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Dean 
Special Collaborator 
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
 Posted: September 09 2016 at 02:46 |
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Polls are tantamount to meaningless in this election as there are too many unknown variables that haven't occurred in any election before because of who the candidates are. We also have to consider the effect that pre-election polls have on election results because voters are influenced by poll results. I suspect that there will be a marked difference between the polls and final result but which way that will go isn't as easy to predict as it appears because this election is so different to any that have happened before. Predictions using polled data are based upon historical trends, and those fly out the window with Trump and Clinton without having to factor-in whatever effect Johnson will have or Sanders has had.
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What?
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The T
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 16 2006 Location: FL, USA Status: Offline Points: 17493 |
Posted: September 09 2016 at 08:14 |
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I am trying not to focus on polls and if I really need to I check only state polls, which in the end are the relevant ones. The idiotic state where I live already is showing a tie between the candidates, other battleground states are tightening or even going the wrong way...
Yes, terror is crawling back inside me. I fear the US may finally prove to the world that all they have been saying about this country's intelligence is actually true...  Trump yesterday basically proved non-US-conspiracy-theorists right when he actually said "we should take their [Middle East nations] oil" , so the joke about Americans being idiots may be proven right, too. In the words of Trump, "what do we have to lose?"
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer 
Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: September 09 2016 at 10:43 |
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I hope it doesn't become a case of too-clever-by-half for the Democratic party. The elections are changing everywhere and new (rather dangerous, am afraid) factors are deciding them rather than the conventional arithmetic (left/right ideology in the West, religion and caste in India). And an incumbent party offering an establishment candidate is particularly vulnerable to attack by a freak outsider. This is what happened in India in 2014 too, except that the outsider in question, Arvind Kejriwal, messed up big time very close to the elections and in desperation the electorate turned to Modi. Nobody is going to give you this version in mainstream media but this is what a cabbie told me on the day after Modi got elected. People are desperate for new solutions because it's 8 years now since the meltdown and the political system has yet to offer anything other than QE which only inflates real estate and double screws the middle class as if their existing problems aren't enough.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer
Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: September 09 2016 at 23:53 |
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All I can say is, many who want to (at the moment) not put too much weight into polls, will also cite every poll that shows Clinton with a big lead, or leading in some crucial state, or using them to show how she will win like 40 states
 So ya know, just wanna keep that in mind....I think following all the polling, and I mean all of them not just cherry picking, and keeping note on trends, and demographics are pretty helpful. Needless to say, time and trends are most important, and I grant in this election there's a bit of the "rules out the window" feeling, especially in regards to Trump. I still maintain my prediction of a 2008-esque victory for Clinton. Just had to throw some water on the Clinton fire
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer
Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 00:44 |
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Oh no doubt. We've beaten this dead horse to death, so I'll just say I think that is all 100% correct. I am sad to say I have not followed it too well, but I swear I read something about a vaguely right wing populist party gaining ground in some German elections, as Merkel's popularity is falling over the immigration issue. If this is true, it's pretty shocking to me since Germany is basically the rock of Europe with their famously cool, level headed people. I almost feel like damn, if even they are folding, like there's truly no hope I want to believe the Democratic Party sees what is happening, and is preparing for it in the long term. They could of course be dismissing of it all, which would be a disaster but it can't be ruled out. Perhaps momentum and $ has them stuck in ways they can't escape from. The GOP has certainly made several misjudgements in the last 8 years, ones that have put them in this hopeless/ugly situation. Wanna believe the Dems are smarter, in terms of having some pulse of the people and understanding of the times, but we can only wait and see! Interesting to hear about India. I wish I knew more about politics outside the North America/Europe sphere. What you say just seems to add fuel to the fire that what's going on is truly global.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 04:17 |
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In a sense, it is not surprising that this would happen in Germany. My father regularly interacts with Germans in the course of work and from what they said, it looks like a lot of people regarded Merkel's open arms embrace of refugees as only a cynical ploy to get in cheap labour. And when Cologne happened, it backfired spectacularly. And this is where I want to ask about a Gadaffi story which I came across as I don't know how true it is. But it seems Gadaffi had warned Tony Blair not to support the coup against him as Libya was like a wall that protected the Mediterranean European countries from North Africa and that if his regime fell, the fundamentalists would thus find easy entry into Europe. I don't know how far it's true but that Obama called Libya his biggest mistake is telling. He didn't say intervening was a mistake but maybe that's only because he can't. One must contemplate what the situation in Syria could have been like had Assad not been an ally of Russia. So...I don't think people are necessarily dumb. They see that this existing set of elected leaders have created a situation which they now stubbornly refuse to fix and in desperation they are turning to anyone and everyone who promises radical solutions to fix it. This holds true for everything - geopolitics, finance, the economy. If liberals don't like the idea of someone like Trump actually having a chance in a Presidential election, maybe they should have done something about these problems when they had eight years to. And there is always going to be a filibustering opposition (wasn't it Southern democrats who filibustered passage of Civil Rights Act in 1964, by the by?) so talk of grinding the GOP to dust as if that would fix all problems is lame (and one party rule is even more dangerous than two party, we Indians can tell you all about that).
