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lazland

Prog Reviewer

Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13740

Posted: April 27 2020 at 13:42

Atavachron wrote:

^^ Great balanced, centered post.

Wasn’t it. A joy to read.

I might also point out that you, Steve G, and Jose in particular have also displayed admirable balance, and a complete absence of hysteria.

(And before anybody else jumps in with a streak of virtue signalling, no none of the three have slavishly agreed with me. All have made balanced and reasonable points, as Jonesy did).

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!

Atavachron View Drop Down

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Location: Pearland
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Points: 65417

Posted: April 27 2020 at 15:01

^ Hard not to be interpreted as callous, or as comparing this to influenza which it clearly is not. I'm just glad there's been some progress.

Interesting study from China suggesting the primary sources of infection are in the home and on public transportation. That is both a daunting problem and yet very important information.

Edited by Atavachron - April 27 2020 at 15:15

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy

Lewian

Prog Reviewer

Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934

Posted: April 28 2020 at 06:37

CosmicVibration wrote:

Lewian wrote:

CosmicVibration wrote:

Flattening the curve: the same number of people ultimately get infected but over a longer period of time.

This of course assumes that there will be no vaccine and that the virus doesn't mutate into something less harmful (which has happened in history many times, e.g., Spanish flu). It's unknown whether and when these will happen but that doesn't mean predictions from a model that assumes they won't are to be believed.

Furthermore, even if these things don't happen, we may get better at treatment over time (which we in all likelihood already do). So there are many reasons to slow things down other than not to overload the health system at any given time.

Vaccine development takes an awful long time. Even if corners are cut and rushed it will be over 1 year.

Well then it should help to slow things down considerably, shouldn't it? Which is my point.

There’s still no treatment for the common cold so I wouldn’t hold my breath for a treatment.

That depends on what you mean by "treatment". I don't see any effective drug curing that thing reliably any time soon, however for flattening the curve to make sense it already helps to bring down the mortality rate a bit. Even some research into which mistakes to avoid (like putting the "wrong" people on respirators; I've read about what has been learnt on this in the meantime) can mean some progress and more survivors.

And last one thing I forgot. There's another major reason for flattening the curve, which is that the more overstretched the hospitals, the higher the death rate. Evidence on this is everywhere to be found (look at Wuhan vs. rest of China for a start), and differences are striking. Having hospitals that can cope is the best medicine we currently have.

Lewian

Prog Reviewer

Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934

Posted: April 28 2020 at 06:50

lazland: You can bang on about numbers being meaningless as long as you want. In fact there are many ways in which we can learn, for example data and mortality from the Diamond Princess where everyone was tested (which of course needs to be age-adjusted - not that this is something that cannot be done), relating known fatality to know positive cases knowing the percentage of population tested in certain areas, comparing percentages of positive test results among non-symptomatic people (which do exist) with those of symptomatic people etc. All mathematical modelling can be criticised, but if humankind believed that every model that can be legitimately criticised is in effect worthless, we'd still believe the earth is flat. People have estimated very generous intervals for mortality of Covid-19 compared with flu, based on the available information and taking into account uncertainties, and these range from Covid-19 being five times more deadly to a factor of 100 and more (I have actually linked to and commented on such results, without a response from you). That's the thing with science, we don't know things precisely, there are large uncertainties, we try to find out better and take into account uncertainty. There's always something to criticise and something to improve, true, but ignore science at your peril.

Lewian

Prog Reviewer

Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934

Posted: April 28 2020 at 07:09

Coincidentally, just minutes ago I got this sent:

https://medium.com/@BenGardiner/covid-19-calculating-the-death-rate-isnt-actually-that-hard-7a61ed5715e8

Any thought that the true fatality rate is in the region of 0.5% or lower is clearly wrong based on the Korean and Diamond Princess data. Even if there are no further deaths from the cruise ship, the implied fatality rate adjusted to match the UK population matches the 0.9% used by Ferguson’s team, and any error here is likely to be on the upside.

Edited by Lewian - April 28 2020 at 07:11

CosmicVibration View Drop Down

Forum Senior Member

Joined: February 26 2014
Location: Milky Way
Status: Offline
Points: 1396

Posted: April 28 2020 at 08:06

Lewian wrote:

CosmicVibration wrote:

Lewian wrote:

CosmicVibration wrote:

Flattening the curve: the same number of people ultimately get infected but over a longer period of time.

