decades to come, in my son's time, not mine, this period will be seen as epoch making in the sense that the system itself is grinding to a halt, and, as ever, will be replaced by something new. The trick for our generation is to ensure that the foundations for that new system are as peaceful as they can be, and for the common good.

Easier said than done, though.................
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2016 at 10:18
exactly.. we've seen firsthand here what happens when one party refuses to compromise with the other and takes the hard line.. the government grounds to a halt.  However much as we saw with Trump... these leaders are mere reflections of the electorate.  For years Liberals were seen as the popular narrative being why this country was going to hell... well.. that shoe has flipped... staring blatant racism, bigotry sexism... and god know many other -ism's I could think of right in the face. the right is not seen by many on the left as being the cause of what is wrong with this country... not to mention completely being against the spirit of the founding principals OF this country.  Will Democrats step up to the same level as Republicans have in irresponsible governing...  perhaps.. perhaps not.. we shall see.  It is hard be responsible when whipped into a frenzy of not merely seeing the other side as wrong or misguided.. but stone cold evil man haha
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 16 2016 at 12:28
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:







If you update this chart to 2016 the gap would be much wider.
The current election cycle alone has widened the gap and the results of the election will further the divide regardless of who wins.
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