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micky View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2017 at 17:10
Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Starting a trade war with Canada?? Confused I assume you mean the softwood lumber duty Canada is being charged to export their lumber to the US?

This duty/tax has been in place since the mid/late 80's, it is nothing new. Nobody said anything, nor knew about the tax when it happened in previous administrations. The negotiations have been going on since last year.
From a home construction cost point of view, the affect is insignificant.


no it is not.  Having spent years in home construction the effect will not be insignificant.

Latest estimate is this 20% duty.. will cost over 8000 American their jobs and yes.. drive up housing prices and limit new home starts.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2017 at 19:40
This move will be applauded by U.S. timber companies and sawmills. This will level the playing field for competition with the Canadian timber companies and perhaps assure that American timber is milled out in America. Having spent years in the timber industry as a logger this is good news.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2017 at 20:52
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Starting a trade war with Canada?? Confused I assume you mean the softwood lumber duty Canada is being charged to export their lumber to the US?

This duty/tax has been in place since the mid/late 80's, it is nothing new. Nobody said anything, nor knew about the tax when it happened in previous administrations. The negotiations have been going on since last year.
From a home construction cost point of view, the affect is insignificant.


no it is not.  Having spent years in home construction the effect will not be insignificant.

Latest estimate is this 20% duty.. will cost over 8000 American their jobs and yes.. drive up housing prices and limit new home starts.

Wrong Thumbs Down
I have been in the forest products industry for about 30 years and since the first duty was imposed in the early 80's, which I think was 15%, the housing industry has only been growing, irregardless of lumber pricing. Which if you do not know is a commodity, you cannot fix a price on lumber for long term to say it will drive up home prices. Homes are also a commodity....
The lumber market is a very volatile market at times, when lumber prices run, due to demand, that price can increase by 5-20% in a week. Also if a mill runs very efficiently and the market is in the toilet at the time, then they can only drop their prices to move the production, hence it is a commodity market.

Probably the biggest impact to home construction in the past 20 years has been labor costs, salaries, benefits, hourly wages have close to doubled since the 80's for framers. And this is all very good!! 

Costs of lumber, insignificant.......End of 2016 the Framing Lumber Composite price was about $360/MBF, you need about 17,000 board feet of lumber to build a 2,000 sqft home, or $6,120 for your lumber package, add 20% for the duty and the package jumps to a whopping, un-affordable price of $7,344 or $1,224 increase or $0.612 per sqft.....insignificant because the "Mrs" will add significantly much more to the price of the house when she decides to upgrade the flooring, countertops, kitchen cabinets and fixtures... 

Do you honestly believe the prices of homes is driven by lumber prices?? If so then that 1,200 sqft house in So Calif should still run you $75,000.....No dude, that house goes for $400K!!

This duty has helped logging families and private mill owners in the US, as well as all the downstream workers like the log truck drivers......Again, this has only come into the public's eye because the final decision has come under Trump's watch, again nobody gave a rats a$$ all the other times this softwood lumber agreement has been signed.

If anyone in the residential construction industry losers their job it is because they can't drive a nail straight, can't figure out how many sheets of plywood to order for the roof or don't know the difference between a 16D Sinker and a 10D Finish nail.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2017 at 22:34
^^^  So on a tangent, I want to play devil's advocate here.  Hasn't USA been the so called city upon a hill, the guardian of freedom and all that for long enough?  I mean, what are these countries that have zero import duties AND absolutely open, no questions asked immigration?  Maybe there are a few really tiny ones that are that open but which large nations are?  Don't Canada or Australia have merit based immigration already?  Does China allow any tom, dick, harry from any country to export into their country without duties? So why is USA suddenly being made out as this horrible protectionist beast?  Why shouldn't other countries walk the talk?  Let Germany show themselves to be the true leader of the free world hence forth.  It would be a welcome development if other nations shared USA's burden as well.  There was an inherent hypocrisy in this arrangement where USA was doing all the heavy lifting in exchange for being the undisputed world superpower.  It has obviously rocked not one but several boats now that it's being called into question but let somebody else step up and truly take over the reigns so as to truly punish USA for its protectionism.  I mean, not by deviousness or brute force like Russia or China to a lesser extent, but by actually championing free trade and movement of labour.  Are the heads of state of any of the nations vehemently condemning Trump actually prepared to pick up the tab? Yeah, I am not exactly waiting with bated breath to find out.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 07:59
Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Starting a trade war with Canada?? Confused I assume you mean the softwood lumber duty Canada is being charged to export their lumber to the US?

This duty/tax has been in place since the mid/late 80's, it is nothing new. Nobody said anything, nor knew about the tax when it happened in previous administrations. The negotiations have been going on since last year.
From a home construction cost point of view, the affect is insignificant.


no it is not.  Having spent years in home construction the effect will not be insignificant.

