American Politics the 2016 edition

JJLehto wrote: micky wrote: JJLehto wrote: Well I wish I shared your optimism for 2024.  you are watching the same train wreck as I am that is the Republican Party... don't assume.. that their substanial internal problems don't disappear when Trump goes. They have a huge problem, potentially a fatal one, and to fix it.. they may have to burn down the party. That is the story you don't read.  Look no further than the head scratching actions of Ryan. He knows it, they all do.  They are on a high speed train going straight off the cliff.. and they don't know how to stop it. so yes.. color me very optimism for the long term prospects of a counter Reagan Revolution.. what I am calling the Warren Revolution.  Wait till ya see my next post when I talk about the under 30 voters. A GOP implosion, having it all burn down could always rejuvenate them. If the Dems don't capitalize in the void..well I'll just pray they do. There is a chance to strengthen the party for a whole generation or two, like the New Deal, they better not squander it just to please a few wealthy donors and the finance sector. Not that we'd survive anyway. The leeches can only suck so much from the country before it dies, and thus they do to. The extreme short sightedness our political and business leaders have shown for several decades boggle my mind.

oh for sure it would rejuvenate ..whatever came out of it. As I posted earlier.. I think the GOP dies out this ... it takes guts and foresight to fix what is broken and they don't have it.  Not an indictment on them.. it is perhaps simply too much to ask gravy train politicans who have gotten used to getting fat at the trough to suddenly turn into matyr's for their party.

I don't think the GOP can fix their internal problems, the contradiction between who they have to appeal to remain relevant in national elections.. and who they have appealed to have  gotten rich and powerful off of. A bunch of religious zealots, bigots, nativists, and white working class voters DUPED into thinking that who x sleeps with or which bathroom they use in more important than their own financial well being.

I think the realization.. and it will come.. by the 'working class' that the Democratic Party is trying to improve their lives.. not the GOP which appeals to their fear and anger yet does nothing for them. That will be the final nail in the coffin of the party..

in the meantime... as I've said before..  watch the Libertarian Party. There are actually sane rational Republican voters out there.. they will be looking for.. already looking now I suspect.. for a party that they can relate to.. not the hive of fate, fear, anger, and bigotry that has become the GOP.

That breaking apart of the GOP will leave a massive vaccuum for the Democrats to exploit. And yes.. it will likely coincide with Hillary clearing out...and the accendance of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.


Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 14:53

micky wrote: I'm not sure what you think Kelvin.. I see 4 states really in play. Can go either way... Pennsylvania would have been here.. but obviously the very succesful convention, or judging on the polls.. the dumpster fire of a GOP one, put the critical Philly suburbs into the Democratic column.  That is a half a million vote advantage..  Trump can win.. but not likely.. the 4 I see obviously Ohio... the one battleground state that I think is trending red. Even if is still voting Democratic More on that later, for that is for the working class that are in the GOP camp ... for now... Iowa.. Florida... North Carolina.. a fascinating state A red state going where Virginia has already... transitioning from Red to Blue.  2008, 2012... both elections it was the 2nd closest state in terms of results.  Demographic changes and continued Yankee migration into that state will turn it blue before too long. to be followed I think.. perhaps in the next 8 to 12 years by Georgia and Arizona.. going from Red to Blue. but as we showed earlier.. it doesn't matter... PA + Colorado+ Nevada.. along with Va and Wisconsin means 270 for Clinton

^^^  I hear you, thanks for the answer.  

Edited by TeleStrat - July 31 2016 at 15:08

TeleStrat wrote: Mick, I honestly don't know what all could happen before November.  And I know you guys (and a lot of other people) enjoy this and so do I. Especially with all of the dumb things people are saying and doing. My point is whether or not there is any scenario that may change the (reasonably) obvious results. A lot of people can't stand either candidate. Is it possible for the third party to start gaining support and maybe win a state or two? At the same time one of the major candidates will lose a state or two. How badly would Clinton have to screw up to start losing some electoral votes?  Could Donald Trump step into a phone booth and step out a political Superman? Could anything change the outcome of this election.  If the answer is no, then I've suddenly lost interest.

so I gave my thoughts on how Trump can win.  He is not going to... because he has done everything NOT to do the thing that had to be done. Break up the Obama coalition.  He faced a tough task doing that purely on the issues, as the GOP has obviously evolved into a race of bigots and racists.  Who don't care for the plight of blacks and think Latinos don't belong here.  He is simply making what was hard, next to impossible as he is driving independents apparently into Hillary's camp based on polling movement. not taking away Democrats who have formed a winning coalition.

