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Topic ClosedRussia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern?

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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 13:42
Originally posted by Shadowyzard Shadowyzard wrote:

Originally posted by Mirakaze Mirakaze wrote:

and it's not like anyone in smaller countries "has to watch" films like Home Alone during Christmas anyway

Well, no one "threatened" us to watch those films (cartoons etc. too) in Turkey, but it is a deep issue. Quite a sinister one. Like child abuse. I'd rather not get further on this. Plus, I treasure those times. You know... Without the American cultural domination here, life would be different. And no one can know if for the better or worse. Smile

That's why censorship is always wrong. Nobody is forcing anyone to listen to political or medical opinions or watch a movie.  Unless...




Edited by omphaloskepsis - January 20 2022 at 13:46
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 13:51
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Originally posted by Shadowyzard Shadowyzard wrote:

Originally posted by Mirakaze Mirakaze wrote:

and it's not like anyone in smaller countries "has to watch" films like Home Alone during Christmas anyway

Well, no one "threatened" us to watch those films (cartoons etc. too) in Turkey, but it is a deep issue. Quite a sinister one. Like child abuse. I'd rather not get further on this. Plus, I treasure those times. You know... Without the American cultural domination here, life would be different. And no one can know if for the better or worse. Smile

That's why censorship is always wrong. Nobody is forcing anyone to listen to political or medical opinions or watch a movie.  Unless...



Well, you also apply censorship if not that oftenly. You censored a sports event's opening show took place in Russia claiming that "the mascots are demonic". Believe me, compared to the American diablery we've been exposed to, they were actually angelic. As I said this is a deep issue. You, just like any other American that I talked to about this matter, would have difficulty in understanding this. "Free choice" is not that simple in the depths of human psychology.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 13:59

"Censorship is telling a man he can't have a steak just because a baby can't chew it." - Mark Twain


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 14:03
^ I'm against all kinds of censorsip for the cultural products aimed at the adult audience.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 14:43
Freedom of speech is a luxury of the bourgeoisie.
"Our freedom of speech is freedom or death" - Public Enemy


Edited by Easy Money - January 20 2022 at 14:55
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 15:23
Originally posted by Mirakaze Mirakaze wrote:


Originally posted by Woon Deadn Woon Deadn wrote:

Meanwhile, the USSR also had its OWN kind of Anne Frank, a Russian young girl that lost all of her family during the Siege of Leningrad... An average modern foreigner knows nothing about the siege, and certainly, knows extremely nothing about Tanya Savicheva. Her diary was not that informative, it was just a few sheets with a few words on each. Nevertheless, it was a no less powerful document... 

I was not aware of this girl's existence until now but I felt legitimately emotionally gripped upon reading this page. Thank you for sharing it. I am a strong believer in universal rights and values across humanity and if anything, stories like Tanya's should help remind us of our similarities to ordinary people across arbitrary borderlines in spite of how our governments may attempt dehumanize them in times of conflict.
 

Absolutely! Thank you for replying! 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 16:21

That's why censorship is always wrong. Nobody is forcing anyone to listen to political or medical opinions or watch a movie.  Unless...


[/QUOTE]
Well, you also apply censorship if not that oftenly. You censored a sports event's opening show took place in Russia claiming that "the mascots are demonic". Believe me, compared to the American diablery we've been exposed to, they were actually angelic. As I said this is a deep issue. You, just like any other American that I talked to about this matter, would have difficulty in understanding this. "Free choice" is not that simple in the depths of human psychology.[/QUOTE]


 

 I did not censor anything. I don't care if the mascots are demonic or goody-good-gumdrops. Let them go uncensored. I hate American censorship.  I deplore American censorship. 

Thanks for introducing me to the word- "diablery". What a cool word. I like it!


Edited by omphaloskepsis - January 20 2022 at 16:23
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 01:47
^ You're welcome (to HellEvil Smile).

