American Politics the 2016 edition |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:19 | |||
This forum is a minority, micky. And a small, dwindling one as the rate of forum participation shows. And it's not only this forum but these sorts of forums that attract less participation. Why? Because no protection from a nasty disagreement from somebody who has a different opinion, you see. Social media is way more comforting. And though I am much younger than you, we share a similar ethos in the sense that we both knew a world before internet and of course well before social media where to have a heated debate was a pleasurable experience and you could always shake hands and stay friends after the event. I am not sure the social media generation really finds that to be such a great idea. From what I see, today's teens don't interact much per se (face to face, I mean)...not out of shyness but out of sheer insolence. They just don't feel the need.
Why did safe spaces happen in college now? Without brushing aside legitimate concerns of racism, bullying nevertheless has been a part of the college experience and a few scraps, hopefully strictly verbal, are par for the course. But a bubble generation cannot cope with the experience of dealing with somebody who has very different views and may perhaps not accord them the exalted status they are used to in their own circles; hence they want to be sheltered from it. And as far as the older generation, there is indoctrination going on in the academic world while the non college educated crowd viz the Rust Belt have started exploring hard right options out of desperation. We really need some inspirational leadership at this critical juncture to keep the world together. Maybe Trump will surprise the hell out of me and for the sake of the world at large, I sincerely hope so. Otherwise there is trouble ahead or big time trouble as The Donald would say.
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:30 | |||
well said...
and yeah... I put myself on Facebook hiatus purposely before the election. As Raff, and my internet met turned real life friends know well, internet Micky and real life Michael are two VERY different creatures in terms of how I express myself. There is a civility and respect in real life than is easy to lose sight of when half drunk and posting on the internet hahahha. Facebook in particular always brought out the worst in me in terms of what I think of the intelligence of the other side so I backed away from it big time |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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TeleStrat
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 27 2014 Location: Norwalk, CA Status: Offline Points: 9319 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:31 | |||
One of the biggest mistakes a lot of people made was trying to see this election cycle the same way they saw previous election cycles. Early on here the point was brought up that you may as well throw the election playbook out the window because this election was not going to be like any that had come before.
People ignored that and continued to try and analyze and project and even read between the lines and they did all of this based on election history and they all got it wrong.
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:33 | |||
that is I think Gary what the pollsters are going to find they got wrong... they model on past trends and voting patterns if I understand what they do correctly.
that will be the #1 takeaway from the election of 2016.. take polls at face value at your own risk. I doubt they'll ever be seen as they were moving forward... just as with money and influence.. so go polls... in the end it is the votes and the voter that counts |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:34 | |||
I think even without alcoholic inducement most of us tend to speak more freely on the internet. Anonymity is empowering. Which is fine as long as it isn't only directed towards hate.
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:40 | |||
hate? hmmm. That is very much an issue at heart with American politics
I had and have no problem being particularly harsh in my comments... what I hate Madan.. is hate Thus my very real problem with the Republican Party.. and those that support it. Trust me.. I made that point in real life.. but it is all in how one expresses that. On the internet.. yeah.. I rail against them..question their intelligence and or sanity hahah real life... it is about my beliefs in a tolerant, diverse and accepting nation as opposed to telling those that think this country should be a white anglo saxon protestant nation that they are bunch of bigots and ractists. real life discussions don't end too well when you do that hahah... |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Gamemako
Forum Senior Member Joined: March 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1184 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:47 | |||
That was a comment on your amusing misspelling of secede. The only thing the South succeeds at is oppressing black people! no, really, don't take that seriously either. clearly, they also failed at that.
Worth noting that FiveThirtyEight hit every one in 2012. They missed all the important ones in 2016 (FL, NC, PA, WI). Nate Silver also called out the polls for potential herding effects just before the election.
When the dust clears and all votes are counted, it appears that Hillary will win the popular vote by around 1.5 points, within the margin of error for most national polls, but Trump has an unexpected lock on the Electoral College. Turns out, state polls matter a lot, and they're often pretty inaccurate.