Latest estimate is this 20% duty.. will cost over 8000 American their jobs and yes.. drive up housing prices and limit new home starts.

Wrong Thumbs Down
I have been in the forest products industry for about 30 years and since the first duty was imposed in the early 80's, which I think was 15%, the housing industry has only been growing, irregardless of lumber pricing. Which if you do not know is a commodity, you cannot fix a price on lumber for long term to say it will drive up home prices. Homes are also a commodity....
The lumber market is a very volatile market at times, when lumber prices run, due to demand, that price can increase by 5-20% in a week. Also if a mill runs very efficiently and the market is in the toilet at the time, then they can only drop their prices to move the production, hence it is a commodity market.

Probably the biggest impact to home construction in the past 20 years has been labor costs, salaries, benefits, hourly wages have close to doubled since the 80's for framers. And this is all very good!! 

Costs of lumber, insignificant.......End of 2016 the Framing Lumber Composite price was about $360/MBF, you need about 17,000 board feet of lumber to build a 2,000 sqft home, or $6,120 for your lumber package, add 20% for the duty and the package jumps to a whopping, un-affordable price of $7,344 or $1,224 increase or $0.612 per sqft.....insignificant because the "Mrs" will add significantly much more to the price of the house when she decides to upgrade the flooring, countertops, kitchen cabinets and fixtures... 

Do you honestly believe the prices of homes is driven by lumber prices?? If so then that 1,200 sqft house in So Calif should still run you $75,000.....No dude, that house goes for $400K!!

This duty has helped logging families and private mill owners in the US, as well as all the downstream workers like the log truck drivers......Again, this has only come into the public's eye because the final decision has come under Trump's watch, again nobody gave a rats a$$ all the other times this softwood lumber agreement has been signed.

If anyone in the residential construction industry losers their job it is because they can't drive a nail straight, can't figure out how many sheets of plywood to order for the roof or don't know the difference between a 16D Sinker and a 10D Finish nail.


in short... yes I do.. and I'm not alone

http://nahbnow.com/2017/04/what-is-the-impact-of-new-duties-on-canadian-lumber/




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:10
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

^^^  So on a tangent, I want to play devil's advocate here.  Hasn't USA been the so called city upon a hill, the guardian of freedom and all that for long enough?  I mean, what are these countries that have zero import duties AND absolutely open, no questions asked immigration?  Maybe there are a few really tiny ones that are that open but which large nations are?  Don't Canada or Australia have merit based immigration already?  Does China allow any tom, dick, harry from any country to export into their country without duties? So why is USA suddenly being made out as this horrible protectionist beast?  Why shouldn't other countries walk the talk?  Let Germany show themselves to be the true leader of the free world hence forth.  It would be a welcome development if other nations shared USA's burden as well.  There was an inherent hypocrisy in this arrangement where USA was doing all the heavy lifting in exchange for being the undisputed world superpower.  It has obviously rocked not one but several boats now that it's being called into question but let somebody else step up and truly take over the reigns so as to truly punish USA for its protectionism.  I mean, not by deviousness or brute force like Russia or China to a lesser extent, but by actually championing free trade and movement of labour.  Are the heads of state of any of the nations vehemently condemning Trump actually prepared to pick up the tab? Yeah, I am not exactly waiting with bated breath to find out.  


interesting question man.. and probably a rather deep subject.

Basically  I do think it goes back to the first point you made. The house upon the hill and all that jazz. We do take a national pride in being as such thus the extreme reaction to Trump who merely isn't a President with whom you disagree but one who is fundementally opposed to the ideals which made this country was it became,  and yes the world still looks to us to be that thus their very strong reaction against Trump LOL  There are benefits that come with it... just as there are costs.  Quite simply you can't have your cake and eat it to.. which is the apparent motto of the current administration. Ermm


Edited by micky - April 29 2017 at 08:14
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:20
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

^^^  So on a tangent, I want to play devil's advocate here.  Hasn't USA been the so called city upon a hill, the guardian of freedom and all that for long enough?  I mean, what are these countries that have zero import duties AND absolutely open, no questions asked immigration?  Maybe there are a few really tiny ones that are that open but which large nations are?  Don't Canada or Australia have merit based immigration already?  Does China allow any tom, dick, harry from any country to export into their country without duties? So why is USA suddenly being made out as this horrible protectionist beast?  Why shouldn't other countries walk the talk?  Let Germany show themselves to be the true leader of the free world hence forth.  It would be a welcome development if other nations shared USA's burden as well.  There was an inherent hypocrisy in this arrangement where USA was doing all the heavy lifting in exchange for being the undisputed world superpower.  It has obviously rocked not one but several boats now that it's being called into question but let somebody else step up and truly take over the reigns so as to truly punish USA for its protectionism.  I mean, not by deviousness or brute force like Russia or China to a lesser extent, but by actually championing free trade and movement of labour.  Are the heads of state of any of the nations vehemently condemning Trump actually prepared to pick up the tab? Yeah, I am not exactly waiting with bated breath to find out.  
Aside from the hyperbole, America is still the country that everyone wants to immigrate to. From India, Russia and many many countries from Central and South America. It is still the "City on Hill", but along with all cities, it's not perfect. But it is better.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:26

Trump: 'This Job's Harder Than I Thought' - Free Beacon

freebeacon.com/politics/trump-jobs-harder-thought/
1 day ago - Trump on Being President: 'I Thought It Would Be Easier' ... on Thursday that being President of the United States is harder than he thought.


