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Topic ClosedRussia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern?

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Atavachron View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 01:28
Just saw Finland's president interviewed.  Now there's a thoughtful, decent man.

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 02:08
There is something I don't understand about the stationary convoy.  If it is only stuck because of logistical goof ups by the Russians, why wouldn't Ukraine be trying harder to attack them while they are stuck this way?  Is there something going on behind-the-scenes, an attempt by both sides to strike a deal?  Zelensky has been pleading with NATO to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine which is not going to happen.  Perhaps Ukraine is holding off until the Russian air force readies to blast down Kyiv at which they will rush to the table?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 02:37
As of February 2019,  Some 13,000 people have been killed, a quarter of them civilians, and as many as 30,000 wounded in the war in eastern Ukraine since it broke out in April 2014, the United Nations says.

The estimated toll includes more than 3,300 civilian deaths, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said in a document dated February 25...

https://www.rferl.org/a/death-toll-up-to-13-000-in-ukraine-conflict-says-un-rights-office/29791647.html
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 03:31
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Why hasn't the media reported about the Nazi battalion attacking the Donbas Ukraine non-stop since 2014. That's eight years of shelling East Ukrainian civilians. They're still there. Right now.

You can't possibly be this ignorant about facts. No wait. There have been elements of the Russian army in Eastern Ukraine since 2014 trying to destabilize the country, and offering financial and military support to separatists. You know, since 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea. 2014, when Ukrainians ousted the corrupt pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych and Putin got his narcissistic panties in a bunch. No five foot six inch man has tried so hard to be five foot seven than Vladdy Putin. 

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Why doesn't Biden sign a treaty with Putin that states- Ukraine will remain neutral in exchange for Russia leaving Ukraine? It's the obvious solution. If Putin refuses, than the entire world knows that Putin was lying. Call Putin's bluff.   Why won't Biden do it?  Compared to thousands upon thousand dying...What would it hurt for Ukraine to be neutral, free, and ALIVE.  Inflation would slow to historically normal levels.  

"My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep." -- Neville Chamberlain, 30 September, 1938

 "In the depths of that dusty soul, there is nothing but abject surrender." -- Winston Churchill, on Neville Chamberlain

You mean you are completely oblivious to Putin already being a liar? You weren't aware that the "entire world" already knows Putin is a liar? The obvious solution is Russians eliminating Putin themselves. No other country has any plans on invading Russia. No one is interested in interfering with Russian sovereignty. Latvia and Lithuania aren't interested in carving out pro-Latvian or pro-Lithuanian sections of Russia a la Hitler or Putin. No one is poisoning Russian dissidents and political opponents with Novichok or plutonium but Putin. No one is stealing billions upon billions of dollars from the Russian people but Putin and his oligarch cronies. 

As far as the price of oil, it's time to eliminate the need for gas. Buy electric. Ford, GM and Mercedes are already phasing out gas-powered engines. By 2035 most civilized countries will have eliminated new combustion engines as a mode of transportation. And nothing ends the inexplicable vagaries, the inveterate gouging and geopolitical instabilities of the price of oil like switching to solar and wind power.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 03:38

Russia reports cease-fire in 2 Ukraine areas for evacuations


https://www.yahoo.com/news/reports-russia-observe-ceasefire-2-070133818.html
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 05:13
I think the economic war and information war the West is having with Russia will spill over to the whole world and might actually eventually result a World War. With these sanctions and the information war that is happening is very reminiscent of the start of a wider armed conflict that will most likely drag in the West and Russia, and eventually, China.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 05:29
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Russia reports cease-fire in 2 Ukraine areas for evacuations


https://www.yahoo.com/news/reports-russia-observe-ceasefire-2-070133818.html

It seems that the Russians - as usual - do not keep their promises:
an evacuation of civilians planned for Saturday had been postponed as Russian forces encircling the city were not respecting an agreed ceasefire (The Guardian)

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 05:38
Gerald Ford's prescience was uncanny as far back as 1976:
‘There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.’





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Edited by ExittheLemming - March 05 2022 at 05:41
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 05:54

The razamataz is a pain in the bum
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 06:32
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Why doesn't Biden sign a treaty with Putin that states- Ukraine will remain neutral in exchange for Russia leaving Ukraine?

What's this colonial attitude? Ukraine is a sovereign country; Biden cannot sign anything for them. It is not up to Biden, nor up to Putin to decide what Ukraine should do. It is up to Ukraine to apply for a NATO membership (it is up to NATO to accept or not, and the USA will just be one of the voters in that), as it is up to Ukraine to apply for a EU membership (where it is up to EU to accept or not).

The razamataz is a pain in the bum
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 06:35
@ Suitkees

You say that the Russians, as usual, don't keep their promises.