"You" stands for "the Americans" there. I sometimes say "we" to mean "the Turks" also.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 13:37
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 14:55
^ I'm a bit guilty of veering the topic into the American domains unrelated to the discussion, sorry for that. I'm definitely not afraid of the Americans, and I generally get on with them quite well. So, God bless Ame... Hey, I'm not religious! Tongue
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 18:18
Latest diplomatic Ukraine/Russia/USA/NATO news as seen through the eyes of the BBC 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60088614



US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hopped on a plane to Europe this week to do three things.

He wanted to assure Ukraine the US would support it in the face of Russian military threats; rally support among US allies for a unified, aggressive response if needed; and sit down with his Russian counterpart to find a diplomatic solution - or at least show the US was not giving up on diplomacy.

It was clearly a hastily-arranged trip.

US officials had only two days' notice to prepare a day full of meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Foreign Secretary Dmytro Kuleba, as well as with concerned staff at the US embassy.

Throughout, Mr Blinken hammered the same message: the US stood by Ukraine.

Russia had a stark choice between "diplomacy and dialogue" on one hand and "conflict and consequences" on the other, he said. By the end of that long first day, it seemed like the US was making progress.


Then President Joe Biden did a rhetorical belly-flop in the middle of the diplomatic pool overnight.


During a nearly two-hour press conference, he said the US would surely argue with its allies over how to respond to a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine - and that he thought it was probable that Russia would "go in" to Ukraine.

Those views left heads nodding in foreign policy circles. But when it comes to diplomacy, some truths are best left unsaid.

Quad goals

The next day, Mr Blinken was meeting US "quad" allies from Germany, the UK and France in Berlin. But he had to spend most of the day clarifying Mr Biden's comments instead of polishing the appearance of allied unity in the face of Russian intransigence.

Meanwhile, back in Ukraine, President Zelensky was firing off snarky tweets, and other government officials fretted that Mr Biden had given a "green light" to a Russian invasion.

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.View original tweet on Twitter

During a joint press conference with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, both diplomats talked up the strength of the yet-to-be-detailed sanctions that loomed if Russia attacked. Neither, however, seemed interested in discussing whether suspending the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany was a possibility.

Energy sanctions would hit Russia's national pocketbook the hardest, but seem unlikely. Europe relies on Russian natural gas and Mr Biden is politically sensitive to rising petrol prices in the US.

The rest of "the quad" has issues, too.

France's Emmanuel Macron seems intent on pursuing a separate diplomatic strategy with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Plane-spotters were quick to note the longer route around France and Germany that British cargo flights had to take to bring short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine this week.

The US and its allies were talking a good game, but the Russians had to be at least somewhat encouraged by the way the week was playing out.


The bilateral meeting between Mr Blinken and Russia's Sergei Lavrov on Friday was a spectacle.

At the historic President Wilson hotel on the banks of a wind-swept Lake Geneva in Switzerland, Russian and American reporters jostled for position.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in an attempt to evade the media crush, sought refuge behind a coat rack. Press Secretary Maria Zakharova complained that she couldn't have a casual conversation with reporters who kept trying to record her on their mobile phones.

Eventually Mr Lavrov and Mr Blinken made opening remarks, seated across from each other at two long sets of tables adorned with pink and green bouquets.

Mr Lavrov said he hoped for "concrete answers to our concrete proposals" - including demands that Nato will never expand to former Soviet nations like Ukraine. Mr Blinken, for his part, repeated that Russian aggression would prompt a "united, swift, and severe response" from the US and its allies.

After the meeting, both sides said little progress had been made - but little had been expected.

Mr Lavrov said Russia had no plans to invade Ukraine, despite amassing more than 100,000 troops on its borders. Mr Blinken said he stood by Nato's "open door" policy of expansion eligibility for all European nations and promised to provide a written response to Russia's "concerns" next week.

Asked if the US would consider using its military to defend Ukraine, he said America was committed to protecting its Nato allies.

But Ukraine is not a member of Nato - something Ukrainian officials are painfully aware of.