Let me touch on the other things you asked. All my two cents obviously...

yes.. I've gone to great lengths and vitriol to explain that winner in all this could be the Libertarian Party. They won't win any states but as Donald continues, there are still  3 months of weekends like he had this weekend where he continually embarrasses himself and his party .. and the voters who are not raving bible beaters or fear or hate mongers.  They can and perhaps finally will start looking for a party that represents them.  Again.. Trump is not the problem.. it is the voters that put him there.. and the party that encouraged and provoked all that fear and hate just to 'get out the vote' as they are .. if one can be blunt..an ideologically bankrupt party that has taken refuge in social conversatism and playing off left vs. right on social issues and doing so by demonizing those on the left.

Do they win any states.. not this time.  The thing to watch is the vote percentage they get.. certain thresholds bring greater visibility and money. The key one is 25%. IF they reach that.. good bye GOP.. they reach major party status for 2020.  Pretty much guarantied an accelarated split in the GOP and reassuring Hillary a 2nd term even if she got caught emailing nude pictures of herself to Putin.

Can Hillary lose the election as it is pretty obvious Trump can not win it. He has shown what we all suspected him to be, completely unsuited .. in knowledge and temperment.. to be a Presidential candidate.. much less President.

I honestly don't think so.  She is no novice.. the one great threat she had was a potential split in the Democratic Party but (perhaps thanks to Trump) cooler and saner heads prevailed, perhaps knowing the stakes involved and the future opportunities which I have talked about,  and the party came together quite fabulously even when it looked on the brink last Monday.  I honestly don't see her, or think her capable of making a mistake that could drive Democrats to alllow Trump to become President. Regardless of her faults, she has never been accused of being stupid or unintelligent. 


Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 17:20

While I highly doubt Gary would win any states, I wont rule out Utah...only because they went SO heavily against Trump, and since the state is extremely Republican...I could see it being possible he wins a 3 way there. 

Yeah Mick I know she's a progressive in moderate's clothing. I actually don't doubt that really, all I doubt is her willingness to go against moneyed interests, and to resist them if offered. I mean she has her beliefs, but will you really go against the people that pay you? It's it just her of course, I have slammed many of both parties for being influenced by this pressure, she's far from alone. But yeah will she stay true to herself/go 100% if donors feel otherwise? The way I like to sum up my concern is with the saying: Climbed the mountain of poo to reach the flower at top, just to realize you lost the ability to smell along the way. OR perhaps a nicer/diff way to put it is the classic story of doing what you need to get to the top, likely for good reasons, but have made so many deals and compromises along the way...your hands are now tied upon getting there.

Edited by JJLehto - August 01 2016 at 14:02

Interesting article here about Trump... explains A LOT! Still can't quite believe he picked a fight with.. well.. the ONE thing any polictician...  human being for that matter can.. the family of solider who gave his life for his country.  Sure didn't fit the narrative of Islamic bogeymen they wanted to present did it. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/trump-and-narcissistic-pe_b_11289332.html

I also made the mistake of peeking in to the Fauxnews website.. figuring ..as it was... this story was buried deeply in the website but one thing that stood out (in the frint print of headlines). The open letter to the Khan family from some piece of sh*t who should have never have been allowed to wear the uniform.  That pissed me off... fair and balanced. gotta to love it.






Edited by micky - August 01 2016 at 20:21

JJLehto wrote: Yeah Mick I know she's a progressive in moderate's clothing. I actually don't doubt that really, all I doubt is her willingness to go against moneyed interests, and to resist them if offered. I mean she has her beliefs, but will you really go against the people that pay you? It's it just her of course, I have slammed many of both parties for being influenced by this pressure, she's far from alone. But yeah will she stay true to herself/go 100% if donors feel otherwise? The way I like to sum up my concern is with the saying: Climbed the mountain of poo to reach the flower at top, just to realize you lost the ability to smell along the way. OR perhaps a nicer/diff way to put it is the classic story of doing what you need to get to the top, likely for good reasons, but have made so many deals and compromises along the way...your hands are now tied upon getting there.

she took the money..  but I honestly don't think she is going to have a choice in the matter.  I think the moneyed interests as it were.. know the gig is up.  The GOP sure as sh*t ain't going to save them and know that Hillary won't even if she were so inclined.  Regardless of what HIllary would be inclined to do.. she will have no choice but to follow the Sanders/Warren lead on this one. Otherwise even if the GOP splits or nominates Cruz.. she'll lose in 2020.. to either Warren or Sanders insurgency from her own party in the primaries.  I think she is smart enough to read the tea leaves as well or better than internet hacks like us... the Party and its core are moving left.. move with it.. or get left behind (voted out)

I like your confidence, Mike, and I'll take those terms; 20 odd years 'til GOP bleeds out and is partially absorbed by a Libertine party increasingly ready and tight-sprung to make a move? (or a non-move; all they have to do is wait it out).

Of course be careful what you wish for, maybe a New Conservatism will be worse.   Nothing like Good Old Reliable Nathan Detroit !

LearsFool wrote: ..... But moving on, I've found some levity - and Mick, you're gonna love this! - from the fact that Michael Savage has just thrown a fit over Hillary's pantsuits and is now threatening to leave the country over it.