Vaccine development takes an awful long time. Even if corners are cut and rushed it will be over 1 year.

Well then it should help to slow things down considerably, shouldn't it? Which is my point.

There’s still no treatment for the common cold so I wouldn’t hold my breath for a treatment.

So how long do you shut down? No country can sustain a 1 year shut down. For some 1 month is not sustainable.

“If all we do is flatten the curve, you don’t prevent deaths, you just change the dates.” - World class risk modelers

A brief shut down may be beneficial as phase 1.. I don’t know.

Building immunity seems to be the key.

I’ll post this vid again; Dr. Katz makes a lot of sense to me.

Ok I’m out… Grabbing my mask and venturing out for some more food supplies and then going to enjoy my time off.

Lewian

Prog Reviewer

Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934

Posted: April 28 2020 at 08:47

CosmicVibration wrote:

So how long do you shut down? No country can sustain a 1 year shut down. For some 1 month is not sustainable.

I'm not a politician, I don't have to decide that, and I do think the side effects of shutting down are severe. Why does everyone who makes the legitimate point that lockdown leads to big problems also need to make some kind of nonsense point about it probably not helping (much)? Isn't it possible to accept that there are very good reasons for and against lockdown?

“If all we do is flatten the curve, you don’t prevent deaths, you just change the dates.” - World class risk modelers

Show me somebody who says this and I show you somebody who is surely not a "world class risk modeller".

Well, actually I've got to change my mind on that and say, of course this is so. All we ever do when surviving is just changing the date of our death. Tongue Except you'd still not expect your risk modeller of choice to make that point.

PS: By the way your Dr. Katz does a lot of boasting about "world class", "who is who" etc. Later he says that he thinks what Sweden is doing is too liberal in his opinion, and that it seems they have more deaths than necessary. Which runs counter to his earlier catchy "we only change the date" message. (Except that in fact we indeed only change the date, but that doesn't mean anything. Wink

) Oh, he also says "98-99% of all cases are mild", which is nonsense. At the very best he can say we don't have a clue about that, those who have good reasons to think they do rather say that something like 98-99% don't die, see above.

Edited by Lewian - April 28 2020 at 09:16

Tom Ozric

Prog Reviewer

Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15926

Posted: April 28 2020 at 09:16

I like how this term ‘flattening the curve’ was virtually unheard of before Covid19, now most everyone is saying it.......

Icarium

Forum Senior Member

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Location: Tigerstaden
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Points: 34069

Posted: April 28 2020 at 11:45

my curves (muscles ) are also flattening

but my jogging regiment have increased during collectiv quarentine time.

Catcher10

Forum Senior Member

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Joined: December 23 2009
Location: Emerald City
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Points: 17909

Posted: April 28 2020 at 22:33

The non-essential record player

A man, walking down a public street, is stopped by an obese policewoman who asks him,

“Where are you going, Sir?”

“I’m going to buy a record player.”

“Sir, I’m sorry but you can’t do that.”

“What do you mean, I can’t do that?”

“Sir, a record player is not an essential item.”

“How can you possibly know what is essential to me?”

“Sir, you are only permitted to go out to buy food or medicines.”

“Well, I don’t need any medicines because music is my medicine; therefore, it is essential for me.”

“Sir, music is non-essential.”

“Who decided that?”

“The government.”

“The government cannot possibly know what is or isn’t essential for any human being, can it?”

“Sir, you must return to your house now.”

“And if I don’t?”

“Sir, I will have to arrest you.”

“For wanting to buy a record player?”

“No Sir, for violating the quarantine order.”

“But you are violating the same quarantine order, are you not?”

“No Sir, I am not. I am an essential worker.”

“You don’t look very essential to me. What exactly is essential about you?”

“Sir, it is my job to enforce the law.”

“So, why don’t you go and arrest the bankers who destroyed our economy.”

“I’m not authorised to do that, Sir.”

“I see. You are authorised to arrest me for wanting to buy a product, but not a banker for fraud?”

“Sir, I must ask you to return to your home immediately.”

“But my record player is broken, and I therefore must buy a new one, as it is essential to my well-being.”

“Sir, the shop that sells record players is closed.”

“Why the f**k didn’t you tell me that in the first place.”

The man turns around and starts walking home, wondering if he should be grateful or regretful that he forgot to bring his baseball bat with him.

