Russia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern?

Well, yeah. But Russian history is more or less about conquering large pieces of land.

BTW, Hugues makes a very valid point regarding EU expansion and what is perceived to be encroaching on areas Russia traditionally regards as its own.

I am the man that for some reason attracts Virgo women usually - perhaps, because I may be boring in my search for the roots of everything. I like to dig right till the beginning of the roots. 

To my mind, the main problem here is the general attitude to the former USSR. The massive western view implies that the USSR was broken because of people's fear of the KGB, because of people's hate towards the repressive regime, because the Soviet people wanted to breath a fresh air of freedom... Well, I would say that mainly the USSR was dissoluted in 1991 because the Party elites wanted to have free access to the western goods, and the ordinary people basically wanted the same. Consumerism has killed Totalitarian Socialism (Communism as such was a Utopian goal and thus obviously never achieved in the USSR). People heard about Disneyland, Terminator, Rambo, heavy metal, porn videos, hundreds of types of sausage - but mostly, certainly could not get to any of these. Later they would realise that hundreds of types of sausage mostly differ in label and chemical flavouring, not in "true old-school sausage" ingredients - that would be later. 

Me, I'm just 38 y.o., naturally I only remember the times of Perestroika. Fortunately, I used to talk to my parents, relatives, friends of my parents and relatives rather much when I was younger and they were still alive. I have enough information to analyze myself. What I want to say is that the USSR was obviously a deadborn slowly rotting body - it was destined to die from its very birth. BUT! John Bonham was also destined to die with his unacceptable behaviour when he was drunk. Jerry Lee Lewis happened to be an idiot. Freddie Mercury probably led a very suicidal life. John Lennon was not the most correct person on Earth. And so? Yet they lived for some time (Jerry continues doing so) and left the world somehow positively changed with their works. 

The USSR paved many ways, showed to the humankind what to do and what not to, it was an intriguing geopolitical, political, economical, social, scientific, spiritual, artistic (sic!) experiment. North Korea is a puny parody. Experiments like the Soviet one are inimitable and may only happen once in a lifetime of the Universe. I have no doubt that the USSR committed many crimes, mutilated many lives - like, well, any other huge civilisation, huge project, huge empire. I find it proper to compare the USSR to Monty Python; in my comprehension it was a Weird Empire - not an Evil Empire. Very Pythonesquely unpredictable and versatile, with dark and light pages. As I used to say, the USSR is "Hitler turned Hilter turned Heartli".

Like with any other good quality product (almost any, well), the more time passed since its death in 1991 - the more many of its former citizens start to notice positive in its existence here and there. Brandy, rum, furniture, castles, the USSR - they all fall under the same category. They reveal their real "taste" after some time. 

Now, that was a prologue - noodlingly boring, boringly noodling. 

However, reckoning all of it, said above, the picture looks slightly different. First of all, an average Soviet citizen HAD NO any fear of the KGB, at all - since the death of Stalin in 1953 (and under Stalin it was technically not called KGB, at all). More so, in the last 3-5 years of the USSR existence... So, when the western mass media tells a mantra of "Putin is KGB", it's a scarecrow for the foreigners, actually. 

Second, LOTS, MILLIONS of former Soviet citizens remember lots of good, positive, superior sides of the Soviet reality. It doesn't mean they want the USSR back - it means they feel nostalgia, keep fond memories, want to dive in those times' art, movies, music, books. The USSR was a Universe in itself, a different planet on the planet Earth. Specific cultural codes, specific atmosphere, psychedelia without drugs kind of. Very few people really, in their clear sane mind want it back, even if they claim so (if only we all really wanted what we claim we do, you know). Everybody understands that the times have changed irreversibly. There were evidently bad aspects of the Soviet reality like for example a primitive and painful dentistry where anesthetics were used exclusively for pulling the teeth and nothing else... There indeed were shortages, lines for almost everything (though, let us be frank, not for bread or milk). On the other hand, monthly payment for electricity, running water, central heating, all that stuff constituted 10-15 rubles - an average monthly salary was around 130 rubles. Professors, top mathematicians, academicians earned like 500 rubles, by the way... There were counters only for consumed electricity which meant you could take a bath with hot water as many times as you liked without any impact on your family budget... 

Third, the top Soviet poets enjoyed the same level of popularity as the music stars in the West. Poets could gather a big concert hall with hundreds of fans of their works. Like in ancient or Renaissance times, yep. Ballet, theatre, music schools, technical sections - all for free, just go and participate and study! It is true that the toilet paper was a very rare type of goods to be found on the store shelves - but man, the Soviet citizens massively used paper napkins, old clothes, various rags, newspapers and... books (!) for the purpose! The books cost very little, so little that you could buy it and then use as the source for toilet paper... 

