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JJLehto View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 15:47
Yeah I have no, and never had any, concern about PA. 
What I do have concern about is the fact Ohio has been a tossup, and actually leaning Trump. 
Nevada has tightened up, which was shocking to me, Iowa still leans Trump. NC has been leaning Trump, though it's swung back to dead heat in the latest projection. FL is currently leaning blue, but it was actually a tad tilted for Trump. It's kinda concerning it's even been this close. Oh, and any hope for AZ and GA have been dashedLOL They are very solidly for Trump. 


I will wait and see, let's give it a week, how big her post debate bump is. Because like I said, long as there's "dead time" Trump will eat into her lead. She needs the debates to keep her numbers up. I was very sure she'd win with a 2008-esque number. Now, I fear she may barely eek out a win. Its possible Clinton wins with just the "core blue" states, VA, NM, CO and NV.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 16:00
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Speaking of 538 I found this article VERY sobering. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-could-elect-trump-but-first-they-need-to-register/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
They estimate that 47 million white, non college educated, Americans did not vote in 2012. 24 million of which were men. "Missing white voters" they call it, those eligible to vote but did not. 

*snip*. 


ahhh.. the missing white vote... the fountain of eternal youth...the El Dorado of American Politics.

worrying about it Brian is as much a waste of time as the GOP has wasted in trying to mine every last white vote.  Look at it this way...  if the fear of Obama didn't bring them out.. with as things go.. RATIONAL GOP candidates.. What makes anyone think they would magically appear this year when there is not a colored Muslim to vote against...  and to support what... the single most disliked candidate in American history. The folly of the GOP is the Democratic gain.. for they refuse to moderate their policies to be more inclusive.. in the hope that THIS would be the year they could magically get the 'missing' white vote to turn out.  Thus the barely disguised racism prevalent in this campaign out of Trump. It is the last ditch appeal TO get them out. But like anything.. with actions.. there ARE consequences

 

Thus as I have posted several times...  driving the rapidly emerging (and very substantial I may note) 'missing' hispanic votes... firmly into the Democratic party, as happened with the black vote, on a generational basis. 

It is what Political scienctists will be looking at down the road as the root cause of the death of the Republican Party. They lose the hispanic vote as they did the Black vote.. it is GAME OVER for them as a party.

To be fair, I did say it's unlikely much will come of it, NOW but ya know....arrogance tends to be people's downfall. We've seen they can be won, if only Trump and the GOP actually tried. That was more the point of the post, there's been this air of "this is whacky but it's just not possible" and that article showed no, it's actually VERY possible for Trump (or anyone like him) to win. Hell, if turnout is low enough (which is very possible) Trump may still win. I used to assume Trump is so awful people will say "OK dont like Clinton but I cant just not vote" however, I am now more sure lots of people just wont vote. Sad and stupid as it is. 

Yeah, we know all thatLOL It's not exactly news , just IDK man I dont like the arrogance. Bush was quite popular with hispanics. And it's funny, some minorities (and especially Hispanics) have a tendency towards social conservatism. Really if the GOP could be less sh*t, and not racist, there's no reason to just assume things continue as they do forever. 

And if you wanna talk about the future....remember the upcoming bloc, those pesky millennials, really dont like Clinton. This of course can't cover millions of people, but just personal anecdote: At my job not one hispanic or black person around my age (most are younger) like Clinton. A few will go "lesser of two evils" some are just not voting. Some have said they have no faith in the Democratic Party, either in general or to help them... Of course things can change. But all I can say is:
Us youngins are told constantly "You havent seen the old Hillary/dont know the real Hillary. Just wait!" Just wait...just wait, just wait. 

All Im gunna say is we'll see what 8 years of President Clinton gets us. If it goes the way many think....the current youth bloc is not a guarantee to vote in the future. And since we millennials do have this bi polar "one day Sanders one day Rand Paul" deal, I still say it's very possible for a new look GOP to sweep up. Like I've said before the Dems BETTER take advantage. If not I'll call it now, a Trump loss may be good for the GOP. If they can jettison the racism, and embrace minorities (which they were trying to do but still have what racism baggage) and focus on right wing populism (libertarian).....I really fear for that. 

