The American Politics Thread

^ Hey Fox has been covering the recent UFO releases form the military (they're now termed 'UAP's, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena)--  you know there's been a shift when Tucker and others are interviewing these guys with a serious tone instead of the usual "This guy's looney" wink & a nod.

Yeah I only see clips on Youtube.   I haven't had cable for five years, I just do the free digital airwaves now... best thing I ever did.

the one thing they say that I'm not sure I agree with...  that the candidate may not matter. In most cases it might not...  but as I've said.  Trump may not.. but believe he can beat Sanders.

see there have been a bunch of new polls out and .. again.. nice to see the tealeaves are treating me right. Biden takes a big fall, Harris and Warren jump and Sanders slips.. into 4th.  He is IMO the least electible of the 4 in that does any democrat (not counting passionate supporters of his) want to take the chance.. even slight ones if moderates/centrists don't turn out in force if Bernie is the candidate. I don't think so..  plus really in order for Bernie to have a chance to even get the nomination. Warren will have to collapse and even then.. much of her support might go to Harris/Biden.  To be honest.. I think that is where I myself would go.  I like Bernie.. but never have felt he has 'it' to win a general election in this country.. even with the changes of the last 4.. and plus have a suspicion that Trump would eat him alive in a one on one campaign.  

Fundraising...  being wired into that aspect of her campaign as a substantial and frequent contributor.  Look for the soon to be released 2nd Q fundraising reports.  I think she will get negative headlines for appearing.. and yes actually trailing the field in that.  She is rejecting all but small individual donations.. won't accept PAC money.. and will not do fundraisers.  She is going to need that money as the campaign continues forward.  Still plenty of time to adjust and perhaps still not accept PAC money.. but at least do teh fundraiser thing.  A mistake but one she has time to correct and not really lose bonifieds about.

as far as our original point .. again.. see what is happening with Harris.  She had to make that move if she really .. really wanted to be Preident and just not be in the campaign for exposure.. a cabinet slot or a VP offer. Yet she is being savaged by Biden allies as a 'aggressive ambitious woman'...  for the very same thing and qualities that would be celebrated in a male candidate.

the point is Warren didn't need to make a jump upwards.. she was already in teh top tier.  She just has to let the policies and their potential impact and benefit to this country do the talking and keep the stories about her being policy.. not being a shrill or dislikeable personally candidate.

and no man.. I ain't no consultant...   if I was I'd have been fired or working with Beto and his loser campaign.  I've been wrong as often as I've been right..  all one does is call them as they see them.

Amash quit Republican Party this morning and with a damning final shot in the Op-Ed as to why..  and likely will run in 2020 as an independent..  and he isn't going to be taking away potential Democratic voters for sure. Even while he is dead f**king on with what is going on with the Republican Party..  he still thinks we live in a antebellum world of limited government and with a frontier individualism mentality which simply is out of touch and out of place with the society we live in.. and the world around us.

And going further, Never Trumpers who may have voted Democrat in the midterms (esp suburban affluent voters) may find a third party/independent candidate to be a useful option if they think Democrats are going too far left. So those are votes they could lose out on as well.  

Additionally, just because Trump seems to operate by a whole other set of rules doesn't mean Democrats should expect forgiveness for their gaffes.  It won't be forthcoming.  In the first debate, I watched with a mixture of alarm and amusement as three candidates fell over each other getting in a Spanish word or two.  I am given to understand two of them spoke bad Spanish at that. There's a word for it.  It's called pandering.  I know how the Hindu right base would react here if they saw a very transparent attempt at pandering to a minority group by a politician.  I don't believe the way those whites who already feel very conscious of their identity react to that Spanish outreach will be very different.  Gutfeld, again, already made sure to poke fun at it just so the Fox News audience doesn't fail to notice it.   There is a difference between a sincere commitment to a progressive platform and pandering.  Democrat candidates shouldn't think voters are too daft to tell the difference (even if they are daft enough to vote for Trump).  I really believe anxiety to galvanise the left base has gripped the Democrat candidates and way early in the race as well.  The Mid Term campaign was a lot more focused and that focus has since been lost.  There is time for a course correction but that depends on a centrist pulling far ahead enough of the others to force the others to align more with him/her.  I hope to be wrong, as per the usual.

In my opinion it's only pandering if it's insincere. I didn't see any evidence that they were doing it to be insincere or phony. Was it politically motivated in some way? What these days isn't. That doesn't mean they did it just so that people of a certain ethnic group will like them. I can see how someone might think this but ultimately you can't get inside of their heads and know what their motives were. I can't either but as I said I didn't see any evidence of pandering(all imo of course).

As I posted some time back.. same thing going on with women and the suburbs..  it didn't happen overnight and have for years been leaving the Republican Party.. Trump was the final straw for them.

I think it will be a in play .. ie contested hard by Democrats in 2020.  They are likely going to need a 4th Semate pickup to go with likely pickups in Az, Co, and Me to gain control of the Senate.  And that topic was large at the debates.  Winning back the Senate is almost as important to Democrats as beating Trump.  If Judge Moore gets the nomination and to be honest.. I think he will... .. yeah.. Jones likely does hold the AL seat but I suspect the Democrats will want some insurance.   In Texas Corryn is up next year and one thing I learned that surprised me... was he is far less popular in Texas than Cruz is.  And the democratic candidate they recruited to run.. far more attractive candate.. a woman and a veteran... not the charimatic but otherwise  dope addled space cadet that Beto was.  Who raised a lot of money.. but ran a sh*tty campaign.

I think it a no brainer the Democrats hammer the rust belt hard to make sure Trump has zero chance in those states.. but think they pass on contesting Florida.. and make a strong play for Texas and perhaps flip it 4 years ahead of schedule.  I think this is shat the Trump campaign sees as well. .which is why they are already investing heavily in Texas which the artcile went on to note..  might win him Texas... but be fatal to his chances for taking away from efforts to hold on to WI, MI, and PA.