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Snicolette View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 11:57
Originally posted by dr wu23 dr wu23 wrote:

I'm certainly not a political expert but I don't understand why people think Trump will easily win in 2020...
The only people still supporting him these days is his core base. He's insulted just about everyone else so one would think he has even more people in the general population against him than 2 years ago. And he barely won then...indeed he lost the popular vote and only won due to the Electoral College vote.
Last time approx 50% of eligible voters voted and only about 25% for each candidate....one would think he has alienated even more on the left and middle since then. If the Dems can 'get out the vote' he'll lose imho.


Probably the same people that think he can "easily," win are the ones who believe his inauguration crowd was as large as he stated it was, afterwards.  Your final sentence is critical here, Dr Wu23.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 12:49
Originally posted by Snicolette Snicolette wrote:

Originally posted by dr wu23 dr wu23 wrote:

I'm certainly not a political expert but I don't understand why people think Trump will easily win in 2020...
The only people still supporting him these days is his core base. He's insulted just about everyone else so one would think he has even more people in the general population against him than 2 years ago. And he barely won then...indeed he lost the popular vote and only won due to the Electoral College vote.
Last time approx 50% of eligible voters voted and only about 25% for each candidate....one would think he has alienated even more on the left and middle since then. If the Dems can 'get out the vote' he'll lose imho.


Probably the same people that think he can "easily," win are the ones who believe his inauguration crowd was as large as he stated it was, afterwards.  Your final sentence is critical here, Dr Wu23.  

His approval rating has hovered from 39-42%...not exactly a mandate...I'm surprised he won 2 years ago.

Blame the electoral college.....and Putin.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 13:23
Yep!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 14:24
I overheard two people about 19 yrs old saying they plan to vote for Warren.   I also heard some people saying they're worried about old Joe.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 21:10
^ I tell ya my friend..  the more we go.. the deeper we get into this. I do think she is going to win this. Especially since it seems Biden is slipping into his dotage right in front of our eyes.  Best to be done now rather than in a year.  I think when the sh*t gets real as the year ends..  his one real claim to being front runner..  the ability to beat Trump will have pretty much evaporated.   The only way Trump might win a 2nd term is if the Democrats put up a space cadet (Sanders.. who isn't going to get the nomination.. so there's that) or Biden shows his age and declining facilities when everyone is watching.. 

A lot has been made of how his handlers have been presenting him..   in the heat of the campaign. he won't have that luxery to rest and recup between campaign apperances. I foresee a potential disaster if Biden gets the nomination. However I really don't think he is going to.  As we get deeper into this. .and more people pay more attention.. and he continues to slip up and .. well. .show his age. I think we will see his support drop sharply. For they will see what some like me have... he in fact is Trump's best HOPE to win a 2nd term and the Democrats.. no matter how much Biden is liked.. will never take the chance of nominating Sanders.. nor Biden. For Trump might not beat them.. but he could.. and that is way too much of a chance for many Democrats to take.

 And as I've noted.. Warren is best placed to pick up some sloppy seconds. Unlike Sanders.. she and her policies have a strong appeal to the center. sh*t man..  she got standing O's deep in MAGA country. and hell yeah's from .. of all people.. Tucker Carlson.  Sure the oppo will try to paint her as a socialist..  a raditical leftie .. but she really is far from anything like that..  

oh she is radical in a way..  got to be to attempt to change the system of corruption and greed by Corporate America.


Edited by micky - August 13 2019 at 21:13
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 21:35
Originally posted by dr wu23 dr wu23 wrote:

I'm certainly not a political expert but I don't understand why people think Trump will easily win in 2020...



don't have to be an expert Doc..  I think I have made it very clear with the analysis I did .. as to why Trump..  not won.. but HRC lost.

800 thousand votes..  those were the votes that Obama got in 2012 in those 3 key states that didn't vote for HRC.. or Trump. They either stayed home.. or as I noted.. and suprising so few 'experts' have touched on..

they voted 3rd party protest against both candidates. The simple answer is if Democrats turn out to vote and vote for the damn Democrat.. Trump has as much chance to win as I .. yep.. do have of growing an extra 12 inches and becoming that famous porn star.

