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King of Loss ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: April 21 2005 Location: Boston, MA Status: Offline Points: 16889 |
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You read The Hill? I saw this article not too long ago.
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King of Loss ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: April 21 2005 Location: Boston, MA Status: Offline Points: 16889 |
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As for interesting graphics and opinion, I'm going to post a link on here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html
Not surprised at all by this article.
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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^ not surprised either
^^ oh I love that site. Along with David and probably more than a few other. I have long dropped cable TV and get my informaton straight from the internet. Even there I am fairly picky about where I get it from. It is one of my holy trinity of information sites along with Politico which has a slight left of center tilt and Rollcall which is pretty much non partisan as it gets. While TheHill has a slight right of center tilt, mainly in its oppo pieces, all 3 are great for simply reporting what is going on without spin or substantial bias. As well as having interesting analysis pieces. Politico also has a bit of emphasis on the historical side. Very educational. One of the best pieces of political writing I've seen in many years was the piece they did prior to the 2016 election about the profound long term impact of the Hart-Cellar Act and how that is changing our politics. As I've often said, I am smart enough and make sure I'm educated enough to make decisions and draw inferences/conclusion on my own. Don't need to be force fed what to think.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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speaking of TheHill.. nice article this morning on the upcoming battle for the Senate. Democrats, with reason, are privately very bullish on the chances of retaking the Senate. Guess who has even less an approval number than Trump.. yep McConnell. The reverse-Pelosi affect will likely loom large in 2020.
In large part, and I agreed with this, they do say who the candidate is might be the tipping point between getting the Senate or not. As voters are increasingly voting straight ticket and that trend doesn't really apply much to Republicans due to their tribal insular politics but more to Democrats who had always been more pragmatic and splitting tickets. Thus while red state Democrats are pretty much all gone.. there are a larage number of blue state Republicans up in 2020.. and even more in 2022. They are very much in danger. I think the question really isn't if they beat Trump.. short of a complete disaster they probably aren't losing in 2020.. but the question will be.. by how much do they win and through coat tails how much do they expand the House majority. The blueing of the suburbs only started in 2018.. there are still a fair number of seats to be taken from the Republicans that they barely held onto in 2018. Just from Texas alone There were also a number of Republican close shaves — seats that stayed red, but were much closer than expected. Seven-term Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, won by just 4 points, down from a 19-point win in 2016. Rep. Kenny Marchant, also seeking an eighth term, won by just 3 points, down from 17 points. Rep. John Carter, who won by 22 points in 2016, edged Democrat MJ Hegar ( MICK EDIT: WHO IS RUNNING AGAINST CORRYN FOR SENATE IN 2020) — whose candidacy is best-known for viral campaign ads that highlighted her service as an Air Force combat pilot — by only 3 points. all those races are back in play in just a year and change.. and with hundreds of thousands of new voters. Young and educated for the most part moving to Texas. In Harris County, Republicans won the straight-ticket vote by 9 points in both 2010 and 2014. This year, Democrats outperformed Republicans in straight-ticket votes by 11 points. Democrats won the straight-ticket vote in Dallas County by 1 point in 2002, by 7 points in 2006 and 2010, by 10 points in 2014 — and by 30 points this year. Straight-ticket voters in Travis County, home of liberal Austin, chose Democrats this year by a 45-point margin, as turnout among those voters nearly tripled from 2014. “Urban Texas is home to a vast majority of the state’s population, so this is where future elections will be fought,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “Republicans are losing that war to date. If Republicans can’t keep Democratic numbers below 60 percent in urban Texas, winning elections is going to be much more difficult going forward.” Almost half a million new voters cast their midterm ballots early in Texas this year, as did more than a million voters who do not typically show up in midterms, according to the Democratic data analytics firm TargetSmart. Election Day turnout figures, when they are officially released in coming months, are likely to increase those numbers by hundreds of thousands. “Texas has not been a red state. It’s been a nonvoting state and when there’s large voter turnout, which overwhelms the gerrymandering efforts and voter suppression efforts of past cycles, it is very decidedly a purple state.” and is the Senate a 50-50 or 51-49 run.. or perhaps even larger. Early on we identified only 1 Democrat in danger in 2020.. there are 7 potential Republicans. Those running in not solid Red states but blue-purple-and light red thus in danger in case of a wipeout election. As i posted in election preview... I think Warren more than any has the chance to bring a real wipeout for she probably has the best chance to flip red states like Ohio and Texas and appeal to the only real demographic support Repubicans have.. working class whites with no college.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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and back to the debate topic of great interest and importance.. what about McConnell
and if the Democrats do retake the Senate and it isn't Biden in the White House who thinks the Republicans are rational enough to play alone and compromise and allow Democratic policies to go forward and ends up beating his head against the wall.. but Warren... I imagine there will be a meeting perhaps in the days after the election. Her, Schumer, and McConnell.
