Covid-19 and the madness of crowds

While waiting for this site to come back up: just a few random thoughts and questions in no particular order:

If reinfection is actually possible, will the lockdown have to last until a vaccine has been developed and distributed? Does this mean that people with antibodies still won't be able to go to work? Will they need periodic antibody update tests?

If I were to develop a biological weapon, it would look a lot like this.

Why is the thought that this might be an escaped biological weapon absolutely taboo in practically every country?

How many researchers globally have fallen victim to this disease and how could this effect a treatment timeline?

Why is China doing so well with its outbreak while countries with similar containment measures such as South Korea are still badly struggling (although still far ahead of other countries)?

Why are mainly conservative politicians taking so many measures to downplay this, even at this stage?

Are the PPE equipment and the medical breathing apparatus seized by the US government being sold to free market companies to be sold to the highest bidder from there (including getting a cut), or are they just being stockpiled?
Does it look as if the Chinese are going to emerge as the global economic leader from all this?

Does it look as if with possible reinfection, diminishing antibody count over time, strange oxygen blood level counts, and conflicting body reactions relative to a patient’s age, this disease is going to be much more complicated and illusive than first thought, and thereby a vaccine or a cure might be much further away than originally thought?

Will it turn out that there will have to be different kinds of vaccines for different age groups, and reaction types in the blood work to the virus? How long might this then take?

Why am I hearing so much about possibly using existing countermeasures such as Chloroquine instead of anything concrete about the development process of a dedicated anti-Covid drug except vague generalizations?

Why are so many testing kits from different production locations contaminated or dysfunctional in bulk and all at once?

How reliable are the testing kits, and how do you test the testing kits that have been used? How can I be sure that the result of my test is correct?

How is it, that after Rand Paul, during the infectious state of his Corona virus infection, went strolling around the government and apparently nobody has been infected by him, even weeks later?

Why did the WHO take so long until after the pandemic to declare it a pandemic?

Are there any numbers to confirm that the US federal government is preferentially supplying conservative states with medical equipment?

Nothing about this is straight forward; it’s as if everything possible is being done to make things worse. Lagged responses, denials, political in fights, active obstruction of medical equipment deliveries; the list goes on. Everything is just so very wrong.

After this has been resolved, will there be any commercial competition left or are there only going to be a handful of giant global corporations?

Why is bureaucracy so insistently making things difficult for those most in need. First relief checks in the post in June or July for certain income groups? Seriously?

WHY did governments not react when they were warned in January of this year? Did they know it would be useless and have to burn itself out?

How high will the death toll in Sweden turn out to be?


Why is it that the worst thing in the world that can happen to a politician is a nasty tweet from POTUS? Is this what a career of service amounts to? Is it really THE END?

How does a conservative politician's mind work when he steps in fromt of a camera in full PPE and insists it's safe for everyone to come out and join him unprotected? This is pure comedy.

Why did the health workers going in voluntarily not get together and make their participation contingent on being supplied with adequate protective gear?

Why did it seem at first that only the old and infirm are infected? Has this changed over time, or did it go unnoticed that this was not actually the case?

Why are there so many conflicting announcements about the incubation time during the symptom free infectious period? If still uncertain, why not play it safe and go for the longest period? This currently assumed two week span seems very optimistic if generalized.

Why have the Chinese doctors that first warned of the pandemic received a posthumous apology while those still alive are still held in jail?

Apparently we are still at the early stage. What does that mean and what can we expect according to the scientists who work with such models? That we don't hear much doesn't bode well.

How is this going to play out in the 3rd world countries with zero hygiene and ten doctors to every one million patients?

Is it believable that colored people are more prone to be infected because the color of their skin prevents sufficient production of vitamin D, or could it be that that the health system in black communities is inadequate? More comedy?


Edited by npjnpj - April 09 2020 at 11:04

To prop old Laz, (he really doesn't need any help with his wonderful post) I too am in favor of herd immunity but with less cataclysmic outbreaks. Or if social distancing and vaccines fail. There is sound reasoning behind herd immunity, we did this as youngsters and it worked for conditions like chicken pox. I don't agree with it as a first line of defense for this particular type of outbreak. The risk of it failing is too detrimental.

