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I think the more pressing issue is what happens to Northern Ireland, they also voted to stay in the EU and they will now share a land-border with an EU country. Closing that border will have serious implications to the Anglo-Irish agreement that brokered the fragile peace in the province.
Certainly an intriguing situation.
I have no idea the mechanism/timeline for this but surely there must be a way to figure out a solution?
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 03:00
JJLehto wrote:
All very excellent points Roger.
Boy, I have railed against the EU, and I do think there are many issues with it, and while I do get the anger, frustration and desperation I have to admit didn't actually think this would happen. Guess like the pundits I made an assumption and am eating my words. It's kind of sad to see so many people turning their backs on each other and wanting to wall off. This is not just UK I mean, it's happening all over and certainly here in the states.
The knee jerk will be bad, markets tumbling and I hear the Dow will open the day already in the toilet but we shall see how things shake out. What I am curious about is, besides potential economic ramifications, what about other "exits"? I'd imagine France at the least is gunna want a referendum?
My father works with Europeans a lot and an English acquaintance of his said he was voting leave and also that his friends in Denmark and Sweden were watching the UK referendum (so if UK voted leave maybe these countries follow suit). Worst case scenario is the entire postwar multilateral org-led order is upended. Because if EU gets broken up, it indicates a rejection of economic integration and free trade. So orgs like WTO could also be threatened. Of course that's the worst case scenario. We have to wait and see how it unfolds.
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 03:14
Hopefully the rest of the EU will re-group and stand together. It will certainly shake things up a lot because they've just lost the third largest contributor to their budget and that is going to hurt all the member countries financially.
Boy, I have railed against the EU, and I do think there are many issues with it, and while I do get the anger, frustration and desperation I have to admit didn't actually think this would happen. Guess like the pundits I made an assumption and am eating my words. It's kind of sad to see so many people turning their backs on each other and wanting to wall off. This is not just UK I mean, it's happening all over and certainly here in the states.
The knee jerk will be bad, markets tumbling and I hear the Dow will open the day already in the toilet but we shall see how things shake out. What I am curious about is, besides potential economic ramifications, what about other "exits"? I'd imagine France at the least is gunna want a referendum?
My father works with Europeans a lot and an English acquaintance of his said he was voting leave and also that his friends in Denmark and Sweden were watching the UK referendum (so if UK voted leave maybe these countries follow suit). Worst case scenario is the entire postwar multilateral org-led order is upended. Because if EU gets broken up, it indicates a rejection of economic integration and free trade. So orgs like WTO could also be threatened. Of course that's the worst case scenario. We have to wait and see how it unfolds.
Hmm, yeah I know we've discussed before the issue with a monetary union that lacks a central mechanism for fiscal policy. All the 50 states are bound by the US dollar, but there's at least a central gov to somewhat counter act that. Europe, far as I know please anyone correct me if I'm wrong, lacks that so each is on their own..while still having their hands tied.
One way to hold things together may be to develop such a thing? It of course comes with its own issues...here a red state can cut taxes and services, because Uncle Sam can step in with its own aid to cover the gap, BUT Uncle Sam is really states like New Jersey, New York, California...states that give more to the federal gov than they receive, so us in affluent high tax NJ help Mr Tea Party in Kansas get away with his slashing From what I gather, many in the UK felt this type of pressure, an earlier picture was a great example, so it's not exactly easy to willingly give up more sovereignty when many Europeans may already feel jipped.
I do think some stronger central force is needed, so Germany isn't the de facto central government of Europe...and trade would have to perhaps happen as a bloc so no more trade wars between Euro countries.
Hopefully the shock of this will have an upside and Europe does pull together, tries to hammer out some reforms, instead of pulling apart.
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 05:17
JJLehto wrote:
Dean wrote:
Icarium wrote:
Will UK part with Gibraltar is the big question
They voted 95.9% in favour of remaining in Europe, they should be granted that wish.
Ah but does that mean Scotland and Northern Ireland should be parted with?
Perhaps but Scotland and Northern Island weren't quite as emphatic about remaining as Gibraltar was. A greater percentage of Londoners voted remain than Scots or Northern Irish so if we're talking about splitting up the country then the ancient Kingdom of Middlesex ought to be the first to be granted independence.
Across the UK this referendum was a 52:48 split vote compared to a 38:62 split in Scotland - Nicola Sturgeon has called that "unequivocal" but since over a third of Scots wanted out I say she's being presumptive.
By comparison the Scottish Independence referendum was a 45:55 split vote, which like the EU referendum isn't an unequivocal or emphatic vote one way or the other - either way just under half the country is going to be pissed off about the result.
Unfortunately all these things are fuelled by historical and deeply ingrained hate and distrust that has little basis or validity in modern reality. And that's too depressing to even think about at this particular moment in time. Frankly, if we could eradicate nationalism, patriotism and jingoism the world would be a far better place to live in.
Icarium wrote:
uniting the ireland
That's not going to happen, at least I cannot see it happening in my lifetime.
Joined: October 03 2008
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 05:56
Good job, British voters: with your stupid shenanigans, now the far-right-wing French party Front National is going to show off its huge boner on every TV political show, annoying us with their "Frexit" nonsense!
Really, thanks again to you! I just hope that the Dutches and the Austrians won't join the dance. Tssk, tssk.
Joined: March 19 2008
Location: Sweden
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 06:08
Depressing.
And I must say, this has been an example of extraordinarily bad leadership. Throwing crap and lies at each other instead of serving facts and reason. The campains have been utterly awful from both sides, shame on them.
And as an answer to Roger upthread; No, Sweden aren't leaving any day soon. Those who want a swexit are mostly clowns on the left and right fringes.
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Posted: June 24 2016 at 06:16
Bad day for Britain and Europe should case a major shake up in both. I'd be fine with that if the leaders of the breakup weren't such racist idiots. The ruling elite have misjudged how much they are mistrusted. This certainly foreshadows the upcoming US election
Ian
Host of the Post-Avant Jazzcore Happy Hour on Progrock.com
Good job, British voters: with your stupid shenanigans, now the far-right-wing French party Front National is going to show off its huge boner on every TV political show, annoying us with their "Frexit" nonsense!
Really, thanks again to you! I just hope that the Dutches and the Austrians won't join the dance. Tssk, tssk.
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Europeans' opinions on UK's EU Referendum...
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Dean wrote:
From what I gather, many in the UK felt this type of pressure, an earlier picture was a great example, so it's not exactly easy to willingly give up more sovereignty when many Europeans may already feel jipped. 
I just hope that the Dutches and the Austrians won't join the dance.