For if Democrats turn out in 2020 as they did in 2018.. those 3 states not only become unwinable for Trump.. but possibly flip red/purple states like Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia and now with Texas are very much in play. If Democrats turn out the question really isn't if Trump can win.. but how badly does he get beaten.  

As I just noted to David...  God may favor me and zap an extra foot into my life.. and he may indeed be the sadist so many see him as .. and grace Trump with a Democrat that a) risks suppressing turnoout..  mainly a fear with Sanders and losing moderates.. or the much more likely case.. b) Biden wins it.. and then in the heat of direct election campaign against a no holds barred knife fighter like Trump... shows his age and suspected infimrity... and then .. good God alimight.. what choices a Democratic voter might face.  And those are the f**king centrists hahahah..   Progressies will likely abandon Biden by the droves.. and say.. ok .. Trump will be gone in 4.. and after 2 failed attempts to elect the unelectable..  who lost the unloseable.. perhaps in 2024 the party will listen to 'us' and stop nominating 'names' and those deemed 'next up' in senority. and start really listening to the progressive wing.

However I really don't think Biden is going to get the nomination..and for just that reason.  far from being the best suited to beat Trump (personally I've always thought it was warren with her strong appeal to left, center, AND right).. but in fact Biden might be the one candidate Trump has the best chance to beat.


Edited by micky - August 13 2019 at 21:37
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 21:39
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

^ I tell ya my friend..  the more we go.. the deeper we get into this. I do think she is going to win this. Especially since it seems Biden is slipping into his dotage right in front of our eyes.  Best to be done now rather than in a year.  I think when the sh*t gets real as the year ends..  his one real claim to being front runner..  the ability to beat Trump will have pretty much evaporated.   The only way Trump might win a 2nd term is if the Democrats put up a space cadet (Sanders.. who isn't going to get the nomination.. so there's that) or Biden shows his age and declining facilities when everyone is watching.. 

A lot has been made of how his handlers have been presenting him..   in the heat of the campaign. he won't have that luxery to rest and recup between campaign apperances. I foresee a potential disaster if Biden gets the nomination. However I really don't think he is going to.  As we get deeper into this. .and more people pay more attention.. and he continues to slip up and .. well. .show his age. I think we will see his support drop sharply. For they will see what some like me have... he in fact is Trump's best HOPE to win a 2nd term and the Democrats.. no matter how much Biden is liked.. will never take the chance of nominating Sanders.. nor Biden. For Trump might not beat them.. but he could.. and that is way too much of a chance for many Democrats to take.
And as I've noted.. Warren is best placed to pick up some sloppy seconds. Unlike Sanders.. she and her policies have a strong appeal to the center. sh*t man..  she got standing O's deep in MAGA country. and hell yeah's from .. of all people.. Tucker Carlson.  Sure the oppo will try to paint her as a socialist..  a raditical leftie .. but she really is far from anything like that..  

oh she is radical in a way..  got to be to attempt to change the system of corruption and greed by Corporate America.

She's worse than radical, she's an intelligent woman.

I have a bad feeling about the whole election, I see more Orange in our future even if Warren gets the nom.

Oy.   Hard times.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 21:51

I get.. I do...  that misogyny exists...  that some simply will not vote for a woman.   But does anyone really think that a) those morons.. neanderthals.. are f**king Democrats hahah.They are largely Republicans. Yet what of those that didn't vote for her.. Democats that didn't.  Democatic voters abandoned HRC not because she was a woman.. for one.. she was a corrupt centrist Corporate Democrat that Bernie voter.. Progressives HATED...  she was simply unlikeable nor inspirational even to many of her supporters (deviant sexual fantasies and admiration of that ass umm hmm aside..). and had 20 years of slime, character attacks and assinations working against her. Oh and it didn't help that many never took Trump seriously and just sat the election out not liking her perhaps but never really thinking that Trump could win. 

