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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 21:48
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Sweden's experiment not going great. 

<span style="font-family: Times; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap; : rgb21, 32, 43;">https://twitter.com/mickimoj/status/1247200071436902400?s=20</span>



Sweden's response has indeed been the most puzzling one for me.  Didn't take them for the sort who would experiment with Darwinism.  The data is most definitely not encouraging though, again, those who look at figures up to a point of time rather than gauging the trend will pat themselves on their back for some more time.  

Sweden's cases per million rate is low compared to US or the worst hit European countries of Spain, France and Italy but it's also much higher than Canada and Australia and only a whit short of UK.  Considering the pandemic is in a more advanced stage in the UK than Sweden, it's going to get much worse for Sweden from here before it gets better. 

Singapore had earlier experimented with keeping things running with extensive testing and employing Korea-like contact tracing.  But, like Sweden, they allowed normal activities in the pre-covid sense to carry on, including keeping discotheques open.  They were forced to impose a lockdown earlier this week due to an alarming spike in number of cases.  This is likely where Sweden will have to head to.  The worry is they may have left it for too late, the way Italy and Spain did. 
I wonder how many people in Sweden are practicing social distance even though the government isn't enforcing it. Something to consider while looking at their statistics. Another factor to consider would be Sweden's population density compared to other nations.

Edited by Easy Money - April 07 2020 at 21:49
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 03:57
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Sweden's experiment not going great. 

You don't have to be a genius to know that this would fail.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 04:44
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Sweden's experiment not going great. 

You don't have to be a genius to know that this would fail.

Well, if you were a stable genius like a certain someone someone something, you probably wouldn't. LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 04:49
So true! LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 07:34
Brings up another point though, which is covered in this article. 


I quote, "On January 27, Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s center for disease control, told the broadcaster ZDF in an interview that he saw “low danger” from the coronavirus. “We expect that single cases in different countries can occur,” Wieler said. “The chance for those single cases to then spread is at this point limited.”

So...if the overconfidence of someone who really doesn't know well enough, like Trump, is bad enough, what do we make of the overconfidence of experts?  This isn't the first time either.  In entirely different fields, I remember the experts going wrong at important times, be it Scooter Libby or Hank Paulson or James Comey.  

We come back then to Sweden.  With cases mounting rapidly now, covid is very likely to overwhelm their healthcare system, as it has in the worst hit countries like Italy or Spain and as it well may in the US.  

Why would Sweden take such a big risk and not learn from the experience of countries that got it right as well as those that got it wrong, is the question. I can understand the idea behind thinking a full lockdown is not necessary but there is surely no substitute to social distancing.  Keeping pubs and discotheques open makes that difficult to achieve, especially in societies that are used to a great deal of freedom.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 13:00
I don't believe that, at least since about the middle of February, it's been a case of politicians or (real) medical experts and researchers getting it right or wrong, because history and the underlying science has been both clear and public for years if not decades now. Experts who now 'got it wrong' must have done so intentionally for reasons unknown but surely suspected. And that includes the WHO. Trump does seem to have a point here

The results of the individual governments have been based on a clear binary choice: either human life or economy.

It's a shame that the perpetrators of what I personally see as mass manslaughter will never have to face any real personal consequences.


Edited by npjnpj - April 08 2020 at 13:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 15:52
^ Collateral damage.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 17:02
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

I don't believe that, at least since about the middle of February, it's been a case of politicians or (real) medical experts and researchers getting it right or wrong, because history and the underlying science has been both clear and public for years if not decades now. Experts who now 'got it wrong' must have done so intentionally for reasons unknown but surely suspected. And that includes the WHO. Trump does seem to have a point here



good God man..  what a load of horsesh*t..LOL

far from having sinister motives.. look no further than what I posted upstream in the thread.  That 6' rule.. dates from the f**king 1930's scientific understandings..  which MIT blew apparently blew a hole in.. but how much has one heard of that. 27 feet?  Yeah..  much good that will do now..

the simple fact is.. and I think many doctors would freely admit it in the best of times.. but isn't what people want or need to hear now.

they simply don't know...  hell man.. probably the best and brightest in the field aren't on CNN.. nor Atlanta.. or God forbid DC.. the best experts are locked away in some Nevada or Siberian bunker finding better and more efficient ways of upping the 99.7 fatality rate of our nastiest weaponized viral concoctions hahah..
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2020 at 17:17
^ Very true Micky, and they don't always tell you what you are working on. My dad felt guilty for the rest of his life because he unknowingly helped develop faster and better nukes.
Also, a good friend of mine dropped out of advanced electrical engineering when he realized what his skills would be used for. He went into stereo repair instead.
Help the victims of the russian invasion:
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 03:00
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Sweden's experiment not going great. 

