American Politics the 2016 edition

whoot!  Happy 100th page everyone.

Note John the difference between support for each candidate. The % of Hillary voters that support her is much higher than Trumps... who are just voting for him as a anti-Hillary vote.  That explains much of what you are seeing there and why there was a very real fear of Trump's support falling short when it actually came to voting. The lack of turnout. Perhaps the FBI thingie reversed that to some extent but up until last week it was a very real concern and possibility and at the heart of it is lack of support for him... merely voting against the other candidate. There is some of course on the Democratic side..an anti-Trump segment but polls have shown it is much less. 

and no.. no one should trust Putin... and in a thoughtful world... should be asking why Putin has taken such an interest. It isn't because he doesn't like Hillary.. it is he knows Trump would be a infant among the jackels on the world politcal stage. That is assuming of course he doesn't have some ties to him that the FBI didn't find while too busy sorting out Hillary's f**king emails. 

Silver may be a nice guy... nah.. by most accounts he is prick.. so yeah...  nice to see his metrics falling Very flat. Polls are not everything.. didn't everyone learn that in 2012 that called for a much closer race than we actually had.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/has-trump-already-lost-nevada/

so starting the count... likely Dems are picking up 2 House seats in Nevada, keeping Reid's old seat.. and taking back the state legislature.

the 360 article does raise the point.. the polls are blowing Nevada.. is just an isolated case.. or more a general case. All one can say is look at 2012..  the polls undersold Democratic votes there as well.  Anyhow, Nevada's early returns might be the first clue of what some have been saying.... that the polls are underestimating Democratic support.

just as a note .... that was an early September snapshot... the gulf widened more after the debates after Hillary showed so well... last I heard Clinton's 'support' among those voting for her rose into the 60's.. and still more Trump voters are voting against Hillary more than voting for him.

one positive to take at least... at least a majority of Republicans aren't batsh*t crazy.. most are merely ignorant partisans who wouldn't know the better candidate if it bit them in the ass and would vote for Hilter over Gandhi as long he registered Republican had backing of the Christian Right and the NRA  hahaha.

Comey has announced that, as expected, nothing was found in the new batch of emails that changes anything.

lazland wrote: A question I asked a few days ago, to which no response was, I believe, properly forthcoming. It is....... Democrats........are your collective bums getting ever so squeaky yet? The realisation that that woman could still conspire to lose an election in America against the most unlikely and unbelievable candidate in history? Squeaky bum time. That moment in one's life when you realise it could all come crashing down in ruins. Farting and sh*tting in extremis at the prospect, without really much of a clue about how to stop the flow. With apologies to those readers eating their Sunday meal whilst reading this......

short answer... 

no..  if one has been paying attention.  Clinton is quietly winning Florida.. much as she likely did with Nevada.. long before election day.

a bit of history on Florida...  Republicans have always had a large lead on early votes cast.. then Democrats vote on election day and close the gap and catch up.. and you have a tight result.

This year the Democrats have turned out more votes in early voting... in fact.. nearly 50k more than Republicans this year... couple that with traditional leads in same day voting (hispanic voters tend to not vote early).. and .  if Florida is Democratic..  the election is over. Trump has no path...

seriously.. don't listen to the polls.. listen to Mick....   95-5 Clinton wins... the basic electoral math has not changed..  Trump pretty much has to win all the battleground states and he isn't doing that... so no..  I might be wrong.. that 5% is still a chance.. but worry?  Not a bit...


Edited by micky - November 06 2016 at 14:27

  I have been posting it for weeks now...  it has been no secret...  Clinton had a 4-1 advantage on the ground.. and that matters in getting out the vote and they have been. It has been reported.. but not exactly front page material which still fixates on the larger overall polls (oh.. and the FBI story). They did in Nevada .. that is a bit of an outlier since so MANY vote early (70%) so yeah.. privately that state is already being called for Clinton..  the other 3 states.  NC, Georgia and Florida. All have been much the same.. signiifcantly increased Democratic turnout. 

Likely that seals Florida for the reasons I mentioned.  NC as well since that state has also been so close.

Georgia is more a stretch... 50-50 on that. The point is...  Trump had to win all 4... and STILL win states he has never led.. or really been all that close in polls.. to win the election. Thus the completely unscientific gut 95-5 Clinton odds.  Silver has Clinton at 65.. and as you might guess.. that has subject to complete ridicule. He is numbers guy... in a statistical world perhaps there is a 35% chance.. but he is ignoring the facts ...and the notion shown in 2012.. and likely to perhaps be the biggest take of the 2016 election.. that our polling system is not keeping pace with changes in America. They called for a close race in 2012.. nope.. they are in 2016.. and is it is highly likely this election will be over in the first hour after the first state closes.

micky wrote: JJLehto wrote: Speaking of the FBI...seems the bleeding from their actions has finally stopped.  Clinton still leads the polls but she is now at her bare minimum.  No word from Micky suddenly? But really, this election may be tight, certainly no blowout. Clinton supporters have a right to be happy, 10 years of waiting can finally come to an end, just hope they are ready for a short party. Once Jan comes, the nightmare of normal politics can resume Given her unpopularity entering, a very likely split Congress, not gunna be a fun time ahead.  the whole of the last week hurt the FBI more than it did Clinton. Why? the FBI dealio gave the anti-Clinton's a ray of hope and that will mobilize their voters..  but conversely it will the do the same for Clinton votes.  There has been a tightening of the polls..  sure... but Clinton was so far ahead it should make no difference. what I will be curious about is testing my theory that the polls are underselling Clintons real support.  I fully expect a few suprises on Tuesday.. some results the polls didn't fully catch.  the hispanic vote.  For all the talk of the missing white vote.. there truly is a missing vote segement to the US population and it is the Hispanic vote.  While most all demographics turn out to vote in the 60's percentage wise.. the hispanic vote has been significantly less.. in the 40's.   Word coming in from early vote is hispanic vote has been mobilized and if even gets into the 50's... that is millions of votes for Hillary and I don't know if the national polls are catching it. Remember... 2012...  they also undersold the soft belly of Democratic support.  I dont' think the election will be the runaway it could have been, the FBI leak likely ended dreams of that by removing the element of a depressed Republican vote... but to use Silver's much maligned numbers   I'd say 65-35 Hillary no doubter win  (over by 8pm in the east) over a close election (she gets less than 300 electoral votes). the one thing the FBI bombshell likely did was significantly decrease the odds of the House flipping... depressed Repubican turnout was going to be the key to that for the Democrats. two days left

Equality 7-2521 wrote: JJLehto wrote: Sounds more like some people are, basically, taking matters into their hands. Which is even more disturbing in a way. But yes I am not shocked that an intelligence agency would have a favorable opinion of Trump. Its like how so many (not all of course) military families like Trump. At first it surprised me...but I realized if you have a natural affinity for authority...naturally you'll like Trump.  Speaking of the FBI...seems the bleeding from their actions has finally stopped.  Clinton still leads the polls but she is now at her bare minimum.  No word from Micky suddenly? But really, this election may be tight, certainly no blowout. Clinton supporters have a right to be happy, 10 years of waiting can finally come to an end, just hope they are ready for a short party. Once Jan comes, the nightmare of normal politics can resume Given her unpopularity entering, a very likely split Congress, not gunna be a fun time ahead.  Is it shocking? Clinton's State department repeatedly acted contrary to the advice given by intelligence agencies. I think they'd prefer a naive president who can be convinced of their policy suggestions than one who has a clear vision with a presumption of superior knowledge.