Covid-19 and the madness of crowds - Progressive Rock Music Forum

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SteveG

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 06:16

Chaser wrote:

Another one to look at in regard to "herd immunity" is Belarus, where the president has ordered everything to carry on as normal, and people just need to drink more vodka to combat the effects of the virus.

Having been sick for a week and a half now with Coronavirus after returning from Spain, I can honestly say that this is no joke and needs to be taken very seriously.

I have had pneumonia like symptoms and breathing difficulties and, whilst I am now on the mend, I can still feel the virus on my chest and it's not very pleasant at all!

OMG! I'm so glad that you're recovering! As an old timer, I can't imagine what it would be like to endure such symptoms. All the best to you.

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rogerthat

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 06:20

Mascodagama wrote:

rogerthat wrote:

Well, maybe at least one country should have experimented with herd immunity so it would be clear exactly how disastrous that would have been.

Keep an eye on Sweden.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/catastrophe-sweden-coronavirus-stoicism-lockdown-europe

Thanks for the heads up! Didn't figure Sweden as one of those countries that would experiment with this, but here we are. In three weeks time, we will know if this worked, but the number I see on the worldometer is not a good one, given Sweden's low population.

rogerthat

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 06:26

Take care. Glad to know you have recovered.

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 10:00

Atavachron wrote:

^ Still way lower than seasonal flu-- approaching 21,000 deaths worldwide for covid; 23,000 deaths from common flu this season just in the US.

The US is going to see >100k deaths despite drastic social distancing measures.

10k people died in 3 weeks in Italy.

Comparing this to the seasonal flu is asinine and has already resulted in mass death.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

Chaser

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 11:01

SteveG wrote:

OMG! I'm so glad that you're recovering! As an old timer, I can't imagine what it would be like to endure such symptoms. All the best to you.

Thanks Steve - appreciate your good wishes. I should be okay, but even so, I'm 48, but I play football twice a week, cricket once a week,gym every week, I've got good lung function, no health issues, and I don't smoke, but this thing still hit me like a freight train.

It left me feeling like I'd been put through the mincer, and my lungs felt like they'd been shredded.

I feel incredibly sorry for elderly people or those with pre-existing health conditions. They are really going to struggle with this.

Songs cast a light on you

npjnpj

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 11:27

Won't be long now until Trump will be accusing doctors and nurses of treason.

King of Loss View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 11:32

Chaser wrote:

SteveG wrote:

OMG! I'm so glad that you're recovering! As an old timer, I can't imagine what it would be like to endure such symptoms. All the best to you.

Ouch... I don't want to get it either.

lazland

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 12:24

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Atavachron wrote:

^ Still way lower than seasonal flu-- approaching 21,000 deaths worldwide for covid; 23,000 deaths from common flu this season just in the US.

The US is going to see >100k deaths despite drastic social distancing measures.

10k people died in 3 weeks in Italy.

Comparing this to the seasonal flu is asinine and has already resulted in mass death.

It is not asinine, but could be described as simplistic.

The key, IMO, is the mortality rate of the two. Health authorities have a good handle on the mortality rate of seasonal flu. Taking into consideration the herd immunity via vaccination, it is about 0.2%, and this seems to be acceptable to societies worldwide.

Any deaths from Covid-19 will, of course, be in addition to that, so the first point I make is that this is clearly not a good thing. That goes without saying.

However, the real point is we simply do not know what the mortality rate is from this new virus. That is because your country’s health system, mine, and, indeed across the Western world, do not have adequate testing infrastructure. Ours is pitiful. Germany is probably the better example in Europe.

What if, and it is an if, the mortality rate, the true rate, is something at or about that of seasonal flu? Would we shut down an entire country and economy for that? I think we know the answer, and it is in the negative.

Also, the measures taken. My understanding is that China shut down Hubei Province, but much of the remainder of the country carried on pretty much as normal, excepting travel to the affected area. Although I wouldn’t trust any of the numbers coming out of China, this does appear to have been effective. I will, of course, be happy to be corrected in my understanding. Therefore, why not do the same in, for example, London or New York, and attempt to contain a spread to the remainder of the relatively unaffected remainder of the country, such as where I live. Also, why the bloody hell are there flights still coming into London from affected areas across the world? Utter madness.

Singapore have tested relentlessly, and isolated those affected, with, as per China, strict contact tracing.

It would make sense here and America to impose a lockdown on the vulnerable. I think that Sweden’s approach is interesting, and we will see how it pans out. I take the Belarus approach to drink more vodka to be beyond parody.

This all comes down to health infrastructure. We have allowed this to fall away, as with much other essential services, in the past four decades. We are now paying a price for this.

Another point on deaths. They are tragic. However, there will be a tremendous price to pay for all of this. A depression, for a start. How many lives will that cost? Are these acceptable as a price worth paying to “defeat” the virus? I don’t think so.

