American Politics the 2016 edition

Hillary will get many black votes but nothing on the scale of what Obama got. Hating Trump and actually voting against him are two different things this time around. There was just something more colorful the last time around.


Edited by SteveG - August 06 2016 at 14:44

micky wrote: Atavachron wrote: Dean wrote: What about Texas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississsippi? I mean, why are they Republican exactly? Oh she'll win the Black South, too. of course she will.. not that it will make a difference... @Dean remember your history... the great northern migration of blacks... generally a 3rd of the deep south today is black... Georgia is a special case. It isn't just increased black participation in elections. Now around 60%... same as whites.. that has Georgia in play. It is the hispanics and more educated, and generally northern carpetbaggers.  Georgia's map may soon look like Va's.. a hell of a lot of red... but blue where it counts.. the urban higher income and better educated diverse areas of much higher population density around Atlanta. those single areas can swing entire states.. the Democrats have a 500,000 vote advantage built in around the Philladelphia.. by my last calculation.. nearly a 400,000 vote advantage in the D.C suburbs of Virginia makes up for a lot of rural red areas with the barest  fractions of those populations involved

My assumption is that they don't trust those northern yankees.

micky wrote: ... and the not so small matter of a f**king war in the streets in which cops are killing blacks...

LearsFool wrote: The Dark Elf wrote: micky wrote: ... and the not so small matter of a f**king war in the streets in which cops are killing blacks... Woah, slow that horsey down, Mick. I often agree with you, politically-speaking, but this kind of rhetoric smacks of BLM bullsh*t. The fact is, only 24% of fatal cop shootings are black persons. While that might seem inordinate, given that blacks only make up 13% of the population, but according to the Department of Justice, between 1980 and 2008 they committed 52% of all homicides. Think about that staggering number, and then consider that the numbers are actually worse than they look. Let me put this in even clearer focus: in 2012, white males made up 38% of the U.S. population (119.3 million fairly laid-back white guys) and committed 4582 murders. In the same year, black males made up only 6.6% of the population (that's 20.7 million angry black men), but accounted for 5531 murders. Oh, and in a much longer period, from 1-1-2009 and 12-31-2012, only 112 black men were killed, justifiably or not, in police shootings. Think again about that paltry that 6.6% of the population, and then consider that 40% of all police deaths are at the hands of black men per the FBI. Yes, it's a war zone, but not one perpetrated by the police. The f**k?! I can see where issue can be brought against how Mick sums up the situation - really the issues with American policing come down to policy and accountability, leading to a reality that can make my blood boil without needing hyperbole - but what the f**k kind of response is this, where you trot out this "angry black men" war story!? This is race-baiting, rug sweeping garbage.

Edited by The Dark Elf - August 06 2016 at 22:18

The Dark Elf wrote: So spare me the inanely misplaced indignation. Certainly, the police must rethink their policies, but nothing is going to change if black males continue to commit an obscenely inordinate amount of felonies, then resist arrest or try to flee, or worse try to kill cops.

That is reductionist to the point of almost being outright racist.

Atavachron wrote: ^ I'm not sure about those numbers relative to distribution of registered black voters, but I would also say the political map may be changing without us knowing it just yet, so conversely you may be on to something undetected.

Dean wrote: micky wrote: Atavachron wrote: Dean wrote: What about Texas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississsippi? I mean, why are they Republican exactly? Oh she'll win the Black South, too. of course she will.. not that it will make a difference... @Dean remember your history... the great northern migration of blacks... generally a 3rd of the deep south today is black... Georgia is a special case. It isn't just increased black participation in elections. Now around 60%... same as whites.. that has Georgia in play. It is the hispanics and more educated, and generally northern carpetbaggers.  Georgia's map may soon look like Va's.. a hell of a lot of red... but blue where it counts.. the urban higher income and better educated diverse areas of much higher population density around Atlanta. those single areas can swing entire states.. the Democrats have a 500,000 vote advantage built in around the Philladelphia.. by my last calculation.. nearly a 400,000 vote advantage in the D.C suburbs of Virginia makes up for a lot of rural red areas with the barest  fractions of those populations involved That hasn't answered my question: Why are Texas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississsippi Republican exactly? Apparently the great migration is reversing as more African Americans move back into the region - as you say 1/3rd of the deep south is black and that represents 35% of all African Americans - over a third of all African Americans living in the USA reside in just 6 states, and when you count the remainder of the Southern states that total rises to 60%. So I'll repeat my question: Why are those states Republican? If every single African American (and Hispanic and Asian) voted Democrat in those states would they then turn blue? I suspect the simple answer to that is no. If that is the case then why?

