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Joined: February 26 2014
Location: Milky Way
Status: Offline
Points: 1396
Posted: April 26 2020 at 11:46
Lewian wrote:
CosmicVibration wrote:
Flattening the curve:thesame number of
people ultimately get infectedbut
over a longer period of time.
This of course assumes that there will be no vaccine and that the virus doesn't mutate into something less harmful (which has happened in history many times, e.g., Spanish flu). It's unknown whether and when these will happen but that doesn't mean predictions from a model that assumes they won't are to be believed.
Furthermore, even if these things don't happen, we may get better at treatment over time (which we in all likelihood already do). So there are many reasons to slow things down other than not to overload the health system at any given time.
Vaccine development takes an awful long time.Even if corners are cut and rushed it will be
over 1 year.
There’s still no treatment for the common cold so I wouldn’t
hold my breath for a treatment.
If the same amount of people ultimately get infected then in
my opinion the pros do not stack up against the cons.
Personally, I’m making out like a bandit and shouldn’t be
complaining.R&D for the
communication company I work for is done in the US and all manufacturing is
overseas.90% of the employees could
work from home.I need to be in the lab
and can do very little from home.
I work maybe 3 hours a week (mostly meetings) and get paid
full salary.
Basically I’ve been on vacation for the last 2 months
without digging into vacation time.
Saving money on gas and tolls.
Getting stimulus from the government.
Finished a few projects around the house.
Picked up some old habits, I mean hobbies.
Spending more time with my wife, and no, she’s not getting
on my nerve.I’m under the mindset that
if someone gets my goat, it’s not their fault, it’s mine.I let them take away my peace and need to
meditate more.
Joined: July 29 2005
Location: None
Status: Offline
Points: 24429
Posted: April 26 2020 at 11:50
I have tried to stay out of this so far because I did not trust myself, especially as my own country has been very badly hit by the pandemic, and I happen to have family and friends there. However, there's just one thing I feel the need to say. As many of you born in the 1950s and 1960s, I grew up hearing stories of wartime life from my mom. If any of you have seen Rossellini's film Open City, you might have an idea of what those years were like. Not just economic deprivation, but living in constant fear of death coming from the sky (and one of my mom's aunts died in a bombing in a town near Rome). I wonder what those of you who talk about the dire consequences of prolonging the lockdown would have done if they had found themselves in my mom's shoes.
Joined: November 02 2018
Location: OR
Status: Offline
Points: 6046
Posted: April 26 2020 at 12:12
Raff wrote:
I have tried to stay out of this so far because I did not trust myself, especially as my own country has been very badly hit by the pandemic, and I happen to have family and friends there. However, there's just one thing I feel the need to say. As many of you born in the 1950s and 1960s, I grew up hearing stories of wartime life from my mom. If any of you have seen Rossellini's film Open City, you might have an idea of what those years were like. Not just economic deprivation, but living in constant fear of death coming from the sky (and one of my mom's aunts died in a bombing in a town near Rome). I wonder what those of you who talk about the dire consequences of prolonging the lockdown would have done if they had found themselves in my mom's shoes.
Well said, Raff.
"Into every rain, a little life must fall." ~Tom Rapp
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13742
Posted: April 26 2020 at 13:21
Raff wrote:
I have tried to stay out of this so far because I did not trust myself, especially as my own country has been very badly hit by the pandemic, and I happen to have family and friends there. However, there's just one thing I feel the need to say. As many of you born in the 1950s and 1960s, I grew up hearing stories of wartime life from my mom. If any of you have seen Rossellini's film Open City, you might have an idea of what those years were like. Not just economic deprivation, but living in constant fear of death coming from the sky (and one of my mom's aunts died in a bombing in a town near Rome). I wonder what those of you who talk about the dire consequences of prolonging the lockdown would have done if they had found themselves in my mom's shoes.
Raff, of all the people on this site, my respect for you is at the very top, but I really must answer this.
My father was born in Valletta in 1940. My grandmother was a Maltese cleaner, my grandfather a British RSM in charge of the anti aircraft battalion at the top of Valletta. His medals and commemorations can still be seen to this day in the Malta War Museum. I am inordinately proud of this.