If there's need for yet another postmortem, here's FiveThirtyEight's. With actual voter data, it seems Trump voters are indeed Old White Uneducated Men and each of these groups will enjoy considerable attrition in the future. Also, the WSJ found data suggesting Trump would overperform where there was an influx of nonwhites into a predominantly white area. That's not to scream "racism!"; I would rather say that most of these angry old white men are just trying to hold onto that dead past they call home. Republicans can hold onto this vote only as long as they attract new voters or further polarize a (literally) dying base. Doing the latter risks a backlash from other groups, so staking out a political race war it may not be a sustainable position. The party must change, and it will change. The question is what it will be when the dust clears. Donald Trump didn't just take a demographic to a hard right, he took the Republican party off its ideological base. He introduced trillions in infrastructure spending that has irked the party leadership. He has been alternately pro-choice, favorable toward single-payer systems, hated the electoral college, and many other crazy moves compared to GOP orthodoxy. I don't think we're necessarily just viewing the polarization of our country, though it may turn out that way if the Republican establishment can pin Trump down. This could be the policy crack that brings the GOP, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century. Edited by Gamemako - November 12 2016 at 09:49 |
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Hail Eris!
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:09 | |||
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:25 | |||
Well, the first of what will be many pivots has occurred.
Trump says he wont repeal Obamacare. Instead "reform" ...This is what will happen. Tweak some things to it, say "there we fixed it!" Such bullsh*t, ACA is more or less what conservatives have advocated since the 90s, pisses me off they are gunna get away with this. The only good news is at least they cant rail against it anymore, and hopefully so many fools who really thought they'd ever repeal it...will abandon the GOP. |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:30 | |||
Obama nothing to do with it. IL has voted blue every time since 1992 and increasingly so. It's one of the most reliably Democratic states. I am also not too sure how many Obama fans are on board with her In 08 we saw a divide in the party, and once in a blue moon I'd hear "Obama people" still take jabs at her even today. I am not sure it 100% healed. Clinton was the old way, Obama was the new. The latter won. Now that her camp was given full reign, and dominance, over the party it's clear the latter still wins. For a variety of reasons, the candidate who represented continuing Obama's progress lost the battle, but he won the war. Sorry, still salty Point being IL is a super blue state, and most liberals don't seem very happy with the Clintons to be honest. I wish Obama could've run for a third term!
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20313 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:30 | |||
Votes of those under 35 (born since 1980)
Edited by Sean Trane - November 12 2016 at 10:47 |
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20313 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:32 | |||
votes by categories (who voted what)
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:33 | |||
indeed.... this could be facinating from a purely intellectual/political junkie standpoint. he did spend as much time fighting his own party as he did HRC. It is his party now.. those fools in Congress are only still in power because of Trump. I'd be surprised if he doesn't remind them of that. I see Obamacare is the first note... will the Supreme Court be next... the thing that can NOT be underestimated about him though.. he is not a politician. Not a professional one... the rules may not apply to him. He may be forced to play nice with Congress.. but it isn't like he was some establishment clown elected FROM them. As I said before... he campaigned on the theme of change.. not merely being a GOP rubberstamp for ll the instanity out of the House. If he want to affecdt change.. he'll have to fight his own party. Those fools in Congress are as much responsible as anyone for the problems he campaigned upon to fix. A great many of my posts regarding the future (and lack of it) of the Republican Party were based on the inability (career suicide) to force evolution on the party. Trump is a potential wildcard... his independence from the party may the best thing that Party could have hoped for in terms of surviving a coming minority-majority America. and lets be honest... America would be far better of if he does bring the GOP to heel... so yeah. I'll say it.. I'm rooting for the guy if he conintues the path he hints at now. He vanquished the corrupt Democratic establishment... is the ideologically corrupt and out of date Republican establishment next? we shall see... but watching very closely Edited by micky - November 12 2016 at 10:35 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 10:39 | |||
Holy sh*t. It may actually happen
Trudeau says he's willing to renegotiate NAFTA with Trump |
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Gamemako
Forum Senior Member Joined: March 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1184 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 11:10 | |||
