Covid-19 and the madness of crowds |
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 20 2020 at 08:26 | |||
I read the article. I can largely see the basis of what he's saying, but I think it is fundamentally misguided and really really off the mark. In particular it is frustrating to see the "nobody knows what is going on" conflation with "we do not know exactly what is happening but we have a range in which we can be exceedingly confident" which is used as a lazy way to tear down real knowledge.
And then there's something like this, which with no exaggeration, is f**king insane.
Edited by Equality 7-2521 - April 20 2020 at 08:27 |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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essexboyinwales
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 27 2015 Location: Bridgend Status: Offline Points: 5174 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 03:56 | |||
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177 What an absolute f**kwit this man is. 1 for even having these thoughts, and 2 for having the whole conversation (pretty much with himself) at a press conference in front of millions who seem to take his word for anything... May I suggest that he nominates himself to be the first to trial the injection of disinfectant? I mean, he's not a doctor, but he's got a good you-know-what... |
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BaldFriede
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 02 2005 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 10266 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 04:57 | |||
There are now about 890,000 confirmed cases and 50372 confirmed deaths in the USA alone, which makes the mortality rate more than double as high as I originally calculated. Anybody still laughing at my initial calculation?
Edited by BaldFriede - April 24 2020 at 05:06 |
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BaldJean and I; I am the one in blue. |
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chopper
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: July 13 2005 Location: Essex, UK Status: Offline Points: 20030 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 05:07 | |||
Hopefully there aren't thousands of Trump supporters trying this out as we speak...
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 06:33 | |||
US President Donald Trump has been lambasted by the medical community after suggesting research into whether coronavirus might be treated by injecting disinfectant into the body. He also appeared to propose irradiating patients' bodies with UV light, an idea dismissed by a doctor at the briefing. Another of his officials had moments earlier said sunlight and disinfectant were known to kill the infection. Disinfectants are hazardous substances and can be poisonous if ingested. Even external exposure can be dangerous to the skin, eyes and respiratory system.
What did President Trump say? During Thursday's White House coronavirus task force briefing, an official presented the results of US government research that indicated coronavirus appeared to weaken more quickly when exposed to sunlight and heat. The study also showed bleach could kill the virus in saliva or respiratory fluids within five minutes and isopropyl alcohol could kill it even more quickly. William Bryan, acting head of the US Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate, outlined the findings at the news conference.
While noting the research should be treated with caution, Mr Trump suggested further research in that area. "So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous - whether it's ultraviolet or just very powerful light," the president said, turning to Dr Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response co-ordinator, "and I think you said that hasn't been checked but you're going to test it. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside of the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you're going to test that too. Sounds interesting," the president continued. "And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? "So it'd be interesting to check that." Pointing to his head, Mr Trump went on: "I'm not a doctor. But I'm, like, a person that has a good you-know-what."
He turned again to Dr Birx and asked if she had ever heard of using "the heat and the light" to treat coronavirus. "Not as a treatment," Dr Birx said. "I mean, certainly, fever is a good thing. When you have a fever, it helps your body respond. But I've not seen heat or light." "I think it's a great thing to look at," Mr Trump said. Media playback is unsupported on your device Across the United States, some people insist the lockdowns should be lifted and states reopenedDisinfectants don't work inside the bodyAnalysis by Rachel Schraer, BBC health reporter Using a disinfectant can kill viruses on surfaces. It's a very good idea to keep clean the things you touch, using products with anti-microbial properties - for example, substances with a high alcohol content. There is also some evidence that, in general, viruses on surfaces die more quickly when directly exposed to sunlight. But we don't know how much or how long they have to be exposed for UV light to have an effect, so you're far safer just washing your hands and surfaces and trying not to touch your face. Crucially, this is only about infected objects and surfaces - not about what happens once the virus is inside your body. One of the main ways of catching the virus is by breathing in droplets expelled by an infected person, mainly by sneezing and coughing. The virus very quickly begins to multiply and spread, eventually reaching the lungs. Not only does consuming or injecting disinfectant risk poisoning and death, it's not even likely to be effective. Equally, by the time the virus has taken hold inside your body, no amount of UV light on your skin is going to make a difference. And since UV radiation damages the skin, using it to kill the virus could be a case of - to borrow a well-worn phrase - the cure being worse than Edited by SteveG - April 24 2020 at 06:59 |
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 07:51 | |||
Would solve a good number of problems though.
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Tapfret
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 12 2007 Location: Bryant, Wa Status: Offline Points: 8594 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 09:06 | |||
Holy crap who is that nut bag? This buffoon is talking about phage transduction which is best known as the way bacteria aquire antibiotic resistance through macrophage(virus) transport of RNA from 1 bacterium to another. This has nothing to do with external viral vectors. Comparing the 2 is like saying "taxicabs move people from place to place, so standing in front of them is natural". |
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 10:58 | |||
I certainly wasn’t laughing. I still don’t, because it is not a funny subject. What I questioned, as you well know, was the mortality rate, which I still question given the utter lack of true infection numbers. That is a given, I am afraid.