They had barely any food. Bombs rained from the sky on Malta permanently for at least three years until the siege was lifted, and it was lifted only owing to the courage and dedication shown by those brave people, which was recognised in the award to the entire island of The George Cross.
I can tell you with utter certainty that the pair of them would have been utterly bemused by the modern day reaction to adversity. They both lived through Spanish Flu, a pandemic unparalleled since the bubonic plague. They did their best in the face of sheer adversity, poverty, death, destruction, and a period of immense struggle.
Dad is still with us. He misses the pub and calling out the bingo on a Wednesday night. He is 79. He stays in, because he does what he is told. But he knows that he and his family have faced far more serious adversity.
I might add that I have struggled for a lifetime with anxiety issues. Regular panic attacks, dying on the train, I am very much used to it. This might explain why I am better placed to cope with this present day issue, I don’t know. What I do know is that one of my coping mechanisms is thinking very seriously about how the people I miss so very much would have coped and managed. A damned sight better than me, and the thought of their struggles always bring me back to reality.
Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
Posted: April 26 2020 at 20:10
did watch that video Madan.. at least half of it before I started to nod off.. so perhaps I missed a few things..
like a biggie.. that dude talked a lot about the Indian economy in the first half of the video and that is to be expected.. but did he touch on what is very likely to happen..
a global 'L' and would India be immune from that... for as he noted.. as have others.. The 2008 crisis went global but was an easy problem.. easy solution .. but it took still years to recover. This is anything but..
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
Posted: April 26 2020 at 20:36
micky wrote:
did watch that video Madan.. at least half of it before I started to nod off.. so perhaps I missed a few things..
like a biggie.. that dude talked a lot about the Indian economy in the first half of the video and that is to be expected.. but did he touch on what is very likely to happen..
a global 'L' and would India be immune from that... for as he noted.. as have others.. The 2008 crisis went global but was an easy problem.. easy solution .. but it took still years to recover. This is anything but..
He said it around the time stamp I quoted. He said an L shape recovery is unlikely but one India must prepare for while hoping against. And this was three weeks ago, so I am sure he is taking L shape even more seriously now. I don't know who is even dreaming of V shape after the crude bloodbath of last week. Then again, The Donald and his acolytes might.
That dude did make a mistake by comparing it to Spanish Flu during which no comparable shutdown of the economy was imposed. Once we consider that, we can see this will be much worse than that or 2008. It already is.
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
Posted: April 26 2020 at 21:19
yeah... hopefully he and your country are.. I doubt many are in fact except for the FAUX news bubble MAGA crowd.. Wall Streeters and investors who seem to be completely disconnected with reality... and thinking still of that 'V' is happening and all will return to normal at the flick of a switch. The Oil Industry here was the first en mass causaulty.. it is not likely to be the last.
At the very least you would think they would understand the butchers bill for all this... on top of the excesses of the GOP tax cuts and already substantial deficit are going to leave a Government trillions.. perhaps by the time this is over.. 10's of trillions in the hole. Say goodbye to not just your tax cuts Corporate America.. but a large percentage of your profits.. everyone.. but especially them is going to pay for this. Does Wall St. seriously not see this coming...
and one really has to laugh.. and you thought Bush Classic left an economic mess for Clinton.. oh wait.. Bush Light topped that.. well... I pity BIden...and whoever his VP is for who really expects Biden to live out 4 years.
they'll have the grand prize of economic disasters left to clean up after the Republicans have been swept out of Washington.
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
Posted: April 26 2020 at 23:01
micky wrote:
yeah... hopefully he and your country are.. I doubt many are in fact except for the FAUX news bubble MAGA crowd.. Wall Streeters and investors who seem to be completely disconnected with reality... and thinking still of that 'V' is happening and all will return to normal at the flick of a switch. The Oil Industry here was the first en mass causaulty.. it is not likely to be the last.
At the very least you would think they would understand the butchers bill for all this... on top of the excesses of the GOP tax cuts and already substantial deficit are going to leave a Government trillions.. perhaps by the time this is over.. 10's of trillions in the hole. Say goodbye to not just your tax cuts Corporate America.. but a large percentage of your profits.. everyone.. but especially them is going to pay for this. Does Wall St. seriously not see this coming...
and one really has to laugh.. and you thought Bush Classic left an economic mess for Clinton.. oh wait.. Bush Light topped that.. well... I pity BIden...and whoever his VP is for who really expects Biden to live out 4 years.
they'll have the grand prize of economic disasters left to clean up after the Republicans have been swept out of Washington.