(https://recordplayer.com/the-non-essential-record-player/)

lazland

Prog Reviewer

Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13740

Posted: April 29 2020 at 00:19

Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org

Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!

rdtprog

Special Collaborator

Heavy, RPI, Symph, JR/F Canterbury Teams

Joined: April 04 2009
Location: Mtl, QC
Status: Online
Points: 5331

Posted: April 29 2020 at 02:59

Icarium wrote:

my curves (muscles ) are also flattening

but my jogging regiment have increased during collectiv quarentine time.

Our province will start opening business May 11th, but unfortunately the gym are not part of business who can open. Despite having more death cases than everyone else in Canada we decided to take the risk to get out of our confinement. We're going to serve as a guinea pig for the rest of Canada.

Music is the refuge of souls ulcerated by happiness.

Emile M. Cioran

SteveG

Forum Senior Member

Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20616

Posted: April 29 2020 at 04:17

Catcher10 wrote:

The non-essential record player

A man, walking down a public street, is stopped by an obese policewoman who asks him,

“Where are you going, Sir?”

“I’m going to buy a record player.”

“Sir, I’m sorry but you can’t do that.”

“What do you mean, I can’t do that?”

“Sir, a record player is not an essential item.”

“How can you possibly know what is essential to me?”

“Sir, you are only permitted to go out to buy food or medicines.”

“Well, I don’t need any medicines because music is my medicine; therefore, it is essential for me.”

“Sir, music is non-essential.”

“Who decided that?”

“The government.”

“The government cannot possibly know what is or isn’t essential for any human being, can it?”

“Sir, you must return to your house now.”

“And if I don’t?”

“Sir, I will have to arrest you.”

“For wanting to buy a record player?”

“No Sir, for violating the quarantine order.”

“But you are violating the same quarantine order, are you not?”

“No Sir, I am not. I am an essential worker.”

“You don’t look very essential to me. What exactly is essential about you?”

“Sir, it is my job to enforce the law.”

“So, why don’t you go and arrest the bankers who destroyed our economy.”

“I’m not authorised to do that, Sir.”

“I see. You are authorised to arrest me for wanting to buy a product, but not a banker for fraud?”

“Sir, I must ask you to return to your home immediately.”

“But my record player is broken, and I therefore must buy a new one, as it is essential to my well-being.”

“Sir, the shop that sells record players is closed.”

“Why the f**k didn’t you tell me that in the first place.”

The man turns around and starts walking home, wondering if he should be grateful or regretful that he forgot to bring his baseball bat with him.

(https://recordplayer.com/the-non-essential-record-player/)

It was just a matter of time before the anti lockdown rhetoric started to seep in. I enjoy the Fox/Hannity crowd praising North Dakota for opening back up and being held up as a model for the rest of the country, forgetting that ND has a fraction of the population of East and West coast states and that the virus has had little impact there with only 19 deaths so far. Talk about a bubble.

This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.

SteveG

Forum Senior Member

Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20616

Posted: April 29 2020 at 04:21

npjnpj wrote:

In a way both of you are correct.

Too many people have gone undiagnosed and recovered, and too many people have died without proper diagnosis. Even now, the numbers are accounted on differing criteria in different areas. Some countries record the cause of death as non-corona related if another underlying illness exists, and some don’t, etc.

Just for statistical purposes, correct and complete testing will not supply the data required for comprehensive results; that time has passed and can't be corrected.

Even if you have some isolated area that you could analyse from scratch (a cruise ship or something similar), the study group would probably be too small for the data to be applied to the whole pandemic. Close, but not close enough.

So in a way, we probably won’t know the exact numbers, but then again, we don’t have the exact numbers for seasonal flu either. Does it matter? Probably not. At least not for statistical purposes alone.

So we don’t really have a choice but to make do with estimates and work with them. Not ideal, but not a deal-breaker either.

What worries me a bit is that the numbers we have at the moment are (still) vague enough so that they can be interpreted and (mis)used for differing purposes. Open everything up again? Sure,why not; look at the numbers. Stay shut down? Sure, why not; look at the numbers.

That is only one way to look at it. The safest way to protect life and limb is still by quarantining at this juncture. The less safe way is to open back up without all of the necessary testing that's needed to insure that we have a firm handle on the amount of infected people and that is still a ways off. Don't be fooled by the lessening amount of infections and deaths. Those initial estimates were arrived at without the country ever being quarantined, something that was thought impossible at the onslaught of C-19. Think about it. The entire US almost shutdown? It had never been done before and there was no plan in place to do it.