A Russian rout?

Both sides promised to keep the dialogue going and left open the possibility of a future meeting between Mr Biden and Mr Putin.

But in a way, the spectacle is already a win for Russia, regardless of how the crisis is resolved. This is a diplomatic conflict of Russia's making.

Their movements have prompted a week of furious activity on the part of the Americans and their allies at a time when the US would much rather be focusing on what it views as an era-defining competition with an ascendant China.

Instead, the high-stakes negotiations in Geneva hearken back to a time decades past: Russia is, for the moment, again the centre of global attention.

Mr Blinken suggested as much in a speech in Berlin on Thursday afternoon.

After detailing what he viewed as the long history of Russian deceit and broken promises, he said it sometimes seemed like Russia wanted to return to the days of the Cold War.

"We hope not," he said. "But if [Vladimir Putin] chooses to do so, he'll be met with the same determination, the same unity that past generations of leaders and citizens brought to bear to advance peace, to advance freedom, to advance human dignity across Europe and around the world."


As he heads back to Washington, it's hard to say what, if anything, has changed in three days of crisis diplomacy.

Both sides are still talking, but talk without results only goes so far.

Russia could use the US's written response next week as pretext for further escalation. In Ukraine, US diplomats don't know what to expect - more cyber-warfare, a "minor incursion" or tens of thousands of Russian troops pouring into the country from three sides and paratroopers landing in Kyiv.

Anything, they say, is possible.

The US seems determined to try to keep the Russians talking until the spring rains make tank invasion impractical. As for what Russia wants, both Mr Blinken and Mr Biden have been consistent in their conclusion: it ultimately depends on what's going on in Mr Putin's head.





Edited by omphaloskepsis - January 21 2022 at 18:22
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2022 at 08:18
As far as I can feel, Russia is sort of trolling and hyping. Nothing else. There are hues, nuances, hints that are very clear to the former Soviet citizens if they have not been mutilated by the post-Soviet and especially Euromaidan propaganda. As one of such "unmutilated" former Soviet citizens, born as a Soviet Ukrainian myself, I can repeat that I see nothing more than a trolling, hyping and playing the big boss in current Russian activities. The "true", "sane" former Soviet people which are tens of millions over here, in the post-Soviet territories, see the situation clearly. Certainly, there is always like 1 per cent of uncertainty, but it's just like 1 per cent.  

Again, by true and sane I do not quite mean the Communists or pro-Communist people. The USSR existed for 69 years (1922-1991), it was the size of the USA and Canada combined, more than ten time zones, more than a hundred ethnicities, jungle-like forests, Siberia, subtropical parts, the Karakum desert in Soviet Turkmenistan. It is even purely statistically, experience-wise, commonsense-wise impossible that pretty NOTHING positive has ever been achieved, occurred over there... Even feces contain vitamins and minerals, not to mention that carbamide, the component of urine, even went as far as to be included in some toothpastes. 



As I have already told here, certainly, the USSR=the Soviet Union treated many strata of its own people bad. The USSR has effectively killed agriculture by its collective farms, punishment of prosperous peasants in the 1930s and so on. You could not be openly religious in the USSR, especially if you wanted to make a career, to become an authority of any rank. Lines for chocolate candies or some imported goods did not make your life easier. Dentistry used anesthetics exclusively for extraction of teeth, nerves were usually killed without any anesthetics... Official state propaganda had not changed since the 1950s or 1960s, the state could not talk to its citizens in modern day concepts, in contemporary language. I have never said that life in the USSR was heavenly. 