In Scotland, all cancer screening has been cancelled this week. Appalling. How many people will die from that? Are those deaths acceptable? I don’t think so.

The tv screens, and radio stations, have had survivors screaming at us describing the god awful symptoms they went through. Dreadful, I am sure, and I empathise with Chopper a great deal for his journey. However, they are rarities. The vast majority of people getting this virus demonstrate mild, or no symptoms. How many people do you see on the tv saying that it was no more than a heavy cold, really? A piece of piss? Answer - none. Again, my point here is that there is little or no perspective or proportion in all of this, and the ramifications of total lockdown have been ill thought through, because the price will be shocking. So, by the way, will be the political fallout over the sh*te medical services and if it turns out that the true mortality rate, undetected owing to lack of testing and common sense, turns out to be little more, or equal to, seasonal flu.

In that regard, David is spot on in his observation.

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 14:21

^ We know to a good degree of certainty that the CFR is >= 10x that of the flu and the R0 >= 2x that of the flu. Those are catastrophic numbers if unchecked. Of course the data is noisy because no death is monocausal and classification standards differ but that is noise which can be picked through. It's asinine, not simplistic. They are fundamentally different things.

China had the advantage of having an epicenter upon which they could act with absolutely draconian lockdown procedures. The US and other countries do not have that because by the time of their reactions there have been diverse community spread. There was hope initially in the US that it could be contained in Seattle, but there were already independent enclaves elsewhere.

Sweeden doesn't have much of a different approach. They are banking on their populace socially distancing without formal actions from the government. It's fundamentally the same idea. It's probably not going to work.

You are putting the cart before the horse. The economy will shut down anyway if the virus is left unchecked as it begins to ravage our supply lines. Cancer patients won't be able to get treatment anyway because the hospitals will be pushed passed capacity. That is happening anyway even with preventative measures. How could you possibly think that is a point in favor of a more lax response?

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

lazland

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 15:06

Equality 7-2521 wrote:

^ We know to a good degree of certainty that the CFR is >= 10x that of the flu and the R0 >= 2x that of the flu. Those are catastrophic numbers if unchecked. Of course the data is noisy because no death is monocausal and classification standards differ but that is noise which can be picked through. It's asinine, not simplistic. They are fundamentally different things.

Apologies for the colour. I am not shouting at you, but simply distinguishing between comments.

My English is extremely good. I am fully aware that asinine and simplistic are fundamentally different.

We do not know to any degree of certainty the ratios you quote. That is because we do not know the precise numbers of people infected. I would have thought that somewhat self evident. The numbers being quoted by our governments are based upon mathematical models, and, as with all such models, if the data used is rubbish, so are the outputs.

You are right about causal impact. We do not know how many of these people would have died in a short period of time owing to their underlying health conditions.

Conclusion. The Covid-19 virus causes people to die. It is not a pleasant thing at all. However, the data upon which extreme societal changes, economic catastrophe potentially, the severe curb on civil liberties, and the breakdown of fairly fundamental health provision elsewhere is based wholly upon guesswork and supposition.

As I have said before, the scientific opinion is not unanimous. Actually, it never is. Half of them can’t agree on whether it is a good thing to get up in the morning.

Yes, the Chinese response was draconian. Yes, there was an epicentre. The reason why the US, UK, and others have some of these issues is because they dragged their feet. Until a very short time ago, the only advice was to wash our bloody hands. Trumpalot was in utter denial. I have said this before, and say it again. If the virus is a pandemic to fear and has the potential to wipe out a significant section of the population, that would have been pretty clear to any right minded person as long ago as Mid-January. Certainly, that situation does not change scientifically in a matter of short weeks.

The reason why a lot of our countries are going into meltdown is because they do not have the health infrastructure to cope with larger than normal hospital admissions. They also blatantly ignored their own experts over a number of years to prepare for potential pandemics. We still don’t sufficient protective equipment in this country for frontline health and care workers, and I can’t imagine it is any better with you.

An old English saying. What comes around, goes around.

I also repeat my opinion, which I accept many do not agree with. The panic, fear, and loathing generated by traditional and new media has been a disgrace. The politicians have followed that. Anxiety and self loathing abound. No good will come of it.

It may not work in the short term. What it will do, though, is provide for a herd immunity which will help in the expected second wave, which will arrive well before a vaccine. As it is, our countries will have little choice but to repeat the lockdown because we were so “successful” in stopping the virus.

The quotation marks are deliberate. I actually think that a high proportion of the population have already had the thing, and I believe that opinion will be vindicated after a matter of time and the inevitable enquiries.

Sweden does have a different approach in that it is deliberately keeping as much of society going as it can, and encouraging self isolation amongst the infected and vulnerable, whilst everyone else carries on, not as normal, but as near to it without crashing the economy or society.

No, the economy would not shut down. It would certainly slow down, but not collapse completely.