It MAY not find an echo everywhere outside NAm and Europe for the reason that India is one of the few countries outside these regions that follows or tries to follow a democratic system of governance based on the Western model and also has a very large number of English speakers (with the result that the elite apes Western trends in politics and culture). But this is not necessarily very comforting in itself because say regions like LatAm have long since yielded to populism. So it only means a tough passage for democracy in the years ahead. The fascination with strongmen like Modi is symptomatic of the breakdown of trust in faceless institutions which are seen, rightly or not, as mounting bureaucratic hurdles to progress and making bad decisions in all their collective wisdom. People don't necessarily want a strongman to wage war on the world (though *horror* they may not mind it); they need him to just muscle good policies through the bureaucracy or to put nitpicky bureaucrats in their place. Of course, since strongmen usually hail from the majority community of the country, it further adds a layer of allure as they (the majority) can use the strongman to remind demanding minorities of their place in society. I am not saying that I agree with that line of thinking but that that is the way the voter's mind works.
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 06:05 |
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state polls are really all that matter now... national polls pointless....and really the election hinges on 4 states. If Clinton holds Co, Wi, Va, and Pa ..she wins.. no matter what happens in Ohio or Florida or even if she doesn't pick off red states N.C or Arizona which she still leads. The tightening of the polls doesn't mean Trump has any more than a very narrow path to victory.. he still has to win Democratic voters to win...and he isn't doing that... he is just bringing home GOP voters... it just means we might not see the landslide we thought we might see. Edited by micky - September 10 2016 at 06:08 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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LearsFool
Prog Reviewer
Joined: November 09 2014 Location: New York Status: Offline Points: 8642 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 09:36 |
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State level elections in the largely rural and tourist heavy northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern concluded with a strong second place showing for the originally Eurosceptic and now heavily anti-immigrant AfD - they beat Merkel's CDU by 1.8 points, and were behind the centre-left SPD by 9.8. Quite the "moral victory", not only trouncing Merkel's party (if only barely) but doing it in the state where her constituency is! The next big test, I hear, are elections in Berlin.
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The T
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 16 2006 Location: FL, USA Status: Offline Points: 17493 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 10:57 |
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Anyway, here's for four more years without Armageddon. We live now one 4-year period at a time. |
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 11:04 |
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 like Germany has never done anything stupid in its history.
Edited by Dean - September 10 2016 at 11:04 |
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What?
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The T
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 16 2006 Location: FL, USA Status: Offline Points: 17493 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 11:17 |
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The only country that has never done anything stupid in its history is The Republic of Dafuquesia
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: September 10 2016 at 11:36 |
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look on the bright side Teo.. if it is halfway close.. the right and the GOP will think they are 'this' close to winning and not mutate and evolve from preaching fear and division along racial lines... and continue to search for those supposed lost white voters that Bush, McCain, Romney, and Trump could not motivate to get out and vote. If one was to be really nasty.. and this is politics.. a battle of good vs. evil... right vs. wrong.. so of course it is... we want the election to be close and not a landslide so GOP leaders will delude themselves to the fact they have to decide between appealing to white racists bigots.. or the emerging minority/majority in this country. they are f**ked if they don't... the trick is... how many elections do they lose before they finally act on it. Oh they know it.. see the 2012 post-mortums... it is just that no one has the guts to say that the 'right' has no clothes.. and no political future in this country other than as back bench bomb throwers and obstructionists. Without moving left.. the GOP will never see the Presidency again... Edited by micky - September 10 2016 at 11:40 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: September 11 2016 at 09:36 |
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spent a large portion.. well ...all morning reading the multiple of articles on the 15th anni of 9-11.
