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The Pessimist View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: The Economics Discussion Thread
    Posted: December 11 2008 at 11:16
After readin through the Political Discussion Thread, I decided to create an Economical Discussion Thread, as I know almost nothing about politics

However, I am planning to take an economics degree at University. I'm highly interested in it and I know a fair bit also.

So as you all know, many countries are in a downturn at the moment, the main culprit being oil prices in my opinion. Zimbabwe has perhaps the highest rate of inflation in the world at a mammoth rate of 231,000,000%. Unemployment is also a pretty big issue in the UK, and if we are not careful with the bank bailouts, we may be in a rare deflation state.

Please discuss, all of you who are pretty hot on the world economy

I would also love to know what's going on in other countries as well, e.g. The U.S., Germany and the like.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 11:34
I'm one of millions of unemployed people here in the USA, which has an unemployment rate sitting right under a scary 7%.

I lost my job as a teacher in July (which had nothing to do with the economic at all, but with major property tax cuts).  I've applied to over 75 positions, and had two interviews that went nowhere.

And companies continue to lay off workers, or as the British say, the "redundancies."

I hoping things take a turn for the better come January.  At least gasoline is under two dollars a gallon.


Edited by Epignosis - December 11 2008 at 11:35
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 11:35
The current, immediate issue right now in the U.S. is a federal "bailout" of our domestic auto industry.  A bill has passed the House and must now be considered by the Senate to provide an emergency bridge loan to the so-called "Big Three" American auto companies.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 11:45
Originally posted by NaturalScience NaturalScience wrote:

The current, immediate issue right now in the U.S. is a federal "bailout" of our domestic auto industry.  A bill has passed the House and must now be considered by the Senate to provide an emergency bridge loan to the so-called "Big Three" American auto companies.


The senate vote could be decided by whomever paid Blagojevich the most $$$.  Wink
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 11:58
Not on topic, but what's Blago hiding under that hair that covers his forehead?



Tmssa081117

TMW12-10-08original.jpg





Edited by Slartibartfast - December 11 2008 at 12:44
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 12:45
I'm not sure if oil prices were the only responsible for the economical downturn that we are seeing recently. Actually other factors seem much more guilty for the present depression.
 
I'm quite sure that in 2 years ahead things will return to normality Confused with the same people that sank the boat still commanding the helm of the economy only to sink another boat 3 or 5 years later. In the end, those without voice, everywhere, will lose and suffer and those with a big mouth will gain and laugh.
Guigo

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 12:54
I usually at least leaf through the Wall St Journal every day and it is depressing and becoming a vicious cycle.  People losing their jobs, people spending less so more places have to cut jobs and so on and so on.  The United States has built it's economy on people wanting to own so much superfluous crap and others building businesses and employing people to sell them that crap that once we all opened our eyes and realized that maybe we only need essentials, it is like a house of cards come crumbling down. And when we buy less stuff, we are also importing less stuff so that affects other countries as well who have built up industries on American's desire to own.

Bailout or no, I think we are in the dumper for quite some time.  The only hope we have is the that Americans pull themselves up by their bootstraps and start buying crap again.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 12:59
Atkingani:  well at least one of the major forces who ran us into the ground is gone and that is Alan Greenspan.  The most overrated government official in quite some time was nothing but a fraud.  If that guy sleeps at night, I would be even more mad than I am now. 

Edited by johnobvious - December 11 2008 at 12:59
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 13:36
Originally posted by johnobvious johnobvious wrote:



The only hope we have is the that Americans pull themselves up by their bootstraps and start buying crap again.


I would love to resume doing my part fulfilling the "demand" part of the spectrum, but I have my hands full keeping a roof over our heads.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 13:59
From thismodernworld.com :
November 29, 2008
Jonathan Schwarz:

This is from a New York Times interview with Jamie Galbraith:

Do you find it odd that so few economists foresaw the current credit disaster?
Some did. The person with the most serious claim for seeing it coming is Dean Baker, the Washington economist. I saw it coming in general terms.

But there are at least 15,000 professional economists in this country, and you’re saying only two or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis?
Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.

What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science?
It’s an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal, writing about Robert Rubin:

Under fire for his role in the near-collapse of Citigroup Inc., Robert Rubin said its problems were due to the buckling financial system, not its own mistakes, and that his role was peripheral to the bank’s main operations even though he was one of its highest-paid officials.