I really can't believe that this country.. with its history can elect a black man ...  and suspected Muslim hahah.. to be President and not a woman.  I just can't believe that David.. and again.. it really doesn't matter what the morons and neatherthals think.. it is Democrats..  if they get out and vote..  they win.  Simple as that.


Edited by micky - August 13 2019 at 21:54
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 22:36
Originally posted by Barbu Barbu wrote:

He will bite the dust in 2020.

Uneducated, working class white men are not the majority in this country so I would tend to agree with that since the majority of those who would vote for him fall into that category. That being said, Democrats still need to up their game. It's like a basketball team that is winning by ten points. They can't get cocky and coast they still need to bring the heat so the other team doesn't catch up and surpass them.


Edited by AFlowerKingCrimson - August 13 2019 at 22:38
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 23:38
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

I get.. I do...  that misogyny exists...  that some simply will not vote for a woman.   But does anyone really think that a) those morons.. neanderthals.. are f**king Democrats hahah.They are largely Republicans. Yet what of those that didn't vote for her.. Democats that didn't.  Democatic voters abandoned HRC not because she was a woman.. for one.. she was a corrupt centrist Corporate Democrat that Bernie voter.. Progressives HATED...  she was simply unlikeable nor inspirational even to many of her supporters (deviant sexual fantasies and admiration of that ass umm hmm aside..). and had 20 years of slime, character attacks and assinations working against her. Oh and it didn't help that many never took Trump seriously and just sat the election out not liking her perhaps but never really thinking that Trump could win. 

I really can't believe that this country.. with its history can elect a black man ...  and suspected Muslim hahah.. to be President and not a woman.  I just can't believe that David.. and again.. it really doesn't matter what the morons and neatherthals think.. it is Democrats..  if they get out and vote..  they win.  Simple as that.

No no, not because she's a woman.   What I mean is that if a Donald Trump can win the presidency once, some fairly unknown progressive intellectual ain't gonna cut it.   It just ain't--  Trump has too much support from people who vote and who continue to embrace a territorial Not-in-My-Backyard attitude.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2019 at 23:50
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:


I get.. I do...  that misogyny exists...  that some simply will not vote for a woman.   But does anyone really think that a) those morons.. neanderthals.. are f**king Democrats hahah.They are largely Republicans. Yet what of those that didn't vote for her.. Democats that didn't.  Democatic voters abandoned HRC not because she was a woman.. for one.. she was a corrupt centrist Corporate Democrat that Bernie voter.. Progressives HATED...  she was simply unlikeable nor inspirational even to many of her supporters (deviant sexual fantasies and admiration of that ass umm hmm aside..). and had 20 years of slime, character attacks and assinations working against her. Oh and it didn't help that many never took Trump seriously and just sat the election out not liking her perhaps but never really thinking that Trump could win. 

I really can't believe that this country.. with its history can elect a black man ...  and suspected Muslim hahah.. to be President and not a woman.  I just can't believe that David.. and again.. it really doesn't matter what the morons and neatherthals think.. it is Democrats..  if they get out and vote..  they win.  Simple as that.



The no. 1 news channel in America still has, unless I am mistaken, those translucent glass tables designed to let viewers see the legs of female newscasters wearing short skirts. So much for the crusade against Ailes. And it's not just Fox. Chris Matthews openly flirted with Erin Burnett back when she was in CNBC. This is not normal in many other countries and normalising it has consequences. So, yes, misogyny is a huge barrier to jump over for most female candidates.

That said, the issue is also of Democrats not yet grasping Trump's style or working out a way to counter it. In tennis, there is a term called losing on your own terms. Typically consists of a serve volleyer rushing to his death against a baseliner picking him off over and over. Seems to me as if Democrats are setting themselves up for something like this. Like they are not prepared to get dirty to beat Trump. Trump already has Sleepy Joe and Pocahontas ready for Biden and Warren. What's the counter going to be.

Edited by rogerthat - August 14 2019 at 02:22
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 01:32
I still say Trump is going to take 2020.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 08:04
Originally posted by Frenetic Zetetic Frenetic Zetetic wrote:

I still say Trump is going to take 2020.

Why?

