| Author |
 Topic Search  Topic Options
|
micky 
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
 Posted: November 10 2018 at 09:10 |
and so begins the 2020 PA's Poltical Thread preview of the rapidly upcoming 2020 election campaign.
so where to start.. of course.. with 2016. The map of that result
looks impressive...
until one looks deeper... taking the states out that were razor thin.. less than 1% difference.. this is how close 2016 was.
before breaking all those down for those will likely decide the election again we'll go a bit further back and take a look at those states which were battlefields then and for the most part will be in 2020. Let's take a look at those with a 1% - 5% difference for flips in these could nullify fips in the razor thin column
and just for kicks.. for demographic changes are very real and states over time will be moving from blue and red to purple and some from purple to either red or blue. So taking out the 5%-10% which could be in play in the right circumstances range leaving us the pretty much rock solid Blue and solid Red that would even vote for Joe Stalin or ol' Adolf if either were on the ballot.
next up.. working way back up state by state to the razor thin....
Edited by micky - November 10 2018 at 09:11
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
 |
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 09:38 |
so there is the 5%-10%r's. So in a normal election.. ie Trump remains being Trump and Republicans Republicans and the Democrats don't revert to f**king up wet dreams as they have shown the ability to do in the past.... and more to the point don't nominate Hillary Clinton or completely screw the pooch again we can reasonable assume...
Virginia has been trending blue for 3 elections now and most recently over 2017 which had major flips from solid Republican at the state level to being a split dead even toss up.. as well as flipping 3 House seats in 2018. It is very safe to color it blue...
Georgia is becoming purple but likely still an election cycle or two from truly becoming a battleground. However if Abrams makes a run for Senate in 2020 and really gets out the vote as she for Gov this year.. it could be in play. Leaving it Red .. but it could change...
Ohio? Hard to see much reason the Democrats flip that.. they can in the right circumstances.. but really is too much a stretch right now to consider it in play. That is a state, more so than any other than has moved from purple.. not to blue.. but to red, Keeping that Red but far from solid for a Democrat with a populist economic message of the worker being sh*t on.. not by immigrants but by corporate America and the .1%rs (ie Trump's worst nightmare for that is.. umm... him) pushed by one like Liz Warren.. could flip that state.
New Mexico.. much like Virginia. Tighter than the rock solid.. but not really in play unless the Democratic Party sh*ts the bed. Coloring that blue...
then comes the most two most interesting...
Texas. Of course it gets colored Red. but suspect it makes the jump in 2020 on its way to purple status to the 1%-5% column for the future PA's 2024 election preview haha. That state is going to be a huge problem for the Republican Party.. but I don't see it being so yet in 2020.
Then there is Iowa... look no further than the 2018 midterms..which went near blue across the board... in that state more than perhaps any other the 2016 election results and Trump's large victory might be an outlier..I'm leaving that as a battleground and uncolored.
so where does that leave us before moving to the generally considered 'battleground' states?
pretty much dead even... but with the potential to swing more blue than red...
Edited by micky - November 10 2018 at 09:39
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 10:14 |
leaving out again the razor thin for very last... going to the large group of battlegrounds in the 1% to 5% range
Florida? easy one there.. no color.. truly a toss up.. an coin flip... I think Biden more moderate stance might have the best chance to beat Trump there as the economic sword of Warren might not resonate as well there as it might in the rust belt and west.. Harris? TBD
Minnesota? that was one of the very under the radar stories of 2016.. how that bastion of progressive politics nearly voted for Trump. Leaving it blank as the 2018 midterms hinted at good even split.. but do think it will still remain blue for reason I'll get more into with the razor thin.. for even though it didn't flip like they did... i think much of the same was in play there. The closeness was a bit of an outlier... but without a decisive result (not counting the Senate) it is safest to leave it as a very much in play battlefield. However Trump will be having to play so much defense elsewhere to protect his narrow margin in states he won.. don't see him being able to invest much to play offense there.