What can you say to something like this? Yeah, it's tougher than your old TV job, Donald. Get use to it.


Edited by SteveG - April 29 2017 at 08:26
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:49
^So what, is he saying anything previous presidents have not said before. Demonization of Trump and his supporters is not going to solve America's problems.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:50
of course it is...  he thought he was going to be CEO of America.. appoint a bunch of people to do all the hard work while he plays golfs, gropes the secretaries and takes credit for the underlings work. (see the first Health Care debacle where he thought he'd swoop in, knowing nothing of the details of the bill, and 'close' the deal and take credit for its passage. Whoops)

as often is said... for so many think it translates.... running a business is NOTHING like running a nation or a government. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:53
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

^So what, is he saying anything previous presidents have not said before. Demonization of Trump and his supporters is not going to solve America's problems.


perhaps not.. or perhaps... one could say that America's 'problems' today start in large part because those that could have kept Trump out of the White House weren't inspired to get out and off their asses and vote.

If demonizing him and the GOP gets people motivated to vote.. and it appears that it is... then perhaps it does start solving America's problems. .which could be said to start with a apathetic and ignorant electorate.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:54
^and you have done both in your fantasy world



Edited by timothy leary - April 29 2017 at 09:00
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 08:56
This " I thought it wouldn't be so hard" schtick from Trump is wearing thin, Tim. He said the same about health reform. He is the one living in a fantasy world.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 09:00
yeah...  and I bet his fantasy world doesn't involve Captcha unlike ours  LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 09:02
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

of course it is...  he thought he was going to be CEO of America.. appoint a bunch of people to do all the hard work while he plays golfs, gropes the secretaries and takes credit for the underlings work. (see the first Health Care debacle where he thought he'd swoop in, knowing nothing of the details of the bill, and 'close' the deal and take credit for its passage. Whoops)

as often is said... for so many think it translates.... running a business is NOTHING like running a nation or a government. 
^and you have done both in your fantasy world.......there Steve G, was not talking to you

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 09:05
ehh... Demonizing the left has worked for the right for decades..it fires up the troops and gets them out to vote. about time the left learned it.. and applied it for you know what.. .looking the double digit increases for Democrats across the board in elections (local, state, and national) since Trump was elected.

it works...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 09:06
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

yeah...  and I bet his fantasy world doesn't involve Captcha unlike ours  LOL
Could you imagine Trump dealing with a captcha. He would pay to have someone pick out all the vehicles and traffic signs for him! LOL

Edited by SteveG - April 29 2017 at 09:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 09:13
man what a scary thought....that just might make his unhinged twitter rants even more deranged and thus entertaining.. lord knows we all know how Captcha can get under ones skin...and who has thinner skin than our dear President.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 10:25
That article has no calories, no substance, it's a green salad made for a rabbit. It assumes that the duty will force retail lumber yards, who supply the residential housing market, to actually STOP buying lumber and stop supplying their customer base. Really?? That's a load of elephant slop!
So you believe that a retail outfit like BMC West will actually stop buying lumber and tell their home builder customers they cannot get any more 2x4 material for them?? LOL.......
That is so far from the real business world.

Again, you guys and media only have a problem with this duty because Trump signed it, had your precious Obama signed it you would not have said ONE WORD!!! This issue has been going on since last year.
BTW, the NAFTA agreement allows high value appearance plywood to enter the US from Chile for free...FREE!! No duty!! This has caused plywood mills in the US to close because they cannot compete with Chile on that product. 
Birch plywood from China, it also comes in FREE!!! Causing huge prices discounts in the US and US plywood mills to heavily discount, to lay off workers in the mill, loggers and so on.

That's the real world.....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2017 at 11:41
But that's such a short-sighted reasoning that gets rehashed all the time; if lumber is so cheap doesn't that mean your country as a whole has to put in less money and effort to obtain it, and as such don't you collectively have more money in the end? Then you look at who gains this extra money, probably the people buying the most new 'house' by measure of lumber used, so probably the highest class, and then you tax a part of this new profit away so you can invest in companies who CAN compete with the international market as well as the education needed to work there and you improve unemployment, right? This isolationist theory only looks at when a job is lost, what the direct cause of it is, without looking at the new possibilities that also came from this cause. You can be a bit isolationist of course, for the sake of stability, but DO think of the future...
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