Your point re cancer patients merely confirms my argument about capacity. I am sorry., but the denial of treatment to cancer, and other acute patients, is as heartless a decision as letting the virus spread unchecked, which, by the way, I have never argued for. I regard the denial of such treatment to be a disgrace, and a death sentence for extremely vulnerable people. Utterly unjustifiable. I also repeat the fact that the link between poverty, economic, and social deprivation and premature death is so well known as to not bear repeating here.

My point? Nobody has taken into consideration the many people who will die as a result of the measures being taken.

Is the cure going to be worse than the disease? Who knows. It will, though, lead to some horrendous problems, and years to come of austerity and pain. I regard that as a horror show, and I am ashamed of it as a decent, honest, law abiding citizen, not to mention fearful of the impact upon my teenage son, who is facing being kicked out of university because it will go financially tits up.

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!

Chaser

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 15:24

^ Excellent post and absolutely spot on!

People who say that this is "just flu" or "like flu" have no understanding of this virus.

This is much more infectious than flu, and much more deadly.

People need to look at the Italian experience.

What happened in Italy was that the healthcare system was overwhelmed, resulting in death rates that were hitting 8%. No civilized society could simply accept those sort of death rates.

Covid 19 patients require weeks of intensive care on a ventilator, and they turn up in large numbers, meaning hospitals rapidly run out of intensive care capacity.

That results in patients, who might otherwise have lived, dying of respiratory failure in hospital corridors.

With their healthcare system in a state of collapse, up to 25% of the workforce off sick, and large numbers of their fellow citizens dying on a daily basis, I think it is utterly inconceivable that citizens will merrily carry on their economic business as though nothing is happening.

The economic damage would have happened anyway, its just that under the "do nothing" strategy there would have been economic catastrophe plus a mountain of bodybags.

Songs cast a light on you

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 16:46

lazland wrote:

Apologies for the colour. I am not shouting at you, but simply distinguishing between comments.

My English is extremely good. I am fully aware that asinine and simplistic are fundamentally different.

You are right about causal impact. We do not know how many of these people would have died in a short period of time owing to their underlying health conditions.

As I have said before, the scientific opinion is not unanimous. Actually, it never is. Half of them can’t agree on whether it is a good thing to get up in the morning.

Yes, we do. We have good ways of estimating these things. The jump from uncertainty exist to we can't say anything is sophomoric.

lazland wrote:

No, the economy would not shut down. It would certainly slow down, but not collapse completely.

My point is that the economy is going to slow as it has whether we do it by choice or it occurs from consequences of mass infection.

lazland wrote:

My point? Nobody has taken into consideration the many people who will die as a result of the measures being taken.

Yes, people have. You seem to be ignoring that when hospitals run out of bed from treating COVID patients and when the disease inevitably begins to infect large portion of our medical labor force, that these deaths are going to be exacerbated. That's the entire reasoning behind flattening the curve.

lazland wrote:

Of course it sucks. I teach at a university and I feel for my students. But that's the situation we find ourselves in and there's no getting around it. Honestly, we are lucky that this is relatively mildly compared to the range of epidemic we can expect and which we will undoubtedly see in the future. Hopefully, this is a wake up call to the world to prepare us for the next one. However, I fear that the reaction will be much to do about nothing or feelings that the cure was worse than the disease.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 16:55

Trump took a very different tone with today's presser. Good to see it. The most effective one he's given so far by a long shot.

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

npjnpj

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:14

Just out of interest: what exactly do you teach at university?

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:16

Math / Statistics

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

npjnpj

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:21

Why do people keep saying that the normal flu is worse than this?

I can't remember the hospitals worldwide screaming for help, getting retired health professionals back to work, and bodies being dumped into refrigerated storage trucks with the flu.

Perhaps I was distracted at the time?

Atavachron View Drop Down

Special Collaborator

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:26

Is a normal flu death less tragic?

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy

npjnpj

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:26

I just saw the Trump show today. All I see is a bullsh*t artist. Honestly, it's not even fun to make fun of him any more, it's too much like mocking the disabled.

Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:27

npjnpj wrote:

Why do people keep saying that the normal flu is worse than this?

I can't remember the hospitals worldwide screaming for help, getting retired health professionals back to work, and bodies being dumped into refrigerated storage trucks with the flu.

Perhaps I was distracted at the time?

Because they are just looking at raw death numbers and have a poor understanding of exponential growth and fat tailed distributions. Because they are scared and don't want to face the reality whether that be the economic consequences or the mass graves and people collapsing in the street. Obviously IMO.

Also, people's beliefs are based in no small part upon establishing and maintaining a group identity rather than on the basis of evidence. There are certain identities: small government, anti-vax, Trump4Life, globalism, etc. that can clash with the consequences of a true pandemic.

Edited by Equality 7-2521 - March 31 2020 at 17:27

"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "

npjnpj

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Posted: March 31 2020 at 17:27

@ Atavachron: I don't know. Is it?