Now, to the core of my message. Of course, Russian post-Euromaidan narrative is overblown, exaggerated and wrongly compiled. Russian mass media used to say post-Euromaidan Ukraine was against the Russian-speaking people, against Russians living in Ukraine as such - which is bullfeces, to be honest. But, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between the two positions. Euromaidan was essentially against the Russian Empire, Russian imperial past, present and future. It was not mentioned from the stage at the Maidan square per se - but it sure was so. 

Then, again, considering everything written by me above, the situation gets clearer: millions of Ukrainians also have fond memories of the Soviet time, they have relatives in Russia, they respect their past in one country under the Moscow rule. Post-2014 Ukraine essentially hints year by year that Russia is insignificant, backwardly, stupid country that always humiliated and murdered Ukrainians. Post-2014 Ukraine wants to lessen, loosen and then gradually cut the ties with Russia, wants to eliminate any positive traces of the Soviet past in the modern Ukrainian mindset. It certainly hurts lots of people in Ukraine. On the other side of the conflict, Russia wants to preserve natural historical ties with Ukraine. Russia wants to be an empire, at least in terms of prestige if not in terms of economical might. Russia with Ukraine looks much more geopolitically and economically convincing on a world stage than Russia with Ukraine as an enemy. 

Given that, it's not quite a question of language, as the Russian media used to say. For most of modern day Ukrainians there's no problem in using Ukrainian or Russian for they mostly know perfectly none of them...  Most of Ukrainians tend to freely switch between the two languages, often mixing them insanely. 

The problem goes deeper. On the hidden long-distance level, it implies weakening Russia as the competitor in the geopolitical game. And the weakening of Ukraine, as well - because with all the turmoil, Russia is the old time relative, while the western countries are strange to Ukraine and naturally do not care about its fate that much.

Because for the Soviet Russians and Ukrainians en masse it was their country and their regime - whether they liked both or not. For the countries de facto occupied by the USSR it was NOT their regime. Simple and clear. Poland and Czech Republic were absolutely non-suitable for Communism, at all. They are two classic democratic Capitalist countries in every possible meaning of the word. I would not just say for each and every Pole or Czech, though - but yes, on average, no true Pole likes the USSR, I agree. Though the centuries-long animosity towards Russia plays major role in such attitude, I suppose. 

The question of East Germany is way more complex... First of all, conscious, thinking Germans after WW2 sure felt the need to go through some sort of catharsis. While the Western part of Germany vividly incorporated former nazis in the political and economical life of the renewed country, East Germany tried to really get clean and white in this respect which mattered much for many contemporaries. Second, the ideas of socialism, even if totalitarian one, were not utterly alien for the German way of perceiving life... Social security (e.g., for young single mothers, et al) is still remembered with nostalgia by some former East German citizens, at least. 

As for Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians - three Baltic countries - I believe, they felt they were humiliated, repressed, oppressed and so on. Then a lot of things may be said on this topic: for example, how rather small Finland happened to defeat the Soviet occupiers while Lithuanians did not?.. As far as I heard from an (anti-Soviet liberal!) Russian historian, Finns actively defended their homeland, the Baltic countries bowed before their invaders very soon... Plus to that, I'm not so sure Lithuania would have been more prosperous if it existed independently in those times. Such small countries on the borders of geopolitical giants usually become trampled by some neighbour's boots - and there's no solution to this problem. Hawaii, anyone?.. OK, I understand that for most Hawaiians inclusion in the USA seems like blessing - but anyway, Hawaii fits perfect for military bases of the USA and that is why it would never become independent, no matter what its inhabitants really think... The same for Baltic states in Stalin pre-WW2 times, they were located critically close to border, to Leningrad. 

Easy Money wrote: The soviet country had no freedom of movement, no one was out at night at all and there was nowhere to go anyway. Tomorrow night, my best friend from soviet Poland will be here and I will try to get her to come on here and tell you about life under the soviets.

I think the Western side is even more likely to stick to MAD because they stand to lose a lot, lot more if London and New York City were nuked.  Russia is a little less dependent on high finance (even though Moscow does form a huge part of its economy) and also has a history of imposing far more suffering on a people who will gladly endure it compared to Europeans or Americans.  So the risk of the US/NATO/AUKUS going all the way to say screw you to MAD is low at least in a conflict with Russia. What MAY happen is if NATO makes big moves to control Ukraine, Russia attacks it and then US imposes even more sanctions. Which is basically what has been going happening through the second half and onwards of Putin's rule.