Edited by SteveG - April 29 2020 at 04:27

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Tom Ozric

Prog Reviewer

Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15926

Posted: April 29 2020 at 04:43

All it takes are some asymptomatic folks to mix with the vulnerable and everything is once again compromised. To early to jump the gun IMO.

Catcher10

Forum Senior Member

VIP Member

Joined: December 23 2009
Location: Emerald City
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Points: 17909

Posted: April 29 2020 at 10:06

SteveG wrote:

Catcher10 wrote:

The non-essential record player

A man, walking down a public street, is stopped by an obese policewoman who asks him,

“Where are you going, Sir?”

“I’m going to buy a record player.”

“Sir, I’m sorry but you can’t do that.”

“What do you mean, I can’t do that?”

“Sir, a record player is not an essential item.”

“How can you possibly know what is essential to me?”

“Sir, you are only permitted to go out to buy food or medicines.”

“Well, I don’t need any medicines because music is my medicine; therefore, it is essential for me.”

“Sir, music is non-essential.”

“Who decided that?”

“The government.”

“The government cannot possibly know what is or isn’t essential for any human being, can it?”

“Sir, you must return to your house now.”

“And if I don’t?”

“Sir, I will have to arrest you.”

“For wanting to buy a record player?”

“No Sir, for violating the quarantine order.”

“But you are violating the same quarantine order, are you not?”

“No Sir, I am not. I am an essential worker.”

“You don’t look very essential to me. What exactly is essential about you?”

“Sir, it is my job to enforce the law.”

“So, why don’t you go and arrest the bankers who destroyed our economy.”

“I’m not authorised to do that, Sir.”

“I see. You are authorised to arrest me for wanting to buy a product, but not a banker for fraud?”

“Sir, I must ask you to return to your home immediately.”

“But my record player is broken, and I therefore must buy a new one, as it is essential to my well-being.”

“Sir, the shop that sells record players is closed.”

“Why the f**k didn’t you tell me that in the first place.”

The man turns around and starts walking home, wondering if he should be grateful or regretful that he forgot to bring his baseball bat with him.

(https://recordplayer.com/the-non-essential-record-player/)

Well as much as I agree with you, it may be a bit early to "open back up". But ND is not the problem, again since you mention a political plug....Have you seen what Calif and Washington have allowed, the Dem capitols of the west coast?

All So Cal beaches were populated this past weekend, people were out in droves basking in the sun and frolicking in the ocean. Here in WA state, parks were opened back up and people were again out in numbers hanging out, as well a very popular farmers market near Seattle was open this past weekend. The messages these states are sending to the public is highly confusing..........So based on what these two large populated states are allowing, how can you blame ND?

SteveG

Forum Senior Member

Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20616

Posted: April 29 2020 at 10:15

Catcher10 wrote:

SteveG wrote:

Catcher10 wrote:

The non-essential record player

A man, walking down a public street, is stopped by an obese policewoman who asks him,

“Where are you going, Sir?”

“I’m going to buy a record player.”

“Sir, I’m sorry but you can’t do that.”

“What do you mean, I can’t do that?”

“Sir, a record player is not an essential item.”

“How can you possibly know what is essential to me?”

“Sir, you are only permitted to go out to buy food or medicines.”

“Well, I don’t need any medicines because music is my medicine; therefore, it is essential for me.”

“Sir, music is non-essential.”

“Who decided that?”

“The government.”

“The government cannot possibly know what is or isn’t essential for any human being, can it?”

“Sir, you must return to your house now.”

“And if I don’t?”

“Sir, I will have to arrest you.”

“For wanting to buy a record player?”

“No Sir, for violating the quarantine order.”

“But you are violating the same quarantine order, are you not?”

“No Sir, I am not. I am an essential worker.”

“You don’t look very essential to me. What exactly is essential about you?”

“Sir, it is my job to enforce the law.”

“So, why don’t you go and arrest the bankers who destroyed our economy.”

“I’m not authorised to do that, Sir.”

“I see. You are authorised to arrest me for wanting to buy a product, but not a banker for fraud?”

“Sir, I must ask you to return to your home immediately.”

“But my record player is broken, and I therefore must buy a new one, as it is essential to my well-being.”

“Sir, the shop that sells record players is closed.”

“Why the f**k didn’t you tell me that in the first place.”