You don't have to be a genius to know that this would fail.

It;s very easy to dismiss that, but we shouldn't forget it's a hard choice to make for everyone in power. Not only is there big uncertainty among the experts as well, also it is true that everyone is paying a high price for the lockdown. And it's not just lives vs. economy. People kill themselves because they lose their jobs, mental illnesses go rampant, women are locked in their homes with their violent husbands, lack of exercise will cause health problems down the line for many. Some may even starve, in places that are not as economically secure as where most of us sit. What we are currently doing is at the same time something of a necessity and very well justified, and also scary and a thing to avoid at almost all cost. There's a guy, a philosopher I think, on Italian TV, who for weeks says that we as a country can't bear this anymore, and far more people will die as a consequence of this.

Now I'm not sure about this and for obvious reasons I support the lockdown, however we should pay some respect to the other side of things. Sweden has internationally reputed epidemiologists as well, and they advised the government against lockdown. That may change fairly soon, but there are in any case lots of uncertainties connected to whatever you do. In Sweden people generally seem to be keener to follow government recommentations than in Italy or the US, for example, so I can see why they hoped that people would do enough in their own responsibility. On the other hand, of course, it is wrong to say "no lockdown = economy will be fine" because of course it won't if at the same time the health system is overwhelmed and 70% stay at home anyway because they're scared. lazland has written some nonsense comparing Covid-19 to flu, this is not a credible way to justify to go on as before. However, a more realistic line of argument is that we're screwed either way, and if this is so, we could well choose to be screwed with open pubs and restaurants. (I hope not, but...)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 03:20
^^^

The problem Sweden is likely to face is not just people getting sick and falling out of the workforce but of them overwhelming the healthcare system. Wiki tells me Sweden has 5.8 critical care beds per 100000 people. Which works out to 580 for a population of 10 million. As of today, they already have 680 or so critical cases of covid. I am sure they were already working on augmenting their critical care capacity but if the number of critical cases ramp up rapidly, it will strain their hospitals. This is what persuaded UK to move away from its previous bet on herd immunity. NOT media scare mongering, but an overwhelming of the healthcare system. Which would hand in hand deny care to other critical care patients and cause deaths anyway.

In general, business leaders need to work with govts and identify ways to keep the economy going in a situation where people are forced indoors. Adapt to the new normal, don't keep waiting for a return to the old normal.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 04:37
Police broke up over 600 parties in the Greater Manchester area last weekend, some had DJs and bouncy castles (and therefore presumably children). I mean, what is wrong with these people?
 
This weekend is going to be worse with the Bank Holidays and the sun. Madness.
 
 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 06:37
Originally posted by chopper chopper wrote:

Police broke up over 600 parties in the Greater Manchester area last weekend, some had DJs and bouncy castles (and therefore presumably children). I mean, what is wrong with these people?
 
This weekend is going to be worse with the Bank Holidays and the sun. Madness.
 
 

This, unfortunately, is why authoritarianism works best in such a pandemic.  Provided of course the authoritarianism is guided by science.  Here, restaurants, pubs, cinema halls, etc are simply shut by govt order.  Do not offer the option of going there to people.  For they will.  Temptation is the human race's greatest weakness.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 06:46
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Sweden's experiment not going great. 

You don't have to be a genius to know that this would fail.

It;s very easy to dismiss that, but we shouldn't forget it's a hard choice to make for everyone in power. Not only is there big uncertainty among the experts as well, also it is true that everyone is paying a high price for the lockdown. And it's not just lives vs. economy. People kill themselves because they lose their jobs, mental illnesses go rampant, women are locked in their homes with their violent husbands, lack of exercise will cause health problems down the line for many. Some may even starve, in places that are not as economically secure as where most of us sit. What we are currently doing is at the same time something of a necessity and very well justified, and also scary and a thing to avoid at almost all cost. There's a guy, a philosopher I think, on Italian TV, who for weeks says that we as a country can't bear this anymore, and far more people will die as a consequence of this.