Edited by Easy Money - August 14 2019 at 08:04
Help the victims of the russian invasion:
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 13:46
Even if Trump winds up getting his ass handed to him in 2020, everyone that is anti-trump should be of the mind that his reelection is possible to likely and mobilize to get as many people as possible to get out there and vote, especially if you live in one of the key 5-8 states. 

(That said, no outcome this year will surprise me. Trump could win yuge, lose yuge, barely win, or barely lose and it will make sense to me)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 15:22
I can't see him winning without help from Russia. If he had enough supporters to help him getting elected(Russia aside)I'm guessing he has even fewer now(especially if there is any truth to the polls). 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 16:35
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

I get.. I do...  that misogyny exists...  that some simply will not vote for a woman.   But does anyone really think that a) those morons.. neanderthals.. are f**king Democrats hahah.They are largely Republicans. Yet what of those that didn't vote for her.. Democats that didn't.  Democatic voters abandoned HRC not because she was a woman.. for one.. she was a corrupt centrist Corporate Democrat that Bernie voter.. Progressives HATED...  she was simply unlikeable nor inspirational even to many of her supporters (deviant sexual fantasies and admiration of that ass umm hmm aside..). and had 20 years of slime, character attacks and assinations working against her. Oh and it didn't help that many never took Trump seriously and just sat the election out not liking her perhaps but never really thinking that Trump could win. 

I really can't believe that this country.. with its history can elect a black man ...  and suspected Muslim hahah.. to be President and not a woman.  I just can't believe that David.. and again.. it really doesn't matter what the morons and neatherthals think.. it is Democrats..  if they get out and vote..  they win.  Simple as that.

No no, not because she's a woman.   What I mean is that if a Donald Trump can win the presidency once, some fairly unknown progressive intellectual ain't gonna cut it.   It just ain't--  Trump has too much support from people who vote and who continue to embrace a territorial Not-in-My-Backyard attitude.



ahh.. was the first thing that jumped to mind when I read your post. Raff and i last weekend had a rather .. umm.. 'animated'  LOL discussion about that very topic..  misogyny and our politics.  Think I'm rather intense online.. discuss politics with me in person.  Think there were more than a few times I nearly shattered my beer bottle on the table when making an emphatic point. LOL  I'm much more laid back and easy going than Raff in pretty much everything.. but politics.  Even after all these years it is a side to me that Raff probably still hasn't got used to. 

as far as what you meant... David..  my point is.. and it is valid one as it not opinion per se.. but born out of hard numbers and data. Trump did not WIN the election... HRC lost it... or more to the point. .those very progressives..  gave teh election to Trump by still being pissed about their idol being 'f**ked over' by the DNC and HRC .. or for the more mature of his substantial number of followers..  profound policy and ideological problems with her.. what she stood for. 

add in to that cocktail.. the general notion that HRC had it in the bag.. and that their votes were not needed. And let's face it.. be completely honest.. did ANYONE.. anyone really expect in their worst appraisals of Trump to match the reality of what we got.  

I mean seriously..  if the D.A. in El Paso had a pair.. he'd charge Trump as an accessory to murder.  

if anyone claims to have foreseen .. our the President even being considered as a possible or likely inspiration to mass murder.. I will call bullsh*t and hound their asses off of the forum as only I can.

2020?  Unlike 2016 we now know what we really feared is much worse.. and more to the point..  he did get elected in 2016 so any sense of complaintcy is ..  f**king ZERO haha..  look at some of the comments here. Look at yours my friend..  no poll showing Trump trailing is going to asauge the fear that Trump will pull a royal flush out of his ass. Democrats are very likely to show in great numbers much as they did in 2018. Only in a few worst case scenarios might the Democrats no show.. and only then will Trump have a chance at a 2nd term.