Nebraskas 2nd Congressional Distcit... 1 electoral vote. Very close.. but they held the seat this week. No reason to see it flipping in 2020. Coloring that red.
Nevada and Colorado. Those are two that is moving quickly from purple to blue and following Virginia's path to generally solid blue. Much like Ohio in the opposite direction.. could be in play but not really likely....coloring both blue from even though in the right circumstance the Republicans can flip it.. however it isn't very likely.
Maine. Leaving that uncolored but much like Minnesota that went blue... it will take more effort to flip than Trump might be able to manage. Likely stays blue.. what happens with the Senate race there could push that in the firm blue and perhaps into the 5%-10% column for 2024.
then the two true battlegrounds in the 1%-5% range.
both obvously left uncolored.
North Carolina and Arizona. I think each lean in opposing directions. N.C red for continued black white social animus.. Arizona blue for the emerging hispanic vote.. and both will have heavily invested and intensely competitive Senate races in 2020 for potential Democratic pickups. Suspect these two states will be getting most of the 'non Florida' battleground attention in 2020.
so where does that leave us.. not much difference.. but we still have to get to the razor thinnies...
Edited by micky - November 10 2018 at 10:16
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 12:08 |
we come to the razor thinnies... leaving NH out of this for a couple of reasons.. sorry NH.. the 4 votes aren't worth the time (as I mean to show) and even in the perfect storm of 2016 the Democrats still won it.. won't put it as a blue .. it is still a battlefield... but one that had to have particular reasons to push it out of the Democratic camp into the Republican. Considering just how .... hated Trump is outside of his regional core areas.. one can likely expect another very tight but still Democratic win there.
however the story of 2016 was the failure of the 'blue wall' and these 3 states to save America and its values from Trump. So let's look at them and can we draw anything about 2020....
Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential election approx 52-47 Obama with approx 67% turnout. 5.7M votes 2016 Presidential election approx 48 and low change-47 high change Trump with approx 70% turnout 6.1M votes 2018 Midterm election Senate and Gov elections.. 55-42 and 58-41 for the Democratic candidates approx 57% turnout (a record for a midterm as it was in many states).Approx 4.9M votes.
Michigan 2012 Presidential election approx 54-45 Obama with approx 63.5% turnout. 4.7M votes 2016 Presidential election approx 47.5-47.3 Trump with approx 63% turnout. 4.7M votes 2018 Midterm election Gov and Sen races 53-44/52-46 team Blue wins with approx 57.5% turnout (highest in 50 years)
Wisconsin 2012 Presidential election approx 53-46 Obama with approx 70% turnout 3M votes cast 2016 Presidential election approx 47-46 Trump with approx 69% turnout...2.9M votes cast 2018 Midterm election Gov and Senate approx 49-48/ and 55-46 team blue wins. Approx 60% turnout (another record breaker) 2.7M votes.
so what can we draw from this moving to 2018. Suppose I will get to that tomorrow haha. Time for booze, food and music!!!
Edited by micky - November 10 2018 at 12:16
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 12:39 |
cool.. the boss says I have time to finish this before we need to go...
so the most obvious takeaway from 2018 is 2016 was an aberation.. Trump is an aberation. It isn't the Republican that won those states. He did.
or did he?
let's look closer at those vote totals. .what is the first thing taht might jump out. Yep.. in none of those states did Trump win a majority of votes.
