American Politics the 2016 edition

rogerthat wrote: ^^^  Dean, I had made a reference to the circumstances that led to the rise of the cultural right wing in India earlier in the thread and I think there are answers there as to the rise of the far-right in Europe as well as the Trump phenomenon in USA.  When life falls well short of basic aspirations for a large number of people and they have nothing to look forward to, they start attacking 'the other'.  That is why I believe the liberal elite cannot be exempt from blame in creating this monster that we now have to contend with.  They have been very slow and reluctant to concede the problems in the world order they have played a major part in creating and maintaining over the last several years.  Inequality by itself may not always be a problem but poverty is.   Of course, it is not remotely rational to blame the other and I am not equipped to answer why they do so but it does seem that that is what they do when they feel hard done.  Supporters of the Democratic Party will doubtless argue that it was the GOP that filibustered welfare programs out of existence but there can be no defence for wanting to ratify the TPP as if other free trade pacts haven't created enough problems.  If the corporations benefit from such pacts, then govts have to find a way to get a fair share of tax from them so that the same may be used to better fund public facilities.  Politicians who avoid this discussion because a major chunk of their election funding comes from said corporations are very much a part of the problem irrespective of their stated political affiliation. In summary, I would argue that the rise of the far right grants an alibi to the center-left mainstream to duck blame for the problems in the economic arrangement of the day.  Because it's not like the underlying problems will go away if somehow the far right and/or demagogues like Trump are defeated.  There has to be a recognition that a new economic order must take the place of the extant one which has now failed to serve our needs.  There briefly appeared to be such recognition post Brexit but it's elusive again in all the euphoria over USA's potential first female president and all that.

worried about my 18% prediction of Johnson underselling him..  I don't think anyone.. not even myself who saw the possibility... thought Trump capable of what he is doing.  3rd parties have done fairly well in mid to late summer polling in the past.. then when voters actually enter the booth... they realize they are wasting their votes and vote for a major party candidate.

I don't think that will happen this year, the year when a vote for a major party candidate could very well be considered a wasted vote.

quote of the week... from a off the record anonymous Republican from Iowa

'Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America, to come back’' thus the narrative has already started.. it is election over before it has really started. Stranger things have happened, the strange things that even Republicans privately acknowledge would be needed to have a chance in November. However no one really sees Hillary making stupid mistakes needed to do that.. in fact she is doing the exact opposite and the smart thing. 

Staying quiet and low key and letting Trump dominate new coverage.

The real question left at this point, other than congressional balance, is whether Johnson reaches the 15% threshold he needs to get into the debates. If he does that... and perhaps well.. not like the debacle of a CNN town forum he had... perhaps he can approach 20-25%. He's getting closer to that 15%.. but still after all that Trump is doing, the fact he is only polling around 10% is not encouraging. I would be curious to see if he gets close to 12-13% how each party responds to calls for him to be included. As far as the Democrats.. they know the score..they have the Presidency in the bag for years facing the disfunction of the Republican Party. The Libertarian Party would be a much more dangerous foe. I wonder if they would be against Johnson getting into the debates if he doesn't reach.. but is fairly close to that 15% threshold.

On the opposite side I do wonder if some Republicans do realize the very real long term implications (like death to their party) of a protest vote that enables the Liberatarian Party and possible major Party status which splits the GOP IMO. A Party already in the midst of it's own 'civil war' within the party itself. Given a 3rd viable option however? The GOP would likely split Leaves the religious 'social' loonies to the GOP and takes most sensible (policy driven 'fiscal' conservative Republicans) to the Libertarians. 

thus considering the inherent 2 party nature of our political system.. a death match between the two parties for survival ...and all the while... we have the Democrats waiting and winning national elections. 40-20-20

IMO Johnson and the Libertarians are what is most interesting, and perhaps even most important to watch. VERY interesting times to come in American politics. Trump was just a sideshow.. a symptom.. not the cause of the cancer within the GOP.. which will eventually kill it.  How quickly though.. that is the interesting party. Trump does seem to be trying (intentionally or not depending on ones level of conspiracy theory beliefs ) to be killing the Republican Party.


Edited by micky - August 13 2016 at 07:38

I don't think the Democrats will split.. no reason to...

the party itself is moving left... they don't have the same problem the Republicans have. boxed in on the right and can't move back to center (in their political view that is moving LEFT) without alienating the base as it were. The evangelicals racists bigots and nativists.

the new Republicans as you call them... stay Democrat but be a minority in the party or try to join the Libertarians. They'll have an interesting choice.. but the point is ..we are talking politicans.. not voting blocks. There is no real segment of the US population that is pro corporation and big money.  Perhaps some 1%
rs that call themselves Democrats.  As far as what they do.. f**k them.. who cares.

The electorate is moving left... and the Democratic Party is moving left with them. They have a lot of room to move as opposed to the GOP which is what is going to kill that party. Trapped they are which demographics and time counting down their existance in the American Political system.

unless of course some martyr stands up and sacrifices his career to finally get Republicans to realize what they all know, but are afraid to deal with, they are likely within a election cycle or two of being irrevelant nationally. ie.. they have lost before the first vote is counted. 

remember... 242 to start...states that have become solid blue and have no chance of changing in the current climate.... if Colorado and Virginia have indeed gone blue as it appears they have.. that makes 264...add New Mexico which has also apparantly gone solid blue...269

yep.. that is a electoral college tie .. the best the Republicans can do is a tie.. they have to win every other single state and that doesn't count the red states going to turn blue .. if they can not appeal to the Democratic Party votes. Not working class voters rust belt Democrats that have been voting Republican anyway.. but the Obama coalition of educated white, and minorities... they are history. Unless they move left and repudiate their base... they will be replaced with a less dogmatic and vibrant party. The Libertarians.