The man turns around and starts walking home, wondering if he should be grateful or regretful that he forgot to bring his baseball bat with him.

(https://recordplayer.com/the-non-essential-record-player/)

Two wrongs never make a right. However, ND did not get the inspiration to open from California and Washington state, that came from the Republican's crying for their freedom. Just like the old Revolutionary war slogan " Give Me Liberty Or Give Me Death!". And Republicans always take things literally, so...

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verslibre

Forum Senior Member

Joined: July 01 2004
Location: CA
Status: Online
Points: 17796

Posted: April 29 2020 at 10:20

Catcher10 wrote:

Well as much as I agree with you, it may be a bit early to "open back up". But ND is not the problem, again since you mention a political plug....Have you seen what Calif and Washington have allowed, the Dem capitols of the west coast?

All So Cal beaches were populated this past weekend, people were out in droves basking in the sun and frolicking in the ocean. Here in WA state, parks were opened back up and people were again out in numbers hanging out, as well a very popular farmers market near Seattle was open this past weekend. The messages these states are sending to the public is highly confusing..........So based on what these two large populated states are allowing, how can you blame ND?

Only Newport Beach and Huntington Beach (in Orange County) opened, so everyone flocked there. San Diego County is only beginning to open their beaches, slowly, as of Monday. Los Angeles County has yet to follow suit.

eBay

The Dark Elf View Drop Down

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Location: Michigan
Status: Offline
Points: 13109

Posted: April 29 2020 at 11:13

Catcher10 wrote:

The non-essential record player

A man, walking down a public street, is stopped by an obese policewoman who asks him,

“Where are you going, Sir?”

“I’m going to buy a record player.”

“Sir, I’m sorry but you can’t do that.”

“What do you mean, I can’t do that?”

“Sir, a record player is not an essential item.”

“How can you possibly know what is essential to me?”

“Sir, you are only permitted to go out to buy food or medicines.”

“Well, I don’t need any medicines because music is my medicine; therefore, it is essential for me.”

“Sir, music is non-essential.”

“Who decided that?”

“The government.”

“The government cannot possibly know what is or isn’t essential for any human being, can it?”

“Sir, you must return to your house now.”

“And if I don’t?”

“Sir, I will have to arrest you.”

“For wanting to buy a record player?”

“No Sir, for violating the quarantine order.”

“But you are violating the same quarantine order, are you not?”

“No Sir, I am not. I am an essential worker.”

“You don’t look very essential to me. What exactly is essential about you?”

“Sir, it is my job to enforce the law.”

“So, why don’t you go and arrest the bankers who destroyed our economy.”

“I’m not authorised to do that, Sir.”

“I see. You are authorised to arrest me for wanting to buy a product, but not a banker for fraud?”

“Sir, I must ask you to return to your home immediately.”

“But my record player is broken, and I therefore must buy a new one, as it is essential to my well-being.”

“Sir, the shop that sells record players is closed.”

“Why the f**k didn’t you tell me that in the first place.”

The man turns around and starts walking home, wondering if he should be grateful or regretful that he forgot to bring his baseball bat with him.

(https://recordplayer.com/the-non-essential-record-player/)

Sorry, but this is a badly-written allegory. And some jackass referring to a policeman/woman (who is referred to as "obese" -- I guess to show she is inefficient and useless) as "non-essential" is asinine (I can see the taser coming out any minute). And to top it off, the dolt is walking to a store without even knowing it's open? And he is angry at the cop for not informing him of his own ignorance earlier on?

On another level, does anyone actually walk to a store to buy a record player? Is this an actual turntable, or is this guy getting one of those old-school record players that looks fine and antique-y up on a shelf but which would tear up expensive vinyl? This story could be cut to a couple sentences by the cop stating, "order your record player online and have it delivered like everyone else, and get your whiny butt effing home before I cuff you."

...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...

Catcher10

Forum Senior Member

VIP Member

Joined: December 23 2009
Location: Emerald City
Status: Offline
Points: 17909

Posted: April 29 2020 at 22:38

verslibre wrote:

I grew up in So Cal and Huntington Beach was it, we did all our surfing there. I guess to me a beach just goes on into another one...but I agree with your correction, thanks.

Also not sure of the validity but I heard on news less than 10 people were arrested, probably for disorderly conduct LOL

Covid-19 and the madness of crowds

The non-essential record player

The non-essential record player

The non-essential record player

The non-essential record player

The non-essential record player