The American Politics Thread

You're saying that Trump will provide Federal funds so California keeps burning. 

I'm glad Jeff Sessions is gone.  The only thing Sessions did was continue the war on drugs.  Now Trump can move to Federally legalize weed.    

Elections?  Dems win House while GOP adds a tad to their Senate Majority.   Balance is beautiful! 

How does Trump's first midterm House compare to Obama's first midterm?   During Obama's first midterm election, the democrats lost 63 seats.   During Trump's first midterm election  the GOP lost 30 seats, with 13 races still too close to call.

About a month ago on this thread, I made a prediction.  I had pointed out that Trump's tax cuts save me a few thousand a year.  Someone (who will go unnamed) countered with rising gas prices.   I then predicted gas prices would start to go down.   Since my prediction...nationwide, gas prices down 21 cents a gallon over the last month.   

Now, I predict the Mueller probe will wind up in the next 2-3 months.  I predict Mueller will find zero Trump-Russian collusion.  But then again, I predicted no Trump -Russia collusion over a year an half ago...on this very thread.  

By using facts instead of feelings- plus research, and evidence...I'm able to make predictions that come to pass.  I'm not special.   Anyone, using scientific method techniques can do the same thing.    Wouldn't you say that predictions based on scientific method is the best way to measure and predict reality?  

I can actually hear Trump saying, "The FIRE WALL, it will be a big and beautiful thing."

yeah man.. who the hell else would I be talking about...  Ompha is our Russian friend haha the rest of us knuckleheaded upstarts bent on ruling the world.

anyhow...   wow and double wow...   of curiousity did some number crunching this election shattered the previous record (1964)for off year elections for turnout by percentage.  It pretty much equaled a Presidential turn out.  Which makes the takeaways from this election very pertinent to what is coming in 2020.  

Here in Va. 8.  in 2016 360k got out to vote.. in 2018...323k

a harder crunch I did this evening while following the Az votes as they came in.  (early voting, traditional voting, and dropping off ballots the day of = wow man.. it looks like Sinema is going to take it.. but the result really won't be known until next week. GOP insiders pretty much admitted that if Sinema expanded her slim lead from yesterday (she doubled it today) this race was pretty much over.

in 2016 for a true battleground state voter turnout was 75% or approx 74% or 2.6 million votes cast

in 2018..  with seemingly 100's of thousands still outstadnding..  over 2 million votes have been counted in Az.

that is the main takeaway from 2018. the turnout..  both sides are highly energized to vote and taking an interest in what is going on.   That really is a good thing man... and the most likely reason 2016 isn't going to repeat itself. There will likely be next to no voter apathy.. especially on the Democratic side.

In 2010, the US economy was only just getting out of the worst recession since the 1930s.  Now you have a booming economy, tax cuts et al.  With a more popular Republican president, the GOP would have done better in the mid term polls, perhaps not conceded very many seats at all to the Democrats.  Trump's handling of MeToo alienated suburban women voters and his inability to unequivocally call a spade a spade after the Pittsburgh shooting was the last straw.  If the October surprise did Hillary in in 2016, Pittsburgh was the late nasty bit of bad news that hurt Trump with not enough time to pull back.  He could have salvaged it by doing anything other than recommending those going to the synagogue to offer prayers to go armed.  

I think the difference between 2016 and now is that then, even those suburban voters voted for the party, hoping/believing that they would keep Trump in check.  They seem to have lost that faith, at least for now, and delivered a strong repudiation of the GOP.  Some of its own leaders had predicted that the Kavanaugh defence was going to cost them suburban votes in the House and it has. They seem to have decided that keeping control of the Senate for long enough to populate the Supreme Court with youngish conservative judges was more important. In other words, they are already preparing for the eventuality that Trump may be a one term president.  If the Dems are smart, they won't rush to impeach him and let him defeat himself in 2020.  I had my doubts earlier over whether Democrats had a pathway to victory but after the Midterms, I feel it is doable IF they mobilise the suburban vote and field moderate faces to sew up the Midwest. They cannot repeat the 2016 mistake of writing off Midwest voters as 'bigoted'; find a platform instead that's inclusive and not solely dependent on a minority coalition.  Trump has inadvertently handed them a path to slice up the white vote so that even if Trump consolidates the non college educated white vote (but loses most of the minority vote), it may not be enough. 

Great article and that is exactly what has happened.  Their disgust with Trump has spilled over to the GOP in turn for being craven and not resisting him.