“Nobody was prepared for this,” Mr. Rubin said in an interview. He cited former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan as another example of someone whose reputation has been unfairly damaged by the crisis.

Noam Chomsky:

[T]he commissars, the secular priesthood, the state ideologists…I think it is an extremely corrupt group. I think this is also the group that is the most subject to effective indoctrination, tends to have the least understanding of what is happening in the world, in fact, tends to have a sort of institutionalized stupidity.

Mark Twain:

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.

George Orwell:

Whether the British ruling class are wicked or merely stupid is one of the most difficult questions of our time.

Uncategorized | -->

posted by Jonathan Schwarz at 11:17 PM | link

Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 14:08
Originally posted by johnobvious johnobvious wrote:

Atkingani:  well at least one of the major forces who ran us into the ground is gone and that is Alan Greenspan.  The most overrated government official in quite some time was nothing but a fraud.  If that guy sleeps at night, I would be even more mad than I am now. 
 
It's obvious, John Wink, that AG is out but the problem is if his ideas remain. Will always be someone(s) following his steps.
 
My own country, Brazil, almost broke twice in 1985 and 1999 and so the banking regulations were so intense and heavy that we didn't undergo a huge injury with the present crisis even getting some debris. When the regulations were done, 9 years ago, some people complained that the Government was shackling the market and stuff like that but these regulations showed to be healthy in the actual environment. In reality, we have a long tradition of Government actions in private issues, something that US and other countries are experiencing now for the first time or at least since the end of WWII.
 
The Brazilian growth in the period July-Aug-Sept/2008 was 6.8% and even if the last 3 months of the year go null, the annual growth will peak 4.8% although the market expects something around 5.0%. Let's see how things will behave in 2009, since the economy growth here is 80% based on the internal market not in the external market, like China or Japan.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 14:15
Please don't boot me for posting the S word, but this is just too apropos. 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 14:15
Hi johnobvious - you know- I don't know that the World Economic crisis isn't an extension of the Iraq war. The Arab nations are very wealthy and obviously - through that wealth - have the ability to play with World markets!! My opinion is that what we are seeing today is an extension of the Arab (call it that for want of not upsetting people who would take us out individuall) West war!!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 14:16
Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:

From thismodernworld.com :
November 29, 2008
Jonathan Schwarz:

This is from a New York Times interview with Jamie Galbraith:

Do you find it odd that so few economists foresaw the current credit disaster?
Some did. The person with the most serious claim for seeing it coming is Dean Baker, the Washington economist. I saw it coming in general terms.

But there are at least 15,000 professional economists in this country, and you’re saying only two or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis?
Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three.

What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science?
It’s an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal, writing about Robert Rubin:

Under fire for his role in the near-collapse of Citigroup Inc., Robert Rubin said its problems were due to the buckling financial system, not its own mistakes, and that his role was peripheral to the bank’s main operations even though he was one of its highest-paid officials.

“Nobody was prepared for this,” Mr. Rubin said in an interview. He cited former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan as another example of someone whose reputation has been unfairly damaged by the crisis.

Noam Chomsky:

[T]he commissars, the secular priesthood, the state ideologists…I think it is an extremely corrupt group. I think this is also the group that is the most subject to effective indoctrination, tends to have the least understanding of what is happening in the world, in fact, tends to have a sort of institutionalized stupidity.

Mark Twain:

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.

George Orwell:

Whether the British ruling class are wicked or merely stupid is one of the most difficult questions of our time.

Uncategorized | -->

posted by Jonathan Schwarz at 11:17 PM | link


Being an Economics student at A level, I completely agree with the fact that it is treated like a Science. I also agree on the fact that it's almost useless, not due to personal experience, but down to the fact that if all the theories worked, then surely the Economic Problem, Unemployment and Inflation across the globe would have been sorted by now. Also, why aren't all companies, i.e. British Banks, at some kind of optimum instead of having to be bailed out? Yeah, I completely support that statement.

As for the quotes? They are excellent. Trust you to bring some form of humour into the discussion Love the cartoons by the way


Edited by kibble_alex - December 11 2008 at 14:17
"Market value is irrelevant to intrinsic value."

