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Prog-jester 
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 Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:03 |
 MikeEnRegalia wrote:
Are you really saying that if Ukraine had granted independence to the Donbass oblasts and not terrorized the people there, Russia would have killed them all? |
This is literally what russia is doing. Because they never cared for people of Donbass, they simply used them to invade Ukraine. As someone who was born on Donbass and spent 2/3 of my life living there - yes, people mostly speak russian there (because colonialism), but it doesn't mean they ever wanted to live in russia. There's a great book written by two Donbass residents on how russia metodically brainwashed and bribed Donbass authorities to undermine Kyiv's influence. I highly doubt you'll read it (since you'd made up your mind on the russian invasion and see the things the way you wanna see them), but it's a fascinating read nevertheless
Edited by Prog-jester - October 10 2023 at 10:03
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:09 |
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
There's surely ultra-nationalists on both sides. What does that have to do with the conflict? |
well wasn't "denazification" one of the main "righteous" excuses for russia to invade? and suddenly it's not that important?
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
They will never give these back.
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As if anyone gonna plead them  They claimed Kherson is "forever with russia", and look what happened on 11/11/22 ahah
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
Eventually everyone has to accept reality, whether we like it or not. |
Nah bro, it's not reality, it's another pro-russian talking point that you're helping to normalize, whether you understand this or not. If you're not with Ukraine - you're with russia, there's no grey area here. I don't make the rules, sorry
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:20 |
I guess many still can't grasp why the russian genocidal invasion of Ukraine is so important - well, hate to break it to you but it's very different from the ordinary territorial brawl (Karabakh, etc) or yet another US oil war. The russian invasion of Ukraine is the biggest IMPERIALISTIC CONQUEST of the 21th century so far - yes, you got it right, SO FAR. And judging from the collective West's lame responce to it, it's not gonna be the last. We're in WWIII basically, it's like when the Austrian painter guy took Poland and everybody were like "well he's definitely stopping there, isn't he?" - but of course he didn't. And literally every other conflict you're seeing in the last 18 months is the direct result of the West's weakness when facing the real threat - if russia succeeds, China will enter Taiwan, North Corea will jump on the South Corea and good old Balkans will be on fire once again. Because IMPERIALISTIC wars are never as rational/manageable as wars for resources/territory, they're always EXISTENTIAL. The H-guy saw Germans as the master race and wanted to eradicate all the others; the P-guy wants russia to become empire again (despite the fact that he fails hard to manage the territory/resources he ALREADY got). I hate historical parallels but they're so obvious here, so if you don't support Ukraine - you're basically rooting for WWIII whether you like it or not 
Edited by Prog-jester - October 10 2023 at 10:21
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:24 |
Lewian wrote:
Neither do I approve that people are called "psychopath" or "incapable of rational discussion" here if they don't behave as you'd like them to |
thanks for your support, I thought I was the one who noticed Mike's very russian way to communicate ahahah
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Easy Money
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:35 |
Prog-jester wrote:
Lewian wrote:
Neither do I approve that people are called "psychopath" or "incapable of rational discussion" here if they don't behave as you'd like them to |
thanks for your support, I thought I was the one who noticed Mike's very russian way to communicate ahahah |
Yeah, I've noticed through discussions on the internet, the Russians are always quick to resort to insults, its one of the easiest ways to spot Russians pretending to be yanks.
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omphaloskepsis
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 10:51 |
Prog-jester wrote:
Lewian wrote:
Neither do I approve that people are called "psychopath" or "incapable of rational discussion" here if they don't behave as you'd like them to |
thanks for your support, I thought I was the one who noticed Mike's very russian way to communicate ahahah |
How do you measure a person's ability to gauge reality? By their ability to predict the future. Without a firm grasp of reality...it's impossible to predict future events.