PA Trump won by approx 40k votes... but over 200k votes were cast for 3rd party... in 2012 there were... approx 70k.. in 2008 there were..approx 62k so perhaps many are turning to 3rd Party.. so let's see how many were cast in 2018... ahh huh. around 79k. So what happened to them.. we'll come back to that. Perhaps that was just an aberration.
so what about MI Trump won by approx 17k votes.. but almost 250k votes were cast for a 3rd party.. in 2012 there were... approx 50k... in 2008 there were.. approx 80k
and in 2018 of those 250k who suddenly found God and salvation in a 3rd party... how many voted... uhh huh... approx 83k
so what about Wisconsin Trump won there by approx 23k votes but almost 200k votes were cast for 3rd party.. in 2012 there were... approx 40k.. in 2008 there were.. approx 40k
and what about those 250k 3rd partiers in 2018... how many voted for 3rd Party.. uhh huh..approx 50k
so what can one conclude about that... time for a beer and smoke and we'll wrap up this election preview
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 12:55 |
so in those states we've sort of seen that there were hundreds of thousands of votes cast for 3rd party.. yet they were one off votes. Call them protest votes. Those who could and not would not support Trump.. and those that could not and would not support Hillary.
so in 2020.. who will be on the ballot.and who will not? In 2018 we see those Democratic strongholds are still quite blue..
so if as expected Trump's victory there was as muc about Hillary as it was his appeal to the great white working class.. here is what that electoral map looks like if Hillary does not go George f**king Romero and end up on the ballot again. A candidate the Republicans spent years tearing apart. A very public figure who was, in spite of her qualfications ... extemely dislikable and on top of it made profound tactical and strategy mistakes (like likely not taking Trump the candidate seriously) that NO democrat in 2020 will do
and throwing MN in that for even though I didn't crunch the numbers, and Trump didn't win it, I'd strongly suspect the same occured in that state that happened in the other 3.
and that is game set and match.... and the end of the 2020 election preview. For President. Later i'll do one up for the Senate in 2020. That will be nearly as fascinating as 2018 and likely as much problems for the Republicans as 2018 was for the Democrats. that is why merely gaining a couple of Senate seats was a loss...
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
MortSahlFan
Forum Senior Member
Joined: March 01 2018
Location: US
Status: Offline
Points: 3073
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 17:48 |
|
Democrats win the House, but they have never been so right-winged... Obama and Clinton were so great to the Republicans, too.
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/c/LoyalOpposition
https://www.scribd.com/document/382737647/MortSahlFan-Song-List
|
|
The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member
Joined: February 01 2011
Location: Michigan
Status: Offline
Points: 13209
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 18:56 |
Because of a "light rain", President Trump cancelled a Veterans' Day Memorial at a military cemetery in France. The nearly 2,000 U.S. soldiers buried in the cemetery died in 1918 at the terrible Battle of Belleau Wood. More marines died in Belleau Wood than in their entire history up to that point. They died suffocating in mud, they choked to death from mustard gas, they were buried alive in trenches and were cut in two by machine gun fire and razor wire. But Cadet Bone Spurs, with his five medical deferments and his father's ill-gotten wealth, cancelled a brief appearance to honor the dead because of a little rain. O, how his comb-over might have suffered! But it seems Trump's Chief of Staff, General John Kelly, had no issues walking amongst the graves, contemplating these soldiers' ultimate sacrifice. Into each persons' life a little rain must fall. Also, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the memorial (as did German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron). Trudeau put down his umbrella and began his speech by directly insulting Trump:
"As we sit here in the rain, thinking how uncomfortable we must be these minutes as our suits get wet, and our hair gets wet...it’s all the more fitting that we remember on that day in Dieppe the rain wasn’t rain, it was bullets.”
|
|
...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...
|
|
Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65550
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 19:38 |
 Atavachron wrote:
Jesus I think California will just be burning in perpetuum. Wouldn't surprise me if Trump threatens to withhold federal aid just to spite us. |
Aaaaaand ... I was right
President Donald Trump Saturday threatened to withhold federal aid from
California to assist with relief from wildfires burning up and down the
state.
|
|
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
|
|
siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator
PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic
Joined: October 05 2013
Location: SFcaUsA
Status: Offline
Points: 15341
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 19:59 |
Atavachron wrote:
Atavachron wrote:
Jesus I think California will just be burning in perpetuum. Wouldn't surprise me if Trump threatens to withhold federal aid just to spite us. |
Aaaaaand ... I was right
President Donald Trump Saturday threatened to withhold federal aid from
California to assist with relief from wildfires burning up and down the
state.
