American Politics the 2016 edition

micky wrote: on second thought... lets see what the map looks like moving Wisconson and Virginia to the decided column and move Colorado to undecided. I know Virginia obviously better than I do Colorado... ie. I'd be willing to bet my paycheck on Virginia staying blue.. I wouldn't do that with Colorado. So if that were the case and both Wisconson and Virginia stay blue..  pretty much given's at this point and time considering history and demographics. that leaves 11 winning combinations for Trump and 2 ties. one thing that jumps out... if he loses Florida.. it is game over if he loses Pennsylvania... and it is strongly likely he will.  The Democrats are looking at a nearly half million vote advantage in the Philadelphia area. He has to win Colorado or it is game over. That is why I strongly suspect GOP leaders and donors.. have privately written off the election.  Realistically.. Trump  has no realistic path to 270. He does have to sweep Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to have any chance. Possible.. but HIGHLY unlikely. Even if he did sweep all 3... if Wisconsin and Virginia go blue Hillary STILL has 3 winning combinations...almost as many as Trump's 5 and note.. if Colorado went blue... that becomes 2 combinations for Hillary.. 2 for Trump

I'm not sure what you think Kelvin.. I see 4 states really in play. Can go either way...

Pennsylvania would have been here.. but obviously the very succesful convention, or judging on the polls.. the dumpster fire of a GOP one, put the critical Philly suburbs into the Democratic column.  That is a half a million vote advantage..  Trump can win.. but not likely..

the 4 I see

obviously Ohio... the one battleground state that I think is trending red. Even if is still voting Democratic More on that later, for that is for the working class that are in the GOP camp ... for now...

Iowa..

Florida...

North Carolina.. a fascinating state A red state going where Virginia has already... transitioning from Red to Blue.  2008, 2012... both elections it was the 2nd closest state in terms of results.  Demographic changes and continued Yankee migration into that state will turn it blue before too long.

to be followed I think.. perhaps in the next 8 to 12 years by Georgia and Arizona.. going from Red to Blue.

but as we showed earlier.. it doesn't matter... PA + Colorado+ Nevada.. along with Va and Wisconsin means 270 for Clinton



Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 12:13

Glad Trump is being extra reamed over the coals for his Khan comments, who has hit back as well saying Trump has a "black soul" Love it

I mean long term, NC may flip for 16 but less sure long term. Maybe, I can attest seems 1/3 of people I knew moved/is moving to NC in recent years lol I can see it, but no GA or AZ. Those are some deeply conservative states especially AZ, despite the huge influx of Hispanics. But yeah sans recession things will be fine. Like I said: 2008. Indiana probably wont flip Dem this time (nothing to do with Pence) but maybe others will that almost did in 08 like Missouri or Montana. Obama did very well in Montana 2008... I think Johnson can win enough there to tip it. Missouri is possible to go for the more moderate Clinton than Obama. I know PA keeps getting put in the tossup territory and I just don't know. I know the state well there is LOTS of white racists, lots of Trump land, and I know the Pittsburgh area while strongly democratic is actually fairly conservative and a bit racist. I do worry their loyalty will finally run out this election but I think int the end the democratic core, plus moderates and people simply staying home will keep PA blue.

I haven't been to Arizona in many years so I can't really attest to what is going on there.. and try my damnest to stay away from anything in Georgia other than my beloved Savannah.

Just what I have heard.. but again.. does it really matter.  Not really...short term. Long term? We shall see..

a decisive electoral advantage might well come in hand in 2024.... when you know as well as I do the Democrats will bring out a candidate much further to the left than any since the days when I was playing with my penis and sucking my thumb... again.. Hillary is setting the table.. 2024 is when the Progressive Revolution kicks off..   The interesting question... who will oppose them.  If the GOP splits as I think it might.. we will be looking a quarter century or more of Democratic Presidents and they can nominate a 'Socialist' and the opposition still would not be able to defeat her.

TeleStrat wrote: I'm not sure I put much faith in early predictions this time around. If I've heard it once on cable news I've heard it a hundred times that this election is unlike any that this country has ever seen. You pretty much have to throw the text book out the window and just take it day by day for the next few months.

oh definitely enjoying it. Day by Day As long as Trump continues to campaign like a fool... do you really think he will be able to turn 8 of 10 democratic leaning state red?  Sure it is early.. but always fun to speculate and Trump isn't doing anything to make early predictions risky IMO.


Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 13:51

And I yell a recession is gunna happen within the next year or two. How Clinton handles it would be huuuge. If she does take a more people first approach with dedication to jobs and wages than we may survive. If its another 2008 type response, bad news Democrats.

JJLehto wrote: And I yell a recession is gunna happen within the next year or two. How Clinton handles it would be huuuge. If she does take a more people first approach with dedication to jobs and wages than we may survive. If its another 2008 type response, bad news Democrats.

It will be interesting to see the internal dynamics of a Hillary administration.  Does she defer to the Warren faction the Senate as far as economic policy. It could be the price she is having to pay for their support... all it took was one Ted Cruz moment from Bernie and yes... we'd likely be talking about President Trump.

JJLehto wrote: Well I wish I shared your optimism for 2024.

you are watching the same train wreck as I am that is the Republican Party... don't assume.. that their substanial internal problems don't disappear when Trump goes. They have a huge problem, potentially a fatal one, and to fix it.. they may have to burn down the party.

That is the story you don't read.  Look no further than the head scratching actions of Ryan. He knows it, they all do.  They are on a high speed train going straight off the cliff.. and they don't know how to stop it.

so yes.. color me very optimism for the long term prospects of a counter Reagan Revolution.. what I am calling the Warren Revolution. 

micky wrote: JJLehto wrote: Well I wish I shared your optimism for 2024.  you are watching the same train wreck as I am that is the Republican Party... don't assume.. that their substanial internal problems don't disappear when Trump goes. They have a huge problem, potentially a fatal one, and to fix it.. they may have to burn down the party. That is the story you don't read.  Look no further than the head scratching actions of Ryan. He knows it, they all do.  They are on a high speed train going straight off the cliff.. and they don't know how to stop it. so yes.. color me very optimism for the long term prospects of a counter Reagan Revolution.. what I am calling the Warren Revolution.

Wait till ya see my next post when I talk about the under 30 voters. A GOP implosion, having it all burn down could always rejuvenate them. If the Dems don't capitalize in the void..well I'll just pray they do. There is a chance to strengthen the party for a whole generation or two, like the New Deal, they better not squander it just to please a few wealthy donors and the finance sector. Not that we'd survive anyway. The leeches can only suck so much from the country before it dies, and thus they do to. The extreme short sightedness our political and business leaders have shown for several decades boggle my mind. 

Edited by JJLehto - July 31 2016 at 14:29