However, the USSR created such a phenomenon as the Soviet urban middle class, working class intelligentsia. Let's take my late father (RIP) for an example. He was born to a rather poor peasant family in a small village not so far from Lviv aka Lvov (Leo-burg, if you like) in 1952. If his region had not been joined to the rest of the Soviet Ukraine by Stalin, most likely he as the justice-loving brave Aries man and the sincere patriot of Ukraine would have become a member of anti-Polish Ukrainian nationalist movement at some moment or another, there's a chance he would have been arrested and/or killed by the Polish power for his potential protest activities. Instead he finished high school in his native village, moved to Lviv, entered the Lviv Polytechnic Institute for free, then became an engineer, earned for his job 130 rubles a month while his parents combined earned 30 at the collective farm. He sent them almost all of his salary for months, they built themselves a new private house in their village. The collective farm, the state also helped a lot with materials and money for the house. 
My father loved making photos, he bought all the necessary equipment to print black-and-white photos at home. He made hundreds of photos, printed them himself. He collected us a home library of more than 3,000 books. He collected nearly 100 kilograms of newspapers and magazines at our apartment. He bought a gigantic 3-volume Ukrainian Soviet Encyclopedic Vocabulary (thousands of pages of small font) which cost less than 10 rubles. We had Wikipedia offline at home since early eighties, thus. He liked creating and solving crosswords of various kinds. This is what the Soviet power made out of a poor village boy that had a WC in the barn right beside the bull and the hens. When my father finished a school in his village, the school library gifted him the book he liked most of all, about different kinds of sports, sport games. Among other things, the book mentioned croquet, cricket, lacrosse and said a few words about Joe DiMaggio that was mistakenly named Joe Di Maccio, though. In the 1960s such books were available at the Soviet village libraries and although such books were very popular among the schoolchildren, libraries were able to gift them to the children the librarians liked, the prices were miserable, the numbers of printed copies were stellar... Once when my father went on a working trip, while waiting for his train he bought at the station an unnoticeable paperback book printed on a poor quality newspaper type of paper. It cost him like half a ruble - it appeared to be a full-scale encyclopedia of soccer, all lineups, scores, World Cups' statistics, tons of curious soccer-related facts! Judging by its poor cover he was going to read it for an hour and then use as a napkin or a toilet paper during the trip on a train - instead that book became one of his favourite ones. This was also the Soviet Union - not only the country of Stalin and Gulag - the country where ordinary engineers printed hundreds of photos at home and collected thousands of books. And, by the way, I have first seen my father dead drunk, puking, etc, in December 1997, 6 years after the end of the USSR, he and his colleagues at the Soviet factory were sober, intelligent, polite people. Always smiling, always helpful, always friendly. 

When my father was at the hospital in the intensive care department in 2012, my mother visited him and he told her he was afraid doctors would move him to another department of the hospital and my mother would not find him and be worrying about it. He had a terrible pneumonia or the kind, his lungs were on the edge of extinction, he could barely speak because of absence of saliva - however, he was afraid of upsetting his wife. While such a way of thinking should be attributed to his personal mentality, to his West-Ukrainian roots - such a behaviour was also very Soviet, stereotypically Soviet for us.

Humanization always makes a picture more versatile. If now, after all of that written text I will say that Putin was born in the same year as my father - let's agree, the chances of Putin invading Ukraine probably got lowered in your eyes, right? If you, like many of the former Soviet citizens, though, believe there was completely nothing positive in the existence of the largest country in the world that lasted for almost 70 years, then, certainly, you may believe in Russian invasion. Of course, there's always a factor of unpredictability, Putin gets older year by year, who knows what my father would have acted like had he been alive in 2022, after all. 

Anyway, I find that invasion totally impossible. I have an impression, Russian authorities laugh at such worldwide panic hysterically when the cameras are off. They are trolling and hyping, trying to gain some benefits of it. 


Edited by Woon Deadn - January 26 2022 at 06:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 04:41
I may describe my view in a clearer way: for an average westerner as well as many post-Soviet people brainwashed by post-Soviet anti-Russian narratives, Russia and all its leaders are unpredictable, wild, irrational people. For such people, Lenin came out from nowhere, Stalin came out of nowhere, et al. 