|
As a long life student in ecological sciences, i have to agree with his analysis that constantly bailing people out who choose to live in fire prone areas is like constantly giving the keys to a drunk driver. The US has suppressed natural fires for over 150 years and this whole mess is from complete mismanagement and an arrogance of humans believing they can perfect natural processes. Trump has said plenty of stupid things agreed but when it comes to this issue he's right on (if he even actually said this, keep in mind that the Democrats under Obama passed The Smith-Mundt Modernization Act in 2012 as a tag on bill that effectively legalized perjury and domestic proganda under the guise of national security which these days pretty much means EVERYTHING.) I'm saying this as i'm sitting here tonight with my air purifier cranking so i don't choke on the smoke from the Chico fires. Apocalypse now. Ho hum.
|
 https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
|
|
Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65550
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 20:38 |
^ Reasonable points-- thing is, if it were Colorado or Texas or Arizona with increasingly dry conditions leading to more & bigger fires I doubt he'd be as moved to threaten them. No matter, we'll do what we have to do.
|
|
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
|
|
siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator
PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic
Joined: October 05 2013
Location: SFcaUsA
Status: Offline
Points: 15341
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 21:13 |
|
^ i do believe hurricane victims in red states have had the same threats and funding problems. Trump is a wild card not an R or a D.
|
https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
|
|
Easy Money
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin
Joined: August 11 2007
Location: Memphis
Status: Offline
Points: 10676
|
Posted: November 10 2018 at 23:26 |
|
I could care less what trump says as he has proved himself to be a morally bankrupt self-centered fool with zero sense of humor or humility ... but the canyons and rural hillsides of California have too many people living in them, its not healthy.
I lived in California (SF) for 22 years and there is much I miss, and I used to enjoy the hot springs in rural Nor Cal, so I'm not speaking as an outsider. I also have friends who barely ducked some fires around Clear Lake a couple years ago. I was also living in SF during the huge Oakland hillside fire.
The flat lands where the cities are, SF, San Jose, Stockton, Modesto, LA, etc, are generally safe from fire, the problem is people wanting to live in areas that are just prone to fire. Its the same with people who want to live on the Gulf Coast in the south.
Edited by Easy Money - November 11 2018 at 00:29
|
|
npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007
Location: Germany
Status: Offline
Points: 2720
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 02:24 |
|
Re this business of Trump not attending any memorial services: perhaps someone should tell him that it wasn't the first world war that the nazis lost, but the second one. It's ok for him to go.
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:09 |
The Dark Elf wrote:
Because of a "light rain", President Trump cancelled a Veterans' Day Memorial at a military cemetery in France. The nearly 2,000 U.S. soldiers buried in the cemetery died in 1918 at the terrible Battle of Belleau Wood. More marines died in Belleau Wood than in their entire history up to that point. They died suffocating in mud, they choked to death from mustard gas, they were buried alive in trenches and were cut in two by machine gun fire and razor wire. But Cadet Bone Spurs, with his five medical deferments and his father's ill-gotten wealth, cancelled a brief appearance to honor the dead because of a little rain. O, how his comb-over might have suffered! But it seems Trump's Chief of Staff, General John Kelly, had no issues walking amongst the graves, contemplating these soldiers' ultimate sacrifice. Into each persons' life a little rain must fall. Also, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the memorial (as did German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron). Trudeau put down his umbrella and began his speech by directly insulting Trump:
"As we sit here in the rain, thinking how uncomfortable we must be these minutes as our suits get wet, and our hair gets wet...it’s all the more fitting that we remember on that day in Dieppe the rain wasn’t rain, it was bullets.”
|
well said... and if my tea leaves are correct.. you'll be seeing more tweets from the Toddler in Chief today of outrage today if any NFL player has the temerity to kneel during the anthem and disrespecting those who served and died for the country .
priceless...