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Catcher10
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: December 23 2009 Location: Emerald City Status: Offline Points: 17904 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 11:25 | |||
Agree, this is not a funny situation nothing to laugh about. Not only all the deaths but millions of people affected in ways like out of work no income. We all know that the pink elephant in the room is China, they are not reporting cases accurately so yes the mortality rate is highly suspect given the population in China.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 12:38 | |||
As as usual, Jose, you get it. You hit the nail on the head. When will people realise that I am not trying to diminish the pain and suffering caused by this virus, but am simply trying to say that decisions are being made on the basis of extremely unreliable data being passed off as “science”? In addition, when will people realise that the points I have tried to make regarding the pain and death caused by recession (at the very least), health depression, loneliness, lack of access to hospitals for treatment will be terrifying numbers as a result of very poor decisions made on the back of unreliable science and shocking policy failure, both pre and post virus? When will people realise that it is always the poorest and least able to cope with all of this who will suffer the most? I am not laughing. I might take the piss out of people from time to time, but I am most definitely not laughing. I find this whole thing utterly appalling.
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Tom Ozric
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2005 Location: Olympus Mons Status: Offline Points: 15926 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 14:08 | |||
....and it’s far from over......
Just when you thought is was safe to go back in the water...... |
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Catcher10
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: December 23 2009 Location: Emerald City Status: Offline Points: 17904 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 12:22 | |||
Your spot on Steve.....I got it early on but left the discussion to others to continue the distortion. If people, the world, do not keep China as the wild card then well, I don't know.....Honestly I have not been paying attention to the numbers, my attention span is concentrated on when a vaccine will be developed so all this horrid mess can be quieted down and the world gets back to pre Covid atmosphere. |
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The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: February 01 2011 Location: Michigan Status: Offline Points: 13109 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 18:06 | |||
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
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Snicolette
Forum Senior Member Joined: November 02 2018 Location: OR Status: Offline Points: 6046 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 18:08 | |||
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"Into every rain, a little life must fall." ~Tom Rapp
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BaldFriede
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 02 2005 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 10266 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 18:39 | |||
Very detailed statistics for the Covid-19 pandemic: I am not pulling my numbers out of a hat. These statistics come with all the necessary caveats.
Edited by BaldFriede - April 25 2020 at 19:51 |
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BaldJean and I; I am the one in blue. |
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Grumpyprogfan
Forum Senior Member Joined: July 09 2019 Location: Kansas City Status: Offline Points: 12054 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 19:17 | |||
Stats rule.
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Catcher10
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: December 23 2009 Location: Emerald City Status: Offline Points: 17904 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 20:11 | |||
Since every thread here now takes a political position......Why don't you ask Hillary how stats worked out for her. |
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BaldFriede
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 02 2005 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 10266 |
Posted: April 25 2020 at 20:23 | |||
I am not taking a political position at all. I am taking a scientific position.
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BaldJean and I; I am the one in blue. |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: April 26 2020 at 00:28 | |||
The argument isn't with lockdown/shelter in place approach being a very blunt and crude way of dealing with the virus and one already inflicting almost endless economic damage. I would personally push back against anybody characterising an economic argument as 'money minded' - yeah, why don't you be my guest and tell the poor not to worry about the economy. The argument is with the notion that letting go on a wing and a prayer would somehow be a better alternative. Neither you nor others who are persuaded of this notion have provided anything other than rhetoric in support of this argument, so the reactions you receive shouldn't surprise you. US, UK, India, all three missed the bus by taking the onset of the epidemic too lightly. Both US and India made the mistake of assuming blocking travellers from China would suffice. By the time they realised travellers from elsewhere too were carrying the virus and transmitting it to others in the country, it was too late. There has been much China-bashing on the justified grounds that they attempted a cover up of the situation and cost precious time for the rest of the world. While true, by Jan-end, it was clear that China was dealing with a serious epidemic which would wreak havoc if it spread to other countries. Feb and March were precious months for all three countries I mentioned above (as well as other laggards like Spain, Italy and France) to prepare adequately to deal with the virus. Models such as Korea's and Taiwan's were available as to how best to deal with the virus. They were ignored until too late by these countries. Germany does not seem to have (Friede/Jean can correct me if I am wrong about this) and has coped better with the virus as a result. But to get back to the point, there is a window of time when a solution based around social distancing and testing without a lockdown can work. If you do not act during that time, you are forced to impose a lockdown, which is what has happened in the laggard nations. I do have some criticism specific to India about what is being done during the lockdown. I think this is precious time that should be used to set up factories, warehouses etc to be social distancing-compliant. The risk of some of these workers (working on making suitable changes in these workplaces) contracting the virus is worth taking in return for being ready for the post lockdown world. I cannot say for sure being locked out, but I don't get the impression that that is being done. Every effort should be made to create a new normal with reduced physical contact or proximity. We are not going to be able to return to the old ways of doing things unless we accept on and off lockdowns all the way until we develop vaccines. A quick note about Sweden's numbers. Of their closed cases, 70% or so are deaths and 30% are recoveries. This is completely anomalous to the worldwide experience. Germany has a near 100% recovery rate with 1 or 2% being the death rate. France has higher deaths but it's still 30-70 deaths-recoveries (not the other way round). India's graph is in between Germany and France in terms of recoveries-deaths. The fact that Sweden has way more deaths than recoveries in closed cases suggests strongly that they are under-testing and under-reporting cases proportionate to their population. I would therefore recommend that Spectator & Co hold off uncorking the bubbly for some more time because what is off about Sweden's numbers may become clear in the weeks to come.
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Tom Ozric
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2005 Location: Olympus Mons Status: Offline Points: 15926 |
Posted: April 26 2020 at 01:03 | |||
......and now with Kim Jong-Un in a state of dire health, what’s Trump’s next move........?
(Nothing to do with Covid19 but just a thought....) |
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