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Atavachron 
Special Collaborator
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Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
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Points: 65317
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 Posted: November 11 2016 at 21:24 |
 Sean Trane wrote:
You know, from a outsider's PoV, is it that really that amazing that a
country that has already elected a peanut king, a third-rate actor, a
young giggolo too close to mafia circles, a near draft-escapee (well he
went to some safe regiment) and more that I forget as I write, that this
country now elects this rich reality-show bozo clown?? |
 That's the everyman charm of American politics. Thoughtful? Worldly? Sensitive? No, no, that won't do. Let's see, you forgot farmer-turned-General; Corrupt shyster; Bumbling athlete; and Skull-and-Boner spook.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20616
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 04:59 |
Gamemako wrote:
They tried to secede, but didn't succeed.
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No sh*t, but at the cost of over 600,000 lives. It was not movement that quickly fragmented and dissipated in just a few days.
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micky
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Points: 46838
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 06:16 |
well... first sign that a Trump presidency may NOT be the domestic apocalypse we feared repeal Obamacare and toss 20 million Ameicans back to the wolves and take away their insurance?... not so fast my right wing friends... so the war between Trump and the Republican party (congress) starts...
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 06:57 |
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I saw this week a few articles stating the obvious.... what happened...
they were wrong in 2012.. underestimating Obama's support... and well... absolutely blew this year. Public polls.. private internal ones... it seems Trump was just as surprised as Hillary.. and the rest of us at the result.
So where did the polling go wrong... first thought...
this election perhaps showed showed that who is NOT voting might be just as important as who is voting and who they are supporting. I'll be really curious to see the polling autopsies for the 2016 election
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
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Points: 9869
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:18 |
micky wrote:
this election perhaps showed showed that who is NOT voting might be just as important as who is voting and who they are supporting. I'll be really curious to see the polling autopsies for the 2016 election
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I am really surprised - and observed this during Brexit too - that this revelation has only now been made in American psephology or at least has not been paid much attention until now. Voter turnout has always been considered a key indicator in India though at least in the past it has been more about aggregate voter turnout than demographic segment wise (because in a country like India, economic issues are still far more important to decide an election rather than social ones which seem to divide the electorate).
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:26 |
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indeed Madan... I won't claim to be a statisicism.... I did stay at a Hollidy Inn once with a smokin blond and her frieaky red headed friend...
I suspect I know what the conclusion of said autosphy will be.... polls here are weighted by precentage of party affiliation. That had been a real point of contention for Republicans i ( the genesis of the 2016 polls are rigged mantra was that.polls were wrong in 2012). So in 2012 just straight random polling done privately by Republicans showed Romney winning.. well to their surprise.. they got smoked.
however what the polls may not take into account is a drop off within a party... so if one keeps the old weighted percentage.. yet one is not performing up to it... you may get what you have here.. a completely blown election.
how to fix that... that is something that even a smokin' blond and freaky redhead don't have the power to give me....I'll leave that to the asexual progheads in the polling department.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Joined: October 02 2005
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Points: 46838
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:35 |
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then again there is the Occam's Razor approach to answering 'what went wrong with polling'
the FBI director did not just merely influence the election... he fundamentally changed it.. and the polls simply don't have the time to reflect it
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
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Points: 9869
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:41 |
Ah, I get it now. Party affiliation is not considered very important in India. The BJP which is enamoured of all things American politics including FDR's slogan Happy Days Are Here Again has been experimenting with it after winning in 2014. Generally the idea is to poll a representative sample of voters accounting for all relevant issues. E.g a Muslim may not be comfortable voting for BJP so which way is he going to vote and how many of them are registered voters in a constituency/state. There are parties which purport to represent backward castes, so on and so forth. But if economic discontent runs high, it tends to overshadow the religion/caste arithmetic and unite voters across demographics in an anti-incumbency vote.
In any case we have a Parliamentary system with powers to block legislation given to the Upper House so any major changes have to necessarily be slow and gradual. It never is so dynamic as it is in USA. So that works both ways. Change is much slower and reaches people who need the change the most very late in the day but there is also less risk in the system of things spinning out of control. And our pesky neighbour ensures that in times of crisis, like 1991, parties will overcome their differences and work together to pass important legislation no matter what because the alternative is letting Pak mobilise troops all the way into Delhi.