Reminds me of Bill's speech at the DNC. I was insulted a bit at one part "Those of us with more days behind us than ahead tend to look forward" besides the obvious jab in there I remember thinking no...most of you are stuck thinking in the past, or immediately ahead. I honestly have a big concern the Dems will squander what could be a great opportunity. They've shown to me little over the years to thus far make me think otherwise. 


ahhh.. if if if...  if the government announces tomorrow the world ends... the Big Mick turns into an extra from the Road Warrior. The 538 piece is rubbish...if Trump was a nice guy and respectful .. if the missing white vote turned up.. if my dick was only bigger hah! Some things are as they are and aren't going to change.  Trump is what he is.. and the missing white vote has been chased by the GOP for 20 years. Blacks aren't the only ones that can't be bothered to vote... it actually happens to whites as well Smile.  What is the point of the article.. it is possible.. of course of is.  Anything is possible.. banking on low Democratic turnout seems like last hope GOP thinking to me...along with thinking the polls are all wrong..  the notion should not be Democratic turnout.. but GOP turnout. They are the ones with the real problem..

as far as the youth vote... the best that can be said for them.. is they will grow out of the idealism of youth.  See that life isn't all prettily black and white..... just many shades of grey. That is why the youth tend to vote Democratic and go their own ways as they grow older. Those that mature into bigoted white power fundies wil go Republican..... those that believe in a diverse and accepting society will vote democratic. Those that don't care either way will become the next generations version of the missing white/hispanic/black vote.  It is war out there.... either you take a stand or you get all the way off the bus.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 16:09
Speaking of race, I finished listening to this fascinating podcast that I want to share here. 

Dealt with school integration, a topic long forgotten about. 
Basically: School integration happened from 1971 (when busing began) to 1988. As we know, people have re segregated by moving, and the situation today is as bad as it was in the 60s. We all know this, and its why integration was considered a failure. That white people basically just didn't let it happen. 

Well, the actual process of integration was analyzed and in that 17 year period: the black/white test gap fell in half. 17 years. This is what make integration's failure even sadder. It worked. Just people couldn't accept it.

More recently there was an unexpected integration in a St Louis area school district. This district was so bad, they lost their accreditation. There was a law on the books saying if this happened, students here could be bused, for free, to another district. A middle class, mostly white district was chosen. 
And: it worked. Test scores didn't drop, there was no violence or any of the fears white parents had. Black students who were bused there did better. It was working. 

Until the state created a "new district" where they simply tweaked the name of the original St Louis one, and labeled this new one as "not accredited" opposed to "unaccredited". Technically.....the law covered unaccredited, sooooo many of the students were forced to go back to their old district. One that was now in total shambles. An AP test was considered middle school level. Teachers sometimes didn't show up. 
Despite the success, integration just seems to be too painful for lots of people to acceptCry 

Was a sad sad listen. As a young person, I knew racism existed of course, but this direct racism like the olden days I imagined was gone. Until 2015. I pray my current generation will be better, but one thing I thought about is: Many of today's parents in the podcast, were children decades ago. They went through integration, were moved away, kept at arm's length from black people. I wonder if kids today who are moved away/never have to interact with other people while probably being told racist things at home...will just continue the cycle. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 16:20
Well Im not sure about all of that. Trump doesn't HAVE to be nicer...we have Bevin running around with "blood must be shed" if Hillary wins, Scott Walker comparing union protesters to Isis, Steve King saying mexicans are sneaking in 100 lb bags of marijuana and only white people have contributed to western culture. Pence is a pretty disgusting person in his own right. A somewhat more GOP acceptable Trump is all they would need. Most Repub governors came out ASAP to say they dont want to accept Syrian refugees. They don't need anyone nicerLOL 

You're right, the GOP has been chasing that bloc for years, they tried to court the Perot voters many of which were "missing white" voters. I dont know man, Perot and Trump have laid blueprints. Perot said people don't care about details, Trump has proven it. Doesn't seem hard to me to find a Tea Partier, many of which are religious social conservative nuts, that can hit the right chords. Hell, "pro police" is now the not subtle at all buzzword used to imply racism. Like "less welfare" or "aggressive policing/tough on crime" but more blatant. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 16:21
the optimist in me believes we will finally move past all that. We are making baby steps... the whole 180 on gay rights tells me we actually can adapt and become more enlightened. However it doesn't help of course to have one of our political parties play the race card so freely.  Blacks, hispanics... all a threat to whites. I suppose we'll never fully move past our history of racism no matter how enlightened some are here, even a majority until we remove the institutional elements that continue to propagate it.

