The American Politics Thread

hard to see him doing so.. was hard to even before tonight but he had a path.  However I think the whole dynamic moving forward changed tonight.  To be honest .. I think Kamala knew what had to happen and now.. not 6 months from now...and had to make her play. It was a risky one.. but it paid off.. big time apparantly.  Risky that if Biden had been prepared for this she could have come off very badly with that  (I mean.. how could he not be..  it was like deja vu with Clinton. He was running a general election against Trump.. above the fray and ride out the clock as the front runner and obviously didn't consider that some might be gunning for him)

Anyhow.. prior to tonight. Biden had a path.

There was a  3 top tier going into the debates. Warren, Sanders and Biden

as long as Warren and Sanders divided the progressive vote and Biden soaked up all the oxygen of the centrists and moderates. He would have likely won the nomination.. and god help him if it had been Trump.. not merely the very polite Harris makinig him look old and unprepared.  

However now things really get interesting...   I think it is a no brainer to assume that Harris is going to get a large polling bump.. at Biden's expense  into the top tier where he comes back down to the rest and Harris moves up. Which makes for a facinating game moving forward.

Harris and Biden aren't done yet.. for the moderate centrist vote  but there is still Warren v. Sanders for the progressive.  The race will likely be and perhaps what decides the nomination.. who if any gets knocked out and who doesn't. I think it is much more likely Harris can knock out Biden than Warren knocking out Sanders who always has been a oddball and do it is way and even though Sanders and Warren get along well. I don't see him gracefully stepping aside if Warren surpasses him in the battle for the progressive voter. Bernie may not have a large ceiling..  but he does have some very loyal support.

After tonight..  Vegas is looking hard at putting Harris in the number betting slot of nominee favorite. Mainly for I think it is very plausible the progressive vote is split between Warren and Bernie. That really was a game changing performance by Kamala tonight. Changed the whole dynamics of the race at a rather unheard of early stage.

overall winner - easily Kamala Harris

overall loser - easily Joe Biden

surprise riser - Julian Castro.  Took himself from the bottome and put himself into the conservation.  Won't win obviously but unlike most on those stages who will rapidly start falling out. He will be in a longer run and get his name and message out there.

surprise faller - Bernie Sanders.  Best line I've seen so far. 'Why would one vote for Bernie Sanders in 2020 when Elizabeth Warren exists.  While I think Bernie had the singular best closing statement and one that cuts to the heart of what is going on. The recognition that is not merely enough to beat Trump, or even push reset to fall 2016 and clean up his messes.. the problem is.. there are some major problems that in fact did give rise to Trump that need to be addressed and the only way to do them. Is not hitting reset back to 2008 .. or beating one's head against the wall trying to compromise with obstuctionist Repubiicans.. it is using the full power of the Presidency.. both in its traditional vein. and now those ushered in by Trump himself and bypassing Congress.. to herald fundemental change econonically in this country.  Really only Warren and Sanders understand that.. but I think many see that Sanders is simply not the right person and think he didn't come across all that well last night. Not in substance.. but style.. and especially the giant gorilla in the room.  Electibility.. forget the polls 18 months out.. he is probably the only front running Democrat that Trump can beat.  

best quote - Mayor Pete

f**kING A!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

worst quote - again Mayor Pete

'I couldn't get it done'

major bonus points for honesty... but not a good quote for a man running for President  if he can't manage a mid sized city.. good luck with this nation.  Very impressive man btw.  I agree with some commentary I read. If you didn't know him previously, one could be excused for not thinking he was a front runner, or some Senator or Governor.   Again, he is young and someone to watch. Handling himself and presented himself extremely .. extremely well

I actually think that Sanders has a better chance against Trump than Warren. Warren is far too intellectual for the common man to feel a connection with. Think Adlai Stevenson. I like her and I even met her while interning at HLS, but I think she'll lose to Trump.

sh*t man.. you ain't kidding me.  It was like a f**king soap opera here. You tuned in every day to see who was sleeping with who (hint it was usually me.. both in male incarnation while Raff and I played out publicly in the forum.. or my lesser known female incarnation.. who still has an active account here.. who was such a dick tease and famously left one of the collabs here so hot and bothered he broke down when 'she' decided .. umm..  it was time to disappear ). Then there was the violence.. oh yes... you tuned in to see who got pissed off at some addition and decided to draw knives and make something of it (note all of them are gone).. and those that took the knife and shoved it up their asses (note..  again.. usually was me or when I couldn't be bothered.. my goon squad of the old AR genre team)

yeah.. they were such fun times.  I joke about it but there was a large measure of truth to it in those early days. It wasn't just a soap opera.. it was indeed the wild wild west. Anything went.. and those quickest on the draw ruled it....

as far as your thoughts on Sanders.. perhaps..  as I said. It isn't the message that is the problem..  it is the messenger.  His message is the right one, and a powerful one.  But remember man...  ideas and issues do not win elections. While those that love Bernie do with a passion...  many others even those that agree with the message don't think him a good winning messenger.  And the main point is, he is not the only messenger.  Those weren't my thoughts.. but the thoughts that appear to be settling in among the undecided. Why Sanders.. when we have Warren who appears to be a far more formidable candidate and campaigner.. as well as debater and public speaker.

