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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 08:35
Counting extended family and the people who I know outside of family. I probably know several hundred republicans in Texas, Florida, California and TN. I know trumpateers and I know the ones that don't like him. The number that don't like him would surprise someone like you.

If he loses, count on the repub establishment, (Cruz, Graham, Rubio, Paul) to turn on him. Yes, fear is a factor for repub motivation, but you can bet the other repubs know how to manipulate that stuff too. trump isn't the only one who knows how to tap into that, and the others are much smoother at it and less repungent (sp).

Look at it this way, do you think Biden owns the dems, of course not, they just hope he can get the job done, if he fails, he is gone, same for trump. trump will make noise from the sidelines, but the establishment will disown him.

Edited by Easy Money - August 29 2020 at 08:37
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 08:47
after 2016.. anyone who gives 2 farts about how important.. or representative the GOP 'establishment' is to their base....

should have their heads checked.

it does not match reality John...  the establishment didn't want Trump.. didn't matter for what did is what the GOP voter wanted.. and that is.. Trumpism... a party of conflict and divisions..  not  pragmatic ideas or solutions..  

that isn't changing in 2024... or beyond .. at least until the party finally melts down and dies the death of electoral insignificance as a permanent minority party.. fatal in a two party system.. and that is coming.. it isn't just me that sees it coming.  2032 is when I called it...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 08:49
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Counting extended family and the people who I know outside of family. I probably know several hundred republicans in Texas, Florida, California and TN. I know trumpateers and I know the ones that don't like him. The number that don't like him would surprise someone like you.

If he loses, count on the repub establishment, (Cruz, Graham, Rubio, Paul) to turn on him. Yes, fear is a factor for repub motivation, but you can bet the other repubs know how to manipulate that stuff too. trump isn't the only one who knows how to tap into that, and the others are much smoother at it and less repungent (sp).

Look at it this way, do you think Biden owns the dems, of course not, they just hope he can get the job done, if he fails, he is gone, same for trump. trump will make noise from the sidelines, but the establishment will disown him.

your scenario might be correct for big cities. but in rural areas (which make up about 23% of the US-population) about 90% of the republicans are trumpateers. as a rule of thumbs you can probably say: the smaller a city is the bigger the percentage of trumpateers


Edited by BaldJean - August 29 2020 at 08:54


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:00
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

after 2016.. anyone who gives 2 farts about how important.. or representative the GOP 'establishment' is to their base....

should have their heads checked.

it does not match reality John...  the establishment didn't want Trump.. didn't matter for what did is what the GOP voter wanted.. and that is.. Trumpism... a party of conflict and divisions..  not  pragmatic ideas or solutions..  

that isn't changing in 2024... or beyond .. at least until the party finally melts down and dies the death of electoral insignificance as a permanent minority party.. fatal in a two party system.. and that is coming.. it isn't just me that sees it coming.  2032 is when I called it...
The difference is that in 2016 the establishment had to play with the trumpateers because trump looked like a winner. If he loses, the establishment will turn on him.

Its a long way to 2024, but right now the leading repub candidates are Paul, Cruz and Rubio. I think Rubio could win that contest. He is not a moderate, he is a tea party conservative. Some trumpateers may not like him, but he will also bring back those that don't like trump, its an even trade. Also, don't assume trumpateers don't like Rubio. He has one big thing going for him, he's not a democrat, any trumpateer can appreciate that.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:14
yes.. but what I find surprising John is you failing to recognize the disconnect between the establishment and the base with the GOP. Comparing that party to the Democrats is apples and oranges. Only a moron would fail to recognize the difference between the two parties. One is a coalition.. the other purges those who fail to tow the line. Loyalty is key more than working together through differences.

Perhaps your 1/3 x 3 may hold for elected officials but does not match the actual voters who don't want compromise.. with Democrats.. or even with moderates in their own party. RINO's man.... almost as bad as godless Democrats..

as an aside..  remember just who comprises that 'establishment'.

can you name the last name the Republicans had a sitting Senator become President...   nope..  either can I. 