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:47 |
as there are more democrats than Republicans... a depressed turnout could prove catastrophic to polling... if that is indeed the case.. it is actually a bit surprising that it took this long to have a 2016 blown election with regards to polling. They've been off inaccuate before... but never like this... that was a 306-232 Clinton win by the polling... missed by 360 degrees
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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O666
Forum Senior Member
Joined: September 20 2009
Location: TEHRAN-IRAN
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Points: 2619
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 07:57 |
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He is a American Version of Iranian Ex-President "Ahmadi Nejad" .
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
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Points: 9869
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:08 |
micky wrote:
then again there is the Occam's Razor approach to answering 'what went wrong with polling'
the FBI director did not just merely influence the election... he fundamentally changed it.. and the polls simply don't have the time to reflect it
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Right, but I am learning now that Michael Moore had already called the Rust Belt months before. OK, he's Michael Moore but Thom Hartmann did so as well and neither wanted Trump to win. Maybe there was an element of "No way that's happening, get out of here" in the mainstream media when polls showed that this was a possible pathway to the WH for Trump.
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:24 |
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the rust belt has been trending red.. so no.. it really isn't a surprise...
there really is a shift going on the traditional electoral map... there has been a lot of press on the red states turning blue.. look how close Georgia was ... in THIS election it was that close. It will be Virginia blue within a couple of cycles. But in return yeah.. the rust belt has been trending red.
then again... if .. no.. when the Democratic party moves left economically (that fight is already underway.. lets see who wins the DNC chairmanship... the left wing Bern baby.. or the HIllary centrist)... does that bring back into play working class whites?
we shall see....
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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timothy leary
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 29 2005
Location: Lilliwaup, Wa.
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Points: 5319
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:35 |
timothy leary wrote:
Here is what I will tell you, the only hope is Bernie Sanders. He can beat Trump. Trump will eat Hillary Clinton alive if she runs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-25/why-hillary-clinton-cannot-beat-donald-trump
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Someone said the Republican party is dead.
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rogerthat
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Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
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Points: 9869
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:35 |
micky wrote:
the rust belt has been trending red.. so no.. it really isn't a surprise...
there really is a shift going on the traditional electoral map... there has been a lot of press on the red states turning blue.. look how close Georgia was ... in THIS election it was that close. It will be Virginia blue within a couple of cycles. But in return yeah.. the rust belt has been trending red. |
Come now, micky, I don't want to be 'that guy' but I am sure when you hoped for a Clinton landslide (was it something like 400 votes?) you did not account for the blue wall being broken by Trump. Even Virginia was close and for a long way into the race on 9th, did have Trump in the lead. And even if you weren't surprised, it does seem to have caught the mainstream media as well as the Democratic establishment by surprise. They took these states for granted and wondered why Trump was wasting his time campaigning in Michigan instead of battleground states. Well, because he thought he was going to sew up the Rust Belt and even said so IIRC.
micky wrote:
then again... if .. no.. when the Democratic party moves left economically (that fight is already underway.. lets see who wins the DNC chairmanship... the left wing Bern baby.. or the HIllary centrist)... does that bring back into play working class whites?
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I would be shocked if the DNC really gives Clinton another shot at the Presidency or any great leadership role going ahead. Either or both of Warren and Sanders may provide leadership in the years ahead. Lansing mayor Virgil Bernero spoke very strongly about the problems of the Rust Belt so a working class pivot cannot be ruled out. But it may be difficult to reconcile that with the forward looking agenda that has got them the coasts and those are big votes too.
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:40 |
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of course I didn't... I didn't expect it ..but does it suprise me. No it doesn't.. what surprised me were (in order of surprise) Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona..
states COMPLETELY different than the rust belt in terms of demographics.... and all but Arizona just like the rust belt to have been in Hillary's column by the polling.. again as I said election night... there is a vast difference between polls showing a tightening.. as Hillary was far ahead previously...and Trump WINNING them.