Edited by micky - August 14 2019 at 16:38
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 16:58
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:


I get.. I do...  that misogyny exists...  that some simply will not vote for a woman.   But does anyone really think that a) those morons.. neanderthals.. are f**king Democrats hahah.They are largely Republicans. Yet what of those that didn't vote for her.. Democats that didn't.  Democatic voters abandoned HRC not because she was a woman.. for one.. she was a corrupt centrist Corporate Democrat that Bernie voter.. Progressives HATED...  she was simply unlikeable nor inspirational even to many of her supporters (deviant sexual fantasies and admiration of that ass umm hmm aside..). and had 20 years of slime, character attacks and assinations working against her. Oh and it didn't help that many never took Trump seriously and just sat the election out not liking her perhaps but never really thinking that Trump could win. 

I really can't believe that this country.. with its history can elect a black man ...  and suspected Muslim hahah.. to be President and not a woman.  I just can't believe that David.. and again.. it really doesn't matter what the morons and neatherthals think.. it is Democrats..  if they get out and vote..  they win.  Simple as that.



The no. 1 news channel in America still has, unless I am mistaken, those translucent glass tables designed to let viewers see the legs of female newscasters wearing short skirts. So much for the crusade against Ailes. And it's not just Fox. Chris Matthews openly flirted with Erin Burnett back when she was in CNBC. This is not normal in many other countries and normalising it has consequences. So, yes, misogyny is a huge barrier to jump over for most female candidates.

That said, the issue is also of Democrats not yet grasping Trump's style or working out a way to counter it. In tennis, there is a term called losing on your own terms. Typically consists of a serve volleyer rushing to his death against a baseliner picking him off over and over. Seems to me as if Democrats are setting themselves up for something like this. Like they are not prepared to get dirty to beat Trump. Trump already has Sleepy Joe and Pocahontas ready for Biden and Warren. What's the counter going to be.

well..  who is is playing to with Sleepy Joe and Ponchohantus ... his own supporters. Red meat for the meatheads to get them fired up...

how to counter that easy.. to fire up Democrats? HAH!!!!  if we want to go G rated..  how about some heartwarming campaign ads showing children in f**king cages.. or if we want to go hardcore... how about some that video footage from inside WalMart..with a montage of his speeches over the sounds of gunfire

your point is taken though.. what is different this year is hinted at by those numbers I posted several pages ago.  Trump has become SO polarizing .. and has made exactly NADDA.. ZIPPO.. NO effort to appeal to anyone but his own supporters.. there are very few that are undecided about Trump. He is either loved.. or hated... and as I've said a hundred times already.. and likelly will another 500 times in the next 18 months. 38-43% of the vote.. those that love him/support him gets you massacred in a general election.  Even Mondale got a higher percentage as a point of reference.

It goes back to what I've been saying..  this is all about Democratic turnout.. if the Democrats don't f**k this up.. or even if they do and the potential worst cases don't happen and Biden doesn't fall asleep on stage.. or f**king fall dead hahah...  Trump has pretty much no chance to win.

that is hte significance of 2018...  it was the highest turnout ..ever...  it was a dress rehearsal of 2020 and as we have seen. Trump has gone even further off the rails..  and then there is the economy.. that recession likely isn't waiting until Nov 2020..and when it hits.. he likely loses ANY chance to win.  He'll likely go permanent sub 40.. which unless there is a split in the Democratic Party/viable 3rd Party candidate.. Trump will have no chance if the one thing he can point to as a successs.. goes underwater.. 

and it is going to .. soon it appears 


Edited by micky - August 14 2019 at 17:02
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 19:02
Everybody knows that the creepy clown will never admit it if he loses. He will play the victim and will tell that the dirty dems have cheated or something like that. However, one thing is for sure, he won't leave voluntarily.

You're in deep trouble with this guy folks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 19:17
and (if it happens) my question is: what are your options, how do you kick him out?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2019 at 19:53
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Unlike 2016 we now know what we really feared is much worse.. and more to the point..  he did get elected in 2016 so any sense of complaintcy is ..  f**king ZERO haha..  look at some of the comments here. Look at yours my friend..  no poll showing Trump trailing is going to asauge the fear that Trump will pull a royal flush out of his ass. Democrats are very likely to show in great numbers much as they did in 2018. Only in a few worst case scenarios might the Democrats no show.. and only then will Trump have a chance at a 2nd term.

Absolutely--  no fears assuaged on my part, and no poll will curb those fears.

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