Now I'm not sure about this and for obvious reasons I support the lockdown, however we should pay some respect to the other side of things. Sweden has internationally reputed epidemiologists as well, and they advised the government against lockdown. That may change fairly soon, but there are in any case lots of uncertainties connected to whatever you do. In Sweden people generally seem to be keener to follow government recommentations than in Italy or the US, for example, so I can see why they hoped that people would do enough in their own responsibility. On the other hand, of course, it is wrong to say "no lockdown = economy will be fine" because of course it won't if at the same time the health system is overwhelmed and 70% stay at home anyway because they're scared. lazland has written some nonsense comparing Covid-19 to flu, this is not a credible way to justify to go on as before. However, a more realistic line of argument is that we're screwed either way, and if this is so, we could well choose to be screwed with open pubs and restaurants. (I hope not, but...)

I criticize it because (1) the outcome is incredibly obvious. Without top down directives the idea of the populace following the SD procedures is ridiculously (early in outbreak)  precisely because of the huge social / economic reasons you mentioned. And (2) because if there is any point at all to having leaders it is to make these tough decisions. Our situation in the US is a bit different, but leaders have no trouble making the tough decisions of bombing a site which may be a school or hospital for chance at killing a middle management ISIS operative. I feel no empathy for people who willingly take on massive responsibility and then fail to take the basic means to meet that responsibility. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 06:48
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

I don't believe that, at least since about the middle of February, it's been a case of politicians or (real) medical experts and researchers getting it right or wrong, because history and the underlying science has been both clear and public for years if not decades now. Experts who now 'got it wrong' must have done so intentionally for reasons unknown but surely suspected. And that includes the WHO. Trump does seem to have a point here

The results of the individual governments have been based on a clear binary choice: either human life or economy.

It's a shame that the perpetrators of what I personally see as mass manslaughter will never have to face any real personal consequences.

Don't assume malice when incompetence will do. Most experts are parrots themselves. Doctors are mostly plumbers that society respects. 

WHO definitely willing lied under pressure from CCP though. The WHO is worse than incompetent. Trump is absolutely right to freeze funding. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 07:30
More weird news about Covid-19:

Some doctors are now saying that noninvasive breathing devices are having more positive effects then ventilators and ventilators may be causing more harm and worse outcomes for patients. 

A couple of interesting quotes:
"What's driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they're not gasping for air, their hearts aren't racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of oxygen."

"The patients in front of me are unlike any I've ever seen," Kyle-Sidell told Medscape about those he cared for in a hard-hit Brooklyn hospital. "They looked a lot more like they had altitude sickness than pneumonia."


And in China, scientists are finding that some younger people that have recovered have such low antibody counts, that it's not enough to protect them from possibly being reinfected:

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 07:40
Are you sure these reports are not from Fox or OAN? Anything to help ol' Donald, you know.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 08:06
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

the simple fact is.. and I think many doctors would freely admit it in the best of times.. but isn't what people want or need to hear now.

they simply don't know...  hell man.. probably the best and brightest in the field aren't on CNN.. nor Atlanta.. or God forbid DC.. the best experts are locked away in some Nevada or Siberian bunker finding better and more efficient ways of upping the 99.7 fatality rate of our nastiest weaponized viral concoctions hahah..

Speaking of, an excellent article which gets to the heart of why this has been such a clusterf**k.  

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 08:07
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

I feel no empathy for people who willingly take on massive responsibility and then fail to take the basic means to meet that responsibility. 

This, exactly.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2020 at 08:14
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

More weird news about Covid-19:

Some doctors are now saying that noninvasive breathing devices are having more positive effects then ventilators and ventilators may be causing more harm and worse outcomes for patients. 

A couple of interesting quotes:
"What's driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they're not gasping for air, their hearts aren't racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of oxygen."

"The patients in front of me are unlike any I've ever seen," Kyle-Sidell told Medscape about those he cared for in a hard-hit Brooklyn hospital. "They looked a lot more like they had altitude sickness than pneumonia."


And in China, scientists are finding that some younger people that have recovered have such low antibody counts, that it's not enough to protect them from possibly being reinfected:


There were some off records reports of the altitude sickness connection in the last two weeks. Its really interesting how our understanding of the virus is changing rapidly and how hopefully that will lead us to focusing on more effective treatments and reducing mortality. 

Kinda ditto for the second one though we've had 'good' anecdotal evidence of reinfection. However, for some reason establishment types have just wanted to assume immunity after initially infection and shout down anyone suggesting otherwise. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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