Edited by micky - November 12 2016 at 08:41
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Joined: October 02 2005
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:46 |
[/QUOTE]
I would be shocked if the DNC really gives Clinton another shot at the Presidency or any great leadership role going ahead. Either or both of Warren and Sanders may provide leadership in the years ahead. Lansing mayor Virgil Bernero spoke very strongly about the problems of the Rust Belt so a working class pivot cannot be ruled out. But it may be difficult to reconcile that with the forward looking agenda that has got them the coasts and those are big votes too. [/QUOTE] No I don't see it either.. but lets be honest... I thought this was a discussion that we'd be having 8 years from now. As I said to Scott.. Bernie was ahead of his time... America wasn't ready for him and his politics in 2016.. it goes as far as the Democratic Party itself. That is the fight... some in the party are indeed centrists and don't agree (or are scared politically) to move the party left economically. In the end.. it is what it is... you evolve or you die. The future of the party is to the left.. and that is where I'd expect they go with choosing the Bernie guy from Minnosota over the Clinton-centric party of Howard Dean.
Edited by micky - November 12 2016 at 08:47
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:47 |
micky wrote:
of course I didn't... I didn't expect it ..but does it suprise me. No it doesn't.. what surprised me were (in order of surprise) Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona..
states COMPLETELY different than the rust belt in terms of demographics.... and all but Arizona just like the rust belt to have been in Hillary's column by the polling.. again as I said election night... there is a vast difference between polls showing a tightening.. as Hillary was far ahead previously...and Trump WINNING them.
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Trump actually got some Hispanic votes in Florida. Even if he didn't win all of them over, whatever he got added to the Great White vote to form a potent coalition. Those who came in through the front door - to use their expression - don't like their fellow Hispanics getting in through the back door. I can relate to this attitude from my interactions with Indian-Americans. Liberals think of ethnic minorities as monolithic blocks but we are not and it is time class was accounted for in understanding how demographics behave again. Those who got in legally and have built up a successful existence in USA will tend to look down on and even dislike illegal immigrants from their own country especially because they don't want the latter coming to them begging for help.
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:51 |
Cubans have always been a bit right leaning in terms of US politics... and they do get a good percentage in Florida traditionally...the Republicans have been throwing away their potential votes by their hard line hate game against immigration and hispanics in general. They could lock down Florida by easing up on the hate.. then again... that is the basis of much of their white vote. Fear hate and bigotry
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat
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Joined: September 03 2006
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 08:58 |
micky wrote:
Cubans have always been a bit right leaning in terms of US politics... and they do get a good percentage in Florida traditionally...the Republicans have been throwing away their potential votes by their hard line hate game against immigration and hispanics in general. They could lock down Florida by easing up on the hate.. then again... that is the basis of much of their white vote. Fear hate and bigotry
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Apparently so hard to stitch together a coalition everyone can get on board, huh. I am discussing this elsewhere too and the problem is the insularity of discourse these days where progressives only talk to other progressives and conservatives only to other conservatives. There is no challenging of ideas, listening to alternative perspectives and fundamentally no understanding of needs of a person who lives a different life from self. Democracy is not very feasible at all in such circumstances. I hate to sound so pessimistic but it's that time of the century again. It will take fascism, the resulting wars and an existence of dire poverty for humanity to learn to make the best of circumstances and to get along with less than ideal neighbours all over again. Too much choice has spoiled us, it seems. I really don't see what can be done now. It's a tinderbox and events may well be set in motion that lead to disaster from here on. Cameron's disastrous decision to sign up for the Brexit referendum may in retrospect be compared to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
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micky
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Posted: November 12 2016 at 09:05 |
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look at this forum... this is a sausage fest in terms of political makeup... it is out there in the real world where you get that discussion. Not the internet... it tends to be tribal it it own ways.
see I work in a blue collar grunt world and yeah.. even though where I live is solid f**king blue (75-25 Clinton vote here the DC burbs) .. there still are a lot of Trump supporters/Hillary haters here and I had many a good discussion with them. No ones mind gets changed.. that isn't the point.. it is understanding the other side. Why do they vote as they do.
and agreed with Brexit.. at least if Trump proves to be a mistake.. we get rid of him in 4 and can clean up after him just as we did Bush.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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American Politics the 2016 edition