a mix of sorrow. Like most of you.. and pretty much all Americans.. I remember that day as if it were yesterday. We got let out of work early as like everything.. everywhere.. life ground to a halt so we go home and be with our families. I remember sitting in my companies parking lot and was overcome with emotion and crying as I listened to radio broadcasts and in particular this poor distaught man that could not find his wife who worked in the north tower.. but more than that... I still feel anger.. for what came out of 9-11 and how quickly we've forgot.. or worse.. how some in this country never understood the mistakes we made and seem hell bent to repeat. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/9-11-15-years-anniversary-of-shame-214239 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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LearsFool
Prog Reviewer
Joined: November 09 2014 Location: New York Status: Offline Points: 8642 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 13:38 |
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Jill Stein continues her conspiracyathon by calling for a new investigation of 9/11, alleging stonewalling and "distortions and omissions" in the original report. *sigh*
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HackettFan
Forum Senior Member 
Joined: June 20 2012 Location: Oklahoma Status: Offline Points: 7951 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 14:25 |
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Much is being made about Hillary's penchant for privacy most recently with respect to her "late" public release about her pneumonia. Personally, if she does have a penchant for privacy, I admire that. This is really all part of the 'Hillary isn't trustworthy' theme. I don't get that part. Never have. Can anyone explain it?
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A curse upon the heads of those who seek their fortunes in a lie. The truth is always waiting when there's nothing left to try. - Colin Henson, Jade Warrior (Now)
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 14:32 |
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sure.. easy to explain.. when you have no policy ideas that haven't already been discredited or simply found to be idiotic.. and are a ideologically bankrupt party.. you run against the other candidate and since HIllary has polkicy accomplishements and experience aplenty.. you .. they.. are left with only one recourse.
Destroy her personally.... it won't work in the end.. but that is not the same as to say it hasn't been extremely effective. No wonder she is so private... probably with some real trust issues of the press and damn near everyone. Remember 2008. Her campaign had more leaks than any campagin I could remember. This time, she has run a very tight and rock solid campaign. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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HackettFan
Forum Senior Member
Joined: June 20 2012 Location: Oklahoma Status: Offline Points: 7951 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 14:51 |
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^I quite agree with all. But there still seems to be genuine credence given to it in the opinion of some run-of-the-mill people off the street, as incredulous as it seems to me. I know someone who has no computer or iPhone and couldn't really care less about email is nevertheless supposedly all up in arms about her email "scandal". It's more than what gets outwardly professed, I think.
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A curse upon the heads of those who seek their fortunes in a lie. The truth is always waiting when there's nothing left to try. - Colin Henson, Jade Warrior (Now)
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 14:58 |
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come on man... we are talking about the same ignorant misinformed 'half' of this country that didn't run Trump and his ilk out of town for the birtheir movement... blaming Obama for the Isis mess that Bush created by destablizing the middle east... and God knows how many other inane things they throw against the wall.
the death of reason and intelligence by a large segment of the voting population is far more dangerous than wall street.. stupid f**king emails.. or Hillaries physical problems. Her mind is sharp.. that is all that matters to me. but that is not what people want to think... not that they think.. they just parrot what they are told on Fox or talk radio. Sad.. but unfortunately very true. Goes back to the points I tried to make in that other thread. The American voter, and hyper-partisanship are the real problem this country has politically.. not our system.. not even the influence of money. That has been around for a 100 years.. and will be for another 100. What has changed.. and why the system is breaking.. is the American voter has stopped voting with their intellect... and more on emotions (fear) which the right has masterfully pulled since 1988. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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EddieRUKiddingVarese
Forum Senior Member
Joined: February 04 2016 Location: Aust Status: Offline Points: 1802 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 18:16 |
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Trump Sandwich 
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"Everyone is born with genius, but most people only keep it a few minutes"
and I need the knits, the double knits! |
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65440 |
Posted: September 12 2016 at 18:30 |
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^ I fear that combo sounds mighty tasty to a lot of folks, hell it sounds pretty good to me in a cheap lunch kinda way.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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American Politics the 2016 edition
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JJLehto wrote:
