American Politics the 2016 edition

that is what a Clinton victory looks like..

losing Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Very plausible path for her... less so for Trump to even get close.


She is ahead in N.C in the latest polls there.. and unlike Arizona... this a state nearly tipped blue from Red for the last couple cycles. Not a one off (Trump effect) which might be accelerating Arizona's eventual/possible turn due to longer term demographic changes.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/y1yvd

hahahha.. you won't hear that from me.... not anytime soon at least. 

Perhaps not until 2020 where a Clinton v. Cruz v Johnson race 3 way race might look like this...


http://www.270towin.com/maps/3Ldo3

yep.. for what it is worth.  

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-34549BEAED04456D

The fact again it is in play is game set match for Trump. We said it early Kelvin, said it loud.. if Trump has to defend red states.. much less lose them. It is game over for him...

don't get me wrong...  I LOVE Oklahoma. Loved the years I spent there.. but god almighty.. for left coast born.. right coast raised social liberal... I felt like I was on Mars.

Honest story... first weekend in Stillwater... I decided to take my Firebird out for a high speed tilt down the country roads to check out the scenery... I must have been doing 110 down this road when I see a pickup coming at me from the opposite direction...  I let off the gas to a decent speed and as I drove by him you know what he did...

the old coot actually waved at me...  I was flabbergasted.. I immediately pulled over.. Thinking he was trying to tell me my car was on fire... or I had a young calf or something caught in my grill...

no... he was just being friendly... that blew my mind. I was used to getting the middle finger from drivers everywhere you drove...

great people.. but yeah man.. the day they vote Democratic is the day the Republican candidate sprouts horns and grabs a pitchfork and sacrifices a young nubile WHITE virgin on prime time TV for all to see (otherwise the story would be written off a liberal media bias)

Oh Fox, when "fair and balanced" bites you in the ass.   Nice.

rogerthat wrote: JJLehto wrote: Yeah, Sanders was simply the first to say out loud what many Americans have been thinking, the middle really is in dire straits. The number has shrunk, and yes some have gone on to higher but many have slipped lower, and middle class income has fallen. I have said this story many times before, my family went from a 1 job family that was doing pretty solid, to a 4 job family which at one point cut all unnecessary spending out, and was still doing worse. Things were real bad after the recession when my father lost his job and his new was at a lower wage, but it goes long before that, since 2001 basically each year seemed a bit worse off. By 2006 already both parents were working full time and I was working 25-30 hours a week and we were barely getting by.  What you described in DuPage county is indeed a nationwide problem.  The working class have it worse, and it was noted early in this campaign that white working class Americans, especially males, have seen a huge spike in obesity, hard drug use even suicide. Was even alluded to in one of the Democratic debates. It's a shame much of this has manifested in the form of Trump...while he's deplorable he is absolutely tapping something real, something Sanders did as well though he was actually sincere  Sorry to hear about what you've been through, man.  Hope things are at least a bit better now.  And it comes as a shock to me that it was already that bad in 2006 when most of us from the outside thought US was doing incredibly well. JJLehto wrote: Sadly, many of these people are racist/xenophobic and understandably mad at the politicians, so someone like Trump can thrive. It's upsetting, besides seeing how ugly some Americans can get, that Trump is using them. He is just channeling their anger through racism and general anti establishment rhetoric, no real plan. Wanting to keep medicare/medicaid/social security is nice and he wants to cut some taxes for the middle class down but none of this will actually reverse anything. Going back to the dead horse I keep beating...this is a golden opportunity for the Democratic Party. They must capitalize on this anger as well, in a productive way, would be good politically and ya know, actually have some attempt at rectifying the problem.  It is a deadly cocktail of nationalism combined with populism.  Politicians in India have worked that formula to death.  Before the 1991 IMF-administered reforms, we had reached a point where on the one hand there was a fanning of communal sentiments by the cultural right wing (culminating in the widely reported demolition of a mosque built by Emperor Babur) and reservation of govt jobs for the backward classes as appeasement.  Because there was literally nothing else to look forward to for the people.  It is true that economic growth, well growth that covers a lot of people in its sweep and not just the top 1%, solves a lot of problems and the absence of growth creates problems that would be once unimaginable.  I never thought I'd see far right parties rise in Europe.  My blood boils when I think of the massive economic mismanagement that is really the root cause of these problems.  If only people got jobs and were at least reasonably comfortable, they would be happy and actually learn to live with each other.  When there's less food to go around, we squabble and start hating the 'other'.

Ugh I always get so distracted in here. This is the reason I came to post.

I saw that and sure as hell did spit beer over all the monitor..

latest polls out today...  Trump going into the tank.  Interesting one I've been watching...  the NH Senate race. Adv. the Democratic challenger... 10 point lead over the GOP chick. Peyote or whatever her name was. Democrats need that seat in plausible scenarios to take the Senate since they likely lost out on picking up Rubio's Florida Senate seat.

had a really neat political round table discussion with my work crew today... a microcosm of America if you will. In percentages that will very soon mirror America

2 white guys... one middle aged fart... one younger (late 20's)
1 Asian-American  (Vietnamese) who was born there and moved with his family here and became citizens
1 Black guy... in his middle 50's.
and finally the man himself. Isi.  A naturalized citizen from Mexico.

we are working class grunts. Jimmy (the Vietnamese guy) is taking night classes at college...  myself I had 8 years of college but got nothing from it but a pin from AA and more war stories of wanton debachery than any normal man could imagine.

The other three... didn't finish high school.

the votes... on how they plan on voting.

4 Clinton...

and the other. Mike, the other white guy. Recognizes Trump shouldn't be within 10 miles of the White House but hates Hillary with a passion that personally I don't understand.  He was leaning towards not voting until I mentioned the Libertarian Party.  He is liking what he finding out about the Party.  Like me on social issues, he is very driven by particular issues.  Mine is the overall culture war and control of the Supreme Court as the final defender of ALL Americans basic rights... his is guns. I completely understand the love affair with guns.. I've been there... unlike me he hasn't seen just what guns really do to people so I lean more toward responsible gun control.  He is deathly distrusting of politicians and doesn't think it will stop merely with 'common sense' gun control measures.

What was really interesting was Isi's thoughts.. and he told me.. the GOP is very close to alienating the Hispanic vote just as thoroughly as they did the blacks. It isn't just crackpot theories and political science.. it is reality. The GOP is f**ked...