Europeans' opinions on UK's EU Referendum...

They surely can't allow Britain to constitute a "success story" of country leaving the Union for other states to imitate, can they.
They will make sure that the Uk suffers a lot

JJLehto wrote: Luca Pacchiarini wrote: They surely can't allow Britain to constitute a "success story" of country leaving the Union for other states to imitate, can they. They will make sure that the Uk suffers a lot Danger of course being trade is a two way street, and the UK isn't some little place. Punishing the UK would mean punishing themselves...either in losing access to their economy or if something truly crazy was done like sanctions, well in the EU or not it's still an integrated global economy. Weakening the UK means weakening all of Europe, least on paper.  Would be a very dangerous game, and like I said I fear Schauble/Germany may have some sincerity... They sure took 0 kindness on Greece and in fact imposed harsher austerity on them after their referendum to refuse than was originally planned.  But hey seems most people/places have forgotten common sense economics.  By the way, sorry for being slow but seems a second Scottish referendum is "highly likely" I dont know, seems unrealistic to me, any chance there actually is one? If so, any chance they may vote this time to leave? What sort of stock market chaos, and damage to the UK economy, would this create?

The U.K. Parliament will not legislate to hold a second Scottish referendum. As for the Scottish Parliament voting to hold one, this is a bit more tricky than analysts suppose. At the elections held in May, the SNP won the most seats, but do not have an overall majority. Basically, the Conservatives will agree to a vote over their dead bodies, and I somehow doubt that Labour will change its mind and agree, loathing, as they do, the SNP.

Therefore, a referendum, in the short term, is highly unlikely. The SNP will campaign on the "damage" done to Scotland as a result of those English and Welsh voting to leave the EU, relentlessly, and, I suspect, seek to use this to push for a clear majority at the next Scottish elections., and, this, hold a second referendum in, say, five to six years time.

All straightforward so far. What, though, will muddy the waters a bit is that at the next Scottish election, the Nationalists will have been the Government in Scotland for two terms. Governments in situ tend to lose, not gain, support.

EDIT. Brian, thinking about this further, I did forget the role of The Green Party in the Scottish Parliament. Although small in number, they are ostensibly in favour of independence and could, in theory, back The SNP in voting for a second referendum, and, together, they would have a majority in Parliament.

I do, though, still think it unlikely in the short term. Sturgeon will not call for a vote unless she is absolutely confident of winning one, and this is not the sure fire certainty that many think it is. Turnout was not as high in Scotland as it was in England, and I also have a deep suspicion that many Nationalist supporters in Scotland voted remain "betting" that England, as happened, voted to come out specifically on the "promise" that they would get another shot at independence. It is not a certainty that those Scots who are not Nationalist, but voted remain, would then automatically vote to come out of the U.K.

As I have said before, interesting times lie ahead.

Edited by lazland - June 25 2016 at 05:26

JJLehto wrote: Danger of course being trade is a two way street, and the UK isn't some little place. Punishing the UK would mean punishing themselves...either in losing access to their economy or if something truly crazy was done like sanctions, well in the EU or not it's still an integrated global economy. Weakening the UK means weakening all of Europe, least on paper.  Would be a very dangerous game, and like I said I fear Schauble/Germany may have some sincerity... They sure took 0 kindness on Greece and in fact imposed harsher austerity on them after their referendum to refuse than was originally planned.  But hey seems most people/places have forgotten common sense economics.

Boris Johnson reminds me of a Astrid Lindgren character.

You may laugh at the balanced budget plans, but once Greece comes out of the other side of this, it'll be clean as a whistle. Just a shame that most Greeks will have committed suicide by then.

Does anyone have any recent suicide rate figures for Greece? Probably not. No budget for statistics, I fear.