why are they Republican.... there is a short answer and a long one...

the short answer is Guns, God, and a culture of racism... 6 million blacks didn't pick up and migrate north because the weather was better in Chicago or Detroit   In short social conservatism which is what the Republican Party is all about today...and why the South is its power block and why the GOP is heading down the road to becoming a regional party instead of national one.  One that naturally plays into white fears that their country is changing and is no longer a white protestant nation with the rules made by whites for a white population and screw the darkies... they are f**king animals...

thus that is why you have seen the Republicans evolve from party that once reach in the northeast and west lose those to the Democrats. It evolved from the party of Lincoln to the party of Jeff Davis... states rights, white power and a profound distrust of the national government for imposing upon their insular culture what was anathema to them. Thus today's Republicans are much more ideologically like the southern democrats of the mid 19th century.

that is the short answer and probably best if I don't get into the longer one.

if Arizona is in play... more than that.. Clinton may well be ahead at the moment and can win it.. I wouldn't be surprised to see when Texas finally does a state-wide poll to catch where this election.. and national politics are playing out... that Clinton is winning Texas. It will be a bombshell nationally.. but in reality.. should anyone be surprised. Even the Republicans know it is coming.. there simply isn't anything they can do about it that doesn't involve a complete ideological 180.

So... it has been an eventful last month.. so with the Olympics taking over the national attention (unless Trump decides to do something to take back news attention like... umm..  argue that old people should be liquidated to facilitate the downsizing of government ) things are pretty well said until the Debates.. the last chances either will have to really move the narrative that is being entrenched will be the debates... Trump is a unfit lunatic and Hillary personally flawed but more than capable of being President for ALL americans. And who really expects Trump to move the meter in the debates.. the best he can hope for is a Sarah Palinish.. NON debacle debate performance.

here is what McVegas sees the electoral map looking like...

NH..Colorado.. Wisconsin... Virginia ... all blue unless a game changing campaign narrative comes into play
3 solid Red states are battlegrounds... I am counting Texas... the demographics are no different than Arizona.. in fact more pronounced for Democratic pickup due to the larger black percentage of the population there  and unlike Florida.. there is not a subset of the Hispanic population (Cuban-Americans) that has been GOP leaning that could flip either way... ie if Arizona is in play.. it is safe to assume Texas is.

leaving PA as battleground.. he isn't going to win it.. but all this is academic.. if he doesn't win it.. he has no path to win. Thus he will have campaign and campaign hard there.. so we'll leave it open. Anything can happen...

I think this is a fairly accurate statement of where the election is at the moment.. and it is being very kind to Trump and his chances..




Edited by micky - August 07 2016 at 09:17

yeah... I'm sure he he colecting a few season's worth of storylines for a future reality show based his experiences..

latest poll out in Va. Up to 12 points. Virginia is likely over...still nothing from Texas.

Speaking of... how interesting is this article.  Written last year.. prior to the riseof Trump likely advancing the fall of the Republican Party by an election cycle or two. Electoral assumption were made with the obvious assumption that the Republican candidate wouldn't go out of his way to alienatate the very groups the party can't to even think of winning an election.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/16/1370547/-When-Red-States-Turn-Blue-An-Anticipatory-History-of-the-Next-Twenty-Years

interesting article in general.. but take note of the last section...

I won't complain if the 2032 electoral map looks like this:

But here's the thing. I don't actually think it will look like this. Or if it does, it won't continue to look like this in 2040. Because it would just be unsustainable for the Republican Party to do so poorly in presidential elections. Eventually they'll have to adapt and compete with Democrats for some of the same voters, rather than depend on their old/white/dying base. In other words, they're going to have to moderate. And that's the real good news in all this - because it means American politics is poised to turn to the left. Maybe Republicans adapt by appealing to more people of color, or maybe they become more competitive with moderate whites. Either way, our politics will be better off, and our country will be, too.

umm...isn't  that  exactly what we are dealing with..  and unsustainable and still worsening electoral equation and it just didn't come out of nowhere. Hopefully someone caught that factoid in an article I posted some time back.  You have to go all the way back to 1988 to find an election where the Republican candidate won the Presidency.. the night of the election. Both 2000 and 2004 were decided on a knives edge and were not decided until after election day. The electoral math equation is already unsustainable.  So when will the GOP start to moderate?  Lose the hate and division and try to appeal to gays, blacks and hispanics... the point is.. it can't until it disowns the very voters that put Trump where he is.. the same ones that put the leaders in Congress where they are at.