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rushfan4

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 12:22

Interesting logic micky. The stuff that I was watching and reading after the election seemed to indicate that the Democrats had very little chance to win the Senate in 2020 because of the lay of the land, and that the soonest that they might be able to win it was 2022.

micky

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 12:26

I just read an article..written by the pros... which of course mirrors my own 'informal' amateur analysis that has the 7 most likely to flip seat..

5 are republican held. No.. this election cycle is very favorable to Democrats to not just gain seats.. but perhaps take the Senate back.

and that isn't even really considering, which I did a bit, the Trump effect. In turnout.. and passion to see the Republicans booted from power. We saw it in 2018, I see no reason for that to not be a very powerful force in play for the 2020 election.

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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 13:30

micky wrote:

I just read an article..written by the pros... which of course mirrors my own 'informal' amateur analysis that has the 7 most likely to flip seat..

5 are republican held. No.. this election cycle is very favorable to Democrats to not just gain seats.. but perhaps take the Senate back.

Kudos to Micky! Clap

Over his last few posts, Micky used logic and critical thinking to formulate possible outcomes of a future election. I'll have to reread Micky's posts and ponder his facts, figures, and argument for a few days. At present, I don't know if I agree or disagree with Micky because I've haven't delved deep enough into Micky's hypothesis. Wink

I haven't a clue till I study Micky's proposal.

It took me over two hours to watch SillyPuppy's video. Took me over an hour to figure out where their etymological fueled philosophy was headed. I enjoy the discussion even though I disagree with the definition of individual sovereignty. Using their rigid definition how could the gentlemen be individually sovereign if they relied on YouTube and the internet to broadcast their philosophy. Maybe they will do what Lao-Tzu did? Explain the unexplainable, record it then disappear into the forest for forever!

Lao Tzu was very old, when he rode on a water buffalo to retire in the mountains to a province in the western frontiers. There he was approached by a border official named Guan Yin Zi, who urged the master to write down his teachings so that they might be passed on.

Lao Tzu then retreated into the solitude of the mountain pass, wrote the Tao Te Ching, whereupon he went westward and was never seen again.

Edited by omphaloskepsis - November 14 2018 at 13:51

micky

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 14:08

actually I"d be more curious to hear your, or anyone's thoughts, on my Presidential preview for I did reach a rather significant conclusion. ie.. Trump has as much chance of being relected as I do becoming a famous porn star. Oh the possibility is there and real... the two though.. are not far off from being the same realisistically. If Trump needed, and got, 4 aces from the dealer in 2016. He's going to need 5 in 2020. No Hillary to run against, and no 'take a chance on me' despartion among voters. Also, people have seen the importance of their vote, and how a protest vote is very often a vote against what you are really protesting against. My best friend is a interesting portal of that frame of mind. He HATED Hillary with a passion, yet saw as many of us did that Trump was historically unqualified and unsuited to become President. He cast a 3rd party protest vote here in Virginia and in his words, he is thankful it really didn't matter. I can't quite get him to admit it but I can read between the lines of people's speak better than most, he would would have rather had Hillary than Trump. I do not think he is alone in that now that we have had 2 years of the Toddler in Chief.

anyhow.. back to the Senate for a moment. The only reason the Democrats did not follow the House and retake the Senate in 2018 was the uniquely and historically horrible map they had to face.

In 2020.. none.. ie.. NONE of the battlefield states are 'trump country' They are reasitically defending only one seat, Jones in Alabama, but have significant chances in upwards of 6 Republican held seats. Of those 6, only 1 is considered a red state and even that, has forces at play moving that state purpishish and I'll say it.. not one political pundit has raised the specter of what I can really see happening. Abrams taking the anger, passion, and energy of her Gov race and transferring that to a Senate race. Not a one pundit has, as of now, Georgia on that map. That can, and I think it will, change very quickly if indeed she loses the Gov election and in the way it appears she will lose it, and she takes the next step, and runs for Senate in two years.

that seat will be very much in play if she does and with the political realignment going n nationwide which perhaps showed no more ... than it did in Georgia with the 2018 midterms.

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siLLy puPPy View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 14:30

omphaloskepsis wrote:

micky wrote:

I just read an article..written by the pros... which of course mirrors my own 'informal' amateur analysis that has the 7 most likely to flip seat..

5 are republican held. No.. this election cycle is very favorable to Democrats to not just gain seats.. but perhaps take the Senate back.

Kudos to Micky! Clap

I haven't a clue till I study Micky's proposal.

Lao Tzu then retreated into the solitude of the mountain pass, wrote the Tao Te Ching, whereupon he went westward and was never seen again.

