Covid-19 and the madness of crowds - Progressive Rock Music Forum

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The Doctor View Drop Down

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Joined: June 23 2005
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Posted: April 12 2020 at 18:16

I'm lucky to be living in a part of the country right now that has remained relatively unscathed by the virus. We only have 20 confirmed active cases in the county in which I reside. Also, I've been working from home for the past 4 years anyway, so aside from my wife and my cats, my daily interactions in person are limited anyway. Which is good because I do have high blood pressure and asthma (both of which are well-controlled) and I hit the big 5-0 last year. But I think we're pretty safe here especially since the only time we leave the house is to go to the grocery store (which is now limited to 50 people in the store at one time). And I'm also almost OCD in my hand-washing anyway (cat allergies + cats). But I do have to nag my wife sometimes to wash her hands.

I think there's a lot of blame to go around, from countries to presidents/prime ministers to governors and mayors. And some of it is beyond anyone's control. I think now would be a good time for everyone to come together, beat this thing down, get economies rolling again. And then we can all go back to political sniping. There are people in nursing homes dying. A neighbor of mine who is in her early 50s just overcame non-Hodgkins Lymphoma and has a very weakened immune system and something like this would be an almost guaranteed death sentence for her. My mother in law is 72 and quite diabetic. And 6.6 million people are out of work in the US because of this. I just hope we can get it under control soon and everyone can get back to living again.

I can understand your anger at me, but what did the horse I rode in on ever do to you?

Lewian

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Posted: April 13 2020 at 04:01

@jamesbaldwin: I don't disagree with you on the Coronavirus situation, but other than that, the public health system in Germany is far from perfect and far from social democratic. There are bad things going on as are elsewhere, in other corners of the health system. I don't necessarily feel served worse in Italy by the health system than I did in Germany or the UK. The Germans basically got two things right: 1) They tested a lot early on, and 2) they have more beds for intensive therapy, by far the most in Europe as far as I know. There was also a lot of miscoordination over Coronavirus testing and documentation in Germany, and some think also there true mortality is quite a bit higher than recorded. Anyway, they did well overall compared to most others, that I give to them.

Well the Americans shouldn't comment on this as a result of European health systems anyway before they know their own results in the end...

Edited by Lewian - April 13 2020 at 04:03

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 06:39

US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

The Dark Elf View Drop Down

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 07:56

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.

Yes, I've actually seen some minimization comments on the Web relating this to the "common cold". Here in Michigan, we had a group of folks protesting in the state capitol because the inconvenience of not being able to go to Home Depot to buy grass seed and fertilizer ran counter to their Constitutional right to have a healthy front lawn. I believe it is a secondary item in the 2nd Amendment, the "Guns and Grass" clause.

...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...

SteveG

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 08:04

^ Geez-us. More people die getting hit by buses. Or thrown out of windows. Or something like that.

Edited by SteveG - April 16 2020 at 08:06

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Easy Money View Drop Down

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 08:32

The Dark Elf wrote:

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.

I saw a picture of the 'protesters', hilarious to say the least. It almost looked like one of those staged events cops do to try and catch outstanding warrants. It was that kind of crowd.

Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446

lazland

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 12:15

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.

The stats I see show that, on average, 61,000 people die from flu annually in the US. I think you now have 30,000 Covid deaths?

Having said that, pointlessly bandying figures about, it does seem likely to me that Covid deaths will continue to rise with you, and may well exceed annual flu deaths.

It does not, though, change at all my stance on tackling the virus and the multiple deaths and deprivation the lockdown is and will cause.

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 16 2020 at 19:12

According to CDC stats that would not be accurate.

How many do you think would have died up to this point without the lockdowns and mobilization of testing / PPE?

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

lazland

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Posted: April 17 2020 at 00:44

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

According to CDC stats that would not be accurate.

How many do you think would have died up to this point without the lockdowns and mobilization of testing / PPE?

By God, this is dull and pointless. You insist on bandying these figures about, which really is missing completely the points and opinions I have been making, which are political, social, and economic, not a “which is the worst” game.

But, if you really insist, the obvious answer to your question, which is meaningless, is I have not got a f**king clue. If I did, I would be a lottery winner many times over owing to an ability to know an unknown.

Pointless question for you. How many people do you think would have died from flu without the vaccine?

See? Fun this, isn’t it?

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 17 2020 at 06:48

It's not a pointless question. It's entirely germane to what you're saying. You claim that the economic and societal damage of the lockdown is going to outweigh that of the virus itself. That necessitates that you have some sort of bound on the damage done by COVID if it was unchecked. Otherwise your statement is meaningless.

On the other hand, the question you asked me is just a pointless prediction. I don't need to have an estimate of the number of flu deaths sans vaccine because I'm making no claim contingent upon having such an estimate. Having said that, a really dumb estimate from looking at historical CFR suggests something like 200k with a substantial right skew on the error.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 17 2020 at 06:50

The Dark Elf wrote:

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.