the jist of it... -Yo Mitch... you have two choices. You are not going to be allowed to do what you tried to do to Obama and try to 'limit him to a 1 term Presidency' by obstructing what the American people voted for and want us to implement. either you play along and get some things back in return..the way the Senate is supposed to work.. the protection of the minority.. not the tyranny of.... or we shut you out completely.. and eliminate the 60 vote threshold completely. You sir showed us what the truth is.. there will be no blow back.. no public revolt if we do so. Your choice?' |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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rogerthat ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
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Well, if you can't speak good Spanish and still decide to speak the language without a "sorry, my Spanish is terrible" preface, then it sounds like pandering to me, straight up. |
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rogerthat ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
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So why waste time anyway with left positions that may not work with these suburban voters? At the end of the day, politics is the art of the possible. They have to build a winning coalition and that has to be one that unites divergent interests. |
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omphaloskepsis ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 6801 |
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The Democrats won't take back the Senate. I give that less than a 3% chance. I've yet to miss a prediction on this thread. Why would a majority vote for a party that plans to destroy borders, charge tax payers a $100,000 a piece for reparations, tax CO2, and give public money to pregnant men, and free healthcare to illegal aliens? Mickie, you might as well hypothesis whether leprechauns and Barbie dolls can mate and have My Little Ponies. You're only fantasizing Mickie. My prediction? Mickie can't explain how the Democrats win the Senate with their current platform.
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King of Loss ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: April 21 2005 Location: Boston, MA Status: Offline Points: 16889 |
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Civility, please.
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omphaloskepsis ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 6801 |
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Ex San Francisco mayor Willie Brown ( Kamala Harris's ex boyfriend) predicts no democrat can beat Trump. I didn't leave the left. The left left me.
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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hey.. I'm not the a****le I used to be. I will be. You just met Ompah.. our resident Russian bot who gets her kicks sitting naked at her computer with a view overlooking the Kremlin having fantasies about the Big Mick and trolling PA's because.. well Putin is a f**king genius so who's to question him....posting bullsh*t and trying to stir up trouble. but since we have a nice polite forum.. I'll be civil and play and address her ignorance of the real world she isn't getting from the FAUX and Breitbart bubble and the real state of play with the Senate. 3 seats to win back the Senate.. in order of likelihood. Maine.. not even sure if Colins is going to run for re-election. She burned some serious bridges in the state with that .. inexplicable support of Kavanaugh.. and if she does decide to run she will be facing a very popular and experienced Democrat (and yes a woman) who will take advantage of the nearly 6 million already 18 months out... in the bank set aside specifically to defeat her. Oh yes.. and it is a blue state... in an election where we are extremely likely to see max Democratic turnout. Colorado - Garnder ain't such a bad guy.. but the state is a blue one.. and being moderate didn't save Repubicans in the state in 2018. two very likely gains Arizona? McSalley has already lost once.. and didn't do so in a way that pleased the right. Her opponent this time.. an even tougher opponent than Sinema was. Mark Kelly who is much beloved and respected not only as a former astromaut but husband of the same Gaby Gifford who had a f**king bullet put into her brain by some right wing nut case. three very likely gains.. and thus control of the Senate but yes there is Alabama.. even as red as that state is.. it is a rated a toss up for you know who is running again and if he gets the nomination .. he will likely lose again. but assuming he doesn't Texas. Unpopular Senator.. very inspriing opponent.. max turnout race. A toss up... North Carolina.. again a toss up Iowa - Ernst should win.. but as 2018 showed.. still a very blue state. Many democrats have come to realize that it isn't enough to simply beat Trump.. they need the Senate as well. 60-40 she hold on.. less if a populist like Warren is the nominee and crushes Trump there and has long coat tales and straight ballot voting. Georgia.. a long shot.. but those are exactly the kind of seats that come into play in a wave election. Depends a lot of on the black vote. If Harris is the nominee and the Democrats do serve up a good candidate.. it could be in play. Edited by micky - July 05 2019 at 17:07 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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omphaloskepsis ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 6801 |
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Hey Mick, why would American Citizen's in those states vote for Democrat senators? The Democrats put illegal aliens above American Citizens. Booker and Beto are campaigning in Mexico. What polices would make American citizens vote for Dems? Please enlighten me Mick. Want to make a bet Mick? Loser can't post on PA for two years. I'll bet you the Dems won't win the Senate? Let's see how much you believe in your analysis.