defeat racism...  vote out a Republican LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 16:32
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

the optimist in me believes we will finally move past all that. We are making baby steps... the whole 180 on gay rights tells me we actually can adapt and become more enlightened. However it doesn't help of course to have one of our political parties play the race card so freely.  Blacks, hispanics... all a threat to whites. I suppose we'll never fully move past our history of racism no matter how enlightened some are here, even a majority until we remove the institutional elements that continue to propagate it.

defeat racism...  vote out a Republican LOL

Well that's the thing. I was very lucky to have grown up in a pretty diverse area, like actually diverse.  I had to learn that lots of areas are still segregated, including in many cities and yup even in the Northeast. (Guess the suburbs really weren't so bad!) but it's what you say...institutional elements. With so many people having been taught racism, and living segregated, (add to it schools, churches, police and buzz words to mask it) and yeah, it's hard to have hope sometimes. Like, it'll need a real fundamental, probably ugly ass, change to society.

And for sure. While I've seen lots of people discussing the "party of Lincoln" and jumping to cite Robert Byrd.....the overtly racist Democrat is pretty much extinct. While some righties are right to point out Byrd, gotta love how this somehow ignores the current racism sweeping their own party. And Byrd, at least publicly, abandoned those views and apologized which many fail to point outLOL

Lots of their backers have switched Republican, where I'll be fair it's not always been racism, being tough on commies, social conservatism/religious hamming up, have been other ways to win people over. But yeah, I do feel a bit bad for the party in a way. 
They tried for Rubio, they really do see the error of old ways, but can't shed that baggage. Maybe Trump will be the crash diet they needLOL Starve em to death and then rebuild strongerCry


Edited by JJLehto - October 02 2016 at 16:42
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2016 at 18:04
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

the optimist in me believes we will finally move past all that. We are making baby steps... the whole 180 on gay rights tells me we actually can adapt and become more enlightened. However it doesn't help of course to have one of our political parties play the race card so freely.  Blacks, hispanics... all a threat to whites. I suppose we'll never fully move past our history of racism no matter how enlightened some are here, even a majority until we remove the institutional elements that continue to propagate it.

defeat racism...  vote out a Republican LOL

Well that's the thing. I was very lucky to have grown up in a pretty diverse area, like actually diverse.  I had to learn that lots of areas are still segregated, including in many cities and yup even in the Northeast. (Guess the suburbs really weren't so bad!) but it's what you say...institutional elements. With so many people having been taught racism, and living segregated, (add to it schools, churches, police and buzz words to mask it) and yeah, it's hard to have hope sometimes. Like, it'll need a real fundamental, probably ugly ass, change to society.

And for sure. While I've seen lots of people discussing the "party of Lincoln" and jumping to cite Robert Byrd.....the overtly racist Democrat is pretty much extinct. While some righties are right to point out Byrd, gotta love how this somehow ignores the current racism sweeping their own party. And Byrd, at least publicly, abandoned those views and apologized which many fail to point outLOL

Lots of their backers have switched Republican, where I'll be fair it's not always been racism, being tough on commies, social conservatism/religious hamming up, have been other ways to win people over. But yeah, I do feel a bit bad for the party in a way. 
They tried for Rubio, they really do see the error of old ways, but can't shed that baggage. Maybe Trump will be the crash diet they needLOL Starve em to death and then rebuild strongerCry


funny for me... coming from one of the most liberal cities and states in the country. It was when I was child, and still is today very homogeniuous.   I still remember quite vididly when my best friend disappeared from school. He was probably one of only 3 black kids in my school.  Later i found out his family didn't want him going to school with a bunch of jive ass honkies and they moved to the black enclave of town so he could be with his own. I was like.. what the f**k man... so yeah racism was right in your face even as child. It definitely left an imprint on me as a child.