I do think the fact that supply stores like Home Depot are operating but in some places closing their garden centers is a bit draconian. Gardening is a good activity for people right now. I'd imagine having safe outlets probably helps with the ability of social distancing to persist in the long run.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

timothy leary View Drop Down

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Posted: April 18 2020 at 13:35

Fortunate for us we have been gardening for 50 years on the same one third acre and do not need anything from big box stores or nurseries. We are still practicing stay at home social distancing.

Catcher10

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Posted: April 18 2020 at 20:22

These next few weeks will be TOUGH! As I think many states will be seeing more outside activity with people going to parks, beaches and not doing the social distance thingy.

State Governors better get a handle on what they want to allow or not allow and be clear, already seeing pics of Florida beaches full of people. I hear here in WA that parks are going to open up and some farmers markets??

One thing is for sure, people want to go back to work.

lazland

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 01:52

Interesting article from Sweden:

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/in-sweden-will-voluntary-self-isolation-work-better-than-state-enforced-lockdowns-in-the-long-run/

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

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lazland

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 02:00

And I have pasted the article below from The Observer online this morning. Another fascinating insight into how scientists, epidemiologists, and other experts are arguing like cat and dog over what is the best way forward, as I have said on this site ad nauseum.

A major British city should be used to trial mass testing as a way out of the coronavirus lockdown, according to a group of leading epidemiologists and public health experts.

They warn that simply using periods of mass lockdowns and relaxations to control the virus could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people before a vaccine becomes available “with the most disadvantaged groups experiencing the greatest suffering”.

Instead, the group states that one or more cities with a population of 200,000 to 300,000 – about a dozen ranging in size from Aberdeen to Bradford – should be used to trial a mass-testing programme. The group includes Julian Peto, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, David Hunter, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford, and Nisreen A Alwan, an associate professor in public health at Southampton University.

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“Quarantine would end when all residents of the household test negative at the same time. Everyone else in the city can resume normal life, if they choose to,” said the group in a letter to the Lancet journal. “A decision to proceed with national roll-out can then be made. If the epidemic is controlled, hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved, intensive care units will no longer be overloaded, and the effects of lockdown on mental ill-health and unemployment will end.”

It comes amid continuing doubts about how the government came to its testing target of 100,000 a day by the end of the month. Medical experts and scientists have suggested that it is both too big for the current demand from key workers who think they are infected, and too low to be useful for a mass “test and trace” strategy to loosen the lockdown.

Allan Wilson, president of the Institute of Biomedical Science (IBMS) which represents NHS lab staff and biomedical scientists, said there “was no evidence base” to the figure. He said: “No one, as far as I can see, has built it up from the bottom, depending on predicted demand. It’s not an easy thing to do, but even looking at various scenarios would help.”

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:37

Where's the arguing in that picture? Test and trace is a way to end the lockdown. It was not a viable policy for the point in the outbreaks that Western countries found themselves when they took action as it requires both a floor of testing ability and ceiling of cases.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

lazland

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:48

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Where's the arguing in that picture? Test and trace is a way to end the lockdown. It was not a viable policy for the point in the outbreaks that Western countries found themselves when they took action as it requires both a floor of testing ability and ceiling of cases.

Indeed it does require a floor of testing ability. You are spot on, and governments were warned about this quite some time ago. That is a failure of policy and infrastructure.

I would like you to have a look at this article below. It was sent to me by my wife, and, although very long, makes some extremely interesting points about our attitudes as a society, and the potential fallout from all of this.

https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/?_page=3&fbclid=IwAR3J5MzFJ_vcU2GbAFGZFiaOucKmPUhbB4AhWkVOMONxCH2FIUYKDXeIvWM

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:51

lazland wrote:

Interesting article from Sweden:

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/in-sweden-will-voluntary-self-isolation-work-better-than-state-enforced-lockdowns-in-the-long-run/

This isn't to nitpick the article which is mostly fine but

- Cross cultural / geographic comparisons make little sense to me. Policies that work in Siberia aren't necessarily those that work for Miami beach.

- The idea that flattening the curve to prevent ICU overload is the 'point' of lockdowns is odd. The point is to save lives. Preventing health system collapse of course is a huge part of that but you know we also want less people to die irrespective of whether that occurs or not.

- There's some evidence that Sweden's ICU policy has changed which is causing the apparent flattening of admissions.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:53

lazland wrote:

Indeed it does require a floor of testing ability. You are spot on, and governments were warned about this quite some time ago. That is a failure of policy and infrastructure.

https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/?_page=3&fbclid=IwAR3J5MzFJ_vcU2GbAFGZFiaOucKmPUhbB4AhWkVOMONxCH2FIUYKDXeIvWM

I'll do my best to finish it. Though given Eisenstein's publication history I might not be able to.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

lazland

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Posted: April 19 2020 at 06:08

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

lazland wrote:

Indeed it does require a floor of testing ability. You are spot on, and governments were warned about this quite some time ago. That is a failure of policy and infrastructure.

https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/?_page=3&fbclid=IwAR3J5MzFJ_vcU2GbAFGZFiaOucKmPUhbB4AhWkVOMONxCH2FIUYKDXeIvWM

I'll do my best to finish it. Though given Eisenstein's publication history I might not be able to.

Okay, thank you. I might point out that until this morning when my wife sent me the link, I had never heard of him Embarrassed

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

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