Yet there are factual observations. The Nobel Prize winner, Belarusian writer Svetlana Alexievich once said in an interview that under Putin Russia started cultivating the nostalgia for the USSR, for example - she said - under Putin there were filmed numerous "Old Songs About Main Things" TV shows. That's what said the Nobel Prize winner. Wikipedia, however, says that the TV project intended for New Year's Eve broadcasting, Old Songs About Main Things, consisted of four episodes. The first one was shot in 1995, the last one - in 2000. Putin came to power in 2000. So, one may rather say that under him, that project ceased to exist... That shows how credible Ms Alexievich's words should be... 
More to say, that project was originated, planned, designed by an openly anti-Soviet Russian journalist Leonid Parfenov (in times of Putin he would also become anti-Putin). Four years have passed since the dissolution of the USSR - the former Soviet people had already had a nostalgia for the Soviet arts, Soviet songs, Soviet movies. Even if they hated the Soviet regime, as such. 

As I've already told here, the USSR made a highly intellectually powerful urban middle class of engineers. Many post-Soviet citizens kindly remember them and their lifestyle, their traits and quirks. Here's for example, an episode about a son of the Soviet engineer and his definitely old-fashioned father, from the modern day TV comedy show. You may see how resonant the episode was with the audience. People laugh at those times - but with kindness and subtle shades of warm nostalgia. It's in Russian, but may be interesting quite visually: 




What I was and am going to prove is that people generally saw a reason, reasons, senses in the Soviet existence. People saw how it all worked and why. The USSR was not anyhow unpredictable. As is the post-Soviet Russia. Honestly, I can't understand exactly why those Russian troops have gathered near the Ukrainian border. Most likely, to divert attention of the Russians from domestic problems for some time. But what is very clear to me is that those troops are not going to attack anyone. Because I certainly know, feel how it all works in the USSR and the post-Soviet space. I feel the Russian Empire, I have a sense of it and its activities. It's just that. I don't have a sense for English articles - so I sometimes put all the's, sometimes all a's, sometimes omit both of them. But where I have a sense, I do have it. Certainly, there are many post-Soviet people who have muffled, silenced that sense they had once had. And the foreigners naturally did not have it, en masse. 

If you were born in the USSR, if you lived there and was smart enough, you certainly see what and how Russia does. You also know what it isn't going to do.


Edited by Woon Deadn - January 24 2022 at 04:44
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 08:07
US orders non essential embassy staff and families to leave Kiev.

US to deploy 5000 more troops to eastern Europe.

Russia planning live fire drills off west coast of Ireland.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 08:30
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

US orders non essential embassy staff and families to leave Kiev.

US to deploy 5000 more troops to eastern Europe.

Russia planning live fire drills off west coast of Ireland.

I firmly, believe, like 95% of all conflicts between human beings might have been resolved, solved, hushed, whatever in a week, had the sides of the conflict wanted to speak to each other and were able to understand each other's past and present state of mind. At least, I, being neither a politician nor a paid state-assisted state-sponsored writer, try my best to explain some mindset frames, some glimpses of the Soviet and modern Russian reality.

There will be no invasion. There will be showing muscles to each other, showing off, staging a geopolitical theatre play. Likewise, neither the USSR nor the USA were going to start Third World War - at least, in the 1970s-1980s. Secret services and militaries on both sides reported to their country's politicians that the other side was going to fight. Secret services and armies wanted more money from the state budget. 

If the US really orders the evacuation sort of, it sounds stupid. Either they want to play their own theatre play, or they really do not understand that Russia stages a theatre play, a bluff play. In any case, neither sides really have an idea of the other's mindset. 

Are some occasional provocations, occasional ignition possible? Yes! But both sides are wise enough to not start anything massive, anything nuclear-powered. They will make some noise, frighten each other verbally (and physically - by re-locating the troops), and that's how it all will end. Believe me. 

As one funny Soviet 1970s' song sang in Russian, "Do not spoil your nerves for nothing, life is like a zebra, there's a black color, then the white one comes, that's the whole secret": 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 08:43
Originally posted by Woon Deadn Woon Deadn wrote:

Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

US orders non essential embassy staff and families to leave Kiev.