But in this tragedy, the original sin is that the US didn't keep their promise about the Nato: they enlarged it to the Est Europe.

If we don't consider this fact, we can't understand the situation in Ukraine.

This fact does not justify the war but it's important.
Every solution should start from that original sin.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 06:45
Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Why doesn't Biden sign a treaty with Putin that states- Ukraine will remain neutral in exchange for Russia leaving Ukraine?

What's this colonial attitude? Ukraine is a sovereign country; Biden cannot sign anything for them. It is not up to Biden, nor up to Putin to decide what Ukraine should do. It is up to Ukraine to apply for a NATO membership (it is up to NATO to accept or not, and the USA will just be one of the voters in that), as it is up to Ukraine to apply for a EU membership (where it is up to EU to accept or not).


Biden, instead, can decide to stop the enlarging of the Nato. This is exactly the problem: the Us want to enlarge the Nato to Ukraine Sweden and Finland.
And even the European country should ask to stop the enlarging of the Nato.

In this way, the logic of war prevails. Nato is an old tool of the Cold War born to make wars.

The US have interest in maintaining the Nato because in this way the European countries are similar to their coloniee and in this way the EU will never got his own military force and will never have his own international politics.

But the European counties should think of their interests, and their interests are different from the Americans ones. For example, the first interest of an European should be live in peace with the Russia.
And if you want to live in peace, you give your hand, you don't hide yourself behind the mask of a war machine like Nato.
Amos Goldberg (professor of Genocide Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem): Yes, it's genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 06:57
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

There is something I don't understand about the stationary convoy.  If it is only stuck because of logistical goof ups by the Russians, why wouldn't Ukraine be trying harder to attack them while they are stuck this way?  Is there something going on behind-the-scenes, an attempt by both sides to strike a deal?  Zelensky has been pleading with NATO to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine which is not going to happen.  Perhaps Ukraine is holding off until the Russian air force readies to blast down Kyiv at which they will rush to the table?

obviously hard to say Madan...  inforamtion is limited obviously but there have been reports of fuel shortages... as well as reports of attacks upon it as well as drone footage of attacks upon it.

The most likely reason might be it has simply been stopped by Ukrainian forces.  The reason for such a long miles long column is that while that was the shortest path for Russian forces to reach Kjiv the terrain in that region sort of creates a funnel rather than a wide front which makes the task of stopping a Russian advance much more manageable .. especially as it stands to figure that Ukraine would have put its most experienced and capable forces there to defend its capital.

That point of stoppage may well be here... a town called Borodyanka.


As far as the Russian air force..  it does seem Russia has not established control of the sky.. which probably explains why Zelenskyy has been so adamant on calling for NATO to intervene and create a no fly zone. Eventually the Russians will .. you would think...  establish control of the sky and make a defense of Ukraine far more challenging. 

anyhow...   what are your thoughts Madan on the Chinese in all this.  The Russians need the Chinese more than the Chinese need Russia... and China even if were so inclined really doesn't seem to be the position economically to help Russia.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 06:59
So Lorenzo you're going to tell the Polish, Moldavian, Lithuanian etc. people what's good for them? You think they (those who are NATO-members now) got it wrong in the nineties and would feel safer now without NATO and hardly any weapons and Putin's Russia as their neighbour, i.e., similar to the situation in which Ukraine is now? I'd be surprised if many of them agreed...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 07:00
By the way good to have you back raff & micky!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 07:09
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

So Lorenzo you're going to tell the Polish, Moldavian, Lithuanian etc. people what's good for them? You think they (those who are NATO-members now) got it wrong in the nineties and would feel safer now without NATO and hardly any weapons and Putin's Russia as their neighbour, i.e., similar to the situation in which Ukraine is now? I'd be surprised if many of them agreed...
Please take a look at the No Fly Zone thread for more insight on who the real evil organization really is....Shocked
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 07:24
@Lorenzo: I agree with most of the historical facts you present, but not necessarily with the way you present them. I'll try to clarify my point of view on some of the points raised.

First, when I say "Russians - as usual - do not keep their promises", with "Russians" I mean of course their political representatives (not the whole population).

Then, the USA are maybe willing to expand NATO to other countries, it is up to those countries to apply or not, not up to the USA. Sweden and Finland were not willing to join NATO. Russia's invasion of Ukraine may change their stance on that.

I agree with you that NATO is a remnant of the Cold War, but this Cold War has been revived by Putin, not by NATO. Expanding NATO membership is not an attack on any country whatsoever. I don't want to fall into the trap that Putin's narrative has opened for everyone: NATO is not an attack alliance but a defence alliance. Every sovereign country has the right to join that alliance (but it is up to NATO to accept or not the application).
Just recently, Macron considered NATO brain dead. I think he was quite right at the moment he said this because the necessity of the alliance could be questioned, as well as the cohesion between its members (especially Turkey put a major strain on NATO's cohesiveness, recently). Again: Putin has put NATO's "reason-to-be" on the foreground again.