At least Classic raised taxes as a recognition that what he himself had called voodonomics when he ran against Reagan wasn't working. Dubya left the first sh*tpile, now there's gonna be an even bigger one. Circumstances have conspired to somewhat shield Trump from the blame on THAT one (but not for his epic misguiding and mishandling of the crisis itself) because many countries are forced to experiment with unconventional solutions that will surely lead to new highs of deficit spending. In India, we are talking of monetising deficits, something we stopped in the late 90s to get spending under control. But there is a clear recognition now that this is not the time for austerity.
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
Posted: April 27 2020 at 02:00
Seeing as appeal to authority is very popular in this thread, I am going to make one of my own and post Taleb's thoughts on this. And he beautifully articulates why economy v/s health is actually not a trade off. What I have been saying in essence, there was a window of time to act proactively in Jan-Feb, a window that has been wasted. "They did not want to spend pennies in January, now they are going to spend trillions", he says. Exactly.
I am not pulling my numbers out of a hat. These statistics come with all the necessary caveats.
Okay, one last final try to attempt to persuade you that these numbers are a meaningless discussion point.
I have quoted below from the site you sent the link to, not I. Is the point finally made, at long last? Lots of people have died. f**k me, I know that. I am not stupid. What none of us know is the accurate number of both deaths and infections. Can we at least agree on this and move on?
Why is data on testing important?
No country knows the total number of people infected with COVID-19. All we know is the infection status of those who have been tested. All those who have a lab-confirmed infection are counted as confirmed cases.
This means that the counts of confirmed cases depend on how much a country actually tests. Without testing there is no data.
You are either stupid or deliberately misleading, and I don't think you are stupid. This is the only thing you consider worth quoting? Then let me show you this:
By the way: I don't deny we need further testing. But sitting on the fence until this has been done will hardly get us anywhere.
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13742
Posted: April 27 2020 at 10:18
^ and you are merely confirming my point. The graph you show is confirmed deaths and confirmed cases ratio. It is very high, and is appalling.
It is, though, meaningless. It is not the actual mortality rate. For that, you need the true numbers of both, and nobody would appear to have that, because, as you infer, and I have said ad nauseum, it requires testing to get the true number of confirmed cases.
For that reason, the fatality rate quoted is meaningless. It is mathematical bollocks. Utter nonsense. What is the point of it, excepting to scare people utterly witless?
I am not stupid. Neither are you.
I am not deliberately misleading. I have merely stated the bleeding obvious. What are you? So obsessed by misleading data to make an obtuse point to win a debate? Why? What is the purpose?
So, in order to close this, and to prevent a further intervention from Dean, the Prof, and others, I will say this.
1. We are agreed that the confirmed mortality rate is utterly dreadful. Shocking. A terrible loss of life (and, no, I am not laughing or taking the piss)
2. Every single human life is precious
3. The figures you quote are not the true reflection of the actual mortality rate. They cannot possibly be so, because they are based on numbers which are palpably incomplete, for whatever reason
Any chance of leaving it at that?
Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
Joined: December 23 2009
Location: Emerald City
Status: Offline
Points: 17909
Posted: April 27 2020 at 10:21
rogerthat wrote:
Seeing as appeal to authority is very popular in this thread, I am going to make one of my own and post Taleb's thoughts on this. And he beautifully articulates why economy v/s health is actually not a trade off. What I have been saying in essence, there was a window of time to act proactively in Jan-Feb, a window that has been wasted. "They did not want to spend pennies in January, now they are going to spend trillions", he says. Exactly.
He wrote about this in 2007?? Nostradamus predicted 911 supposedly. I predict another pandemic in 25+yrs and it will originate in China, WHO will not be prepared to advise the world what to do nor will they react quickly enough...so there.