US to deploy 5000 more troops to eastern Europe.

Russia planning live fire drills off west coast of Ireland.


I firmly, believe, like 95% of all conflicts between human beings might have been resolved, solved, hushed, whatever in a week, had the sides of the conflict wanted to speak to each other and were able to understand each other's past and present state of mind. At least, I, being neither a politician nor a paid state-assisted state-sponsored writer, try my best to explain some mindset frames, some glimpses of the Soviet and modern Russian reality.

There will be no invasion. There will be showing muscles to each other, showing off, staging a geopolitical theatre play. Likewise, neither the USSR nor the USA were going to start Third World War - at least, in the 1970s-1980s. Secret services and militaries on both sides reported to their country's politicians that the other side was going to fight. Secret services and armies wanted more money from the state budget. 

If the US really orders the evacuation sort of, it sounds stupid. Either they want to play their own theatre play, or they really do not understand that Russia stages a theatre play, a bluff play. In any case, neither sides really have an idea of the other's mindset. 

Are some occasional provocations, occasional ignition possible? Yes! But both sides are wise enough to not start anything massive, anything nuclear-powered. They will make some noise, frighten each other verbally (and physically - by re-locating the troops), and that's how it all will end. Believe me. 

As one funny Soviet 1970s' song sang in Russian, "Do not spoil your nerves for nothing, life is like a zebra, there's a black color, then the white one comes, that's the whole secret": 




I certainly hope it doesn't go the way many are saying it will.

Clearly you're better placed to comment on the Zeitgeist in Ukraine right now, and have a better understanding of the historical relationship between your country and Russia, than commentators like myself.

As I see it, the risk of escalation - with or without invasion, in fact - is very high, due to the ramping up of 'war games' and the bolstering of forces by Russia and NATO, across the whole region, in a show of muscle flexing, as you put it. It's this that can lead to dangerous miscalculation. I'm sure neither side wants a war, but unless the west makes concessions to Moscow, Putin will have to do 'something' even if not a full on invasion (for which he would clearly need more than 120K troops anyway) But, if he does nothing, his presidency is weakened and undermined, and he appears the type to not allow that to happen.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 09:10
Will Biden start a war to distract from historically low poll numbers, high inflation, and vaccine mandates?  I hope not. 
However, Biden's son Hunter is beholden to Ukraine. I won't wash that dirty laundry, but...

I agree with Woon. Russia will not start a war.  In fact, Ukraine officials expressed dismay at UK and USA for pulling out Embassy personnel. Ukraine officials do NOT believe Russia will attack.  However, Biden's America might attack. America habitually spoils Russia and China's Olympic years. Here we go again?  I hope not. 

That said, France and Germany may not support a war with Russia.  If you read the BBC article I posted, you'll notice- 

"France's Emmanuel Macron seems intent on pursuing a separate diplomatic strategy with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Plane-spotters were quick to note the longer route around France and Germany that British cargo flights had to take to bring short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine this week."

Germany and France did not allow British cargo flights (carrying anti-tank missiles)  to fly over their airspace.  Why? France and Germany need Russian gas and oil. If America plays World Police, that guarantees American will be perpetually at war.  The Never Ending War. As an American, I wish our government would solve America's problems...not everybody else's.  The Democrats are in power in House and Senate. Democrats  promised $10,000 Student Loan forgiveness, Medicare for All, and $15 minimum Wage.  The Democrats won't even let those issues go to a Vote in the House. Got to go through the House to reach the Senate.  Will the House and Senate support a war?  I hope not.

If the Eagle pokes the Bear don't be surprised if the Dragon coils around Taiwan. 


Edited by omphaloskepsis - January 25 2022 at 14:33
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 10:15
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

 
I certainly hope it doesn't go the way many are saying it will.

Clearly you're better placed to comment on the Zeitgeist in Ukraine right now, and have a better understanding of the historical relationship between your country and Russia, than commentators like myself.

