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The Pessimist ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: June 13 2007 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 3834 |
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After readin through the Political Discussion Thread, I decided to create an Economical Discussion Thread, as I know almost nothing about politics
![]() However, I am planning to take an economics degree at University. I'm highly interested in it and I know a fair bit also. So as you all know, many countries are in a downturn at the moment, the main culprit being oil prices in my opinion. Zimbabwe has perhaps the highest rate of inflation in the world at a mammoth rate of 231,000,000%. Unemployment is also a pretty big issue in the UK, and if we are not careful with the bank bailouts, we may be in a rare deflation state. Please discuss, all of you who are pretty hot on the world economy ![]() I would also love to know what's going on in other countries as well, e.g. The U.S., Germany and the like. |
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"Market value is irrelevant to intrinsic value."
Arnold Schoenberg |
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Epignosis ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2007 Location: Raeford, NC Status: Offline Points: 32552 |
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I'm one of millions of unemployed people here in the USA, which has an unemployment rate sitting right under a scary 7%.
I lost my job as a teacher in July (which had nothing to do with the economic at all, but with major property tax cuts). I've applied to over 75 positions, and had two interviews that went nowhere. And companies continue to lay off workers, or as the British say, the "redundancies." I hoping things take a turn for the better come January. At least gasoline is under two dollars a gallon. Edited by Epignosis - December 11 2008 at 11:35 |
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Padraic ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: February 16 2006 Location: Pennsylvania Status: Offline Points: 31169 |
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The current, immediate issue right now in the U.S. is a federal "bailout" of our domestic auto industry. A bill has passed the House and must now be considered by the Senate to provide an emergency bridge loan to the so-called "Big Three" American auto companies.
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Epignosis ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2007 Location: Raeford, NC Status: Offline Points: 32552 |
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The senate vote could be decided by whomever paid Blagojevich the most $$$. ![]() |
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Slartibartfast ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / In Memoriam Joined: April 29 2006 Location: Atlantais Status: Offline Points: 29630 |
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...
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Atkingani ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: October 21 2005 Location: Terra Brasilis Status: Offline Points: 12288 |
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I'm not sure if oil prices were the only responsible for the economical downturn that we are seeing recently. Actually other factors seem much more guilty for the present depression.
I'm quite sure that in 2 years ahead things will return to normality
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Guigo
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johnobvious ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 11 2006 Location: Nebraska Status: Offline Points: 1367 |
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I usually at least leaf through the Wall St Journal every day and it is depressing and becoming a vicious cycle. People losing their jobs, people spending less so more places have to cut jobs and so on and so on. The United States has built it's economy on people wanting to own so much superfluous crap and others building businesses and employing people to sell them that crap that once we all opened our eyes and realized that maybe we only need essentials, it is like a house of cards come crumbling down. And when we buy less stuff, we are also importing less stuff so that affects other countries as well who have built up industries on American's desire to own.
Bailout or no, I think we are in the dumper for quite some time. The only hope we have is the that Americans pull themselves up by their bootstraps and start buying crap again. |
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Biggles was in rehab last Saturday
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johnobvious ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 11 2006 Location: Nebraska Status: Offline Points: 1367 |
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Atkingani: well at least one of the major forces who ran us into the ground is gone and that is Alan Greenspan. The most overrated government official in quite some time was nothing but a fraud. If that guy sleeps at night, I would be even more mad than I am now.
Edited by johnobvious - December 11 2008 at 12:59 |
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Biggles was in rehab last Saturday
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Epignosis ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2007 Location: Raeford, NC Status: Offline Points: 32552 |
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I would love to resume doing my part fulfilling the "demand" part of the spectrum, but I have my hands full keeping a roof over our heads. |
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Slartibartfast ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / In Memoriam Joined: April 29 2006 Location: Atlantais Status: Offline Points: 29630 |
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From thismodernworld.com :
November 29, 2008
Jonathan Schwarz:
This is from a New York Times interview with Jamie Galbraith:
Here’s the Wall Street Journal, writing about Robert Rubin:
Uncategorized | --> posted by
Jonathan Schwarz
at 11:17 PM | link
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...
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Atkingani ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: October 21 2005 Location: Terra Brasilis Status: Offline Points: 12288 |
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It's obvious, John
![]() My own country, Brazil, almost broke twice in 1985 and 1999 and so the banking regulations were so intense and heavy that we didn't undergo a huge injury with the present crisis even getting some debris. When the regulations were done, 9 years ago, some people complained that the Government was shackling the market and stuff like that but these regulations showed to be healthy in the actual environment. In reality, we have a long tradition of Government actions in private issues, something that US and other countries are experiencing now for the first time or at least since the end of WWII.