Thanks for taking the time to check it out. A long winded affair i do agree. As far as the sovereignty issue goes, he does tackle that. One thing about Kurt is that his train of thought is a bit schizoid. If you really want to stitch together the reasoning you have to invest even more time and listen to his other interviews where he fills in gaps that aren't in this one. Annoying? Yes. Worth it? For me it is so. I don't remember where he gets into the sovereignty thing in more detail but he is speaking from the idealistic visionary view of how things should be first of all and that sovereignty does not mean that we do not work together to create larger functional systems. It means that we are not bound by the arbitrary rules that are set up so that a corporate and political elite syphons off our energy for their own profit. Although not perfect, the video introduces us to concepts most of us have never given one iota of thought to, yet the ramifications have shaped our entire global system of power. If this isn't political on steroids, i don't know what is Wink

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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 15:05

siLLy puPPy wrote:

[/QUOTE]

Cool whip siLLy puPPy . I figured Kurt's sovereignty view was idealistic and he had a more practical side. As a matter of fact, Kurt said, "Sovereignty does not mean that we do not work together to create larger functional systems." But afterwards, he said the idealistic visionary stuff without qualifying his utopian viewpoint. Now I get it. I also agree, we the people are hosts to corporate and political elite parasites. We should resist. Wink

siLLy puppy, did you see where the TPP treaty will be signed by a bunch of nations (sans USA and European nations) December 30? Apparently the treaty trumps national laws and constitutions. Elites from 10,000 miles away forcing you to bend to their laws. Serfdom? I may disagree with the Globalists on PA, but I believe the Globalist will eventually win. I hope I won't live to see World Wide Globalism come to pass. I pity babies born today and tomorrow. They'll never know. Sleepy

Micky. Allow me to study the 2020 election before I give my opinion. At first glance I'm tempted to assume record breaking unemployment, booming economy, no wars, defeated ISIS, and denuclearization of North Korea would be enough for a Trump Landslide. I thought folks would be happy with Peace and more money to spend. I thought Trump's polices would trump Trump's gruff personality. Perhaps I thought wrong? Perhaps I've underestimated Trump haters' feelings? Too many variables to ponder, Therefore I can't make a prediction yet. I'll have to research and study the situation before I can make any logical conclusions or deductions, which take into account the powerful feelings of leftists and hard core democrats.

Look at SteveG. He said he would not vote for Trump if the Trump cured cancer. That's a powerful statement! Wink

Edited by omphaloskepsis - November 14 2018 at 15:16

micky

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 15:19

^ I've been waiting for you two to hook up LOL

and final thoughts on the Senate.

I've give Doug Jones a 1 in 5 chance of holding on to his seat, he got a lot of moderate Republican votes last year. If the Republicans are stupid enough, and yes they are, to put an alt right or (looking at you, Mo Brooks) an ultra conservative against him, he can win, thus the punchers chance he has as opposed to NO CHANCE IN HELL if the Repubican Party hadn't gone.. in the immortal words of their own.. 'batsh*t crazy'

let's assume they regain some temporary santiy.. they take the seat back, realizing just how in jeopardy their all important in their eyes control of the Senate is. Dem's lose a seat which means if they do they need 4 (or 5 with a 2020 Presidential loss) to regain the Senate.

Realistically and two years out, death and scandal being what they are haha, that is the only Democratic seat really in danger. NH is a tight state, but still blue and Shaheen is long time and well known Senator and squeeky clean.. and more importantly.. on the opposite side of the ticket from Trump.

So in my humble estimation that leaves potentially 6 Republcians seats I consider in danger of flipping.

I'll rank them in terms of likelihood

Maine. 75-25 team blue

Colorado 60-40 team blue

Arizona 55-45 team blue

North Carolina 50-50 but really will depend on the Democratic candidate. This state is gerrymandered all to hell for Congressional districts. but statewide.. it is nearly a deadeven split but trending blue over time as the RTP-Triangle grows

Georgia hard to predict because Abrams still could win the Gov's race. If she does this goes off the list, but it doesn't look like she will and obviously a big difference is if she runs or not.

off the map if she isn't a candidate.. but if she is, it is because she likely had the election stolen from her. That is at least what many will believe and probably would be true considering the Courts are already banging on the way Georgia is disinfrancized voters. If she runs.. 50-50

Iowa I see Ernst got a promotion today. Only in a true blue wave, and a damn big one does this reach toss up status. Not a lock, but not really that much in play but as I noted. I think this one more so than any other might be affected by the Democratic top of the ticket.

70-30 team red

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Easy Money View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 15:42

micky wrote:

^ I've been waiting for you two to hook up LOL

Yes, anyone could see that coming from a mile away.
"Finally someone who understands me."

siLLy puPPy View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 15:59

Easy Money wrote:

micky wrote:

^ I've been waiting for you two to hook up LOL

Yes, anyone could see that coming from a mile away.
"Finally someone who understands me."

