American Politics the 2016 edition

^Man even to this day the Soviet politburo gives me the hots...  

^

Equality 7-2521 wrote: JJLehto wrote: It sounds nutty, and I'm not really buying the blackmail thing, BUT his Putin ties are worse than I ever imagined.  This article released yesterday certainly shows some smoke, though no fire. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html The claim isn't new btw, on Sept 9 Evan McMullin said some people in the CIA believe Trump has been blackmailed 2016 is truly insane, let's say there's nothing to that. We have legitimate people going around saying a candidate for a major party for PotUS is blackmailed by Russia. This is the state of things, the point we've reached The FBI disagrees.

So much panic.... 

The T wrote: So much panic....

Yup. I haven't been this scared since I saw The Exorcist.

Well the FBIs actions have taken their toll. 538 has her chances down to 65% (was over 85 over a week ago) and OH, IA, NC all tipped red, NV, FL on the fence. Now the CO NM VA firewall is enough to ensure a 273-265 victory at worst, but still scary how quick she's tumbled. It really is all about who has the last bad news....the masses of undecideds keep swinging after each event. Like I figured. Let's hope they have a Trump bombshell up their sleeves. 

Edited by JJLehto - November 04 2016 at 00:21

^You have to see the logic behind the FBI's move. Under Hillary they will be just another agency. Under Trump they will be upgraded to a SS-level force (while the CIA becomes a GESTAPO-like agency). 

JJLehto wrote: Speaking of the FBI...seems the bleeding from their actions has finally stopped.  Clinton still leads the polls but she is now at her bare minimum.  No word from Micky suddenly? But really, this election may be tight, certainly no blowout. Clinton supporters have a right to be happy, 10 years of waiting can finally come to an end, just hope they are ready for a short party. Once Jan comes, the nightmare of normal politics can resume Given her unpopularity entering, a very likely split Congress, not gunna be a fun time ahead.

the whole of the last week hurt the FBI more than it did Clinton. Why?

the FBI dealio gave the anti-Clinton's a ray of hope and that will mobilize their voters..  but conversely it will the do the same for Clinton votes.  There has been a tightening of the polls..  sure... but Clinton was so far ahead it should make no difference.

what I will be curious about is testing my theory that the polls are underselling Clintons real support.  I fully expect a few suprises on Tuesday.. some results the polls didn't fully catch. 

the hispanic vote.  For all the talk of the missing white vote.. there truly is a missing vote segement to the US population and it is the Hispanic vote.  While most all demographics turn out to vote in the 60's percentage wise.. the hispanic vote has been significantly less.. in the 40's.   Word coming in from early vote is hispanic vote has been mobilized and if even gets into the 50's... that is millions of votes for Hillary and I don't know if the national polls are catching it.

Remember... 2012...  they also undersold the soft belly of Democratic support.  I dont' think the election will be the runaway it could have been, the FBI leak likely ended dreams of that by removing the element of a depressed Republican vote... but to use Silver's much maligned numbers   I'd say 65-35 Hillary no doubter win  (over by 8pm in the east) over a close election (she gets less than 300 electoral votes).

the one thing the FBI bombshell likely did was significantly decrease the odds of the House flipping... depressed Repubican turnout was going to be the key to that for the Democrats.

two days left

I read this morning that Putin was showing up at Trump rallies. I thought this was a joke or satire.
I wouldn't think endorsement from a Russian leader would be good for a supposed "conservative Republican", this election campaign has become surreal.

Is this actually helping Trump, or is this another faux paus? I am beyond confused here.

js (Easy Money) wrote: I wouldn't think endorsement from a Russian leader would be good for a supposed "conservative Republican", this election campaign has become surreal. Is this actually helping Trump, or is this another faux paus? I am beyond confused here.

Trump is NOT a conservative Republican for starters...

and no... I would wager most Americans don't realize that Putin is a menace to world peace.  The Russians? Weren't they the bad guys in Red Dawn 30 years ago...

remember John.. we are not talking about the most enlightened or intelletual of electorates..

lock her up...emails... building walls... bringing back jobs that are never coming back....that is what they care about. Putin? who?