The Brazilian growth in the period July-Aug-Sept/2008 was 6.8% and even if the last 3 months of the year go null, the annual growth will peak 4.8% although the market expects something around 5.0%. Let's see how things will behave in 2009, since the economy growth here is 80% based on the internal market not in the external market, like China or Japan.
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Guigo
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Tapfret ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 12 2007 Location: Bryant, Wa Status: Offline Points: 8602 |
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Please don't boot me for posting the S word, but this is just too apropos.
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DavetheSlave ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 23 2007 Location: South Africa Status: Offline Points: 492 |
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Hi johnobvious - you know- I don't know that the World Economic crisis isn't an extension of the Iraq war. The Arab nations are very wealthy and obviously - through that wealth - have the ability to play with World markets!! My opinion is that what we are seeing today is an extension of the Arab (call it that for want of not upsetting people who would take us out individuall) West war!!
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The Pessimist ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: June 13 2007 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 3834 |
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Being an Economics student at A level, I completely agree with the fact that it is treated like a Science. I also agree on the fact that it's almost useless, not due to personal experience, but down to the fact that if all the theories worked, then surely the Economic Problem, Unemployment and Inflation across the globe would have been sorted by now. Also, why aren't all companies, i.e. British Banks, at some kind of optimum instead of having to be bailed out? Yeah, I completely support that statement. As for the quotes? They are excellent. Trust you to bring some form of humour into the discussion ![]() ![]() Edited by kibble_alex - December 11 2008 at 14:17 |
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"Market value is irrelevant to intrinsic value."
Arnold Schoenberg |
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Slartibartfast ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / In Memoriam Joined: April 29 2006 Location: Atlantais Status: Offline Points: 29630 |
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I bet you didn't forsee that coming when you started this thread. ![]() I love the invisible hand one. "If it's invisible why can we see it? Never mind that--just run!!" Tapfret's is good, too. ![]() Edited by Slartibartfast - December 11 2008 at 14:53 |
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...
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The Pessimist ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: June 13 2007 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 3834 |
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That one is utterly brilliant also. "Now you're out $25 million, plus the cost of your Subaru" ![]() To be honest, I'd run from a giant hand with eyes also ![]() |
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"Market value is irrelevant to intrinsic value."
Arnold Schoenberg |
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limeyrob ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() VIP Member Joined: January 15 2005 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 1402 |
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Actually I thought it was down to an overpopulation of people being given credit to buy an excess of stuff they don't need at a price that they can't afford. Anyone who is willing to commit themselves to a store charge card at 26%-29% interest when the base rate has been round about 5-7% (until recently that is) needs to look at their priorities. The number of times I have heard people say OK we can't afford it but we'll get it anyway cos we deserve it, beggars belief. And now that credit is no longer available and the creditors want their money back.
OK I may be a grumpy old git but at least a grumpy old git in the black.
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johnobvious ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 11 2006 Location: Nebraska Status: Offline Points: 1367 |
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They certainly play with the cost of oil. They are not stupid and understand perfectly the laws of supply and demand but try and manipulate them in order to manipulate Americans into how we feel about oil. The price of oil goes through the roof for awhile and then goes back down. So when it goes back up, we are conditioned to be okay with it because it isn't as bad as it was. And it will go back up. And the American oil companies play right into this because they are in it for stockholders. And while some of them are (obstensibly) looking at alternatives, others just pad their pockets at the expense of a lot of lower income people. And they all cry about market forces when hauled in front of congress which is a crock. I saw recently that Iran and Venezuela are crying because oil is now beneath their break even point to have enough money to run their countries. What did they do when it was way over the break even point? Spend it on belly dancers? OPEC may very well be fracturing due to infighting about supply and it will be where each country swings their own deal. Then you would see supply and demand mean something when it comes to oil and only the smart will able to make money on oil instead of relying on OPEC. |
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Biggles was in rehab last Saturday
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johnobvious ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 11 2006 Location: Nebraska Status: Offline Points: 1367 |
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You are right and it goes right into my earlier point. All this credit availability allows people to buy more than what they should. Be it bigger houses than they can rightfully afford or more stuff. And businesses and jobs become dependent on this whole philosophy. When the frivolous stuff goes, the jobs go. The more jobs lost, then even more frivolous stuff and sometimes important stuff gets sacrificed. It feeds on itself. The housing bubble was the same deal as the tech bubble. A lot of people thought in the back of their minds that it couldn't last or was too good to be true, but wanted to ride the gravy train because everyone else was. I don't claim to be a genius on this stuff or claim I knew it was coming, but one day people are going to figure out that after you get your fingers burned so many times, maybe keep them out of the oven. |
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Biggles was in rehab last Saturday
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Slartibartfast ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / In Memoriam Joined: April 29 2006 Location: Atlantais Status: Offline Points: 29630 |
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Hmm, I wonder what the unemployment rate is for economists? ![]() |
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...
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