He got burned on this.. looked the fool....so his normal M.O. is change the subject
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:12 |
siLLy puPPy wrote:
^ i do believe hurricane victims in red states have had the same threats and funding problems. Trump is a wild card not an R or a D. |
huh??? Texas and N.C got everything they wanted and needed after these recent storms.. they are red states.
Check out the support the P.R. got and got back some to Sandy and the N.E. blue states to see real threats of cutting off funding due to politics.
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator
PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic
Joined: October 05 2013
Location: SFcaUsA
Status: Offline
Points: 15341
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:22 |
micky wrote:
siLLy puPPy wrote:
^ i do believe hurricane victims in red states have had the same threats and funding problems. Trump is a wild card not an R or a D. |
huh??? Texas and N.C got everything they wanted and needed after these recent storms.. they are red states.
Check out the support the P.R. got and got back some to Sandy and the N.E. blue states to see real threats of cutting off funding due to politics. |
I said they had the same threats and problems. That means delays and general government incompetence. California will ultimatley get bailed out as well despite the threats. It's the richest state in the union so it'll be just fine. Keep in mind that it doesn't matter what any prez says, these things are built into the model of doing business. States and nations are merely corporations that take these disasters into account in their long term planning.
|
https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:35 |
Trump and the P.R were one thing.. but much of the threats of withholding funding and all that jazz did not come from Trump.. but the previous regime of idiots (thankfully since voted out) that held the pursestrings. Our House of Represenatives. Especially the southern ones, Texas and Gulf coast who cried and bitched about having to give blue states after Sandy so much.. yet when that big one hit the gulf last year.. were begging for moeny.
Funny how money can run short when you give it all away to the very rich. FEMA and all that were extremely underfunded by our previous House of Represenatives.. thus the threats and warnings. They simply didn't have the money allocated.. thus the emergency funding issues which again.. is part of why that party has driven up the national debt so high.
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
siLLy puPPy
Special Collaborator
PSIKE, JRF/Canterbury, P Metal, Eclectic
Joined: October 05 2013
Location: SFcaUsA
Status: Offline
Points: 15341
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:42 |
|
^ in order to understand why these things operate the way they do, you have to have a grasp on how the US ceased to be a true republic back in the 1840's and has since then been set up as a corporation. Technically an aggregate corporation as opposed to a corpoation sole. Ultimately these systems of dominance stem from the Vatican which runs the world show and pulls the strings in a clandestine fashion. Everyone can bitch about how things are unfolding but unless everyone really does their homework, digs in deep and finds out how things REALLY work, then i'm afraid that they are just spinning their wheels and will continue to wonder why these things go on. Politics is nothing more than kabuki theater while the true goings-on operate behind the scenes. It's not even a theory. Delving into how laws work and the entymology of words goes a long way in learning the reality of it all.
|
https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
|
|
micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: October 02 2005
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 46838
|
Posted: November 11 2018 at 08:51 |
after a couple of more beers perhaps I can answer that.. for in an unimpaired frame of mind. That sounded like a bunch of goobly gook bullsh*t.
sh*t happens.. and mother nature can be a real bitch and a red headed one at that. It is the governments responsibility to be prepared for it. Playing politics with people's lives and livelihoods and taking funding that should be held for such contingencies and emergencies and giving it out as corporate welfare does not sound like anything other than pure irresponsibility and pure politics...
it really is one of the great ironies that over time the Republicans have evolved into the party of fiscal irresponsibiity and by necessity.. often needing to fix their messes going back to Reagan/Bush.. the Democrats have become the party of fiscal responsibiity. Oh they'll spend... but they do balance the books at the end of the day.
|
|
The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
|
|
Donate monthly and keep PA fast-loading and ad-free forever.
/PAlogo_v2.gif "Progarchives.com Homepage")
The American Politics Thread