oh.. and a woman as well

Before the debates we had 3 candidates sitting at the top of the polling.  Biden by a good bit and Sanders and Warren.. with Warren having moved sharply up the polls in the month previous overtaking Sanders in most polls. (note many outlets still use averages which had Sanders well in front of Warren)

the make take from the debates is Biden .. even if he doesn't completely crash and burn.. is likely coming back down to the rest of the pack. I mean .. front runner.. no..  he likely never was for he was obviously very out of touch with where the party was. Much as Bush III early on in 2015.. huge name recognition.. big money...establishment support.... yet completely out of touch with where the party .. ummm .. let's be more precise.... its VOTERS were for they took over the party and said f**k you to the establishment.. and its candidates. A big lession to be learned and not forgotten in 2020. I didn't.. which is why I never really thought Biden was going to survive politically what was coming. It just came sooner than I expected.. and not from who I expected it to come from. Luck of the debate draw I suppose.

so with Biden dropping one can easily assume Kamala Harris makes the jump from 2nd tier to first tier and inserted herself into the front runners. So today we are looking at 4 candidates holding the most support.. 

so what of those 4...   time for a beer and smoke and I'll start laying out what I think of them.. and their chances.  In order of impossiblity of winning...

the site was not merely a good time for me though. it was a bit of life safer. I was working one of the first generation pre PA's prog websites when a certain Peruvian blue fonted wizard stumbled in and we hit off immediately... ie we immediately started arguing and disagreeing about everything other than the color of the blue sky.  I guess I impressed him..  he invited me to join up over here and I lurked for good while, joined (in my female personna) then finally decided to take teh plunge and start working here full time.  Met a lot of great friends and ..  interesting people... I needed it for I was complete mess personally as my marriage was falling apart .. sh*t.. that makes it sound nice. We hated each others f**king guts and had 3 beautiful children right in the middle of it.  I make many jokes about her.. but it is a pain I still carry today and likely will the rest of my life and is perhaps a large part of the flippancy of the length of said life.  It destroyed me in many ways..  only the Angel that is Raff and meeting her here saved me. Even then.. . I have not been easy for her. Many scars...  and that isn't even counting some far deeper scars I got earlier in my life.

anyhow.. good to see you back. I'm sure you've noticed the site in general is boring as f**k.  What it gained in civility and multitudes of f**king Genesis threads.. it lost in energy passion and pure simple fun. 

3. Joe Biden - was in many ways.. to many observers a paper tiger of a front runner.  However he did just have one bad night and he will pay for it. Rather than being able to skim through teh primaries 'above the fray' and not punching down (soon to be infamous its strategy) and acting as the presumtive nominee a year before the general election and 6 months before even the first primary)....  he will have to fight and fight hard to win this nomination.   Can he do it.. sure ..  he is a beloved and well respected by most all democrats. Most though think his time has come and gone.. and is very much out of step with teh party. However to win first he'll have to slay Kamala Harris who obviously will be fighting him hard for the black vote. Then if he dos..  he'll have what was to likely have been the really hard fight..  winning over the progressive vote and defeating ...  

note.. very troubling stories coming out of the Biden camp today.. word is internally that special focus voter groups in key early primary states..  word is they did not react well to Biden at all last night. He is not out.. but he is in big trouble.  He could be out by the next month if he has another debate debacle like that one last night.  Which means the oppo sees that possiblity too..  next months debates should be HIGHLY entertaining 

1. Elizabeth Warren - quietly.. and yet competently dominated her debate and yet was smart enough to stay above the fray and allow what could be one single weakness as a candidate could be... 

sexism and coming across as shrill and unlikeable

being Hillary'd. She is exactly right. Sexism is still a very real concern.  One reason why Harris did take such a chance going after Biden as she did. Good example  Look at what happened to Gillabrand last night..  obviously desperation drove her to it and she did not come off well.  Last night finished her. Joining  Beto in the completely  f**ked in the first debate club. Don't pass go.. collect 200 or bother showing for the next debates.

Anyhow..  other than not having a dick.. pretty much no weakness. She owns policy.. she didn't bend to it.. she is large part helped crate the very policy the party is gravitating to. Unike Bernie has an appeal to moderates and centrists and could be a bridge candidate between the two wings of the party. Note again her position on guns. May not play well with the hard left.. but a killer position to have in a general election for fighting for 'trump voters' She is relative newcomer politically.. no skeletons in her closet. How do you attack her and not set yourself off course from where much of the party has moved.

her only potential weakness.. inexperience..  we saw it with the whole DNA thing. That was minor.. and no one other than FAUX junkies cared but it was a warning sign that her political inexperience could be an issue and perhaps with something not silly or trivial.

If you do put a finger on the distrust do let me know..  I'd like to know so I can look for it myself.