npjnpj wrote: While waiting for this site to come back up: just a few random thoughts and questions in no particular order: There are some extremely interesting points here, and I would like to answer them. Once again, in red, not to shout, but to differentiate. If reinfection is actually possible, will the lockdown have to last until a vaccine has been developed and distributed? Does this mean that people with antibodies still won't be able to go to work? Will they need periodic antibody update tests? Nobody knows, I am afraid. However, most of the experts I have read believe that infection and survival leads to immunity, which is usual unless mutated strains start spreading, such as is the case with flu. Hence the reason for an annual flu vaccine. If I were to develop a biological weapon, it would look a lot like this. Bubonic plague or anthrax would be better, but the point is accepted. Why is the thought that this might be an escaped biological weapon absolutely taboo in practically every country? Because it is highly doubtful, and a wild, hysterical conspiracy theory. How many researchers globally have fallen victim to this disease and how could this effect a treatment timeline? f**k knows. Why is China doing so well with its outbreak while countries with similar containment measures such as South Korea are still badly struggling (although still far ahead of other countries)? Nobody really believes the Chinese figures. China is an extremely nasty totalitarian society which is sh*t scared of not being seen as the protector of its people. It will do anything to protect its governmental apparatus, even at the expense of lives or truth. Why are mainly conservative politicians taking so many measures to downplay this, even at this stage? Good question. Maybe they are idiots. Maybe the scientific advice is so inconsistent. Maybe they are doing what they think is right, which, after all, is their right. The people elected them, and the people can kick them out if they don’t agree with their handling of the crisis. Are the PPE equipment and the medical breathing apparatus seized by the US government being sold to free market companies to be sold to the highest bidder from there (including getting a cut), or are they just being stockpiled? No idea., but I would hope that neither is true. Is US federal government medical equipment really not being supplied to hospitals but instead passed on to private companies to sell to the state that bids highest? Again, no idea, but I would hope that this is merel6 partisan media reporting. Does it look as if the Chinese are going to emerge as the global economic leader from all this? Excellent question. My hope is that the answer is no. NO. I would hope that the infatuation with globalism will cease as a result of this, and we will start to build our own infrastructures. I won’t hold my breath, though. Does it look as if with possible reinfection, diminishing antibody count over time, strange oxygen blood level counts, and conflicting body reactions relative to a patient’s age, this disease is going to be much more complicated and illusive than first thought, and thereby a vaccine or a cure might be much further away than originally thought? Only a scientist can really answer this. Diseases are not, however, straightforward, and this is one of the reasons why I object to simplistic solutions. Will it turn out that there will have to be different kinds of vaccines for different age groups, and reaction types in the blood work to the virus? How long might this then take? No idea. Why am I hearing so much about possibly using existing countermeasures such as Chloroquine instead of anything concrete about the development process of a dedicated anti-Covid drug except vague generalizations? Because the media are endlessly wittering on about this and other absolute unknowns, when you wish they would just report the facts in a calm and measured manner. Why are so many testing kits from different production locations contaminated or dysfunctional in bulk and all at once? I believe you may be referring to Chinese manufactured stuff? Go figure. Maybe we won’t rely on them so much in the future, but, again, I won’t hold my breath. How reliable are the testing kits, and how do you test the testing kits that have been used? How can I be sure that the result of my test is correct? There have been reported incidents of incorrect testing, but I am of the opinion that the testing is, by and large, accurate in my country. We just have an abominable shortage. How is it, that after Rand Paul, during the infectious state of his Corona virus infection, went strolling around the government and apparently nobody has been infected by him, even weeks later? Because he is an arrogant prick? Why did the WHO take so long until after the pandemic to declare it a pandemic? Because they are bureaucrats, and there are specific measures to make and accept because they can do so. Are there any numbers to confirm that the US federal government is preferentially supplying conservative states with medical equipment? No idea, sorry. Nothing about this is straight forward; it’s as if everything possible is being done to make things worse. Lagged responses, denials, political in fights, active obstruction of medical equipment deliveries; the list goes on. Everything is just so very wrong. This, I present to you the human race. It is the way we are. You should read historical accounts of previous pandemics. They are fascinating. If I had a time machine, I would go back a few million years, and implore our ancestors to simply stay in the trees, eat, drink, and fornicate, without progressing. Not really worth it coming down from said trees and evolving, was it? After this has been resolved, will there be any commercial competition left or are there only going to be a handful of giant global corporations? I would celebrate the end of the global corporate culture. They are rapacious, and cause untold harm to our planet. I believe in localism, as far as is possible. Why is bureaucracy so insistently making things difficult for those most in need. First relief checks in the post in June or July for certain income groups? Seriously? We get the government we deserve. If governments continually pass pointless laws, then the machine will enact them. Not our fault, really, Blame the politicians and the people who elect them. WHY did governments not react when they were warned in January of this year? Did they know it would be useless and have to burn itself out? The inevitable public enquiries in mature democracies will be fascinating, and will lead to metaphorical heads rolling. Should be fun. How high will the death toll in Sweden turn out to be? Probably no more than anywhere else per capita. I may, of course, be wrong. Will anyone ever be held accountable? For what? The spread of a virus? Such things do not tend to listen to us. This whole thing stinks of culling an overpopulated world. If I get your meaning correctly, this is the worst type of hysterical conspiracy theory. It is a virus, which likely spread in China from batty bat to humans via a filthy anaimal market. Viruses spread. It is nature. No more, no less. Why is it that the worst thing in the world that can happen to a politician is a nasty tweet from POTUS? Is this what a career of service amounts to? Is it really THE END? Not sure what you mean here. How does a conservative politician's mind work when he steps in fromt of a camera in full PPE and insists it's safe for everyone to come out and join him unprotected? This is pure comedy. Politician’s, eh? Such stuff is part of the comedy of life. Enjoy it. It really is beyond satire. Why did the health workers going in voluntarily not get together and make their participation contingent on being supplied with adequate protective gear? Because they are dedicated public servants, and deserving of all our praise. Why did it seem at first that only the old and infirm are infected? Has this changed over time, or did it go unnoticed that this was not actually the case? Nobody said it was only the old and infirm infected. The evidence is, in the main, so not exclusively, but mainly, these people who are most at risk of death. The rest of us have an extremely high chance of surviving infection, well over 99 in 100. I will take those odds, thank you. Why are there so many conflicting announcements about the incubation time during the symptom free infectious period? If still uncertain, why not play it safe and go for the longest period? This currently assumed two week span seems very optimistic if generalized. Because there is no reliable data. Why have the Chinese doctors that first warned of the pandemic received a posthumous apology while those still alive are still held in jail? Because the Chinese government is an extremely nasty, vicious regime dedicated to only one thing. It’s survival. Isn’t that self evident? Apparently we are still at the early stage. What does that mean and what can we expect according to the scientists who work with such models? That we don't hear much doesn't bode well. It will play out. It will end. As has every other pandemic in history. People will die. People die all the time. It’s life. Why worry so much? Just enjoy what we have why we have it. How is this going to play out in the 3rd world countries with zero hygiene and ten doctors to every one million patients? It will likely be dreadful. I would heartily recommend that you volunteer as a health or aid worker to help these poor people. Is it believable that colored people are more prone to be infected because the color of their skin prevents sufficient production of vitamin D, or could it be that that the health system in black communities is inadequate? More comedy? I have seen some reports coming out of America about ethnic minority people being affected badly compared to white people. It is an interesting picture, which I put down to poverty and social deprivation, but there is not sufficient data to make a final opinion, I believe.