Perhaps that.. in addition to the years I lived in the deep south even having contact (NOT of my own design haha) with the still very much alive KKK is why I have developed such a passionate, militant, hatred of it and those that continue to practice it. None more than those who do so for nothing more than political gain. I can understand those raised in teh culture of it, I have zero good will for those that directly profit from it. Nor... those that support them with their votes.  Thus my vitriol and venom I regularly display here.. and trust me.. I was worse on Facebook. Thus the vacation from there at least till the election is done hahah.

Much more than economics Brian.. that is what rocks my political world.  As to your thought on the youth... do you really think as they grow older and mature... that they will really give two sh*ts about Wall Street when they see the friends, minority friends, they grew up with and saw as no differently as them are seen as threats to the American way of life, or our values.  That is the war I speak of, it is a culture war and more than being caught up in it, I count on and suspect they will be the front lines going forward to perhaps finally stamp out racism in this country. At least in its most insidious form.. the institutional racism that can not be eliminated until those who profit from continuing to play off whites versus the coming minority majority are removed from power.  The young voters will have that power as my generation and especially the older ones bite the dust.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 14:54
Got a couple more despicable things fresh from the bakery: a new ad tries to shame Tim Kaine for being a defense attorney, with the RNC twitter specifically connecting it to the vile Willie Horton ad in its praise, and Trump attacks veterans again by implying that many of those suffering from PTSD don't really need help.

There's no words for any of that filth, so I'll remind that there's evidence that the missing white vote really is El Dorado: back in the primaries, it was noted that Trump voters, like the usual GOP voters, had higher than average incomes. Should El Dorado have been found by Don Lope de Trump, you would expect the median to at least be comparable to that of Hillary and Bern voters, much closer to the average - the working class actually rising up for Cheeto Jesus. But it's just the same old same old.

And for anybody who likes looking back at political history, PBS will be airing a documentary on the Vidal/Buckley debates from '68 tonight.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 18:07
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

defeat racism...  vote out a Republican LOL

As if liberals were any better...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 19:58
^ Don't know if I'd call Malcom a liberal--  visionary, radical, maybe progressive, but not liberal.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 20:07
For sure, Malcolm X was no liberal, and he didn't care much for 'liberals' either.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 20:21
Originally posted by LearsFool LearsFool wrote:

Got a couple more despicable things fresh from the bakery: a new ad tries to shame Tim Kaine for being a defense attorney, with the RNC twitter specifically connecting it to the vile Willie Horton ad in its praise, and Trump attacks veterans again by implying that many of those suffering from PTSD don't really need help.

There's no words for any of that filth, so I'll remind that there's evidence that the missing white vote really is El Dorado: back in the primaries, it was noted that Trump voters, like the usual GOP voters, had higher than average incomes. Should El Dorado have been found by Don Lope de Trump, you would expect the median to at least be comparable to that of Hillary and Bern voters, much closer to the average - the working class actually rising up for Cheeto Jesus. But it's just the same old same old.

And for anybody who likes looking back at political history, PBS will be airing a documentary on the Vidal/Buckley debates from '68 tonight.

Typical GOP...regressive as always. Can't even come up with new attack adsLOL

Well thats true. I didnt say Trump HAS brought them out or even will, if anything it's unlikely, just that they DO exist, and they do on occasion come out for a Perot or Trump (if Pat Buchanan ran today he'd probably have done disturbingly well...he was 20 years too soon). Point was mainly it's scary to just think how realistic it is...and that in theory, it can happen. 

Oh that will be nice. Will be great to see a proper, real debate. The days where even if you strongly disagree (Buckley) you can't help but respect the atmosphere and intellect.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 20:27
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

^ Don't know if I'd call Malcom a liberal--  visionary, radical, maybe progressive, but not liberal.

Definitely not a liberal, which is why I posted it. Another similar sentiment:
Originally posted by MLK MLK wrote:

I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2016 at 23:48
Well Mick, I try to not be involved the culture war since I think it was created by the religious right anyway, which kind of leads me naturally to my response to your couple of posts on "the youth will grow up and drop the idealism"
I sincerely believe we, politically caring ones, are actually pretty realistic. We care deeply about issues. I know I said this before, it's why we have this bi polar oscillation between Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders. We care about issues, and know how important they are. We don't care as much about personality, political lines, many righties don't care about the GOP and their games with the budget, or lefties and their disdain for the Dems and their lip services. The issues we believe matter, and most people admit that. Just "its unrealistic" "wont happen" etc etc
Well, gotta try? It's kind of amazing when you look at how beliefs can change over decades, hell even years(as 2008 to now has shown). So I think we're pretty realistic in our concerns on a number of issues, and realistic in wanting to some changes to politics to reflect this. 