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 14:49
Originally posted by kibble_alex kibble_alex wrote:



As for the quotes? They are excellent. Trust you to bring some form of humour into the discussion Love the cartoons by the way

I bet you didn't forsee that coming when you started this thread. Tongue

I love the invisible hand one.  "If it's invisible why can we see it?  Never mind that--just run!!"  Tapfret's is good, too. LOL


Edited by Slartibartfast - December 11 2008 at 14:53
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 15:29
Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:

Originally posted by kibble_alex kibble_alex wrote:



As for the quotes? They are excellent. Trust you to bring some form of humour into the discussion Love the cartoons by the way

I bet you didn't forsee that coming when you started this thread. Tongue

I love the invisible hand one.  "If it's invisible why can we see it?  Never mind that--just run!!"  Tapfret's is good, too. LOL


That one is utterly brilliant also. "Now you're out $25 million, plus the cost of your Subaru" .

To be honest, I'd run from a giant hand with eyes also And the free market as well, it's fantastic but I wouldn't wanna get involved for the fact that it's an unnatural timebomb.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 16:31
Actually I thought it was down to an overpopulation of people being given credit to buy an excess of stuff they don't need at a price that they can't afford. Anyone who is willing to commit themselves to a store charge card at 26%-29% interest when the base rate has been round about 5-7% (until recently that is) needs to look at their priorities. The number of times I have heard people say OK we can't afford it but we'll get it anyway cos we deserve it, beggars belief. And now that credit is no longer available and the creditors want their money back.
OK I may be a grumpy old git but at least a grumpy old git in the black.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 16:34
Originally posted by DavetheSlave DavetheSlave wrote:

Hi johnobvious - you know- I don't know that the World Economic crisis isn't an extension of the Iraq war. The Arab nations are very wealthy and obviously - through that wealth - have the ability to play with World markets!! My opinion is that what we are seeing today is an extension of the Arab (call it that for want of not upsetting people who would take us out individuall) West war!!


They certainly play with the cost of oil.  They are not stupid and understand perfectly the laws of supply and demand but try and manipulate them in order to manipulate Americans into how we feel about oil.  The price of oil goes through the roof for awhile and then goes back down.  So when it goes back up, we are conditioned to be okay with it because it isn't as bad as it was.  And it will go back up.  And the American oil companies play right into this because they are in it for stockholders.  And while some of them are (obstensibly) looking at alternatives, others just pad their pockets at the expense of a lot of lower income people.  And they all cry about market forces when hauled in front of congress which is a crock.

I saw recently that Iran and Venezuela are crying because oil is now beneath their break even point to have enough money to run their countries.  What did they do when it was way over the break even point?  Spend it on belly dancers?  OPEC may very well be fracturing due to infighting about supply and it will be where each country swings their own deal.  Then you would see supply and demand mean something when it comes to oil and only the smart will able to make money on oil instead of relying on OPEC.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 16:41
Originally posted by limeyrob limeyrob wrote:

Actually I thought it was down to an overpopulation of people being given credit to buy an excess of stuff they don't need at a price that they can't afford. Anyone who is willing to commit themselves to a store charge card at 26%-29% interest when the base rate has been round about 5-7% (until recently that is) needs to look at their priorities. The number of times I have heard people say OK we can't afford it but we'll get it anyway cos we deserve it, beggars belief. And now that credit is no longer available and the creditors want their money back.
OK I may be a grumpy old git but at least a grumpy old git in the black.


You are right and it goes right into my earlier point.  All this credit availability allows people to buy more than what they should.  Be it bigger houses than they can rightfully afford or more stuff.  And businesses and jobs become dependent on this whole philosophy.  When the frivolous stuff goes, the jobs go.  The more jobs lost, then even more frivolous stuff and sometimes important stuff gets sacrificed. It feeds on itself.

The housing bubble was the same deal as the tech bubble.  A lot of people thought in the back of their minds that it couldn't last or was too good to be true, but wanted to ride the gravy train because everyone else was.  I don't claim to be a genius on this stuff or claim I knew it was coming, but one day people are going to figure out that after you get your fingers burned so many times, maybe keep them out of the oven. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2008 at 17:39
Originally posted by kibble_alex kibble_alex wrote:

However, I am planning to take an economics degree at University. I'm highly interested in it and I know a fair bit also.



Hmm, I wonder what the unemployment rate is for economists? LOL
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