For good reason.. it hasn't happened in 100 years....  and that was even before the party changed so abrubtly in the last decade and much of Trumpism is based in disgust for the swamp and the funny part as we have seen ... that swamp is really is a Zip Code Republicans own... and Republicans know that. Trump ran as much against that establishment as anything..

I do think in 2024.. much as 2016.. it will be an outsider.. and yep..probably another populist snake oil salesman that taps into Republican anger and fear.  I think Don Jr. has as much... if not a better chance than someone like Rubio that quite simply.. doesn't represent the party's base today.

and Trump is doing the party no favors..   sure some of that establishment are hoping a wipeout in 2020 will help cleanse the party of these morons.. but instead of being seen as a wake up call Trump's playing to fraud and irregularies will only strengthen his influence on the party moving forward.


Edited by micky - August 29 2020 at 09:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:33
What happens in 2024 when the Repubs throw a ticket of Nikki Haley/Tim Scott at the world?  I think that will siphon a lot of Democrat voters away.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:38
that is the basic problem the Republicans have Scott.. that would be a great ticket.. 

in November.. 

the problem is of course.. the Kasich 2016 problem...   a winning candidate in November is not the same as a winning candidate in March... fior they have to win Republcans over first before trying to win over moderates..

they have to win over the far right to win the nomination..any of them will... and in doing so.. if they could.. they wouldn't  look as good in November as they might now on paper...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:46
and do note..  much of Haley's appeal is simply for her sex.. and look no further than what is going on now in 2020....

GOP women senators,,, ,largely moderate... are likely going down hard.. most of them in 2020... it isn't the sex that will appeal to woman and suburbanites.. or perhaps bring them back..

it is what they stand for.



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:46
Re Micky: What you are failing to recognize is that the base did beat the establishment in 2016, but that is no guarantee that will happen again in 2024.
The repub party is far more diverse than you realize The trumpateers ran the show in 2016 because the establishment played along, but once again, I know lots and lots of repubs who are not trumpateers and the establishment wants them back.

Lets take my two little sisters for example, both are repubs who voted trump in 2016 and probably will not vote for him in 2020. They are educated, professional, responsible and not the least bit racist. I know lots and lots of repubs like that.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 09:56
as I've seen zero evidence of that so called diversity... and a hell of a lot of evidence of the successful purge of it..

I'll admit if I'm wrong John.. but as I see zero evidence of a diverse party accepting differences in thought..A coalition of right and center...that has any sense of a moderate wing.. much less a vibrant one.. I'll stick to my take on this.

it isn't Trump that took over the party.. it is the voter he tapped into.. and they aren't going anywhere.. except the grave hahah...  before 2024... they will be the ones selecting the 2024 nominee.  The candidates will have to pander to them.. or .. the candidate will be ONE of them.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:01
I mean.. come on.. even the Chamber of Commerce.. that once great Republican stalwart.. is going Democratic.

that party has lost all its non culture war bearings....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:11
Both parties are parties of compromise.  The Republicans are traditionally the more fiscally conservative party and there are a number of traditional Republicans that are not racists; they just prefer the fiscally conservative approach to government.   They are however, also the more socially conservative party as well...and this draws in the more rural individuals and the more religious? individuals (although they may be more of the Sunday morning religious folks versus the truly devout).  Again not necessarily racist, but strongly against the idea of separation of church and state.  But there is most definitely the branch of white supremacists within the republican party that Trump's dog whistles definitely appeal too.

The Democrats have the same duality though.  In my mind, Republicans tend to be focused on helping themselves and Democrats tend to be focused on helping others and these are really the opposing points of views.  I think that overall both parties want the best for everybody and the best America possible, but they just have very differing points of view on how to get there.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:15
Re Micky: Your opinions are based on what you read in the media, you do not know the republican party and its constituents on a personal basis like I do.

You can tell a candidate's popularity around here by the bumper stickers and the yard signs. W generated tons of yard signs and car stickers, McCain and Romney less, but still visible, but with trump there is very little visible support. The man is not near as popular as you would like to think. Most of his votes are based on the fact that he isn't a democrat, but I see very little love for the guy except from a few die-hards.