1. I predict that Russia will take the four Oblasts that voted to be in Russia. 2. I predict that Russia will take more of Ukraine than the four Oblasts. Russia will take parts of Oblasts that are ethnically Russian. 3. I predict that Ukraine will never join NATO. 4. I predict that Zelenski will leave Ukraine to live in one of the mansions that he has purchased in foreign countries. 5. I predict that America will gradually pull financial and weapons support. To the point that Ukraine will be forced to give Russia territory in exchange for Peace.
What do you predict Progjester? Demonstrate your grasp on reality. Which of my predictions do you agree with? Which do you disagree with? Will you make your own predictions? If you add predictions addressing other Ukraine topics. I will respond with my analysis/prediction on any subject you address.
Let's see which views are based on reality, and which views are based on wishes/magical thinking/cognitive dissonance. I predict that there is a 20% chance that you will respond with your own predictions, or a logical analysis, addressing my predictions.
That said, I await your predictions/analysis. Convince me of your vision of reality. I'm open-minded. I believe it's OK to be wrong...just don't stay wrong. Change my mind, Progjester. 
Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 10 2023 at 11:10
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:18 |
oh hey, my favourite pro-russian forum user returns! 
omphaloskepsis wrote:
1. I predict that Russia will take the four Oblasts that voted to be in Russia |
well they've taken less Ukrainian territory in the last 12 months than Ukraine liberated during fAiLeD counteroffensive, so this won't happen
omphaloskepsis wrote:
2. I predict that Russia will take more of Ukraine than the four Oblasts. Russia will take parts of Oblasts that are ethnically russian |
Since there are no ethnically russian oblasts in Ukraine, this won't happen either
omphaloskepsis wrote:
3. I predict that Ukraine will never join NATO. |
very possible
omphaloskepsis wrote:
4. I predict that Zelenski will leave Ukraine to live in one of the mansions that he has purchased in foreign countries |
I don't care if he did ( most evidence suggest he didn't, btw) and I don't care about him (didn't vote for him, not planning to vote for him in the future), dunno what to say
omphaloskepsis wrote:
5. I predict that America will gradually pull financial and weapons support. To the point that Ukraine will be forced to give Russia territory in exchange for Peace |
very possible
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Will you make your own predictions, addressing the topics I addressed? ... Convince me of your vision of reality |
why would I do this?  I would've never predicted Ukraine liberating Kherson or Kharkiv oblast as fast as they did, I would've never predicted russians fleeing Crimea en masse etc, so I'd rather continue doing what I do to help my people survive this imperialistic genocidal invasion
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:24 |
omphaloskepsis, with all these predictions and theories you're treating this war like a reality show or some funny game. What you should be doing tho is to start learning basic survival skills right now, because if Ukraine falls on Tuesday y'all be fighting russia, China, Iran and North Corea on Wednesday
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:39 |
Prog-jester wrote:
oh hey, my favourite pro-russian forum user returns!
omphaloskepsis wrote:
1. I predict that Russia will take the four Oblasts that voted to be in Russia |
well they've taken less Ukrainian territory in the last 12 months than Ukraine liberated during fAiLeD counteroffensive, so this won't happen
omphaloskepsis wrote:
2. I predict that Russia will take more of Ukraine than the four Oblasts. Russia will take parts of Oblasts that are ethnically russian |
Since there are no ethnically russian oblasts in Ukraine, this won't happen either
omphaloskepsis wrote:
3. I predict that Ukraine will never join NATO. |
very possible
omphaloskepsis wrote:
4. I predict that Zelenski will leave Ukraine to live in one of the mansions that he has purchased in foreign countries |
I don't care if he did (most evidence suggest he didn't, btw) and I don't care about him (didn't vote for him, not planning to vote for him in the future), dunno what to say
omphaloskepsis wrote:
5. I predict that America will gradually pull financial and weapons support. To the point that Ukraine will be forced to give Russia territory in exchange for Peace |
very possible
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Will you make your own predictions, addressing the topics I addressed? ... Convince me of your vision of reality |
why would I do this? I would've never predicted Ukraine liberating Kherson or Kharkiv oblast as fast as they did, I would've never predicted russians fleeing Crimea en masse etc, so I'd rather continue doing what I do to help my people survive this imperialistic genocidal invasion |
Excellent, Progjestet. In two years, we shall see whose predictions were closer to reality. I appreciate your effort.
