Covid-19 and the madness of crowds

Equality 7-2521 wrote: npjnpj wrote: You know that hospital ship that's just docked in New York, the one that makes it look as if the Swiss are invading the USA? The one that's only supposed to treat non-Corona patients? Any bets on how many days it's going to stay Corona free? Over or under 10? I don't ever have faith in the government, but I would hope they take proper testing procedures to really minimize the exposure.

Today on Twitter, in my timeline, I've noticed that the overwhelming frequency of COVID-19 related news and contents somewhat lessened. Glad for that.

I also got bored of sitting at home. I wish, likewise, the virus would be gone soon... I've always liked spending time at home, but this is a bit too much.

BaldFriede wrote: Atavachron wrote: Normal influenza is far more deadly, and no numbers have shown any different.   People are losing their livelihoods because of this.   The fear is worse than the disease. That's simply not true. To quote from an article comparing the two: The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This means COVID-19 is lethal in 4.53% of the cases. Influenza is lethal in 0.06% of the cases. This means COVID-19 is 75.5 times as lethal as influenza. Here a link to the full article: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Okay, then. Time for a numbers game, with apologies for the macabre nature, but given that everybody is throwing numbers about, let’s try to make some sense.

BaldFriede wrote: lazland wrote: Okay, then. Time for a numbers game, with apologies for the macabre nature, but given that everybody is throwing numbers about, let’s try to make some sense. The infection rate per person is quoted on various sources as being 2.6 infections per person infected. So, let us imagine Mr Wang Ker. Wang travelled from China to the UK on 1 March. When he left the mother country, all Wang had was his perennial aching wrist. However, poor old Wang had the virus, and started developing a cough on the flight, which he put down to the rarified air. 200 people were on the plane, but by some miracle Wang only infected 19 of them. All of them were travelling to London to stay for a while, work & etc. Wang was meeting Master Bates, a trader in The City of London on arrival for business. Wang, unfortunately, gives Bates the lurg.  So, now we have 20 people infected. Not an unrealistic number, you will agree. In the first 14 days, those 20 people infected 2.6 people each, either on the Tube, trains, pubs, restaurants, offices, rumpy pumpy and etc. For the first 14 days of March, in London and the rest of the country, we were told to merely wash hands, with no testing, social distancing, or anything. Question. At an infection rate of 2.6, how many people really had the virus after 14 days? On day 15, our glorious leader asked us all to practice social distancing, and stay away from large gatherings, the pub and etc. However, for the following three days, 10% decided not to take a blind bit of notice, because it was only a bit of flu, they felt fine, or their employers insisted upon them going to work, because there was no lockdown. After day 18, at the same infection rate, how many people had the virus? On day 19, with still no testing to speak of, government insisted upon lockdown, but said that those people who could not work from home should still travel. Let us assume 5% of the infected people, all of whom had no symptoms at all, so, again, not outlandish, carried on as normal, perfectly feasible if you look at the rammed tube trains in London. 13 days later, how many people have been infected? Based upon your answer, look up the number of deaths, and calculate the true mortality rate. Maths professors more than welcome to play the game. Answers on a postcard to Lazland. Please do feel free to enter into an argument as to why this proposition is nonsense, and I will feel equally free to counter. I think David is right. I do not think that Covid is significantly more dangerous in terms of mortality rate than flu. I also agree with Steve G that proper testing facilities and isolation of infected and vulnerable people would have been very necessary. It most certainly would have prevented the requirement to shut down virtually an entire economy, with all of the outcomes I have outlined before. And now do the same kind of math for the flu.

BaldFriede wrote: And what exactly is that supposed to mean?

Edited by Equality 7-2521 - April 01 2020 at 18:08

I have never heard anyone who works in health and medicine related fields say this is no big deal. They are all unanimous in their concern.
A nurse I know tells me that Memphis hospitals are working overtime to expand their facilities for the coming disaster.

The only people I hear trying to downplay this are political types such Rush Limbaugh or the Lt Gov in Texas.
I'm not real fond of the current TN governor, but he is a former doctor and he gets what is happening and is taking it seriously.

The Dark Elf wrote: Easy Money wrote: I have never heard anyone who works in health and medicine related fields say this is no big deal. They are all unanimous in their concern. A nurse I know tells me that Memphis hospitals are working overtime to expand their facilities for the coming disaster. The only people I hear trying to downplay this are political types such Rush Limbaugh or the Lt Gov in Texas. I'm not real fond of the current TN governor, but he is a former doctor and he gets what is happening and is taking it seriously. It's a massive conspiracy in the hospital industry so nurses can earn unlimited overtime....and not have to go home and washes dishes or do laundry.

Sounds like you have beat Rush to reveal the 'fema-nazi' plot behind this whole fiasco.

Edited by Lewian - April 02 2020 at 10:55