Edited by Easy Money - August 29 2020 at 10:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:20
There are at least 20 Trump-Pence signs up on lawns in my neighborhood.  I've yet to see a Biden-Harris sign in my neighborhood, although I have seen a couple in neighboring neighborhoods...not nearly as many as the Trump - Pence signs.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:23
Its weird I'm here defending the repubs, I'm an independent who is disgusted with how they have cowered to trump, but I don't care for misinformation or propaganda from either party or the media.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:26
I'm a Democrat who is becoming disenchanted with the left wing of the party but can't stand Trump so feel like I am between a rock and a hard place.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:37
Originally posted by rushfan4 rushfan4 wrote:

There are at least 20 Trump-Pence signs up on lawns in my neighborhood.  I've yet to see a Biden-Harris sign in my neighborhood, although I have seen a couple in neighboring neighborhoods...not nearly as many as the Trump - Pence signs.
Interesting, there are no trump signs here so far. A republican friend of mine who hates trump tells me that a lot of repubs are embarrassed to say they are voting for him. LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:38
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Re Micky: Your opinions are based on what you read in the media, you do not know the republican party and its constituents on a personal basis like I do.

You can tell a candidate's popularity around here by the bumper stickers and the yard signs. W generated tons of yard signs and car stickers, McCain and Romney less, but still visible, but with trump there is very little visible support. The man is not near as popular as you would like to think. Most of his votes are based on the fact that he isn't a democrat, but I see very little love for the guy except from a few die-hards.

opinions??  ouch.. you hurt me my friend... I thought you liked me and valued my thoughts hahah

I learned from 2016.. I stopped reading.. or paying credence to opinion pieces. It is often prejudiced and personal spin...

I go for hard data these days... that is what I base my opinions on. not the opinions of those I've come to learn... really don't get what is going on. Woman and the 'burbs leaving the GOP.. that is not about Trump..nor ends with his exit... it started long before him. Virginia 2008 when the state flipped from red to blue for those same demographics leaving the GOP.  My best case in point.. still not recognizing why Trump won in 2016. You see that by looking at data.. not reading opinions of those that.. did not.

and popularity?  and to Scott's point about yard signs... and back to 3rd party votes in 2016.

it isn't just who you vote for ...who you support.. as much as who you are passionately against.. and vote against.

you do note that while Democrats are not as excited to vote for Biden as Republicans are for Trump...

you will note that every single poll has had the same result that more Democrats are energized to vote against Trump.. than Republicans are for Trump. Polls are what they are.. but taken in with actual results.. like every single election cycle since Trump was elected.. that Democrats are motivated to vote and whether it be FOR Biden.. or AGAINST Trump.. the vote counts the same and this time with no measurable 3rd party inclination as was seen.. but completely overlooked by those same 'opinion' pieces and polls. that told us Clinton had it in the bag in 2016.

we all make mistakes...  some actually do learn from their mistakes....  I don't care about uniformed or prejudiced opinion John.. I look at the hard numbers..polls and voting results.. and then form my own opinions.




Edited by micky - August 29 2020 at 10:40
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 10:39
Originally posted by rushfan4 rushfan4 wrote:

I'm a Democrat who is becoming disenchanted with the left wing of the party but can't stand Trump so feel like I am between a rock and a hard place.  
Biden vs trump is an easy choice. trump is a disaster, no good as a conservative and absolutely nothing going on as a progressive.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 29 2020 at 11:01
Re Micky: Enjoyed the chat as always, I just get tired of repub stereotypes that are nothing like the many repubs I know personally, and this kind of stereotyping drives many of them away from the dems. trump has brought out the worst in the party, but don't think a lot of repubs are into that.

Anyway, usually when I am on the world wide web I am at other sites pointing out how awful trump is, and I'm a switch hitter, I can easily cut him down from a conservative viewpoint. Peace out my friend.
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