Edit: Just so it's clear I said politically caring ones. Of course my generation is plagued with apathy, which I get but saddens me and is of course unrealistic in itself since the way to bring change is to f-ing vote. And many are certainly unrealistic in other aspects: Like the "regressive left vs alt right" war that is on tumblr, reddit, FB. Im stopping myself now because it makes me so angry how stupid that debacle is, and howso many of my fellow millennials view life, on both sides of the aisle. But I do think those of us who care and bother are pretty realistic yeah


Edited by JJLehto - October 03 2016 at 23:52
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 00:14
I'm voting Roosevelt
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 04:10
Originally posted by EddieRUKiddingVarese EddieRUKiddingVarese wrote:

I'm voting Roosevelt
Yeah, well he wouldn't bother to vote for either of these candidates. Sick
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 20:49
I'm disappointed in Kaine - Pence couldn't defend Trump and traded in constant lies, but Kaine has turned out not to have the rhetorical flourish and composure to skewer Pence. I expected better of Kaine.

Still, Kaine ruled on policy and pointing out Trump's despicability.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 20:57
Originally posted by LearsFool LearsFool wrote:

I'm disappointed in Kaine - Pence couldn't defend Trump and traded in constant lies, but Kaine has turned out not to have the rhetorical flourish and composure to skewer Pence. I expected better of Kaine.

Still, Kaine ruled on policy and pointing out Trump's despicability.

Mike Pence is as rigid as a military cot. You could bounce a quarter off his ass. Overall, another useless surrogate VP debate. Although I think Pence was in the unenviable spot of being completely unable to counter all the direct quotes spewed by Trump that Kaine brought up. You just can't defend stupid. And Pence could only shrug or grimace and change the subject.

I am surprised during the dialogue about abortion that Kaine didn't mention the 6 million women protesting the abortion ban in Poland. It would have brought some stark clarity about the religious rights' worldwide war on vaginas.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2016 at 22:11
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

Originally posted by LearsFool LearsFool wrote:

I'm disappointed in Kaine - Pence couldn't defend Trump and traded in constant lies, but Kaine has turned out not to have the rhetorical flourish and composure to skewer Pence. I expected better of Kaine.

Still, Kaine ruled on policy and pointing out Trump's despicability.

Mike Pence is as rigid as a military cot. You could bounce a quarter off his ass. Overall, another useless surrogate VP debate. Although I think Pence was in the unenviable spot of being completely unable to counter all the direct quotes spewed by Trump that Kaine brought up. You just can't defend stupid. And Pence could only shrug or grimace and change the subject.

I am surprised during the dialogue about abortion that Kaine didn't mention the 6 million women protesting the abortion ban in Poland. It would have brought some stark clarity about the religious rights' worldwide war on vaginas.

All very true - what went unsaid was Kaine's biggest problem, including so much of Pence's record as governor.

But now, media reviews are in, and Pence has been characterised as covering his behind at Trump's expense. The big man who earlier congratulated his veep may now turn on him.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2016 at 02:11
Originally posted by LearsFool LearsFool wrote:

Trump attacks veterans again by implying that many of those suffering from PTSD don't really need help.



I really can't get too worked up over that....sh*t.. I'm still worked up over Cheney's comments from oh so long ago LOL

Funny how those who took multiple deferments become such experts and tough guy and hawks...  normally that kind of comment would have killed the viability of any candidate.

then again.. this said it best. If there is one thing we have learned in 2016 it is this...

If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the 2016 electorate after dozens of polls, it’s this: The Republicans could have nominated a mile-high mound of flaming medical waste and between 38 and 43 percent of the American electorate would have voted for it

which goes back to what I said in that other thread... it isn't our governement that is broken.. it is the electorate.
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