As far as Ukraine/Kherson or Kharkiv oblast? Russia was not shy about broadcasting its goals. Russia prioritizes "demilitarizing Ukraine over temporal territorial gains." When it comes to Kherson, Russia claims that it would be too difficult to supply troops on the other side of the Dnieper River...so Russia vacated the Kherson position in less than a week, in order to install strategic defensive positions and kill zones.
How will we know if my version of reality is correct? If I'm correct, then after Russia demilitarizes Ukraine, Russia will permanently take the Kherson Oblast. If your version of reality is correct, ProgJester...then Kherson Oblast will be Ukrainian in five years. I know that's a long time, but reality doesn't cater to our whims.
Kharkiv. In early March of 2022, Turkey negotiated a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Boris Johnson flew to Ukraine and pressured Zelenski to back out of the peace deal. That suggests that Zelenski is controlled by NATO/America. Partly as a goodwill gesture, Russia pulled all its troops from Kharkiv. Was that the only reason Russia pulled their troops? No. Russia began the invasion, banking on the long shot that Ukraine would quickly capitulate. That did not happen. Russia did not have enough manpower to take Kharkiv. That said, I predict Russia will take Kharkiv.
Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 10 2023 at 11:42
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:43 |
Prog-jester wrote:
omphaloskepsis, with all these predictions and theories you're treating this war like a reality show or some funny game. What you should be doing tho is to start learning basic survival skills right now, because if Ukraine falls on Tuesday y'all be fighting russia, China, Iran and North Corea on Wednesday |
I'm sorry that you've had to deal with someone calling you a psychopath and others treating this as if it were some sort of game. Please know that you and your country have my support. I hope you and your family stay safe and I hope that Ukraine gets through this ordeal and that no more harm comes to her.
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i'm shopping for a new oil-cured sinus bag
that's a happy bag of lettuce
this car smells like cartilage
nothing beats a good video about fractions
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:47 |
omphaloskepsis wrote:
a goodwill gesture |
so they lost dozens of thousands in Bakhmut meat waves, but leaving THE WHOLE FREAKING OBLAST was like "yeah sure Ukraine can have it coz we're suddenly kind"? Lol, lmao even. There are no goodwill gestures in war - when the enemies are defeated they leave the position. But of course continue swallowing russian propaganda, which "a goodwill gesture" is definitely a part of
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:48 |
progaardvark wrote:
I'm sorry that you've had to deal with someone calling you a psychopath and others treating this as if it were some sort of game. Please know that you and your country have my support. I hope you and your family stay safe and I hope that Ukraine gets through this ordeal and that no more harm comes to her. |
thanks Ken! 
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:53 |
damn omphaloskepsis, you edit your posts faster than russia changes its warlords!
omphaloskepsis wrote:
In early March of 2022, Turkey negotiated a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine |
says who? You guessed it, russian side only. This feels like when a teenager returns to school after summer holidays bragging about losing virginity, but no one would support his claim lol
omphaloskepsis wrote:
I predict Russia will take Kharkiv. |
dude, again: they took 200+ square kms of emopty fields IN TWELVE MONTHS, how the heck will they take a 3-mln heavily fortified city??? Not gonna happen
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 11:57 |
Prog-jester wrote:
damn omphaloskepsis, you edit your posts faster than russia changes its warlords!
omphaloskepsis wrote:
In early March of 2022, Turkey negotiated a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine |
says who? You guessed it, russian side only. This feels like when a teenager returns to school after summer holidays bragging about losing virginity, but no one would support his claim lol
omphaloskepsis wrote:
I predict Russia will take Kharkiv. |
dude, again: they took 200+ square kms of emopty fields IN TWELVE MONTHS, how the heck will they take a 3-mln heavily fortified city??? Not gonna happen |
Says Turkey... https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/20/turkey-says-russia-ukraine-close-to-agreement#:~:text=Turkey%20has%20said%20Russia%20and%20Ukraine%20made%20progress,it%20of%20what%20he%20sees%20as%20dangerous%20nationalists.
Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 10 2023 at 11:58
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Prog-jester
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:06 |
hey, I can read! "Close to agreement" doesn't equal "Agreed to certain things"
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:06 |
Prog-jester wrote:
damn omphaloskepsis, you edit your posts faster than russia changes its warlords!
omphaloskepsis wrote:
In early March of 2022, Turkey negotiated a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine |
omphaloskepsis wrote:
I predict Russia will take Kharkiv. |
dude, again: they took 200+ square kms of emopty fields IN TWELVE MONTHS, how the heck will they take a 3-mln heavily fortified city??? Not gonna happen |
You made another prediction, ProgJester! You predict that Russia Will Not take Kharkiv. We shall see whose viewpoints jive with reality. I predict Russia will take Kharkiv.
You queried, "how the heck will they take a 3-mln heavily fortified city???" My answer? Without much of a fight. Because, Russia won't take Kharkiv until Ukraine runs out of men and weapons. Remember, Russia's goal is to demilitarize Ukraine. Once Ukraine runs out of men and weapons, Russia will leisurely take whatever territory they wish.
PS: What does "3-min" mean?
Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 10 2023 at 12:10
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:08 |
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Once Ukraine runs out of men and weapons, Russia will leisurely take whatever territory they wish |
this could happen in the future, unfortunately. Right now it's impossible
omphaloskepsis wrote:
PS: What does "3-min" mean? |
3 million ppl live there, including my band's drummer (he's in the army now)
Edited by Prog-jester - October 10 2023 at 12:13
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Easy Money
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:13 |
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Re Igor: I visited the Soviet Union back in the early 1980s, just curious, did you or your parents ever have the 'pleasure' of living under the iron thumb of the Soviets?
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:14 |
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Posted: October 10 2023 at 12:18 |
The amount of hogwash in this thread is infuriating, so on the off chance that some of you I'm responding to aren't just trolling:
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Crimea and four other Ukraine Oblasts
voted overwhelmingly to join Russia since 2014. |
Funny, since no opinion poll ever indicated that a majority in any of those oblasts (except Crimea, where polls differed) wanted to join Russia even in 2014; in Kherson that opinion was held by as little as 1% of people before 2022. I wonder what could explain the North Korean percentages who voted in favour of Russia then... maybe they like having death and destruction brought down upon them by an aggressive neighbour? Surely it couldn’t be that the results of an election with no independent monitors in a region under a hostile military occupation may have been tampered with, or that large amounts of people fled the violence and the Russian occupation, and those who stayed rightfully saw these referenda for the illegitimate shams they were and boycotted them, especially in Crimea and Sevastopol where the option of staying with Ukraine wasn’t even on the ballot and people had to choose between independence or joining Russia.
Sean Trane wrote:
But it was openly admitted that 95% of the population in Crimea was Russian still in 2014. Less so, for the four Oblasts, but still over 50% were. |
This doesn’t mean anything either. Zelenskyy himself is of Russian descent; do you think he’d rather be a Russian citizen? Do you think I would have welcomed a German invasion of the Netherlands because my grandmother was German?