I don't buy the "broken promises" narrative, because it is denying the sovereignty of countries and it is just used as a pretext to attack. Historically, these promises may have been made, but leaders come and go, situations change, and everybody knows that especially these kind of things depend on power plays, strategy and opportunities. NATO members have a guarantee that they have allies when attacked. None of the NATO countries ever had the project to attack Russia. NATO is only a threat when you attack a NATO country. Putin is just using NATO as a pretext to expand his power; he wasn't under attack and would never have been...

To cut it short: the "original sin" lies not at NATO, but completely at Putin's actions to attack sovereign countries (Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine...).

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 07:42
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

So Lorenzo you're going to tell the Polish, Moldavian, Lithuanian etc. people what's good for them? You think they (those who are NATO-members now) got it wrong in the nineties and would feel safer now without NATO and hardly any weapons and Putin's Russia as their neighbour, i.e., similar to the situation in which Ukraine is now? I'd be surprised if many of them agreed...

I understand the desire of the states of Eastern Europe (formerly the Warsaw Pact) to join NATO. They were, in general, who have rebelled against Soviet hegemony, who are fiercely nationalists (this can also be seen from migrant policies) and who have a strong anti-Russian hatred.
That said, they are not the ones who decide whether to join NATO (and neither are they who decide whether to join the EU). They can only ask, but accepting them is a political choice of the USA.

Now, US policy has been with Reagan a policy of peace with Gorbachev, the two presidents became friends, signed important disarmament pacts together, and above all REAGAN ENSURED THAT THE US WOULD NEVER EXPAND WITH NATO UNTIL STATES OF EASTERN EUROPE.

So, I would like to understand: how can you pretend not to see that the US HAS DECEIVED RUSSIA? THEY PROVE TO BE FAKE FRIENDS, THEN STAB IT IN THE SHOULDERS EXPANDING THEIR WAR MACHINE TO THE RUSSIAN BORDERS? HOW CAN YOU NOT REALIZE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS BETRAYAL?

If you want peace with Russia, you must consider that Russau
1) has flaked off
2) lost her military allies of the Warsaw Pact
and who is therefore in a position of OBJECTIVE MILITARY, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC WEAKNESS,
you start DISMANTLING NATO, NOT ENHANCING IT.

If, on the other hand, you pursue a logic of war, you expand it.

These things, I repeat, have been saying for 20 years by political analysts, historians and diplomatic agents, both right and left, experts on NATO and Russia, such as Sergio Romano, who for 20 years has warned that this expansion of NATO to the east is OBJECTIVELY a declaration of war on Russia.

Putin's Russia was content with the two buffer states: BELARUS AND UKRAINE, as his defense, but things changed with the 2014 anti-Russian coup.

Even Russia's intervention in Syria, in favor of the Assad regime, was due to the fact that if Russia had lost its Syrian ally, she would no longer have outlets on the Mediterranean, and therefore would have been even more isolated.

All this seems to me for all to see and cannot be overshadowed.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 08:02
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

These things, I repeat, have been saying for 20 years by political analysts, historians and diplomatic agents, both right and left, experts on NATO and Russia, such as Sergio Romano, who for 20 years has warned that this expansion of NATO to the east is OBJECTIVELY a declaration of war on Russia.

Really? I don't know Sergio Romano at all, but to declare that NATO's expansion is "objectively" (no need to shout, btw) a declaration of war sounds to me not "objective" at all but very ideologically coloured.
I even dare to say that NATO has probably been more lucid about Putin's intentions than any other country or the EU: Putin has been investing in nuclear arms, weapons and attack systems since the decades he is in power, to the expense of his own population. And, with the present attack on Ukraine and the past attacks on Chechnya and Georgia, I don't think Putin was/is defending himself against NATO. He is using the NATO narrative as a pretext to fulfill the program he has defined all by himself.


Edited by suitkees - March 05 2022 at 08:04

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2022 at 08:09
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

anyhow...   what are your thoughts Madan on the Chinese in all this.  The Russians need the Chinese more than the Chinese need Russia... and China even if were so inclined really doesn't seem to be the position economically to help Russia.

China is being awfully quiet about this.  Yes, they do need Russia strategically.  But they also need the Western market to export their enormous production. They can't afford Western sanctions.  Nor is the US particularly keen as of now to antagonize them.  They are probably looking to decouple China at least a little from Russia.  The Emirates are starting to sing a pro-US tune too now, in spite of the inroads Russia and China had made with them in recent years.  
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