Edited by npjnpj - June 25 2016 at 06:30

Dean wrote: At the beginning of this thread I said "Ple<span style="line-height: 18.2px; : rgb248, 248, 252;">ase note that there is a </span>Brexit<span style="line-height: 18.2px; : rgb248, 248, 252;">¹ poll for UK people to rant about whether to Remain or Leave and frankly, I couldn't care less about the knee-jerk thoughts of people who are actually entitled to vote in this referendum. </span><span style="line-height: 18.2px; : rgb248, 248, 252;">If I wanted to join that debate I would have back in March - I didn't then and I don't now ... </span><span style="line-height: 18.2px; : rgb248, 248, 252;">So, I would like to hear the thoughts of the European members of this site about whether the UK should remain in the EU or whether it should go.</span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">" and I appreciate that all Brits respected that and waited until the result was declared before chipping in. Cheers.</span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> </span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;">Yesterday we woke up to the situation where the majority had spoken in favour of leaving the EU. This was only the third national referendum in UK history (EEC, AV and EU) and by far the closest. 52% is a majority but it is not quite the clear majority that Steve has called it, the reality is that just under half the country does not want to leave the EU and just over half does. The difference is </span>1,269,501 voters, (<2% of the total population or roughly the population of Surrey). But in a democracy the majority vote wins and that is as it should be. Through the same "majority wins" rule we have a Tory government that 63% of the country voted against so it's something we all accept and have to live with, the 48% who voted to stay in the EU have no choice but to follow the wishes of the majority.  That does not mean we have to be happy about it, just as it does not mean that the supporters of Labour, The Liberal Democrats, UKIP, The Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru have to be happy with a Tory government. Nor does it mean that we must suddenly change our views or be pals with people we disagree with just because the majority has spoken, but more of that later. So yesterday the 48% who lost were not happy - we were disappointed and angry, as is our right in a democracy - we are frustrated not just because we lost but for a number of reasons, some of them irrational but most of them rational - <span style="line-height: 18.2px;">I have seen many FB posts claiming "bad losers" and counter claims of "bad winners" and that is frankly as pathetic as most of the bickering that marred this referendum throughout. Yesterday I demand my right to be disappointed and angry and vented that anger towards the self-serving politicians who twisted the campaign by playing career politics. I have never liked Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Micheal Gove, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway or Daniel Hannan, and I don't care for </span><span style="line-height: 18.2px;">David Cameron, Gideon Osbourne or Jeremy Corbin come to that. </span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> </span> <blockquote style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"> <span style="line-height: 1.4;">"</span>I am devastated and I am angry. Today we woke to a deeply divided country. <span style="line-height: 1.4;">Nigel Farage’s vision for Britain has won this vote, but it is not a vision I accept. </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">An institution that we built, that delivered peace, that promoted equality, kept us safe and opened the doors of opportunity, will no longer play part of Britain’s future. </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">With this vote, the very fabric of our country has changed.  </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">The whole fabric of Europe has been changed. </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">Even though the vote was close, the majority of British people want us to leave. </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">But we refuse to give up on our beliefs. </span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">Our fight for an open, optimistic, hopeful, diverse and tolerant Britain is needed now more than ever.</span><span style="line-height: 1.4;">" </span> Those words were spoken by Tim Farron (who?), but they pretty much reflected my feelings yesterday. <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> Many of us losers rapidly went through the 5-stages of grief as we watched the pound plummet and billions of dollars magically vanish from the stock markets as the speculative vultures swooped in and reaped the benefits of the resulting political and economic uncertainty. Everyone knew this was going to happen and it came as no surprise, so now we play the waiting game to see whether a recovery is going to happen and how long that will take if it does. Nothing about that is quite as certain as the prediction that it would fall in the first place because this is just the beginning - the true ramifications of this have yet to be felt because what follows is going to be a lot worse before it even begins to get better. That too is not idle speculation, it is an inevitability of change.</span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> </span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;">The 48% do not know how this is going to happen or what will happen, and neither do the 52% nor any of the politicians who sit in the Commons or in Brussels or anywhere else. But the 52% need us because whatever you think is going to happen, you cannot do it without the rest of us. And if the poll demographics mean anything then the indications are the 48% comprises of more of the young, the educated and the professionals than the 52% does... sure that's a potentially contentious and possibly insulting thing to say but even if everything was equal, the country still needs all the young, educated and professional people to make this uncertain future work however they voted on Thursday, not just 52% of them.</span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> </span> <div style="text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 1.4;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;"> </span> <span style="line-height: 1.4;">People who say that Europe needs us are being naive and that worries me. Without our sizeable contribution to the EU budget they have no need or desire to spend their money on buying our good even if the drop in the pound has made our exports cheaper (what the hell do we have left to sell them? - we don't have a manufacturing industry). Sure they'll want to sell us stuff, at a price, but our need is greater than theirs. I work in the Space Industry and that means getting subcontract work from the European Space Agency (ESA) and their European contractors, it was a hard-fight to win that business in the first place. They do not give EU tax-payers money to non-EU companies, just as NASA does not give American tax-payers money to non-American companies. My future for the next five to ten years looks pretty grim unless I consider all the options, such as emigrating to a country where my specifics kills can be used, be that somewhere in the EU or to the USA (which is why I'm so concerned about the gun-issue over there), but honestly I'm too old for all that crap but cannot afford to retire. Cheers. </span>