As I see it, the risk of escalation - with or without invasion, in fact - is very high, due to the ramping up of 'war games' and the bolstering of forces by Russia and NATO, across the whole region, in a show of muscle flexing, as you put it. It's this that can lead to dangerous miscalculation. I'm sure neither side wants a war, but unless the west makes concessions to Moscow, Putin will have to do 'something' even if not a full on invasion (for which he would clearly need more than 120K troops anyway) But, if he does nothing, his presidency is weakened and undermined, and he appears the type to not allow that to happen.

In the current Ukraine, there are two ways of conscious thinking: one group of people (likely, a half of the population) think that Ukraine should build from scratch its own identity, its own culture, totally own, totally separate from anything Russia-related, USSR-related. Another group (likely, one third of the population) do not see any reason in building something from scratch when there's an already well-established Russian imperial identity, culture, etc, of which Ukrainian ones mostly used to be the part of. It is a question that can hardly be converted to a single common position. Both sides have their points pro and contra. It's a question of personal liking, personal preferences. 

In the places like Ukraine you can't throw big enough stones far enough because the whole national building is made of fragile materials, not sure it's glass, but something fragile. And, unfortunately, Russian propaganda as well squeezed the whole identity problem, imperial problem into a rather insignificant language problem. And this is how the problem is usually given in the foreign media that are trying to be unbiased, as well. Practically every Ukrainian knows and may speak both Russian and Ukrainian. The dividing line is not in a language-to-speak that much as it is in the attitudes to Russian Empire, to the Soviet past. You can be a mostly-Russian-speaking Ukrainian, but be against Russia as a mighty geopolitical player. 

Each side has its own collection of emblems: for example, I wouldn't say any significant numbers of pro-Russian or pro-Soviet people in Russia or Ukraine really deep inside their brains and hearts adore Stalin as the human being. They use him as the symbol of mighty Russian Empire in one shape or another. It's just an image associated with defeating the Nazis, standing strong to the rest of the world, rapidly industrializing the predominantly agricultural country. It's an imperial symbol of might and success. Much like, calling something Apollo doesn't mean a tribute to an actual deity, doesn't imply calling for him to bless the name-bearer. 

On the other side, during Euromaidan protests, there was a tradition among the protesters of singing Ukrainian National Anthem every hour or so. I would say, such a tradition de-sacralize an anthem, changes it to an ordinary hit song. Or to a prayer, yes. 

Love tends to be at least partially irrational. There are simply people that love Russian Empire and those who don't. I have stopped arguing against any of the positions relatively long ago. My maternal grandfather defended Moscow in the anti-aircraft unit in 1941, later on was re-qualified into a paratrooper and as such participated in the largest tank battle in history near the village of Prokhorovka (part of The Battle of Kursk). My paternal grandfather and his wife were also nice diligent people, but they were ordinary peasants, they lived like 500 kilometers away from our family when I was growing up. I was affected, was influenced and inspired by my maternal side of the family. Though I was also influenced by my father who was a Ukrainian nationalist, rather anti-Soviet and anti-Russian. My father died in 2012, then in 2014 occurred Euromaidan, ideologically I have become what I am now. My maternal roots have won. 

Meanwhile, I have no doubt that the USSR committed numerous mistakes, crimes, bad deeds, bad deals (like the notorious pact with Hitler). I have no doubt that current Russia has megatons of problems, inequality, corruption, injustice. Simply, my maternal grandparents, my childhood impressions, my knowledge of the Soviet songs, movies, books made me what I am now, ideologically, geopolitically, nationally. To my taste, it is closer than that. It is our bad guys vs their bad guys. I prefer our SOB-s to their SOB-s. 

Though, in 2010 when the European Parliament criticized the Ukraine's awarding of Stepan Bandera with the title of Hero of Ukraine, I have written to the European Parliament an angry letter telling them they do not understand anything, he is indeed a hero. It was in 2010... Then I've changed my mind radically in 2014. My mother's fraction inside me won over the late father's one. 