What exactly, that Taleb does not articulate, should have been done in Jan-Feb? His best statement was that nobody knew anything about Covid-19. Up till about 2 weeks ago the world thought the first US death was in Washington state, as it turns out not surprisingly the first was in California. Most of what he talks about is economics....
Pretty much every country was not prepared for such a pandemic both medically and logistically, not enough of everything to satisfy anything. I would think most hospitals that were affected saw a 50-80% increase in attendance and some 100% increase...daily!! I highly doubt any hospital has that much inventory on hand. That's an easy solution, stock up on everything and I am sure all hospitals and emergency groups will have more than enough by years end, certainly before my prediction comes to pass.
The WHO was not prepared to advise the world what to do, that is their job. Basically left every country to fend for themselves. At the end of all this, if that happens, WHO has a lot of questions to answer for, especially their relationship with China and how they do and don't interact with them.
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
Posted: April 27 2020 at 10:37
Catcher10 wrote:
rogerthat wrote:
Seeing as appeal to authority is very popular in this thread, I am going to make one of my own and post Taleb's thoughts on this. And he beautifully articulates why economy v/s health is actually not a trade off. What I have been saying in essence, there was a window of time to act proactively in Jan-Feb, a window that has been wasted. "They did not want to spend pennies in January, now they are going to spend trillions", he says. Exactly.
He wrote about this in 2007?? Nostradamus predicted 911 supposedly. I predict another pandemic in 25+yrs and it will originate in China, WHO will not be prepared to advise the world what to do nor will they react quickly enough...so there.
What exactly, that Taleb does not articulate, should have been done in Jan-Feb? His best statement was that nobody knew anything about Covid-19. Up till about 2 weeks ago the world thought the first US death was in Washington state, as it turns out not surprisingly the first was in California. Most of what he talks about is economics....
Pretty much every country was not prepared for such a pandemic both medically and logistically, not enough of everything to satisfy anything. I would think most hospitals that were affected saw a 50-80% increase in attendance and some 100% increase...daily!! I highly doubt any hospital has that much inventory on hand. That's an easy solution, stock up on everything and I am sure all hospitals and emergency groups will have more than enough by years end, certainly before my prediction comes to pass.
The WHO was not prepared to advise the world what to do, that is their job. Basically left every country to fend for themselves. At the end of all this, if that happens, WHO has a lot of questions to answer for, especially their relationship with China and how they do and don't interact with them.
He also predicted the financial crisis in 2007. He also predicted Trump's election win. Not an outright prediction but I remember his words, "Better get used to seeing Trump in the White House" going back to early 2016.
And as for what should have been done, he said it very clearly, that air travel should have been stopped right in Jan and the airline industry alone given a bailout. Instead of an industrywide, expensive bailout which is what USA has had to sign on. Like many other countries who missed the bus because of what he characterises correctly as penny wise pound foolish thinking. Trump certainly knew enough about covid to block travel from China. The mistake was not shutting down travel from Europe until too late and this is the mistake that many other countries made.
And as for China withholding information, well, that didn't stop US intelligence from issuing a pandemic warning as early as Nov 2019. Trump as well as NATO allies who were supposedly also warned about the pandemic have a lot to answer as to why they still dithered over action. What's the endgame here, is what I am still wondering. And it's much more diabolical than the narrow health v/s economy tradeoffs being discussed here.
Joined: June 02 2005
Location: Germany
Status: Offline
Points: 10266
Posted: April 27 2020 at 11:09
lazland wrote:
^ and you are merely confirming my point. The graph you show is confirmed deaths and confirmed cases ratio. It is very high, and is appalling.
It is, though, meaningless. It is not the actual mortality rate. For that, you need the true numbers of both, and nobody would appear to have that, because, as you infer, and I have said ad nauseum, it requires testing to get the true number of confirmed cases.
For that reason, the fatality rate quoted is meaningless. It is mathematical bollocks. Utter nonsense. What is the point of it, excepting to scare people utterly witless?
I am not stupid. Neither are you.
I am not deliberately misleading. I have merely stated the bleeding obvious. What are you? So obsessed by misleading data to make an obtuse point to win a debate? Why? What is the purpose?
So, in order to close this, and to prevent a further intervention from Dean, the Prof, and others, I will say this.