omphaloskepsis wrote:
In 2014, an American/NATO-backed coup turned over
the democratically elected Ukrainian government. Dept of State-
Victoria Newland was recorded on a phone call deciding who would be the
next leader of Ukraine. |
Wrong. The phone call in question refers to a power sharing offer from Yanukovych in February 2014, which Yatsenyuk actually rejected at the time; so much for those US officials pulling the opposition’s strings. Yatsenyuk did end up becoming prime minister later, because the parliament (elected before the revolution) voted him in: he was after all the leader of the biggest opposition party and had been involved in national politics for almost 10 years by then; he was then democratically elected to that position later that year. Him simply being the guy whom the US state department happened to favour the most does not automatically make him a US puppet or the revolution that brought him to power a US coup.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Immediately, America armed Ukrainian attacks on the Dombass people. |
The USA began arming Ukraine after Russia had already annexed a sizeable portion of its territory, so that it could defend itself against Russian astroturf separatists. I'm not even speculating; look up the Surkov Leaks, which comprehensively sketch the Russian government's role in setting up the separatist regimes in the east and their duplicity in making it seem genuine (even though the first president of the Donetsk People's Republic was a straight-up Russian national from Moscow with ties to the FSB). Or don't; Putin has already admitted anyway that the Russian military has been involved in the Donbas since 2014, just like he admitted that the "little green men" occupying Crimea were actually Russian operatives all along despite claiming to have no involvement whatsoever.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
After Crimea voted to join Russia. Ukraine cut off all freshwater supplies to Crimea. |
And Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam, the reservoir of which happens to be Crimea’s main source of water, so we’ll call that one even.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Some
people don't think elections are valid if they disagree with the
winner. Hillary complained about the 2016 election. Trump complained
about 2020. It's legal for Hillary to complain. It's illegal for Trump
to complain. |
The difference: Hillary Clinton claimed that Trump was illegally helped by outside powers to sway public opinion in his favour, but never questioned the legitimacy of the election process itself (at most her team demanded a recount in a few states, which anyone is allowed to do; it happened, it upheld the original outcome and that was the end of it), whereas Trump incessantly spread unfounded claims about massive voter fraud, attempted to reject certified state electors who voted against him, attempted to coerce electoral officials into falsifying votes or making false claims about election fraud themselves, and when all that failed encouraged a horde of maniacs to storm the US Capitol to prevent the will of the people from being ratified.
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
Sure, you can keep blaming the Russians
exclusively, but from an outside perspective it seems like your
government, as well as many others, also deserve some of the blame for
failing to negotiate a peace agreement or at least a cease-fire. |
Putin outright rejected a peace offer early on in the invasion that would have involved a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, supposedly his main rationale for the invasion, and subsequent rounds of negotiation have not sparked much confidence in Russia's good faith, what with them violating the Black Sea grain deal multiple times and making ludicrous claims at the UN about Ukrainian bioweapons in the midst of peace talks.
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
When it comes to agreements, how about James Baker promising Gorbatchev in 1990 that NATO would not expand eastwards? |
That has nothing to do with the Budapest memorandum, and was never formally agreed upon in any treaty; if anything Baker only promised that the administration he represented would not pursue eastward expansion of NATO. Anyway, I'm sure you'll agree that accepting the pleas of other countries to be allowed into an alliance is of quite a different level compared to a military invasion of another country.
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
And in more recent times, how about the Minsk 2 accord, where Ukraine promised to lead the Donbass oblasts into independence? |
Wrong. Ukraine promised a higher level of autonomy for the Donbas and new regional elections to be monitored by them under OSCE supervision. The DPR and LPR signed the agreement and then violated it a few months later by announcing they would set up elections of their own without any supervision. Besides, Russia also promised to withdraw all its official and irregular fighters and they didn't exactly uphold that part of the bargain either.
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
And congratulations, you are the third person here to confuse "is" with "ought to be".