The Democratic Party passed its danger point, Bernie burning the party down at the Convention. Hillary will have her 8 years.. and in 2024.. this nation and more imporantly the fractured opposition will likely allow a leftest progressive, like Warren to become President. I think the Democratic Party is in damn good shape right now.

no... perhaps not.... their problem is their liberal social ideals will turn away many Republicans...

and their already tried and failed Repubican economic notions are ...well.... f**ked.

So what do we have... a sustained period of Democratic dominance at the national level while first the GOP splits... the GOP and Libratarians fight it out for 2nd best in our two party political system.. then finally when the winner ends up a zero against the Democratic Party.. we finally see a new Party arise from the ashes... by then reflecting the Sanders/Warren Revolution. The movement of the nation its electorate and its policies leftward... socially it has been happening.. what we are soon to see is the other shoe drop.. the ecomonic side.

just my thoughts... but honestly... there isn't much that can change that exact scenario play out. The Republicans can... but only if they act VERY quickly and not try to write off 2016 as Trump's fault.. the GOP electorate made him.. they aren't going anywhere.  Who knows who'll they'll pick in 2020.. no matter who the establishment wants.

IF the GOP loses the Hispanic vote as they have the black vote.. they are finished as a party.. and I don't think many non political junkies realize how close that is to happening. Both the Democratic and Republican parties do though.. the Republicans have commissioned study after study about what they need to do... but the problem is.. they can't.. not without burning the party down and disowning their base. The very base that put their leaders in office.  Thus the dillema they have and politicians being what they are.. leaches and spineless.. they'll ride this till the party goes off the cliff.  Who is giving up their cushy job in Washington to say the Party has no clothes.. no future...that it has lost the culture/demographic war.  Ask yourselves that. Who has that kind of guts and foresight in Washington? Paul Ryan?   Ahhh..  no....just another hack who is lost once off of his 'talking points' ala Rubio.  He knows the problem..they all do... they can do the math and read the trends as well as any of us....but there is nothing they can really do. No easy way out thus the obvious pussyfooting with Trump's endorsement or lack of how to deal with him. It isn't Trump that is the problem...it is the voters that put him there... it is the monster of fear and hate they created to mobilize their base. The monster they finally after all these years lost control of to the point they can't backtrack now can they. It would be political (career politician) suicide for those that tried to save the Party from the very voters they cultivated with their Right Wing Talk Radio preaching that minorities are bad... Democrats worse.. and America was great when whites were running things and America was white.

Good riddance GOP... Make America Great again.. die a quick death Republican Party and let America remember why it was always great.  Personal freedoms.. not semi-theocratic moral laws....Diversity and welcoming those that want to come here and make them into productive Americans not hate, fear and division stoked  for pure political gain.

and perhaps finally deal with the cancer of institutionalized  racism and bigotry in this country... perhaps only then can socialtal racism die a generational death...

editted rant over...  ime for another beer me thinks


Edited by micky - August 13 2016 at 18:51

  I'll take that as a compliment David

I'll never forget my first stump speech.. campus quad 1989.  Railing against the frat boys tossing around footballs while our brothers were dying at Tiananmen Square for the basic liberties and freedoms rich f**ks like them take for granted ..

well it didn't go well... I got pelted with said footballs...


Edited by micky - August 13 2016 at 19:32

Dean wrote: Four successive recessions in the past 35 years (and ten in the past 70) shows how poorly that works and, as Josh Biven's report shows, why each recovery takes progressively longer.

From 1847 :P

I was asked me to do up a synopsis of the campaign at this moment... might as well share it here.

the current state of states...  right in line with what Nate Silver is saying.. nearly 90% of Hillary winning.. and more interestingly.  As much of a chance of Hillary uncorking a high 400 to sub 100 beatdown on Trump as Trump has to win or tie (get close).

Pink and light blue are battleground states at this point in the campaign. That could swing either way unless Trump implodes further.. or if he finally realizes he is running for President..and needs to appeal to Democrats and Moderates... not simply courting (shoring up?) the Republican voters he already won.

Med colored states are safe but quite to the point of being automatic. Could shift to light color again depending on what Trump does.  ie at this point Hillary has much of a chance of winning Texas as Trump does PA.




Edited by micky - August 14 2016 at 17:29

Atavachron wrote: What's purple?  Too mixed to tell?

Edited by The Dark Elf - August 14 2016 at 18:54

As I've previously mentioned, Trump/Pence campaign manager Paul Manafort is a man who made his living helping lobby for and prop up despots worldwide. Yesterday NYT came out with evidence of the most damning part of his career: his work for now exiled Ukrainian Mobutu-wannabe Viktor Yanukovych led to illegal, off the books rewards skimmed from the national budget, the same corruption that fed Yanukovych and his other pro-Putin buddies.