1. We are agreed that the confirmed mortality rate is utterly dreadful. Shocking. A terrible loss of life (and, no, I am not laughing or taking the piss)
2. Every single human life is precious
3. The figures you quote are not the true reflection of the actual mortality rate. They cannot possibly be so, because they are based on numbers which are palpably incomplete, for whatever reason
Any chance of leaving it at that?
No, and I will tell you why: Are the numbers inaccurate? They most certainly are. Are they therefore meaningless? No, not at all. Let me point out why: Let's for the sake of the argument assume that the number of infections is off by a factor of twenty. This is an extremely high factor, and I doubt that they are that much off; it would mean we only know of 5% of the infected people. This would, however, still mean that the Coronavirus is ten times as lethal as the flu. So these numbers are by no means meaningless.
By the way: The estimation of Anthony Fauci is actually that the Coronavirus is ten times as lethal as the flu.
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13742
Posted: April 27 2020 at 11:37
BaldFriede wrote:
lazland wrote:
^ and you are merely confirming my point. The graph you show is confirmed deaths and confirmed cases ratio. It is very high, and is appalling.
It is, though, meaningless. It is not the actual mortality rate. For that, you need the true numbers of both, and nobody would appear to have that, because, as you infer, and I have said ad nauseum, it requires testing to get the true number of confirmed cases.
For that reason, the fatality rate quoted is meaningless. It is mathematical bollocks. Utter nonsense. What is the point of it, excepting to scare people utterly witless?
I am not stupid. Neither are you.
I am not deliberately misleading. I have merely stated the bleeding obvious. What are you? So obsessed by misleading data to make an obtuse point to win a debate? Why? What is the purpose?
So, in order to close this, and to prevent a further intervention from Dean, the Prof, and others, I will say this.
1. We are agreed that the confirmed mortality rate is utterly dreadful. Shocking. A terrible loss of life (and, no, I am not laughing or taking the piss)
2. Every single human life is precious
3. The figures you quote are not the true reflection of the actual mortality rate. They cannot possibly be so, because they are based on numbers which are palpably incomplete, for whatever reason
Any chance of leaving it at that?
No, and I will tell you why: Are the numbers inaccurate? They most certainly are. Are they therefore meaningless? No, not at all. Let me point out why: Let's for the sake of the argument assume that the number of infections is off by a factor of twenty. This is an extremely high factor, and I doubt that they are that much off; it would mean we only know of 5% of the infected people. This would, however, still mean that the Coronavirus is ten times as lethal as the flu. So these numbers are by no means meaningless.
By the way: The estimation of Anthony Fauci is actually that the Coronavirus is ten times as lethal as the flu.
Yep, and once again, you are merely confirming everything I have said.
Estimates, my dear Friede. Estimates.
Let us for the sake of argument assume that the number of infections is off by a factor of fifty, as has been stated by more than one bunch of boffins.
Or, let us for the sake of argument assume that the number of infections is off by a factor of ten.
Or let us assume that the answer to the question of life, the universe, and everything is 42. Or maybe it is an unanswerable question. Or maybe it is God, Buddha, Allah, the porcupine at the end of the road.
Let me try once more.
The number of confirmed cases is itself very much open to question, especially from the proletariat paradise that is China. Ditto the number of confirmed deaths. It is most certainly wrong in my country, by the government’s own admission, because they only counted until very recently hospital deaths.
Thus, the very foundation of the equation bringing a mortality rate is wrong. It is utter nonsense. It is in a very real political sense, given the decisions being taken, utterly meaningless. That is why the politicians are relying upon mathematical models by epidemiologists, who, as I have pointed out before, seem unable to agree amongst themselves. It is an utter truism that a mathematical model is only as reliable as the data which is input into it. Even a slight variation in said data produces wildly varying results. ipso facto.
So, one more time.
Fact. The figures producing confirmed mortality rates cannot be relied upon. They are not accurate. They are a fiction. That makes them, in policy terms, absolutely meaningless, and, in fact, somewhat dangerous socially and economically (sorry, the last bit is an opinion, but never mind, you know what I mean).
Opinion. You believe Covid leads to a higher mortality rate than flu. I believe that it is about the same, or only a wee bit higher. We can argue about that for ever, if you wish. The fact is nobody really knows. I most certainly don’t, and neither do you.