Baby boomers are presently 52-70 years old. By 2020, they will be 56-74. Attrition increases sharply from there, but they're still just reaching that end of life period. Death rates for 55-65 are 0.8% per year; death rates for 65-75 are 2.0% per year. Boomers will be in the middle, losing just 5-6% of their numbers in 4 years. Even as many minority voters come of age, the Boomers will continue to be a political force. As they retire, they might also look forward to voting, and increase their turnout compared to present conditions, even possibly counteracting some of the attrition. We've not seen the last of the Trump voting bloc. However, as I remarked earlier, Clinton appears to have won the popular vote by a fairly strong margin*. Despite that the Boomers are likely to continue being an important sector of the electorate, their vote will still be diluted ever more, and the margin a 2020 Democratic candidate needs to gain in order to win is not large. Also interesting that a Republican candidate has won the popular vote only once since 1992; this is the only voting reality most post-Boomer folks know. By 2040, the Boomer generation will be 76-94, where the majority will have passed and those remaining will know their stark decline in influence. For that time period, the die is cast, and the Trump voters of today have lost in an unprecedented landslide. The impact of automation will also be clear by that period, and none will be able to sustain the illusion that government forces determined the fate of their industries. The Republican party of today, especially the Trump party, is hopelessly doomed. This is why I say they must (and will) change. *Clinton likely won the popular vote by a strong margin, albeit not totally unprecedented among those who won popular vote and lost electoral vote. Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 won with a -3% margin. John Quincy Adams won in 1824 won with a whopping -10.5% in the only election to go to the House (the famed Corrupt Bargain), plus which resulted in Andrew Jackson forming the Democratic Party and whipping JQA by an even larger margin in 1828. Also worth noting that only one president has ever gone two terms after losing the popular vote, and that is GWB, who also lost by the narrowest margin of -0.5%. If the predictions of California's mail-in ballots turn out as expected, Hillary will be the middle ground at +1.5%, above Benjamin Harrison's defeat of Grover Cleveland at -0.8%. In that case, Cleveland was actually the incumbent and lost to Harrison, then defeated Harrison 4 years later to become the only president to serve nonconsecutive terms. American politics are pretty crazy sometimes. Edited by Gamemako - November 12 2016 at 11:28 |
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Hail Eris!
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infocat
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: June 10 2011 Location: Colorado, USA Status: Offline Points: 4671 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 11:44 | |||
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Frank Swarbrick Belief is not Truth. |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 11:49 | |||
afterall... we are Americans first... I don't expect much from him.. but will give him any credit due if makes anything better ..
not that I'll likely still vote for him in 2020 unless he goes full blown 'Liz Warren... and that isn't likely to happen. the economics? yeah.. I can see pivots... what I am curious about... the social sh*t man. That is what I really care about. All the hate, anger and bigotry he pandered to in his hating angry and bigoted voters.... was that a f**k you to the voter.. or does he really believe it. That more than anything is what needs to be cleaned out of the Republican Party and America...moving forward.. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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TeleStrat
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 27 2014 Location: Norwalk, CA Status: Offline Points: 9319 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 11:51 | |||
This "old white men" conversation keeps going on but I don't pay as much attention to it as some do. I'm pretty sure I watched the same campaign as everyone else but every time I saw a Trump rally I saw the same thing. They were large, motivated and there were many women, young people and minorities in the crowd.
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 12:00 | |||
car collisions... train wrecks... airplane crashes....
you cant turn away from those... taking the numbers from what they are worth.. regardless of who showed up at his rallies to see what he might say.. or what brownshirted Trumpian thug might do... the voters seemed loud and clear that the minorities.. educated whites.. and the youth overwhelmingly were NOT Trump supporters.i. and Trump lost women decisively worse than any Republican candidate in years.. if ever.. and Republicans do not normally do notthat. His core support was angry old uneducated white guy.. such as was thought.. such as they voted this week.. seems a very fair point to make in these discussions Gary. Edited by micky - November 12 2016 at 12:02 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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TeleStrat
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 27 2014 Location: Norwalk, CA Status: Offline Points: 9319 |
Posted: November 12 2016 at 12:35 | |||
I've seen the breakdown of votes and I hear what you're saying, Mick. My point is that it's more than old white men that prevent the left from having it's way. It is Conservatism that has prevented that. According to a Gallup survey in January, 2015, Conservatives were at 38% while Liberals were at 24%. As time goes by these numbers could change. As far as the old white men thing, my two sons are 38 and 39 years old and they are Conservatives by their own choice. My grandson is 19 years old and he didn't talk to his girlfriend for three days because she supported Clinton.
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