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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Omhpa.. dear Ompha.. you need to go back to the GRU English school and get your rubles back babe.
I never predicted they would win it.. my previews showed what could happen... even what I thought would happen based on the trends and the way our electorate and who they support is changing. A bit of quick english lesson for you babe. That is not the same as saying they WOULD happen. I do believe they will.. for I believe in numbers and trends for I have been studying them and those are pointing to a large democratic win.. and yes control of the senate. sematics aside.. I will take you up on your bet. On one condition.... I want to see some brains in addition to that hot body... show me you have something in your head and just not posting stupid links and videos. break down the Senate races and what you think of them. do that.. answer my questions with some degree of intelligence .. and yes .. you'll have yourself a bet. Don't worry though.. I like you .. I won't hold you to it. I'd miss hearing what you think about the new state of American moving forward...
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Atavachron ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65603 |
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That seems didactic and punitive, why don't you make a bet for cold hard cash like everyone else -- |
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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omphaloskepsis ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 6801 |
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Deal Dude!
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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cool. Look forward to it.. you'll find me to be a hard but fair judge of what you come up with .. don't have to agree with you say. Just want to see some real thought, contemplation, and thinking processes at work. Something many of us feel is lacking with a large certain percentage of our electorate.
Edited by micky - July 06 2019 at 08:19 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Easy Money ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 11 2007 Location: Memphis Status: Offline Points: 10679 |
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Yes, some real thought, not your typical lazy categorizations and cliches as in, you are 'conservative', you must think this way, or you are 'liberal' so you must think that way. The purpose of the cliche labels is to let us know when we can tune out and not listen anymore, ie more laziness. So getting back to my post about Justin Amash which seemed to be misunderstood. I am not here to promote any candidate or any way of thinking, I was not promoting Amash's work when I pointed out how different he is from trump, I was merely pointing out that trump is not a proponent of traditional 'conservative values' such as a reduced role for government and personal freedom from government intrusion. trump is a big government right winger, which is much different from the more traditional and intellectual conservatism of Goldwater, Buckley, Kemp, Amash and the Libertarian party etc. trump's main appeal to his base is nationalism and government promoted religious intolerance, both of which are at odds with what the small government conservative stands for. This does not constitute my endorsement of small government conservatism, I am merely pointing out the very big difference. |
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446 |
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Man With Hat ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Jazz-Rock/Fusion/Canterbury Team Joined: March 12 2005 Location: Neurotica Status: Offline Points: 166183 |
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^ to be fair...most of the republican party today isn't 'traditional conservative values' focused...at least for areas that they care about.
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Dig me...But don't...Bury me
I'm running still, I shall until, one day, I hope that I'll arrive Warning: Listening to jazz excessively can cause a laxative effect. |
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Easy Money ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 11 2007 Location: Memphis Status: Offline Points: 10679 |
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^ The intrusion of the 'religious right' started under Reagan, and Goldwater was out spoken in his disgust with this trend and the way in which the Republican party was headed.
Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement of Goldwater's policies, just another example of how Goldwater had a much deeper understanding of what limited and non-intrusive government really meant as compared to today's republican party. Barry also supported a woman's right to choose as he saw anything else as more govt. intrusion. He also supported 'gay rights' as being true to full constitutional rights for everyone. Edited by Easy Money - July 06 2019 at 13:32 |
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446 |
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micky ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
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^ he also was one of the leaders in integrating our military.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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