FYI, Omph contacted me a long time ago in the past. I have just avoided this thread for the most part is all. We're trying to demonstrate here how we can all be civil since as mere entities vibrating in a limited spectrum of an energetic universe, each of us resonates at a frequency that allows each of us to see things that the other cannot. So if you have been avoiding Omph it's because you reside on a different frequency and can't comprehend where she is coming from. I reside somewhere in between the extremes that you two exhibit and can understand where both of you are coming from. I'm an erudite puppy and if i were to unleash my full puppy powers, you would never be the same LOL

Edited by siLLy puPPy - November 14 2018 at 16:09

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siLLy puPPy View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 16:08

omphaloskepsis wrote:

siLLy puPPy wrote:

Yep, i'm aware of all this nonsense. Globalism isn't an inherent evil. It's who dictates the details. This site is globalism so let's keep things in perspective. I LOOOOOOOVE globalism. I love meeting random souls from across the globe. The kind you are speaking of.... not so much. This is a topic i won't comment on right now. I have ideas and theories but they are not well formulated enough to give a relevant opinion at the moment. The sheer scale of this if understood in the context of all the minutia is staggering. Having said that, the likely outcome will most likely be some sort of compromise as is usually the case. There are Earth changes upon us that will pull the rug out of everybody's best laid plans so nobody should get too attached to any particular outcome or philosphical standing. We are literally entering uncharted territories and predictive punditry is futile. Of course i hope for the best for all, but am realisitc enough to know that most do not study reality in enough depth to comprehend that forces that are substantially more advanced and intelligent are controlling things. A true democratic paradigm is only possible if everyone is in an equally educated playing field.

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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 16:59

siLLy puPPy wrote:

omphaloskepsis wrote:

siLLy puPPy wrote:

I'm for World wide peace. Folks getting along all over the world. I've lived in a foreign country and loved it. I love people world over!

What I don't like? Billionaires...10,000 miles away creating laws for my local area. Elites creating a ginormous slave class. Small World Wide ruling class and slave class.

siLLy puPPy View Drop Down

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 17:06

^ yes, i will agree with that, a trait that both parties in our country support. One may give a few more crumbs than the other but ultimately they support the underlying imbalances that keep the status quo churning.

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micky

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 19:40

done the Presidential and the Senate... not doing the House but a few words are in order.

One of the more startling nuggets of data to come out of the midterms.. which again for the umpteeth time.. bear direct relation to what we might see in 2020 for the turnout setting records and nearly reaching Presidential levels. Most groups turned out in force. Democrats, Republicans. Old and middle aged.

one group that did not, and never has for midterms. Young voters.

but back to that starling nugget of data. Of the 200 House wins the Republicans had.. almost one quarter of them.. 47 of them. .were by 5 points or less. While working class whites without a college degree turned out in huge numbers the Republicans got shellacked... mainly because they lost college educated voters to a degree they NEVER have historically.. 20 points is the last bit of data I saw. I don't expect the Republicans to be able to do much to slap a bandaid on the gunshot wound they have with college educated surbanites and women. It is as was said.. it took the Republicans decades to build a winning coalition.. it took Trump less than 2 years to destroy it and if a lesson can be learned from white working collegeless whites.. once you lose a subset of a voting population.. it is extremely hard to get them back.

while most voting blocks turned out in huge numbers, one that did not in 2018 but for sure will in 2020 is the under 30 set which leans heavily democratic. I suspect the Democrats will be strongly favored to not merely hold on to.. but continue to expand their majority in the house. Especially since the courts are onto extreme gerrymandering... it looks like North Carolina will have a more fair arrangement in place for the next electon and that state may not be the only one. Might be good for another 10 seats to the Democrats there...

and then there is redistricting.. again one of the great underreported aspects of the last 2 years is a decade of gains .. bordering on dominance by Republicans on the local level have nearly been halved in less than 2 years by the Democrats. Redistricting be it court ordered or by more balanced local politics will further erode what had been thought to be a long term source of political power for the Republican Party.

Anyhow... news tonight is a challenger to Pelosi has finally emerged. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Seems it is a woman from Ohio and is extremely well respected by all. Time for some popcorn for that.

Edited by micky - November 14 2018 at 19:50

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micky

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Posted: November 14 2018 at 20:15

and speaking of idiots, morons, and the current day Republican Party. That is the current appointed Senator from that state. There some thing you just CAN NOT SAY.. and most definitely not in that f**king state. And people wonder why so many question, like Trump himself, question the innate intelligence of southerners. It isn't just a sh*tty underfunded education system that places more emphasis on football than getting an education haha

First Black Senator from Mississippi in a hundred years?... leave it to the GOP to perhaps lose that seat. The GOP apparantly sending out alarms and begging Trump to come there to save that seat.

The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip

SteveG

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