As ever, a thoughtful and thought provoking post, Dean.

Firstly, I am more than happy to confirm it was merely a majority, not a "clear" one. A poor choice of words on my part.

My interest in all of this is, actually, very much as a political anorak, in that, sadly, I find all of this rather fascinating. In terms of the result itself, I am rather ambivalent. Although I voted out, for reasons which do not bear repeating here, I also am of the opinion that we get screwed by whomever is in power in Westminster, this borne from too many years of working for them

A last thought from me before taking my son down the local for some brunch. There is a possible scenario that has not been mentioned yet, but one which I think is, actually, a possibility once all the fuss has died down.

It is, I believe, a distinct possibility that a "new" government (with, or without, a general election) will enter into serious negotiations with a chastened European bureaucracy which results in a distinct trading arrangement, or more like the EEC we originally joined, but with a clear cut off from the political and legal aspects of the EU, which none of us voted for.

This would depend very much on the attitudes of other European people's. I think it is at least a possibility that the UK referendum has stirred up enough people and politicians on the continent to realise that the shift to a political union is dead in the water, and there might then be a move to save a Pan European project based on economic and cultural cooperation, rather than a "superstate".

The political establishment, in Europe, UK, USA, ignore at their peril the very real disenchantment, disconnection, and anger which has resulted from the shift to economic globalisation and centralisation, which basically benefits the super rich behind their corporations.

It may well be that the vote on Thursday might, just might, have a beneficial outcome in the longer term, and I hope you and I could agree on that.

What I will make clear to others reading and contributing to this thread (this is not directed at Dean, or other thoughtful contributors) is that this post is NOT an argument in favour of far right demagogues and fascists, who I have spent a lifetime fighting. What it is is discussing a possible outcome I could certainly live with, and, I believe, a majority of people in Britain and Europe could happily live with.

Politics and politicians need to connect again, and understand, and fight for, ordinary working people such as us. Let us hope that this is the outcome.

npjnpj wrote: "but when I look at the likes of Schauble, I wonder if realpolitik isn't sometimes, if only sometimes, better than ideology" I don't quite get that. Care to explain?

To all PA'ers in other EU countries, 16 million of us voted to stay with you (and probably many more who would have had they realised the Brexiters would win).  I am saddened by the discussion above; that this result will spark negative consequences.  There is a petition to rerun the referendum under more democratic rules (I don't care what anyone says about this - we saw a perversion of democracy on Thursday) and protests are already taking place in London (which wants to declare UDI and stay in the EU - and good for them).

I would tend to agree on the whole, but the petition has already reached the threshold for which it must be discussed by Parliament so it is 'democratic' in that sense and that will happen.  At the end of the day, nearly half the country want to stay in the EU (London, Scotland, Northern Ireland emphatically so) and our voice has been silenced. 

lazland wrote: As ever, a thoughtful and thought provoking post, Dean. Firstly, I am more than happy to confirm it was merely a majority, not a "clear" one. A poor choice of words on my part.

Edited by Dean - June 25 2016 at 07:52