You may look at the 2021 high school graduates' celebrations' video, made in the village where my father was born. As you can see, they, the West-Ukrainians are very nice, good, charming, brilliant people - like any other people in the world, basically. In those places, that region they consider historical figures such as Stepan Bandera heroes. I can understand them, sympathise with them - yet my tastes are different... I feel no hatred towards the Ukrainian nationalists, but I am proudly consider myself a Soviet man - though I have never been a Communist or pro-Communist and I think the USSR was inimitable and North Korea or Cuba regimes are idiotic and plain criminal. To each group of Ukrainians their own. If I had to choose between Bandera and Stalin, I would have chosen Stalin - both were bast**ds, but my grandfather fought the Nazis under Stalin command, Stalin is my, our SOB. 
To those people in that really splendid video the USSR and Russia are eternal enemies. I understand their view but do not agree to it. 



Edited by Woon Deadn - January 25 2022 at 10:20
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2022 at 04:25
I'm quite surprised that anyone here thinks there are parallels between Trump and Putin. 

If so, the parallels are quite far apart. 

Two reasons why Russia might invade Ukraine - nothing to do with what's stated -

(1) Russia derives an enormous amount of income in supplying gas to Europe. The pipelines run through Ukraine and mainly supply southern Europe. Western governments have been putting huge pressure on Germany, who would be the chief benefactor, to oppose Nordstream 2, a new gas pipeline, as Russian economic dominance in the supply of gas would ensue.

Remember all the problems of the energy crisis of the 1970's ? 

War is almost always economic in nature, either by gaining new territories or opening up new trade possibilities. Also, Russians tend to think along shakmat - chess - lines. Take the hit now, benefit in future. 

(2) The main reason is that Putin will lose face at home if he's seen to concede to the West. Russian leaders do NOT like losing face with the general public in Russia. 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2022 at 11:14
Originally posted by Davesax1965 Davesax1965 wrote:

I'm quite surprised that anyone here thinks there are parallels between Trump and Putin. 

If so, the parallels are quite far apart. 

Two reasons why Russia might invade Ukraine - nothing to do with what's stated -

(1) Russia derives an enormous amount of income in supplying gas to Europe. The pipelines run through Ukraine and mainly supply southern Europe. Western governments have been putting huge pressure on Germany, who would be the chief benefactor, to oppose Nordstream 2, a new gas pipeline, as Russian economic dominance in the supply of gas would ensue.

Remember all the problems of the energy crisis of the 1970's ? 

War is almost always economic in nature, either by gaining new territories or opening up new trade possibilities. Also, Russians tend to think along shakmat - chess - lines. Take the hit now, benefit in future. 

(2) The main reason is that Putin will lose face at home if he's seen to concede to the West. Russian leaders do NOT like losing face with the general public in Russia. 



I would rather compare Putin to cinematographic James Bond, Roger Moore or Timothy Dalton era. Funny man yet a special agent (that has a right to eliminate the enemies). With everything that goes with it. 

As for your points about invasion, 

I think Nordstream 2 would be functioning in either case. 

Certainly, Russian leaders have never liked losing their face. But the times are slowly but changing even in Russia. What looked suitable for Stalin or Khrushchev or Ivan The Terrible (who, btw, translating literally was not Terrible - rather Menacing or Stern), would not be possible for Putin to implement. If he invades and then is forced to withdraw - yes, it might be too much for him. However, if his troops are simply stationing near the border on the Russian territory and then move back - well, it is simply that, troops are moving where they have a need to move inside Russia, not hurting anybody inside or outside. If he did not have plans of invasion, he would not lose his face in case the troops move back. 

Putin is Roger Moore's James Bond, he is playing a video game. Since this is movie he is featured in, nobody would be shot in real life. Or, since we're speaking of Russia, he is an actor who is playing a theatre play. In bolshoy (that is, big) theatre...


Edited by Woon Deadn - January 25 2022 at 11:24
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