Lewian wrote: . lazland has written some nonsense comparing Covid-19 to flu, this is not a credible way to justify to go on as before. However, a more realistic line of argument is that we're screwed either way, and if this is so, we could well choose to be screwed with open pubs and restaurants. (I hope not, but...)

dr wu23 wrote: Why would one virus be more 'contagious' than another.? Aren't  all upper respiratory viruses spread in a similar fashion..? I can understand it might be a more virulent strain . Just curious but during 'regular' flu season are hospitals equally overwhelmed since allegedly more die from the reg flu? I would think they would always be full during flu season? btw,  some stats...and I'm not making any case for anything...just thought they were interesting. US stats... -CDC 29,000-59,000 deaths from flu related illnesses each season so far 16,500 deaths from covid 19. -Last year almost 40,000 deaths from car accidents. -647,000 from heart disease each year -606,520 from cancer

The key word here being so far. Deaths have skyrocketed just since March. That's with considerable restrictions on normal activity leading to great depression levels of unemployment. And it isn't even over yet. It's going to climb and climb for some more time. Louisiana and Florida have all but assured it's not going to start declining any time soon. Now imagine what the number of deaths would be without these restrictions. The fatal flaw in the argument that covid only has the mortality of influenza is these figures that we see are AFTER most of the world has accepted a severe disruption and the consequences thereof to contain the virus. Without containment, yes, the number of deaths would indeed approach projections characterised as 'crazy' in this thread. It is a mistake to take a mortality rate that has been successfully curtailed by these measures and compare that to that of influenza and then turn around and say the restrictions are unnecessary and purely a product of media alarm.

Edited by Lewian - April 10 2020 at 04:22

Let me just pop in to say that I'm glad to be on a forum where this much useful information is shared and discussed so politely, it's honestly refreshing amidst the chaos! I'm guessing the lockdown as it is done now in most places is the best we can do at this point, though hopefully time will reveal better ways out than 2 years of being locked inside while half the risk group dies out anyways...