American Politics the 2016 edition

Yeah, PA may be full of white racists, and there are lots, but the solid blue areas should be enough AND as conservative as working class as Pittsburgh is, they are loyal. They are so loyal they continue to vote Democratic even though they have long abandoned union politics  and it's absolutely Clinton country. 

Edited by JJLehto - August 05 2016 at 00:06

JJLehto wrote: As for the GOP on the verge of alienating the Hispanic vote, well yeah Not sure who believes that is conspiracy, it's absolutely fact and Trump has really just accelerated the decline.  Say what we will, Bush was very popular with the group. 2004 he got 44% of the Hispanic vote, all time high for the party.  2006: The GOP and their build a wall nonsense and generally harsh immigration rhetoric blew it all to hell, they strongly lost that vote in the 2006 mid term elections. Kind of a shame for Bush, he never dipped into that cespool and favored pretty sensible immigration legislation, never backed the "round em up, deport" stuff. Alas the damage was done, and they never recovered.  44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. 31% in 2008. 27% in 2012. Thus far I've seen polls range from the low 20s to single digits for Trump, with polling currently in the teens for FL. Yeah.... There's no way around it. Trump's base is working class, lesser educated, white people and he's worked hard to keep it that way Barring some radical change, don't see it changing.

considering the latest Marist poll has Clinton up by 15. I'd say Trump is aiming for single digit (black demographic territory) share of the Latino vote. This election is likely to be over (called) by 7pm election night...

As I noted Brian.. the interesting part perhaps of the remainder of the campaign are the down ballot races. Perhaps the most important aspect remaining if Trump truly has blown this irreparably and I sure don't see a way to recover that doesn't involve Hillary take to twitter start calling Blacks a bunch of n****rs and low lifes and start reminiscing about how much better Amerca was before Latinos starting coming here en masse.

Does the Senate flip....

ummm  does the House flip...

been a lot of chatter that the Senate may, seeing which way the hurricane is blowing, finally relent and take up the Garland nomination.

Shame the Garland guy seems like a nice guy for it was sweet to see Obama pull him off the table prior to the Senate finally agreeing to give him hearning...

in effect telling them...  be careful for what you ask for... let Hillary pick the Justice.. and with a Democratic Senate to roll them through...

JJLehto wrote: As for the GOP on the verge of alienating the Hispanic vote, well yeah Not sure who believes that is conspiracy, it's absolutely fact and Trump has really just accelerated the decline.

no doubt... it would be a tall order to retake the House however...

there is the not so small matter of the civil war within the GOP party itself.  That party has sort of gone completely batsh*t crazy...  there is a substantial disconnect between Washington.. and their voters. One of these days.. and Trump did tap into this.. they'll finally get smart and realize the source of their anger..

not the Muslim American hater in the White House hahah...but a do nothing ...obstructionist Congress....

not likely... but again...  this political year is one where you can throw out the 'norms' .  Much of that comes out of the chaos and disfunction within the GOP. 

well shall see... it does seem Hillary's internals are telling her that the traditonal battleground states are going blue... so I'm reading she is looking to expand the battlefield. Those 3 states are on her radar.

THe first two are obvious...  Arizona, Georgia... two states that are starting the transition from Red to Blue.

Utah?  Well that is an interesting one.  No it is not trending blue longterm obviously haha but in THIS election year and with more money and resources than she needs.. why not for this election it is very winnable. 

Knowing what I do of the Mormon faith ... (10 years of being married into a family of Mormons) ..all Democratic btw. The faith and Party are not incomptable... and parts that might be...  take out the Libertarians as well (social aspects)

I think Utah, with investment into the state, is very winnable for Hillary.

36-34-30....

Final note, no doubt 2016 has been crazy. I'm not ready to throw all the rules out the window yet.

Edited by JJLehto - August 05 2016 at 04:10

This might not be deep analysis but it's so awesome. Most recent polls in regards to  African-American support for Donald Trump: 

LearsFool wrote: The three exceptions the polls have been showing are the aforementioned UT, AZ, GA. It's a matter of who Trump has managed to alienate there, which speaks to demographic changes in AZ and GA and the political order and climate of UT. The political order is fluid, ours young, and with the right parameters a hell of a lot of what we might consider crazy things can happen, it's just a matter of what comes up. So it'd take a hell of a lot more from Cheeto Jesus (maybe pull a Rob Ford?) to open Missouri and Montana back up.

I see Nate Silver has Clinton at 60% chance of winning Georgia. Likely for the black vote severely tilting the numbers.  Has Arizona even money but not as good winning Utah.  Johnson isn't polling well there, as well as one might expect, if he does it sure isn't going to come from Clinton/Democratic voters haha. The only chance Hillary would have to win the state is to have the 60/70% that traditionally vote Republican split and pretty much down the middle.

However not that it is really worth the Democrats time or energy, due to the crushing electoral advantage they have and seem to be expanding upon, with with suitable investment they could perhaps win over the Mormon demographic.  Mormons are a interesting group.  Let's face it, outside of the obvious example of blacks and Native Americans in this country there has no group has more persecuted or discriminated upon. That is reason one why they appear to despise Trump...and have created an opening for Clinton to exploit. Will she? Who knows again she doesn't need the state or to win over the Mormons and gain.. what.. Utah and Idaho?

 Why do they hate Trump.  I think they have a deep seated resentment against political bullies and bigotry. It strikes to the heart of what they feel as Mormons and how they have been treated themselves. More than that... Mormons are particularly patriotic and have a great love of this country. I think that more so than any religious connection with the Religious Right had made Utah and the overwhelming Mormon vote in that state reliably Republican.  If the two conventions are taken at face value for what each Party represents you can see which Party is proud of its country and loves it for what makes it great... and another that hates what the country has become and is filled with hate and anger.

While no one would argue Utah is trending blue, or Hillary will win it, the point is the conditions do exist through Trump to make inroads into one of the most staunch of Republican demographics. One that built over time.. could pay dividends. As I said this morning.. an interesting state to watch ...


Edited by micky - August 05 2016 at 14:30