|
I don’t think anyone is confused by this; if anything you seem to be confused since elsewhere in this thread you’re rightfully speaking out against the atrocities committed by the US government around the world, yet when it comes to atrocities committed by the Russian government you suddenly frame it as an amoral fact of life. The real difference is that the people you’re arguing with believe that we should make an active effort to make the way things currently are more like how they ought to be, whereas you don’t really seem to care (except when it suits your argument apparently). That’s fine, but at least be honest about it.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Russia
doesn't want nukes a few hundred miles from Moscow. Russia won't stop
until they eliminate that threat. Is it a threat? Russia thinks so. |
We live in an era where intercontinental ballistic missiles could reach the other end of the world in less than an hour; placing them in Ukraine (hypothetically I might add) instead of Poland hardly matters, nor should merely having a NATO state border you since Russia already had five of those before 2022.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
It doesn't matter whether you or I disagree with
the Autumn 2022 vote referendums. According to Russian law, Putin has
no choice but to defend the four Oblasts to the end. |
Russian law is a joke; ask the average Russian governor or oil baron if they worry about the law when they embezzle millions into their Panamanian bank accounts or order independent journalists and politicians to be assassinated. Putin keeps throwing Russian and Ukrainian lives into the meat grinder every day because he wants to, not because he “has no choice”.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Since the attack on Nordstream, the German economy
has gone under its worst decline in recent memory. No more cheap
Russian energy for Germany. That's OK with America. The US wants
Germany dependent on America. |
A fate far worse than being dependent on Russia and having to bow to the whims of its geopolitical ambitions, I’m sure.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Poland is pulling support |
Correction: the Polish government announced that it would stop supplying arms to Ukraine because it’s election season and the ruling party wants to secure the votes of farmers who would be disadvantaged by cheaper grain from Ukraine entering the Polish market, but support for Ukraine is still overwhelmingly popular among the Polish people (97% of whom have a negative view of Russia). President Duda has already been forced to downplay his earlier statements since they're hurting his party's popularity. Poland also feels threatened by Wagner’s military exercises near its border in Belarus and overall has great relations with the US so it’s hard to see them embark on any big geopolitical shift any time soon.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
Slovakia is pulling support |
Only if Fico becomes prime minister, which isn’t set in stone yet. Besides, the Slovak government has admitted that it has already exhausted all arms that it could afford to freely supply to Ukraine so in purely material terms this won’t even make a difference.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
What were those goals?1. Free the Donbass |
I’m sure the people there are very happy with their newfound freedom now that their homes are destroyed, their possessions are looted and their children are abducted.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
3. Denatzify Ukraine |
Launching a full-scale military invasion and inflaming a nationalist awakening in the victimized Ukrainian people on top of deliberately flaring up ethnic tensions by pushing the narrative of “ethnic Russians” being diametrically opposed to the ethnic Ukrainian populace seems like a very bad way to achieve that, but okay. It should be noted that the word “fascism” in Russia is associated mainly with Nazi Germany and by extension with anything foreign or anti-Russian, hence why the people calling themselves “antifascists” in Russia happen to be the most nationalistic and conservative Putin fanboys. On that note I would also make a mention of the far-right elements within Putin’s own army but to be fair, he did murder Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, so I suppose he deserves at least a few points in the fight against fascism.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if Poland and Hungry take
sections of West Ukraine |
Do you honestly believe that Poland would be willing to definitively sour its relations with the west in that way and leave itself open as Russia's obvious next target of invasion? You have no idea what you're talking about.
omphaloskepsis wrote:
parts that used to be Hungry. |
Yeah, they were a lot hungrier in the 1930s.
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
These territories are officially part of Russia, as
the Russian parliament (the Duma) have decided. Remember: I'm not
saying this is a good thing, I'm just stating facts. |
Germany also formally declared that Poland was their territory. Surely you think it’s a good thing the world didn’t just accept that as a done deal, right?
MikeEnRegalia wrote:
But of course I forgot, only the Ukrainians
matter. And that's why Stepan Bandera is a national hero to you - after
all, the >100k people he had murdered were not Ukrainian either. |
He explicitly called Bandera a Nazi and a war criminal when you asked him, what more do you want from him? And what kind of question was that anyway? Were you hoping to bait him into expressing support for Bandera just so you could smear the cause his people are fighting and dying for? I really hope you don’t realize just how cold and callous you’re coming across, or how cheap it is for you to say things like “violence isn’t the answer”, “might makes right”, “c’est la vie” et cetera when it’s not your country being bombed or your friends and family being murdered.
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