Opinion. You believe Covid is ten times more lethal than flu. Is it? On what basis do you make that statement? Please enlighten me with real empirical evidence. I have no idea what the true mortality rate is. I think it is well below 1%, but at least I have the good grace to accept that this is an opinion, and not a fact. I might well be wrong. If so, I will acknowledge that when I see enough evidence to tell me I am wrong.
Fact. Owing the lack of testing in many countries, false reporting, deliberate or not, in others, and the fact that many persons get either no symptoms, or very mild symptoms, and, therefore, have not even been tested, nobody anywhere has any idea at all of the true number of people infected. Nobody. That is why they rely on Mathematical models, all of which are open to vast interpretation. Ipso facto.
Opinion. I am of the opinion that the reaction of many governments in virtual lockdown of entire economies is a short sighted and disastrous reaction to panic, hysteria, and poor empirical evidence. You may well disagree. That is fine. That is what happens with opinions. They are open to debate and argument. Neither of us can say with utter certainty that we are right. Neither of us.
I am quite content to bore everybody sh*tless with this for as long as you wish. Why? Because my fundamental point that the mortality rate figures you are bandying about are wrong. Wrong. Wrong. It is impossible for them to be right. Impossible. Impossible. Impossible. See, I can go on, and on, and on, and on, because what really annoys me, what really gets the old blood pressure up and me reaching for the beer, rather than one of Dean’s cold pressed lattes is having to continually state the f**king, bloody, sodding obvious. I get even more annoyed when people cannot differentiate between fact and opinion.
By all means argue with me about opinion. I welcome it.
However, please don’t insult mine and others intelligence by making wild statements based upon wholly inaccurate data.
Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
Joined: December 05 2007
Location: Germany
Status: Offline
Points: 2720
Posted: April 27 2020 at 12:51
In a way both of you are correct.
Too many people have gone undiagnosed and recovered, and too many people have died without proper diagnosis. Even now, the numbers are accounted on differing criteria in different areas. Some countries record the cause of death as non-corona related if another underlying illness exists, and some don’t, etc.
Just for statistical purposes, correct and complete testing will not supply the data required for comprehensive results; that time has passed and can't be corrected.
Even if you have some isolated area that you could analyse from scratch (a cruise ship or something similar), the study group would probably be too small for the data to be applied to the whole pandemic. Close, but not close enough.
So in a way, we probably won’t know the exact numbers, but then again, we don’t have the exact numbers for seasonal flu either. Does it matter? Probably not. At least not for statistical purposes alone.
So we don’t really have a choice but to make do with estimates and work with them. Not ideal, but not a deal-breaker either.
What worries me a bit is that the numbers we have at the moment are (still) vague enough so that they can be interpreted and (mis)used for differing purposes. Open everything up again? Sure,why not; look at the numbers. Stay shut down? Sure, why not; look at the numbers.
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13742
Posted: April 27 2020 at 13:05
npjnpj wrote:
In a way both of you are correct.
Too many people have gone undiagnosed and recovered, and too many people have died without proper diagnosis. Even now, the numbers are accounted on differing criteria in different areas. Some countries record the cause of death as non-corona related if another underlying illness exists, and some don’t, etc.
Just for statistical purposes, correct and complete testing will not supply the data required for comprehensive results; that time has passed and can't be corrected.
Even if you have some isolated area that you could analyse from scratch (a cruise ship or something similar), the study group would probably be too small for the data to be applied to the whole pandemic. Close, but not close enough.
So in a way, we probably won’t know the exact numbers, but then again, we don’t have the exact numbers for seasonal flu either. Does it matter? Probably not. At least not for statistical purposes alone.
So we don’t really have a choice but to make do with estimates and work with them. Not ideal, but not a deal-breaker either.
What worries me a bit is that the numbers we have at the moment are (still) vague enough so that they can be interpreted and (mis)used for differing purposes. Open everything up again? Sure,why not; look at the numbers. Stay shut down? Sure, why not; look at the numbers.
Thank you.
Again, thank you.
At long last, someone gets it.
Thank you.
Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
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Covid-19 and the madness of crowds
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Lewian wrote:
